Here’s a very interesting take on JayPow and the Fed that jibes well with the scenario painted by Tom Luongo, DDB and others. The author suggests that Powell is fulfilling a role posited by William Strauss and Neil Howe in the context of an American “Fourth Turning” or cyclical crisis:
“In each crisis period, history sees the rise of a Gray Champion — a wise elder who has lived through the cycle’s four phases. The Gray Champion’s experience will help lead the nation out of its winter crisis and once again into springtime.”
In the author’s view, Jay Powell is this Fourth Turning’s Gray Champion. A fascinating read:
I really should have said that the author runs with Luongo’s own argument and cites essays by others with similar commentary (see link below for example). What I appreciate in this essay is that the author does a great job placing Luongo’s scenario in a broader historical / interpretive context.
The essay by “acmp” (A Christian Man) I link to above is definitely worth reading too. Does a good job explaining what the ramifications of what Powell is up will be for ordinary Americans. Example: gives me hope that traditional local banks are not headed for extinction.
“Biden’s sanctions forced Russia to turn east and ally with Red China. Biden is a fool who believes NATO is the leader of the world. It represents less than 10% of the world, is largely old and its birth rate barely keeps up with its death rate.” Gulp!
Thanks very much, Mark. I happened to listen to the entire interview last night. Luongo is very clear in what he says. It is kind of a soliloquy on his part but a very enlightening one. If anyone has the time I strongly suggest listening to the whole thing.
I am convinced the Fed knows what it is doing (or perhaps more accurately what it wants to do), in accord with what Luongo says. It has motives, a plan, and intended results. What it can't anticipate entirely is the magnitude of what will happen in response to its actions and when.
For every action the Fed takes there will be counter actions by Europe/Davos. The markets will certainly respond to both its actions and Davos' actions to some degree. But to what degree and to what effect either short or long term? No one knows this with certainty. I mean, to this day the U.S. markets STILL do not take the message that Powell has been sending over and over again about ending the "Fed Put' seriously. Add to this the Biden admin and Yellen are muddying the waters purposely all along.
First it was SVB and Signature; then it was Credit Suisse; today Deutsche Bank; what about tomorrow? In this sense the Fed is "playing it by ear" as it goes through the battles in this economic war.
What scares me the most is that for the Fed to be (ultimately) successful it will require the U.S. Congress to start restraining fiscal spending - not funding escalation of the war in Ukraine, for example. Given the number of Neocons on both sides of the aisle in Congress and an untold number of them who are Soros/Davos payees who are either wittingly or unwittingly acting to collapse the U.S. economy, that is not something on which I would like to bet. Luongo thinks the NY boys have control of Congress and that there will be enough resistance there to support the Fed and prevent the economic collapse of the U.S.; and that there is enough resistance in the DoD to forestall WWIII. I certainly hope and pray so.
1. Russian planes are overflying US positions in Syria daily, and May be sharing recon with Iranian Proxies. US is complaining…
Nice revenge, tic for tac.
2. Taiwan is sending some military supplies to Ukraine, supposedly Drone swarms.
3. Russia is deploying some type of microwave weapon finally to fry drones. The potential to fry military electronics has been a threat for a while, and hardening weapons has been a U.S. concern for a while.
I agree that Prigozhin is almost certainly greatly exaggerating.
Re Poland, you can see what a bugaboo that is for Russians. Poland is foolishly resurrecting all the latent anti-Polonism in Russia. The reality is that Poland having the largest military in the EU would mean that it would still be small and inadequate to doing battle with Russia.
It will take them YEARS to reach those goals, if they ever do. Lots can change. And as for the a Polish - Russian partition of Ukraine, IMO, that would be the one thing that could land Putin in serious hot water politically. I don't think people who propose that idea understand the antipathy that Russians have for Poland--at least in its current incarnation under a hyper nationalist and hyper Russophobic government.
In January, Poland asked US congressmen to help secure war reparations from Germany ($1.36 trillion). Every aspect of this move is splendid. From an aesthetic point of view, I almost don't want Poland to stop.
Thanks. You knew that our positions there, and in Iraq, would be increasingly targeted as they become more vulnerable. Lots has changed, but our deployments haven't.
There are reports of American service personnel casualties in Syria from last night strike.
I think Biden is going to dig further into the sand and ratchet things up
Timing very interesting. Rapprochement in West Asia of Saudi Kingdom, Iran, and Syria.
Putin continues talks with Erdogan to bring him into the fold.
The ancient civilization states of China, Russia, Persia/Iran, Syria are realigning. Turikie needs to turn East as it has been for much of its history.
This is anathema to the neo cons. So in addition to war mongering with two nuclear states let's just through flaming petrol and insults to the huge regional power Iran.
"Yellen is doing what she was put at Treasury to do, create a panic, undermine the Fed's move to end the [Fed] Put and hand the western banking system to her Davos paymasters."
Between Davos and Chinese paymasters, it would seem our regime is for America last. And Bragg is now complaining on the nerve of Trump pre-empting his perp-walk.
I defer to Tom’s knowledge of the Swiss AT1 market. All of these nonstandard debt issues are complicated and you have to read the deal docs. I understood Tom to say that there were special clauses in the Swiss AT1 deals (maybe not in other Euro bank AT1 deals) that allowed the regulators to zero these bonds out before the merger. This effectively put the equity holders ahead of the AT1 holders. My takeaway is the SNB gamed this out years ago and was ready for the investors trying to take over CS.
They are chosen because they are malleable and because they tick the right boxes. People underestimate how important "ticking the right boxes" is for these maniacs. They are fanatical ideologues and really don't care about the important things we care about. It's all about keeping to the sacred creed.
I have the feeling that they are all in uncharted territory and are not sure what to do. My hope is that the US gets back to its roots financially and is able to rid itself from the anglo/american banking system that has plagued us for almost all of our history.
Here’s a very interesting take on JayPow and the Fed that jibes well with the scenario painted by Tom Luongo, DDB and others. The author suggests that Powell is fulfilling a role posited by William Strauss and Neil Howe in the context of an American “Fourth Turning” or cyclical crisis:
“In each crisis period, history sees the rise of a Gray Champion — a wise elder who has lived through the cycle’s four phases. The Gray Champion’s experience will help lead the nation out of its winter crisis and once again into springtime.”
In the author’s view, Jay Powell is this Fourth Turning’s Gray Champion. A fascinating read:
https://harrisonburge.substack.com/p/jerome-powell-this-fourth-turnings
I really should have said that the author runs with Luongo’s own argument and cites essays by others with similar commentary (see link below for example). What I appreciate in this essay is that the author does a great job placing Luongo’s scenario in a broader historical / interpretive context.
https://acmp.substack.com/p/the-feds-quiet-play-to-save-america
The essay by “acmp” (A Christian Man) I link to above is definitely worth reading too. Does a good job explaining what the ramifications of what Powell is up will be for ordinary Americans. Example: gives me hope that traditional local banks are not headed for extinction.
A Surber-eye view on Luongo’s Duran speech:
“Biden’s sanctions forced Russia to turn east and ally with Red China. Biden is a fool who believes NATO is the leader of the world. It represents less than 10% of the world, is largely old and its birth rate barely keeps up with its death rate.” Gulp!
Thanks very much, Mark. I happened to listen to the entire interview last night. Luongo is very clear in what he says. It is kind of a soliloquy on his part but a very enlightening one. If anyone has the time I strongly suggest listening to the whole thing.
I am convinced the Fed knows what it is doing (or perhaps more accurately what it wants to do), in accord with what Luongo says. It has motives, a plan, and intended results. What it can't anticipate entirely is the magnitude of what will happen in response to its actions and when.
For every action the Fed takes there will be counter actions by Europe/Davos. The markets will certainly respond to both its actions and Davos' actions to some degree. But to what degree and to what effect either short or long term? No one knows this with certainty. I mean, to this day the U.S. markets STILL do not take the message that Powell has been sending over and over again about ending the "Fed Put' seriously. Add to this the Biden admin and Yellen are muddying the waters purposely all along.
First it was SVB and Signature; then it was Credit Suisse; today Deutsche Bank; what about tomorrow? In this sense the Fed is "playing it by ear" as it goes through the battles in this economic war.
What scares me the most is that for the Fed to be (ultimately) successful it will require the U.S. Congress to start restraining fiscal spending - not funding escalation of the war in Ukraine, for example. Given the number of Neocons on both sides of the aisle in Congress and an untold number of them who are Soros/Davos payees who are either wittingly or unwittingly acting to collapse the U.S. economy, that is not something on which I would like to bet. Luongo thinks the NY boys have control of Congress and that there will be enough resistance there to support the Fed and prevent the economic collapse of the U.S.; and that there is enough resistance in the DoD to forestall WWIII. I certainly hope and pray so.
Simplicius made some interesting points:
1. Russian planes are overflying US positions in Syria daily, and May be sharing recon with Iranian Proxies. US is complaining…
Nice revenge, tic for tac.
2. Taiwan is sending some military supplies to Ukraine, supposedly Drone swarms.
3. Russia is deploying some type of microwave weapon finally to fry drones. The potential to fry military electronics has been a threat for a while, and hardening weapons has been a U.S. concern for a while.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32323-offensive-paranoia?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2
I agree that Prigozhin is almost certainly greatly exaggerating.
Re Poland, you can see what a bugaboo that is for Russians. Poland is foolishly resurrecting all the latent anti-Polonism in Russia. The reality is that Poland having the largest military in the EU would mean that it would still be small and inadequate to doing battle with Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Armed_Forces#Homeland_Defence_Act_(2022)
It will take them YEARS to reach those goals, if they ever do. Lots can change. And as for the a Polish - Russian partition of Ukraine, IMO, that would be the one thing that could land Putin in serious hot water politically. I don't think people who propose that idea understand the antipathy that Russians have for Poland--at least in its current incarnation under a hyper nationalist and hyper Russophobic government.
In January, Poland asked US congressmen to help secure war reparations from Germany ($1.36 trillion). Every aspect of this move is splendid. From an aesthetic point of view, I almost don't want Poland to stop.
Thanks. You knew that our positions there, and in Iraq, would be increasingly targeted as they become more vulnerable. Lots has changed, but our deployments haven't.
Anyone for a betting pool on when the US leaves Syria?
Iran has no incentive to reduce the pressure on US forces. I’m surprised they waited this long.
There are reports of American service personnel casualties in Syria from last night strike.
I think Biden is going to dig further into the sand and ratchet things up
Timing very interesting. Rapprochement in West Asia of Saudi Kingdom, Iran, and Syria.
Putin continues talks with Erdogan to bring him into the fold.
The ancient civilization states of China, Russia, Persia/Iran, Syria are realigning. Turikie needs to turn East as it has been for much of its history.
This is anathema to the neo cons. So in addition to war mongering with two nuclear states let's just through flaming petrol and insults to the huge regional power Iran.
Total idiocy and insanity.
Distraction on steroids.
Evidently the 2 US outposts in Eastern Syria are under attack again.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/03/24/700390/Syria-United-States-attack-Dayr-al-Zawr
Wow! Back with a vengeance.
"Yellen is doing what she was put at Treasury to do, create a panic, undermine the Fed's move to end the [Fed] Put and hand the western banking system to her Davos paymasters."
Between Davos and Chinese paymasters, it would seem our regime is for America last. And Bragg is now complaining on the nerve of Trump pre-empting his perp-walk.
Keep well.
Tom has it wrong about creditor priority - it should be:
1a. Insured depositors, with shortfall made up by the FDIC fund.
1b. Secured creditors
2. Uninsured depositors
3. Senior bondholders
4. Subordinated bondholders
5. Various types of junior subordinated claims, including preferred stock, trust preferred and the like.
6. Equity (common)
I assume tax obligations, payroll and other general claims are treated equally or superior to senior debt.
It’s been a long time since I looked at an AT1 bond but I believe they are junior sub claims
Thanks for the clarification. The major point would appear to remain, that by writing the AT1 bonds to zero the merger became possible.
Yes, that is correct. Tom also proposes that the AT1 owners essentially tried a hostile takeover and were thwarted. Something I had considered.
Reports are that this may not be over yet.
How so? Is the emergency meeting with Yellen and Powell still going on?
You forgot ten percent for the big guy
I defer to Tom’s knowledge of the Swiss AT1 market. All of these nonstandard debt issues are complicated and you have to read the deal docs. I understood Tom to say that there were special clauses in the Swiss AT1 deals (maybe not in other Euro bank AT1 deals) that allowed the regulators to zero these bonds out before the merger. This effectively put the equity holders ahead of the AT1 holders. My takeaway is the SNB gamed this out years ago and was ready for the investors trying to take over CS.
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1638982218084220928
They are chosen because they are malleable and because they tick the right boxes. People underestimate how important "ticking the right boxes" is for these maniacs. They are fanatical ideologues and really don't care about the important things we care about. It's all about keeping to the sacred creed.
Robert, he’s sorta like Constable Dogberry in Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, he was, “too cunning to be understood” as well.
The country is being run by DDS graduates. Ding dong school, not dentists :-)
I have the feeling that they are all in uncharted territory and are not sure what to do. My hope is that the US gets back to its roots financially and is able to rid itself from the anglo/american banking system that has plagued us for almost all of our history.