Morning Update: Ukraine Offensive, Politics
There’s a fair amount of actual news ‘out there’ today, so I’ll try to sketch out the lay of the land. I don’t generally attempt to get into ‘granular’ coverage of warfare—I lack the expertise to do anything beyond evaluating expert analysts, plus there’s no way to do anything beyond that if you immerse yourself. Today, this morning, there appears to be a bit of a pause as well as some new information, so let’s catch up a bit.
Mikael Valtersson offers us a morning summary that’s brief and to the point, sticking to the overall picture of what’s happening:
An excellent and most valid question from @RadarFennec
He also included a very good map of the Russian defence lines. Thank you Fennec. My take is the same as in some comments. It's a good consolation prize to show the world that UkrAF had some success during the counteroffensive, if they fail elsewhere. Vremivka salient was an easy target, lightly defended by RuAF, bad supplyroads and with Ukrainian forces on two sides (west and north). But it's eventual capture will not change anything else than a levelling of the frontline for both sides. The frontline will then be as everywhere on the southfront, with the main Russian defenceline 10 km behind the new frontline and the same distance to the Sea of Azov as elsewhere.
Quote Tweet
Fennec_Radar
@RadarFennec
Replying to @MikaelValterss1
I really wonder about the logic of attacking this salient with the forces they have. Even if they manage to capture it, there is only a single paved road along a river valley that leads to no major transport hubs. Like where do you go after you capture it?
To expand on Valtersson’s explanation, it appears that this was essentially an attempt at a PR success against a lightly defended target. It has fallen on its face.
That leaves the state of the narrative at the cope level. Early on we posted discussions on the shortcomings of Bradleys for purposes of the war on Russia. Nobody should be surprised that what we all knew would happen has happened—which strongly suggests that, as Valtersson argues, this entire offensive has a political endgame purpose (persuade Russia to accept, in effect, a partition of Ukraine leaving a NATO rump Ukraine) rather than a defensible military purpose, i.e., defensible in terms of the human cost to Ukraine. Further, Schryver makes this good point: The Russians must be pinching themselves—they went into their Special Military Operation with the goal of demilitarizing Ukriane, but now they’re also demilitarizing NATO.
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
Cope to the nth degree.
At any rate, I have no doubt the Russians would welcome the US to ship their entire inventory of Bradley and MaxxPro units to Ukraine, with mountains of ammo to supply them.
The largely unforeseen demilitarization of NATO continues apace ...
Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
Plenty of M2 Bradleys to replace losses in Ukraine. We have a surplus. People talk like they're exquisite weapon systems available in tiny numbers or something. Losing a dozen or so in the 1st week of hitting a reinforced Russian front hundreds of miles long is a win, not loss.
4:31 PM · Jun 12, 2023
Mihail Sadova
@MihailSadova
The problem is the Bradley’s burn like a torch after being hit. The soldiers within have little chance to survive.
So US may send hundreds and thousands of Bradley but I don’t know if Ukraine can keep the pace with the soldiers replacement.
Next, MoA has an excellent compilation of current thinking on the Kakhovka Dam, gathered from Western MSM. Spoiler alert: This may be another UK op (recall the discussion of Sunak in DC yesterday, promising to be the US’s provacateur in chief) and, if so, is another terror attack:
Battles Rage as Ukraine Tries to Retake Russian-Occupied Territory - New York Times - June 9, 2023
Experts say the dam, which was held by Russian forces, was probably destroyed by an intentional explosion within the massive structure. They say an explosion from the outside, like a missile strike, or a structural failure caused by earlier war damage and high water spilling over the top, were conceivable causes but far less likely.
But, these experts may be working from a too simple understanding of the mechanics of missile strikes—implying that all missile strikes are identical in operation and are “external” rather than “internal.” They’re correct about “internal” but there’s more than one way to skin that cat. Note, too, however, that these experts discount the narrative of “structural failure,” which was popular for a few days. Three days later, after this first article, the NYT repeats these views:
Ukraine Claims More Small Advances in Counteroffensive, but No Breakthroughs - New York Times - June 12, 2023
Engineering and munitions experts have said that the dam was probably breached by an explosion from the inside, not by shelling or other external attacks, and not by a structural failure.
But MoA reminds us that the UK brought a long range strike capability to Ukraine:
Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say - CNN - May 12, 2023
The United Kingdom has delivered multiple “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving the nation a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
And MoA then cites Wikipedia to explain how the Storm Shadow can be used to attack hardened or industrial strength targets with an internal explosion doing the heavy work:
The Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead features an initial penetrating charge to clear soil or enter a bunker, then a variable delay fuze to control detonation of the main warhead. Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets.
Would a dam qualify as a high value strategic target for which the BROACH warhead was designed? I think so. I can’t swear to it, but I think so. So MoA turns to the Federation of American Scientists:
"Two stage warhead punctures external shell, then detonates inside target"
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Storm Shadow - Federation of American Scientists
When engaging hard targets, such as Hardened Aircraft Shelters or bunkers, the missile will strike the target at the estimated optimum dive angle, selected during mission planning. On impact the detonation sequence commences. The precursor charge will perforate the target structure, and any soil covering, and the follow through penetrator warhead will continue to penetrate inside the target to be detonated after a preselectable fuse delay.
Perhaps not conclusive, but it appears to be a viable theory. The consensus that has emerged is that the narrative of Russia blowing the dam doesn’t make sense. So here’s another narrative, and it shows considerable explanatory power at this point.
Now, what does this remind you of? You win the hearty handshake and pat on the back if you said: The Roman Empire! But this is us:
Desperate Army, Air Force Recruit Immigrants With Promise Of Rapid Citizenship
Desperate to overcome recruiting shortfalls, the US Army and Air Force are making a major push to recruit immigrants, using the enticement of citizenship granted in a matter of weeks.
The Marine Corps is the only branch that's on track to make its 2023 recruiting goal. The Army is coming off its worst recruiting performance in decades, and its surveys have determined that young Americans' fear of death and mental illness are the biggest reasons they won't sign up. On top of that, it's estimated that only 23% of 17- to 24-year-olds meet physical, mental and moral requirements for Army service without obtaining a waiver.
Break out that late stage empire check list:
✅Open debauchery celebrated in the streets
✅Endless wars meant to enrich only the elites
✅Leaders increasingly insane/senile/brain damaged
✅Military recruiting immigrants to replace citizens https://t.co/nDuDNtClSM— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) June 11, 2023
The dismal situation has the Army and Air Force setting its sights on legal immigrants, luring them with not only the standard pitches about training and education benefits, but also with the promise of taking a major shortcut to American citizenship.
I’ll conclude this military section with Brian Berletic’s summary of his latest video—it’s a cold shower for reality deniers:
Ukrainian Offensive Amid Week 2: NATO Rushes in More Armor as Losses Mount
- Ukraine in its second week of offensive operations is still struggling within Russia’s security zone, having failed to even reach Russia’s first major defensive lines;
- The Western media is attempting to claim Ukrainian-held villages along the front equates to progress, yet these are villages the same Western media admitted Russia evacuated ahead of the offensive, preparing fully to include them as part of the security zone;
- The Western media is also admitting heavy Ukrainian losses among German Leopard 2 tanks, engineering equipment, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, MRAPs, and much more;
- The US is scrambling to pass another “security assistance” package to replace lost Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles, however Ukraine’s ability to effectively use these in any quantity is prohibited by a lack of training, experience, logistics, and sustainment capabilities;
For more big picture stuff on the military and geopolitical level, I highly recommend The Duran with Scott Ritter today—it’s at 2 hours and still going strong.
Politics. In these turbulent times, it’s not too early to wargame 2024. Will Schryver has a provocative view, which we’ve all been thinking about. No easy solutions here:
My sense of things is that the Democrats know they can't run Biden for re-election. And, of course, they won't let Kennedy even sniff the nomination. Likewise, the Republican establishment will do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump off the ballot. 2024 will be utter chaos.
Those are the intentions. Will the Republican establishment be able to keep Trump from taking the nomination? Remember 2016! They will pull no punches, but Trump is Trump. Will the Dems be able to sell California to the rest of country? Gavin Newsom? San Francisco, a city that brings daily data points of its implosion? Tough sell. Plus, taking out Zhou entails considerable risks—exposing grotesque corruption. Schryver makes this point, but the risks remain:
Perhaps ... but my impression is that the "Biden Family Corruption" narrative is increasingly being "promoted" in the imperial media.
In any case, I suspect matters both external and domestic will become even more complicated and fraught with tension between now and next summer.
Yeah. External = Global War and Economic/monetary Reset; Internal = Recession, Social Chaos, especially in major urban areas but everywhere in government schools. This is the key problem—too many moving parts, which makes the argument for utter chaos at least somewhat compelling.
Wild Card. Can Trump make the Big Pivot? To Covid and TransMadness? RFK has upped the ante and is making some headway. Polling shows the public is increasingly fed up with Woke Madness. Stats show Americans are done with injections:
Pfizer Caught Funnelling $12 Million to Anderson Cooper To Promote mRNA Jabs to Americans
Pfizer Caught Funnelling $12 Million to Anderson Cooper To Promote mRNA Jabs to Americans - The...
Pfizer has funnelled a whopping $12 million dollars into the bank account of CNN host Anderson Cooper as part of a deal to promote the company's toxic mRNA jabs to the American public.
Dump Zhou, torpedo RFK, and what’s left? Or, you know what’s left is Way Left. It’s engineered into the Dem permanent campaign to fundamentally transform America. A Big Pivot for Dems seems to me to be out of the question at this point:
Trans activists flaunt bare breasts at White House Pride Month event
Interesting times. Scary times.
The Dems can choose the craziest person they can find. They will still get elected. Because - and I get sick of saying this - the voter fraud that won them 2020 has not been fixed.
The notion of enticing immigrants to sign up for the US armed forces with citizenship does smell like ancient Rome and the hiring of barbarian mercenaries with promises of land and citizenship in the empire. The Western empire paid the price as the barbarians ending up sacking Rome and the death spiral began.
Another similarity would be diversity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in WWI. The Hapsburg empire was rife with internal problems stemming from diversity. Their military was extremely dysfunctional largely due to language problems among the leadership and the fighting men such that orders were misunderstood, the foot soldier didn't want to fight for a regime they did not like, etc, etc. Austrians were little help to the Central alliance. Inviting and training barbarians to fill our armed services seems like a sure fire way to destroy what's left of the productive class. That our youth are mentally ill and afraid tells us much about the state of parenting and education.
Paying Anderson Cooper millions to push a known killer drug is tantamount to subsidizing the cartels to push fentanyl into the country. Both kill, one quickly and the other insidiuously. John Kerry says there are just too many people and the Malthusians are once again pushing eugenics. Hmmmm, seems like there is an extinction event in the making and no one seems to mind except the deplorables.