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Nutmeg's avatar

https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1908204378613248067

Tucker's hour long interview on Friday with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

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St. Mudphud's avatar

I found this to be helpful. The author claims to summarize and understand the book-length theoretical underpinnings for the tariffs. Basically, the goal is not reciprocal tariffs but reciprocal trade; the goal is to break out of the game-theoretical trap of promoting free trade while allowing other countries to take advantage and impoverish us in the long run by their promoting mercantilist policies.

https://open.substack.com/pub/treeofwoe/p/balanced-trade

Quote:

“[I]f you read Trump’s executive order, it reads as if it was written by the Richmans - or at ;east by someone with a copy of their book on their desk as they typed the executive order. If you compare Trump’s executive order to pages 8-11 of Balanced Trade you’ll see it for yourself. Rarely in the history of presidential policy has a scholars policy formulation been so precisely followed.

The only difference is that Trump has also included a national strategic tariff of 10% as a baseline. Trump trade policy is simply Ian Fletcher’s Free Trade Doesn’t Work combined with the Richmans’ Balanced Trade!”

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Thanks very much. I suspect that, as in so many other issues, Trumpian rhetoric is designed to sell a popular case to the populace without getting entangled in a debate on a theoretical level. But Trump actually does embrace the theoretical level. The trick with some of his policies is to identify the theoretical level that he's aiming for.

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St. Mudphud's avatar

Agree completely, as that has been my perception. If only I could understand the theoretical underpinning of his tactics with Russia and the Middle East… I want to trust the process, but your commentary along with that of others have made me less and less optimistic that he isn’t succumbing to undue influence and taking the wrong course. As an individual citizen without foreign policy expertise, all I can do is pray for a good outcome.

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Nutmeg's avatar

https://thenationalpulse.com/analysis-post/trumps-tariffs-are-about-a-lot-more-than-just-reducing-the-trade-deficit/

Two pertinent sections from the story.

"Trump’s true economic revolution isn’t just tariffs—it’s a bid to de-financialize the US economy, cut Wall Street’s grip, and refocus on real industrial growth. The bond market, not the trade deficit, may be the real target."

"Over the last several decades, the American economy has become overly focused on shareholder interests, resulting in companies prioritizing profit maximization to increase investor dividends. This change encouraged large-scale outsourcing of jobs from the United States to foreign countries with either weak currencies or generous state subsidies, drastically reducing labor and production costs. The shift away from production resulted in many American businesses deriving most of their profits through arbitrage rather than producing products themselves."

There are a lot, a lot of moving pieces that have to move just right for it to succeed.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

And that's an omelet that doesn't get made without breaking some eggs. Trump's been on this for a long time.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/04/04/the-apoplexy-over-the-trump-tariffs-is-the-trillions-at-stake-part-of-our-decades-long-discussion/

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Stephen McIntyre's avatar

leaving aside, world, politics, and other things the most glaring thing right now that people are looking at is the fact that the stock market dropped approximately 4000 points in the last two days.

People are not going to be concerned about policy. They’re going to be concerned about the value of their 401(k) plans their investments, their ability to plan for retirement you name it.

The reality is that Trump in a little over two months has blown all of his goodwill and political capital.

We are looking at a presidency that is imploding. I would say opinion polls on Trump in the next week are going to look pretty bad for him. When you get down to money and pocketbook issues, people will turn on you regardless.

He could’ve handled all of this a much better way I think, but he had an obsession with hitting people with tariffs. He wants to hit all of the BRICS countries with a 100% tariff if they come up with their own mechanism of payments and such, he looks at them as a total threat to the United States dollar. Well, I got news for him Eurasia is where a lot of big growth is going to come from in the future.

I don’t believe Trump ever went on national television and totally explained this tariff situation to the American people and what he was trying to accomplish. I suspect what it looks like to most people is a total disaster. An avoidable disaster.

My prediction is this there is going to be a huge amount of pressure put on Trump over the weekend by the financial community to do something. People are not going to standby and watch everything they work for evaporate to half of what it was because of Trump’s policies.

Let’s see what happens by Monday. The Last Pl., Trump needs to be as out on a golfing holiday when he needs to be in Washington addressing the problems he’s created.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

A number of things.

Don't believe all of Trump's rhetoric.

There are already some major countries looking to do deals with the US (India for one).

The tariffs are not simply an obsession. As PP says, Trump has smart advisers. Some of his key econ and fiscal appointments would never have come on board if they thought this was just an obsession.

This is bitter medicine for some, but realistically there is no other way to start the process of bringing the US economy back to reality. Any other road would have taken forever. PP liked the "bancor" solution, but that would require international cooperation at Bretton Woods 2.0.

I believe tariffs were a centerpiece of his campaign.

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dissonant1's avatar

Agreed on these points. As anyone reading my comment yesterday will surmise, I also appreciate PP's points about the "spontaneous regrowth of industries lost to globalization" and the impetus for inflation that might be caused by protectionism and concurrent tax cuts.

On the other hand, the Bancor solution doesn't sound much different to me than the top-down control of multinational organizations such as the WTO and SWIFT. We have seen how well those have worked \s. In particular it was unconditioned MFN and WTO membership that led directly to Chinese trade imbalances with the West.

My natural inclination is to say that we should try mercantilism (or if you prefer, neo-mercantilism) again. At least we won't have globalist George Soros and Klaus Schwab types trying to dictate global trade conditions and inequities. And national governments are best positioned and incentivized to impact trade and market monopolies that disadvantage their own local companies and industries. There is the old maxim about the best government being local - does that not apply here?

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Nutmeg's avatar

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-shares-tiktok-video-claiming-he-is-purposefully-crashing-the-market/?cfp

"He said President Donald Trump and his administration need an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda."

That seems like a risky threading of the needle...

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Joy Morris's avatar

Am I the only one who sees the Anglo-Zionist's Empire hold on DJT as a feature, not a bug?

Based on foreign policy actions taken during his first term as well as domestic and international ones recently, I can't help but recall a German Mardi Gras float (Cologne, I believe, but it seems to have been scrubbed from the internet) featuring the Orange Guy on all fours with "Satanyahoo" taking license from behind...sometimes a vulgar image speaks a million words.

And isn't BB credited with saying something on the order of "When we are done with the US, it can shrivel up and blow away?" Did not the "Dancing Israeli's" (9/11) moving company staff alienate an original employee to report to the FBI having said something like: "Give us 20 years, we'll own your media and destroy your country"? Most prophetic, seems to me.

Why would anyone (implicitly or otherwise) assume DJT wants to end up like JFK?

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Richard C. Cook's avatar

We hope

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TomA's avatar

The world economic collapse was coming on sooner rather than later and the Globalists intended that Trump take the fall later this year, thereby building a grassroots rage and political reaction aimed at imposing a techno-tyranny in the aftermath. And now Trump has flipped over the card table. No plan survives contact with the enemy, and the Globalists are reeling in panicked reaction to Trump's OODA loop. If fact, every government on the planet is now hurriedly reacting to Trump's unpredictability. At some point, the chaos alone will drive world leaders to the bargaining table just to end the. madness. Big powwow to follow and when the smoke clears, the Globalists will be wondering what hit them.

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

1) Mike Waltz is an idiot

2) Bretton Woods from my recollection was intended to reward the US for the efforts of WWII and position the US as a global finance trade partner / clearing house IN exchange for serving as the global military peace provider.

3) Mike Waltz is still an idiot

4) Recall NAFTA and China's entry to the WTO mid-late 90's opened the doors for trade imbalance to take off.

5) Mike Waltz continues to be an idiot.

6) Trump's backup plan today is going after the Feds to shame them into reducing interest rates.

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History Lass's avatar

7) and Mike Waltz will still be a dangerous idiot :-)

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Richard C. Cook's avatar

Mark Wauck never answers me, though I post his stuff. Here's my own take anyhow.

https://montanarcc.substack.com/p/trumps-liberation-day-tariff-program

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

Probably had to babysit with the Mrs. early today, then got rear-ended on the way home and now basking in the comfort of the Chicago Cubs home opener.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/middle-eastern-pressure-pot-overheating

But Yemen is not the administration’s only headache in the Middle East. On Wednesday this week, Israel launched multiple bombing raids on Syria, hitting military installations including the T4 airbase near Homs where Turkish forces were planning a military base with air defence facilities intended exactly to prevent Israeli air raids. An Israeli official, quoted by the Jerusalem Post stated that, “Our airstrikes in Syria are a message to Turkey not to establish a military base there or interfere in our operations.” It seems surreal that the Israeli government thought that they needed another confrontation with a new enemy in the region but they also clearly regard dropping bombs as the only tool of foreign policy.

So far, there has been no reaction from Turkey, but it’s hard to imagine that they won’t plan countermeasures.

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Steghorn21's avatar

The Zionists are on top of the world right now, drunk with their own hubris. I see a slice of nemesis coming their way. They are becoming dangerously over-stretched. Let's hope that, for once in his life, Erdogan does something noble and straightforward and tells them go to hell.

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Ray-SoCa's avatar

U.S. economic swag:

What’s needed to improve the U.S. economy

1. Reduce regulations. In process.

2. Change financial rules and laws that reward outsourcing.

3. End stock buybacks

4. Stop rewarding bigger is better. This is done through laws, regulations, and cheap money. As well as antitrust.

5. Reduce power of Blackrock and ilk. Under Obama three grew tremendously. I don’t know details how they grew so large.

6. Create fair trade, not free trade. In process.

7. Annul duke vs Griggs power, this rewards credentialism.

8. Reduce risk / tax of lawsuits.

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

I doubt that one will get much legs. Downsizing gov't and regulations will mostly be the method I feel. USAID contracts to the Blackrocks of the world will require them to come up with other methods to keep their shareholders happy.

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Khalissee @Kahlissee

America has launched an airstrike on a key water source in western Yemen, leaving more than 50,000 civilians without access to water.

This is not an error; it’s a calculated assault on vital civilian infrastructure.

A war crime, committed in full view, and a direct attack on humanity itself.

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aDoozy's avatar

Here is what the President of the US said on March 19 2025:

...that he had ordered “decisive and powerful military action” against the Houthis and later threatened to “completely annihilate them.”

This is appalling to me.

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aDoozy's avatar

Here is the story, posted on a news website:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250403-50000-yemenis-left-without-water-after-us-air-strike-on-hudaydah/.

Be sure to watch the included video. There is nothing recognizable left where the US bombs hit. It is all grey rubble.

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aDoozy's avatar

The people who decided on this target, the people who planned the assault, and the people who committed the attack...are they all celebrating this dastardly deed?

What kinds of souls do these people have...callous souls that remove the water of life from tens of thousands of human beings, and from their farm animals and crops and more.

This was a reprehensible, heartless, evil deed.

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Steghorn21's avatar

Yep. I'm sure the ICC is right on it.

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

The Saudi's too.

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Jeff Cook-Coyle's avatar

Jeff Childers has a strong take today on the tariffs.

The President held a spontaneous press gaggle aboard Air Force One last night. The Times reported, “Trump signaled he is open to negotiating tariffs, if other nations offer something ‘phenomenal’ in return.” Reacting, New Delhi did not fire off a trade war. Instead, India vowed “to study the new opportunities that may arise from Trump's Liberation Day move.”

Even more encouraging, over the roar of the engines, Trump told reporters that it’s already working. “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. Every country has called us.” In fewer than 100 days, Trump has begun conquering the world— without firing a single artillery round. . .

He’s holding all the cards. “We’ve put ourselves in the driver’s seat,” Trump explained. “If we would’ve asked most of these countries to do us a favor, they would’ve said no,” the President said. “Now they’ll do anything for us.”

Anything?

Former House Speaker and Trump ally Newt Gingrich told USA Today, “Trump likes to negotiate. And he figured out sometime, I think probably during the four years in the wilderness, that we're the largest economy in the world, we have the greatest net advantage, and therefore in negotiations we will virtually always win.”

Now pay close attention. It’s impossible to overestimate the mind-blowing possibilities. Despite media’s fake claims, Trump has obviously wargamed this out for a long time, his four years in the wilderness. So … now he’s holding all the cards, what will he ask the world’s countries for? The possibilities are endless and potentially world-changing. Suddenly, he holds all the world’s leaders in the palm of his hand— including, or especially, the countries who helped his deep state enemies further RussiaGate and Crossfire Hurricane.

Might that be why he called it Liberation Day?

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Mark Wauck's avatar

Thanks, I'll get to it. I doubt it's as simple as that. Trump is doing this because he knows we have major problems and that we don't hold all the cards. Which is why he's seeking cooperation with Russia.

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Jeff Cook-Coyle's avatar

I would like to think that this means that Lindsey! was told first hand what an attack on Iran would mean, no kidding (see below).

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Jeff Cook-Coyle's avatar

From Alex Christoforou's X Account.

Kirill Dmitriev meeting Lindsey Graham.

This might signal a change in US-Russia talks.👇

NBC NEWS: Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev met with White House officials and Republican lawmakers at the White House last night, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the meetings. It’s not clear whether Trump dropped in on the meeting at any point.

Dmitriev met with Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, and Markwayne Mullin, of Oklahoma, at the White House last night at Trump’s request. The group discussed terms for ending the war in Ukraine and Putin’s demands for a ceasefire, the three U.S. officials said.

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susan mullen's avatar

I have no sympathy for Trump. All my sympathy is reserved for defenseless, powerless, US taxpayers and citizens who elected Trump in 2016 believing it was our last chance to overthrow the World War II architecture that has chained US taxpayers for 80 years. We voted for normalization of relations with Russia but we didn't get it. Instead in Aug. 2017 congress removed all Russia matters from Trump thus humiliating him for all the world to see and guaranteeing no improvement of relations w. Russia. US taxpayers never voted to be global police. US taxpayers never agreed that USSR and later Russia was to be the official enemy of the US for 80 years as first declared by Truman--just after US ally USSR had lost 25 million of its own citizens defeating Hitler including living under German occupation for over a year. Trump never has to face voters again. He can do as he wishes.

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ML's avatar

Yes, and time waits for no one - and Russia and also China, by its recent naval actions, have sent very clear messages to Trump of the “catastrophic” consequences such an abhorrent violation of international law the bombing of Iran would represent. Trump is really in a vice - has he chosen to give the AZ’s the Yemen attacks, to stage a show - albeit commiting war crimes, while backing off Iran - talking of discussions in Oman? But things seem to be getting more dire - and he could destroy the newfound but fragile trust that has built up btw Russia and Trump negotiators. That would be catastrophe no. 2.

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Steghorn21's avatar

Maybe that surprising 17% tariff level that he curve balled the Zionists with is a first sign that he might do that. Let's hope so, Cass.

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Tamsin's avatar

I worry it was a slow easy pitch right down the center, so that IL could step up and prove their subordination. 😕

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AmericanCardigan's avatar

that to me was a signal too.

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ML's avatar

Fingers and toes crossed.

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