Below, I’m going to insert a transcript/summary of Tom Luongo talking with the guys at The Duran. I’m still catching up on things, but I thought that putting the first twenty minutes of an hour and a half Youtube in writing would really help readers—allowing them to pause, rewind, ponder, etc. First some preliminaries from the news today that will make sense in light of what Luongo was saying a few days ago.
Here’s a very interesting take on JayPow and the Fed that jibes well with the scenario painted by Tom Luongo, DDB and others. The author suggests that Powell is fulfilling a role posited by William Strauss and Neil Howe in the context of an American “Fourth Turning” or cyclical crisis:
“In each crisis period, history sees the rise of a Gray Champion — a wise elder who has lived through the cycle’s four phases. The Gray Champion’s experience will help lead the nation out of its winter crisis and once again into springtime.”
In the author’s view, Jay Powell is this Fourth Turning’s Gray Champion. A fascinating read:
“Biden’s sanctions forced Russia to turn east and ally with Red China. Biden is a fool who believes NATO is the leader of the world. It represents less than 10% of the world, is largely old and its birth rate barely keeps up with its death rate.” Gulp!
Thanks very much, Mark. I happened to listen to the entire interview last night. Luongo is very clear in what he says. It is kind of a soliloquy on his part but a very enlightening one. If anyone has the time I strongly suggest listening to the whole thing.
I am convinced the Fed knows what it is doing (or perhaps more accurately what it wants to do), in accord with what Luongo says. It has motives, a plan, and intended results. What it can't anticipate entirely is the magnitude of what will happen in response to its actions and when.
For every action the Fed takes there will be counter actions by Europe/Davos. The markets will certainly respond to both its actions and Davos' actions to some degree. But to what degree and to what effect either short or long term? No one knows this with certainty. I mean, to this day the U.S. markets STILL do not take the message that Powell has been sending over and over again about ending the "Fed Put' seriously. Add to this the Biden admin and Yellen are muddying the waters purposely all along.
First it was SVB and Signature; then it was Credit Suisse; today Deutsche Bank; what about tomorrow? In this sense the Fed is "playing it by ear" as it goes through the battles in this economic war.
What scares me the most is that for the Fed to be (ultimately) successful it will require the U.S. Congress to start restraining fiscal spending - not funding escalation of the war in Ukraine, for example. Given the number of Neocons on both sides of the aisle in Congress and an untold number of them who are Soros/Davos payees who are either wittingly or unwittingly acting to collapse the U.S. economy, that is not something on which I would like to bet. Luongo thinks the NY boys have control of Congress and that there will be enough resistance there to support the Fed and prevent the economic collapse of the U.S.; and that there is enough resistance in the DoD to forestall WWIII. I certainly hope and pray so.
1. Russian planes are overflying US positions in Syria daily, and May be sharing recon with Iranian Proxies. US is complaining…
Nice revenge, tic for tac.
2. Taiwan is sending some military supplies to Ukraine, supposedly Drone swarms.
3. Russia is deploying some type of microwave weapon finally to fry drones. The potential to fry military electronics has been a threat for a while, and hardening weapons has been a U.S. concern for a while.
"Yellen is doing what she was put at Treasury to do, create a panic, undermine the Fed's move to end the [Fed] Put and hand the western banking system to her Davos paymasters."
Between Davos and Chinese paymasters, it would seem our regime is for America last. And Bragg is now complaining on the nerve of Trump pre-empting his perp-walk.
Here’s a very interesting take on JayPow and the Fed that jibes well with the scenario painted by Tom Luongo, DDB and others. The author suggests that Powell is fulfilling a role posited by William Strauss and Neil Howe in the context of an American “Fourth Turning” or cyclical crisis:
“In each crisis period, history sees the rise of a Gray Champion — a wise elder who has lived through the cycle’s four phases. The Gray Champion’s experience will help lead the nation out of its winter crisis and once again into springtime.”
In the author’s view, Jay Powell is this Fourth Turning’s Gray Champion. A fascinating read:
https://harrisonburge.substack.com/p/jerome-powell-this-fourth-turnings
A Surber-eye view on Luongo’s Duran speech:
“Biden’s sanctions forced Russia to turn east and ally with Red China. Biden is a fool who believes NATO is the leader of the world. It represents less than 10% of the world, is largely old and its birth rate barely keeps up with its death rate.” Gulp!
Thanks very much, Mark. I happened to listen to the entire interview last night. Luongo is very clear in what he says. It is kind of a soliloquy on his part but a very enlightening one. If anyone has the time I strongly suggest listening to the whole thing.
I am convinced the Fed knows what it is doing (or perhaps more accurately what it wants to do), in accord with what Luongo says. It has motives, a plan, and intended results. What it can't anticipate entirely is the magnitude of what will happen in response to its actions and when.
For every action the Fed takes there will be counter actions by Europe/Davos. The markets will certainly respond to both its actions and Davos' actions to some degree. But to what degree and to what effect either short or long term? No one knows this with certainty. I mean, to this day the U.S. markets STILL do not take the message that Powell has been sending over and over again about ending the "Fed Put' seriously. Add to this the Biden admin and Yellen are muddying the waters purposely all along.
First it was SVB and Signature; then it was Credit Suisse; today Deutsche Bank; what about tomorrow? In this sense the Fed is "playing it by ear" as it goes through the battles in this economic war.
What scares me the most is that for the Fed to be (ultimately) successful it will require the U.S. Congress to start restraining fiscal spending - not funding escalation of the war in Ukraine, for example. Given the number of Neocons on both sides of the aisle in Congress and an untold number of them who are Soros/Davos payees who are either wittingly or unwittingly acting to collapse the U.S. economy, that is not something on which I would like to bet. Luongo thinks the NY boys have control of Congress and that there will be enough resistance there to support the Fed and prevent the economic collapse of the U.S.; and that there is enough resistance in the DoD to forestall WWIII. I certainly hope and pray so.
Simplicius made some interesting points:
1. Russian planes are overflying US positions in Syria daily, and May be sharing recon with Iranian Proxies. US is complaining…
Nice revenge, tic for tac.
2. Taiwan is sending some military supplies to Ukraine, supposedly Drone swarms.
3. Russia is deploying some type of microwave weapon finally to fry drones. The potential to fry military electronics has been a threat for a while, and hardening weapons has been a U.S. concern for a while.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32323-offensive-paranoia?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2
Wow! Back with a vengeance.
"Yellen is doing what she was put at Treasury to do, create a panic, undermine the Fed's move to end the [Fed] Put and hand the western banking system to her Davos paymasters."
Between Davos and Chinese paymasters, it would seem our regime is for America last. And Bragg is now complaining on the nerve of Trump pre-empting his perp-walk.
Keep well.
Tom has it wrong about creditor priority - it should be:
1a. Insured depositors, with shortfall made up by the FDIC fund.
1b. Secured creditors
2. Uninsured depositors
3. Senior bondholders
4. Subordinated bondholders
5. Various types of junior subordinated claims, including preferred stock, trust preferred and the like.
6. Equity (common)
I assume tax obligations, payroll and other general claims are treated equally or superior to senior debt.
It’s been a long time since I looked at an AT1 bond but I believe they are junior sub claims
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1638982218084220928