New Russian Roundup
In my earlier post this morning I wrote that I agreed with Larry Johnson’s assessment of Putin’s latest offer to negotiate. The terms for negotiating correspond to Russia’s minimum war goals. Beyond that, however, LJ strongly suggested that the expected US rejection of Russia’s terms would likely mark the beginning of a new phase in Russia’s war.
This assessment makes particular sense in light of the legal fact—and remember always that Putin places great store on legality—that Zelensky is no longer in any sense a legitimate head of state, his term having ended with no new elections. I’m not an expert of any sort in international law, but my guess is that this fact could put the Russian Special Military Operation on a drastically new footing. The forms of legality under international law may be particularly important for Putin in discussing any new plans with fellow BRICS members, such as China and Iran.
In his latest post LJ also quotes Newsweek’s account of Putin’s statement, which is pretty stark when it comes to the European statement of intent to rob Russia—theft will not go unpunished, said Putin. Note, too, that Putin sets preconditions for negotiations. He is clearly speaking from what he, a legendarily cautious leader, considers a position of overwhelming strength—given the possibility of what he himself refers to as “tragedy” for all. That sense of strength is reflected also in his bald statement that the Western, i.e., the US, security model for the world is “collapsing.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Friday that the “selfishness and hypocrisy of Western countries” had led to a “dangerous turn of events” and the world was “close to the point of no return.”. . . .
“Calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme adventurism of Western politicians. They either do not understand the scale of the threat they themselves create, or they are simply obsessed with the belief in their own impunity and their own exclusivity. Both can turn into a tragedy.”
He stated that the West had committed “theft” of Russian assets, and threatened punishment as a result.
He said, “Despite all the chicanery, theft will certainly remain theft. And it will not go unpunished.”
Putin also claimed to officials that the “Western model” of global security is collapsing. He said that this “needs to be essentially created anew.” He said that he is open to talks with everyone, including NATO.
Again, Putin’s call—demand, if you prefer—for a negotiated new security architecture for Europe is not new. Note in what follows, that Putin is not talking about any ceasefire along the line of conflict. He is explicitly demanding as a precondition for the beginning of any negotiations that Ukraine withdraw from all occupied Russian territories as defined by the results of the referendums. What this does is put paid to any notion that the Dnieper River would ever serve as a new boundary at any point—Russia has staked its claim to the portions of Kherson Oblast that are on the west bank of the Dnieper and are within easy striking range of Odessa.
Putin stated that Russia would be ready to enter talks as soon as “tomorrow” to negotiate an end to conflict in Ukraine, provided that Ukrainian troops are withdrawn from several key regions. He also demanded that Ukraine give up all plans to join NATO, saying that the “moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed” would be on the West if the proposal was rejected.
Putin said: “I want to emphasize, it must be from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders as they existed at the time of their incorporation into Ukraine.
“As soon as Kyiv says they’re ready for such a decision and start the real withdrawal of forces from these regions and officially declare rejection of plans to join NATO, from our side, immediately, literally the same minute, will come an order to stop the fire and start negotiations.
This is a very tough line, but no more than was to be expected based on what has transpired since the end of the Cold War. In fact, from that perspective it’s a generous offer.
Now for some interesting new developments which, if true, could point in the direction of a gradual but meaningful Russian escalation—against the US. This isn’t totally confirmed, it’s speculative, but there’s been a lot of buzz in this regard for the last week, at least. I’ll preface these tweets by stating that the drone in question, the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton, is the most sophisticatedd drone in the US inventory and has only become operational since 2020. It has not previously been deployed in the Black Sea. It’s also easily the most expensive US drone, at ~$310 million dollars, making it over twice as expensive as the Global Hawk, by my rough and ready calculations.
MQ-4C Triton Surveillance Drone Downed?
There are emerging reports that an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone has "crashed" into the Black Sea south of Crimea.
One can be certain it didn't encounter "bad weather" nor a flock of geese while flying above 50,000 ft altitude.
Lots of conflicting accounts about this surveillance drone. Some claim it "went dark" for a while then reappeared. Some claim it made it back to its base at Sigonella, but may have had a problem off the Sicilian coast. Odd this is now the second such event in the past few weeks.
Note that last. What does he mean by “such event”? He means the drone “went dark”.
The "reports" I've seen all show the same screenshot from FlightRadar24 for the aircraft BLKCAT6 without any details on the timeframe for the screenshot...
I've checked and can see this flight from this afternoon which ended with the aircraft heading back to it's base...
As for the "reports" pointing out that the aircraft BLKCAT6 was broadcasting SQUAWK 7700 [emergency onboard], this occurred just before it's decent back to base, far away from the Black Sea...
Sam Lockhart @soil_owner
I was intrigued when I saw the initial reports so I went to watch FR24, it popped back up to the west of last known about 40 minutes after the fact.
Either they're flipping the transponder on and off, or the Russians are jamming ADSB for reasons I don't understand.
8:57 PM · Jun 14, 2024
Malfunction? Russian electronic warfare?
When reality intrudes into the West’s fantasyland, it’s gonna hurt. Big time. The sight of the two pretend leaders I Italy slobbering over each other and announcing their ten year commitment to each other was something else.
Hundreds of millions for a drone? Hard to believe this thing could cost more than an F35? The MIC needs to go on a diet.