"Increasingly it appears that in the future US influence in the region will be limited by its ability to project raw military power into the region. And that ability is ebbing along with the influence of the dollar."
What will limit US influence in the region is the sheer incompetence of the American regime at diplomacy. We went out of our way to alienate Saudi Arabia. No matter how much raw military power we can or cannot project, we can only exert influence in conjunction with one or more regional allies. if we doubled the amount of military power we could project but still had no allies in the region with who we could work, no friendly country where we could not land a plane, our acual influence would still be marginal at best. The Biden regime went on jihad against Saudi Arabia over that journalist they wasted. I won't defend the Saudi's actions, but the way we treated them over the incident was always going to carry a cost.
LIdell Hart, in his book Strategy, reminds us that "The enemy of today is the ally of tomorrow and the customer of next week". We now have Russia as a permanent enemy. Even if regime change in Russia were a feasible goal it would be insane, because if you destroy Russia, then China, which has a lot of territorial claims against Russia, will pick up a hell of a lot of territory and resources in Asia increasing its relative power. How does this make the world a better or safer place? How does this further American interests? This is the product of people who lack basic diplomacy fu.
European statesmen once understood that the Great Powers had to adjust their claims against one another as they came up. You cooperated with other powers when you could and when your interests conflicted you tried to resolve that while avoiding a Great Power war, especially a war between coalitions of Great Powers, because that was incredibly dangerous, destructive, and unpredictable. The people in charge understand hegemony, and use the word hegemon quite a lot in their writings. They know only how to dictate to subservient satellites powers. They do not know how to practice diplomacy on the level I am describing. Thie incompetence dooms them to well deserved defeat and they may take the rest of us down with them.
Like the man said, can't anyone here play this game?
Sidebar: I am less impressed than most with the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. The Mullahs may keep their commitments to the Saudis and the Chinese, but if they do it will be a first.
The American elite or ruling class are still practicing diplomacy and international relationships like a kindergarten bully. They have no finesse, manners, or class. Hillary and her stupid Reset button, Obama presenting Her Majesty with recordings of his speeches, and then Trump and his name calling. The present spectacle of the current WH occupant shouting, shaking his fist, insulting so called allies as Pariahs, murderers and calling for regime change from the podium with the Presidential seal of the US is pathetic. The diplomats of State are no better. They are ignorant of history, culture and traditions of other nations. Nor do they seem to care that they are lacking. They sneer and look down on everyone not like them.
The Kremlin certainly rolled out the Red Carpet for Comrade Xi. I am sure that the most exacting protocols were observed along with polite words on top of polite words. It all looked very elegant and nice.
The answer to your question is probably yes. Anything Trump had done was to be repudiated.
Iran never abided by the nuclear agreement they made with us. The Saudis likely have bad memories of the Iranians smuggling Scud missiles into Yemen and pretending these had been put together by Dark Ages tribesmen in a cave somewhere who then launched them into Saudi Arabia. Iran waged a proxy war against Saudi Arabia for some time. I can certainly understand the Chinese seeking a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, since they import a lot of oil from the Gulf, and any trouble there is very much against their interests. The agreement may hold. I would not bet a plugged Yuan on it.
"Iran never abided by the nuclear agreement they made with us."
That was a coerced agreement, which shows the problem with sanctions. These agreements are different because they're aimed at integrating Iran into a new economic as well as a new security regime for the entire Eurasian area. To what degree the Saudis were coerced is a legit question, but there is also little doubt that they had economic and security interests that went beyond Iran and that had them looking for a more reliable partner than the US. Ultimately, Russia and China (and perhaps India) are the guarantors of this new regime and will not smile on anyone upsetting it from within.
"To what degree the Saudis were coerced is a legit question"
Coerced by the Chinese? My answer to that question is that I doubt very much that they were. Saudi Arabia has a military of doubtful effectiveness and needs security from Iran, which has waged a long running war against it. If it cannot get security from America because of the pathologies of the Biden regime, then it must seek security elsewhere. China can't keep a large military presence in the Gulf (Yet!) but it can broker a deal between Riyadh and Tehran, and if that's the best the Saudis can get it's the best they can get. No coercion involved. If Iran doesn't keep its end of the bargain (And I shall be surprised if it does) then the Saudis are no worse off than they are now.
International agreements are frequently "coerced". We do not live in an ideal world. In fact, the Iranians were not coerced into signing anything, they were offered a way out of ending their nuclear program and any American pressure to do so by an Administration that never took the issue seriously,
I was talking about pressure through the Yemen proxy war. You're treating this as a strictly Chinese brokered deal. In fact Russia has played a very large role in this. Teheran will not lightly disregard its undertakings which were made not simply to KSA but also to Russia and China. Iran has a lot to gain from the smooth working out of the new regime.
I missed seeing this. The missile war out of Yemen was never as effective as all that and a plate of fries. The US provided Patriot missiles for defense. The very limited number of Scuds Iran could smuggle in couldn't overwhelm those. There was a drone swarm attack on a Saudi oil facility that scared the bejabbers out of the Saudis because it was an unexpected form of attack against which they had no defense, It was afterwards claimed that the Yemeni tribesmen put those together in their caves somewhere, in fact they were launched from Iran.
I doubt that Russia had a lot to do with this particular deal though in fact they do have dealings with Iran (Witness the drones for fighters swap) China has a huge interest here and more influence. China imports a lot of Gulf oil. Russia is self sufficient.
EDIT: Even when a Patriot destroyed a Scud in flight, pieces parts were still raining down on Saudi territory. Hitting a missile doesn't entirely end the problem
“…but it is certainly remarkable that neither the US nor Israel, both countries presumably with an ear to the ground throughout the Middle East, didn’t have an inkling of what was going on…” the “tune out” method of intelligence gathering, guaranteed to lead to disaster.
It's times like these that make me hopeful. Our kiddies in Washington are playing at the game they know best, politics, and assuming that is what this is all about. We are not players on the world stage at all, and even domestic matters will work their way out independent of Washington. Sure, they will throw a monkey wrench left and right, but their basic incompetence prevents them from being particularly effective in messing things up, Joe's specialty. Iran and the Saudis finding common ground effectively locks us out, and even Israel, having done deals with the Saudis, will survive. The American citizen will also survive, mostly by ignoring Washington. I count on Russia and China to exercise restraint, as they can safely assume the US is a paper tiger and not united at all.
I will believe there is a substantive rapprochement between the Sunnis and the Shia, between the Sauds and the Persians when I see it in action.
Call me skeptical.
The USA and KSA (who took that acronym to emulate America) have a long-standing relationship. Team Zhou is screwing the pooch, sure. And perhaps once the democrat party of the USSA is firmly in dictatorial control for the foreseeable future, then yeah, the KSA will step firmly away from the USA.
Right now, these signals are simply tactical moves.
As to the CHICOM influence in the area,
good luck to them, hah.
~~~
Truth be told, if the CHICOMs could/could bring a general rapprochement between all warring ME factions, between the Sunnis and the Shias, we, and the rest of the world, should simply, joyfully, and humby offer our profound "Thanks."
I’m suspicious of any deal with both sides being ruthless religious fanatics that see the others as heretics, and can’t be trusted, but both sides have interests that are advanced by a deal.
The Biden Administration has managed to scare the Saudis, both politically and economically. Will they be next to be charged by The Hague? Will the Petrodollar lose all its value? Will the US be trusted to actually protect the Saudis? Can the US stop Iran getting nukes?
The Iranian Government is scared of the demonstrations that won’t go away. And Iran is having major economic issues. Perhaps a deal would improve their economy. Perhaps making a deal with the Saudis helps Iran by opening access to Mecca for the Haj? And Lebanon is in very bad shape, and is controlled by Iranian proxies, Herzbollah.
And perhaps part of the deal is putting their nukes on hold, and stop the Yemen civil war Iran supports. And perhaps ends the Syrian Civil War.
Both sides / governments could emerge stronger economically and politically.
The enemy of my enemy...? The US leadership can't make a deal understanding Russia has a Sovereign right of self-protection (*much has already been said of how the USA would never accept, say Mexico becoming Russian) yet avowed, millennial enemies are uniting does say quite a lot. Tis' amazing how different this world has evolved into in 26 Months of 'Biden' leadership...
Kissinger said that there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in international relations, only interests (I think he was quoting someone else but whatever). That is one of the foundational maxims of Realpolitik that is evidently true. These are alliances made out of perceived needs and self interest - all triggered by the actions of the U.S. under the Biden admin, of Davos, and of Western Europe. When the threat to KSA, Iran, Syria, Turkey, India, and others now aligning with Russia and China is deemed to be sufficiently reduced, the historical fissures will reappear. On a brighter note, lots of us have wanted the U.S. out of the Middle East for decades - looks like that could now happen as nobody will want us there or need us anymore.
We certainly have shown that we are not trustworthy. As President Putin has remarked America is agreement incapable. Not exactly a badge of honor. I think one reason, we are seeing this remarkable realignment in the Global South because one man,one leader, President Putin stood up and said exactly what everyone has known for some time.
It would appear Xi, like History Lass suggests about Putin, is standing up. This article left me with this as a take-away to remember:
"Clearly, the durability of the Saudi-Iranian deal should not be underestimated. The Saudi-Iranian agreement will remain West Asia’s most important development for a long time."
America's leadership is entrapped in the Neo-Con tunnel-vision of US hegemony-both financial (appearing to be failing) and Militarily. Killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians furthering that agenda isn't a good look either. And the elected leadership appears dazed and coerced into ongoing failure after failure. At we citizen-taxpayer's expense.
Bullying as a tactic makes no friends. And who, having been abused, doesn't enjoy seeing a payback? I suspect the huge majority of the world's populace that's represented by countries receptive to an alternate-dollar international payment system will kind of enjoy when the bully the USA has become gets it's (sadly) much deserved black-eye. Of the 1.2 Billion that today are still accepting of the Dollar's hegemony, it won't really be a surprise if many happily embrace a bi or multi-polar financial world. Always wish you the best Ray! (WrH)
I don't think there are any "slow news days" these days, Mark. Just "less fast" ones. Things are piling up very quickly. With each day that passes, a whole new multi-polar world is growing up. We ordinary folks need to be fleet of foot to avoid the stampeding mastodons.
G'day Mark and all, May be it's a slow news day but I'd note extremely important news is unfolding.
UBS supported by US Fed: Russia/China/Gulf alliances being strengthened w/Iran-Saudi 'Architecture' revealed: not-noted herein the seemingly desperate Ukrainian Bahmut offensive coming (ahead of an expected 'Spring Offensive') which -per Simplicius- if unsuccessful would seriously impair said Spring Offensive capability: considering today's posting these seem to reveal a US Neo-con/Cabal failure set producing an extremely dangerous positioning of the United States and by extension, it's citizens.
I've left out the civil issues that I think are relevant; however the incompetence and unwillingness for considering diplomacy of the US Gov't leadership is leading towards an unimaginable Nuclear option for resolution. My election concerns (etc.) pale in that light. I really do not like the fact avoiding such options rests on Putin, Xi and the alleged 'enemies of mankind' our Leadership presents as enemies requiring their actions. Finance to Military: US Hegemony is appearing to be a source for evil actions. What Has Happened to us? Best wishes for all from Idaho - where Fallout kills just as anywhere else might experience. (WrH)
I worry about the neocons and nukes too, Wayne. This is not just a regular screw-up like Afghanistan, where the neocons can just walk away and the MSM will provide covering fire. This is their whole world view being torn apart. I can't imagine these folks going quietly into the good night. Surely in the corridors of power there are some powerful figures who are sick of all this and don't want to end their days eating irradiated dog food in a cave in the Rockies?
When cornered, fanged-beasts become unpredictable excepting to expect the worst. 'They' won't calm down: saving face is the least of their motivators leaving worst-case behaviors seemingly the only option for them. Their weakness of judgement is not cured by having the power a Nuke option provides in their pocket. Our 'President' already has 'publicly discussed' Armageddon - it's never ever good strategy to lead with your least-desirable yet most potent weapon as a threat.
How did we get here? I bet not even democrat voters think this was what they were choosing... :^) Best at ya S'21! (WrH)
It does seem like the Middle East has discovered they have a common enemy, and are joining together to push back.
Access to oil should is a big priority to US interests. How this manifests? Going on the last few years, any action, however inconceivable, could occur.
The irony is that the US could be maximising its own oil and natgas reserves and getting the same from Russia at cheap prices. But the neocons thought differently.
*and with energy production & trade we'd have a powerful tool. Ol' Joe has drained much of the 'Strategic' reserve: oh, I get it: Strategic is like the word strategy. Who needs it?
Evidently he sold alot of our strategic reserves to China.
Biden is beyond compromised. I don't remember if it was Simplicus or Mark who said that Biden has the Sword of Damocles above numerous. Appropriate description
If the DoJ itself was not politically weaponised and corrupted the counts of treason for Zhou would be numerous.
ML: Thank you for the clarification. We all have access to so many erudite, brilliant, and thoughtful geo political writers that it is hard at times to remember which of them said what :-)
I always look forward to Dr Bhadrakumur thoughts.
I find it fascinating that there is a coming together of many ancient/millennium civilizational societies. Russia, China, India, Syria, Persia/Iran. Are Iraq and Turkiye next?
Yes. The big mistake was to think to take that 50% role for granted, as if it could continue indefinitely, instead of planning for the future which would inevitably involve a shrinking share as other nations got back in the game. IMO, making the $ the reserve currency was a major factor in the hollowing out of our manufacturing sector and encouraging a focus on military power and domination.
Like you, it's laugh or else cry. I'm fortunate to have lived relatively well with so many un-countable blessings... but my heart aches for my Grandkids. But morose is not my preference... I will say the folks I've read and interacted with here have been a treat. Thanks for your contributions! (WrH)
The tunnel vision you note seems to still affect Drezner. Quite incredible given his many years as an analyst. How can he possibly not see the defensive reasons (both militarily and economically) for this "reorientation away from the West" given that the U.S. and NATO are carrying out a kinetic and economic war against Russia and threatening to do so with China? Does he not understand how the hastening of "Belt and Road" and the "International North-South Corridor" are also in reaction to Western hegemony and reflect these countries' desire for independence from the West? No everything has to be "good vs. evil" and anyone not submitting to the West is by definition evil. Amazing and frightening that these are the people running our foreign policy now.
I had hoped that the fall of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact would effectively be the end of the Neocon warmongering (and in fact the end of NATO). Silly me. I didn't see the Bushes coming along and bringing back the "making the world safe for Democracy" excuse for continued support of the military industrial intelligence complex.
"Increasingly it appears that in the future US influence in the region will be limited by its ability to project raw military power into the region. And that ability is ebbing along with the influence of the dollar."
What will limit US influence in the region is the sheer incompetence of the American regime at diplomacy. We went out of our way to alienate Saudi Arabia. No matter how much raw military power we can or cannot project, we can only exert influence in conjunction with one or more regional allies. if we doubled the amount of military power we could project but still had no allies in the region with who we could work, no friendly country where we could not land a plane, our acual influence would still be marginal at best. The Biden regime went on jihad against Saudi Arabia over that journalist they wasted. I won't defend the Saudi's actions, but the way we treated them over the incident was always going to carry a cost.
LIdell Hart, in his book Strategy, reminds us that "The enemy of today is the ally of tomorrow and the customer of next week". We now have Russia as a permanent enemy. Even if regime change in Russia were a feasible goal it would be insane, because if you destroy Russia, then China, which has a lot of territorial claims against Russia, will pick up a hell of a lot of territory and resources in Asia increasing its relative power. How does this make the world a better or safer place? How does this further American interests? This is the product of people who lack basic diplomacy fu.
European statesmen once understood that the Great Powers had to adjust their claims against one another as they came up. You cooperated with other powers when you could and when your interests conflicted you tried to resolve that while avoiding a Great Power war, especially a war between coalitions of Great Powers, because that was incredibly dangerous, destructive, and unpredictable. The people in charge understand hegemony, and use the word hegemon quite a lot in their writings. They know only how to dictate to subservient satellites powers. They do not know how to practice diplomacy on the level I am describing. Thie incompetence dooms them to well deserved defeat and they may take the rest of us down with them.
Like the man said, can't anyone here play this game?
Sidebar: I am less impressed than most with the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. The Mullahs may keep their commitments to the Saudis and the Chinese, but if they do it will be a first.
The American elite or ruling class are still practicing diplomacy and international relationships like a kindergarten bully. They have no finesse, manners, or class. Hillary and her stupid Reset button, Obama presenting Her Majesty with recordings of his speeches, and then Trump and his name calling. The present spectacle of the current WH occupant shouting, shaking his fist, insulting so called allies as Pariahs, murderers and calling for regime change from the podium with the Presidential seal of the US is pathetic. The diplomats of State are no better. They are ignorant of history, culture and traditions of other nations. Nor do they seem to care that they are lacking. They sneer and look down on everyone not like them.
The Kremlin certainly rolled out the Red Carpet for Comrade Xi. I am sure that the most exacting protocols were observed along with polite words on top of polite words. It all looked very elegant and nice.
I have to wonder whether the jihad against KSA was also driven by a desire to exact retribution for KSA's good relations with Trump.
Q: Examples of Iran failing to keep commitments that they've made?
The answer to your question is probably yes. Anything Trump had done was to be repudiated.
Iran never abided by the nuclear agreement they made with us. The Saudis likely have bad memories of the Iranians smuggling Scud missiles into Yemen and pretending these had been put together by Dark Ages tribesmen in a cave somewhere who then launched them into Saudi Arabia. Iran waged a proxy war against Saudi Arabia for some time. I can certainly understand the Chinese seeking a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, since they import a lot of oil from the Gulf, and any trouble there is very much against their interests. The agreement may hold. I would not bet a plugged Yuan on it.
"Iran never abided by the nuclear agreement they made with us."
That was a coerced agreement, which shows the problem with sanctions. These agreements are different because they're aimed at integrating Iran into a new economic as well as a new security regime for the entire Eurasian area. To what degree the Saudis were coerced is a legit question, but there is also little doubt that they had economic and security interests that went beyond Iran and that had them looking for a more reliable partner than the US. Ultimately, Russia and China (and perhaps India) are the guarantors of this new regime and will not smile on anyone upsetting it from within.
"To what degree the Saudis were coerced is a legit question"
Coerced by the Chinese? My answer to that question is that I doubt very much that they were. Saudi Arabia has a military of doubtful effectiveness and needs security from Iran, which has waged a long running war against it. If it cannot get security from America because of the pathologies of the Biden regime, then it must seek security elsewhere. China can't keep a large military presence in the Gulf (Yet!) but it can broker a deal between Riyadh and Tehran, and if that's the best the Saudis can get it's the best they can get. No coercion involved. If Iran doesn't keep its end of the bargain (And I shall be surprised if it does) then the Saudis are no worse off than they are now.
International agreements are frequently "coerced". We do not live in an ideal world. In fact, the Iranians were not coerced into signing anything, they were offered a way out of ending their nuclear program and any American pressure to do so by an Administration that never took the issue seriously,
I was talking about pressure through the Yemen proxy war. You're treating this as a strictly Chinese brokered deal. In fact Russia has played a very large role in this. Teheran will not lightly disregard its undertakings which were made not simply to KSA but also to Russia and China. Iran has a lot to gain from the smooth working out of the new regime.
I missed seeing this. The missile war out of Yemen was never as effective as all that and a plate of fries. The US provided Patriot missiles for defense. The very limited number of Scuds Iran could smuggle in couldn't overwhelm those. There was a drone swarm attack on a Saudi oil facility that scared the bejabbers out of the Saudis because it was an unexpected form of attack against which they had no defense, It was afterwards claimed that the Yemeni tribesmen put those together in their caves somewhere, in fact they were launched from Iran.
I doubt that Russia had a lot to do with this particular deal though in fact they do have dealings with Iran (Witness the drones for fighters swap) China has a huge interest here and more influence. China imports a lot of Gulf oil. Russia is self sufficient.
EDIT: Even when a Patriot destroyed a Scud in flight, pieces parts were still raining down on Saudi territory. Hitting a missile doesn't entirely end the problem
“…but it is certainly remarkable that neither the US nor Israel, both countries presumably with an ear to the ground throughout the Middle East, didn’t have an inkling of what was going on…” the “tune out” method of intelligence gathering, guaranteed to lead to disaster.
It's times like these that make me hopeful. Our kiddies in Washington are playing at the game they know best, politics, and assuming that is what this is all about. We are not players on the world stage at all, and even domestic matters will work their way out independent of Washington. Sure, they will throw a monkey wrench left and right, but their basic incompetence prevents them from being particularly effective in messing things up, Joe's specialty. Iran and the Saudis finding common ground effectively locks us out, and even Israel, having done deals with the Saudis, will survive. The American citizen will also survive, mostly by ignoring Washington. I count on Russia and China to exercise restraint, as they can safely assume the US is a paper tiger and not united at all.
I will believe there is a substantive rapprochement between the Sunnis and the Shia, between the Sauds and the Persians when I see it in action.
Call me skeptical.
The USA and KSA (who took that acronym to emulate America) have a long-standing relationship. Team Zhou is screwing the pooch, sure. And perhaps once the democrat party of the USSA is firmly in dictatorial control for the foreseeable future, then yeah, the KSA will step firmly away from the USA.
Right now, these signals are simply tactical moves.
As to the CHICOM influence in the area,
good luck to them, hah.
~~~
Truth be told, if the CHICOMs could/could bring a general rapprochement between all warring ME factions, between the Sunnis and the Shias, we, and the rest of the world, should simply, joyfully, and humby offer our profound "Thanks."
I’m suspicious of any deal with both sides being ruthless religious fanatics that see the others as heretics, and can’t be trusted, but both sides have interests that are advanced by a deal.
The Biden Administration has managed to scare the Saudis, both politically and economically. Will they be next to be charged by The Hague? Will the Petrodollar lose all its value? Will the US be trusted to actually protect the Saudis? Can the US stop Iran getting nukes?
The Iranian Government is scared of the demonstrations that won’t go away. And Iran is having major economic issues. Perhaps a deal would improve their economy. Perhaps making a deal with the Saudis helps Iran by opening access to Mecca for the Haj? And Lebanon is in very bad shape, and is controlled by Iranian proxies, Herzbollah.
And perhaps part of the deal is putting their nukes on hold, and stop the Yemen civil war Iran supports. And perhaps ends the Syrian Civil War.
Both sides / governments could emerge stronger economically and politically.
The enemy of my enemy...? The US leadership can't make a deal understanding Russia has a Sovereign right of self-protection (*much has already been said of how the USA would never accept, say Mexico becoming Russian) yet avowed, millennial enemies are uniting does say quite a lot. Tis' amazing how different this world has evolved into in 26 Months of 'Biden' leadership...
Kissinger said that there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in international relations, only interests (I think he was quoting someone else but whatever). That is one of the foundational maxims of Realpolitik that is evidently true. These are alliances made out of perceived needs and self interest - all triggered by the actions of the U.S. under the Biden admin, of Davos, and of Western Europe. When the threat to KSA, Iran, Syria, Turkey, India, and others now aligning with Russia and China is deemed to be sufficiently reduced, the historical fissures will reappear. On a brighter note, lots of us have wanted the U.S. out of the Middle East for decades - looks like that could now happen as nobody will want us there or need us anymore.
The issue is Nobody trusts the US, which is why nobody in the Middle East wants us around. Everyone feels threatened by us.
We certainly have shown that we are not trustworthy. As President Putin has remarked America is agreement incapable. Not exactly a badge of honor. I think one reason, we are seeing this remarkable realignment in the Global South because one man,one leader, President Putin stood up and said exactly what everyone has known for some time.
Now they feel they can come out from the shadows?
https://www.indianpunchline.com/free-will-trumps-determinism-in-gulf-politics/
It would appear Xi, like History Lass suggests about Putin, is standing up. This article left me with this as a take-away to remember:
"Clearly, the durability of the Saudi-Iranian deal should not be underestimated. The Saudi-Iranian agreement will remain West Asia’s most important development for a long time."
America's leadership is entrapped in the Neo-Con tunnel-vision of US hegemony-both financial (appearing to be failing) and Militarily. Killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians furthering that agenda isn't a good look either. And the elected leadership appears dazed and coerced into ongoing failure after failure. At we citizen-taxpayer's expense.
Bullying as a tactic makes no friends. And who, having been abused, doesn't enjoy seeing a payback? I suspect the huge majority of the world's populace that's represented by countries receptive to an alternate-dollar international payment system will kind of enjoy when the bully the USA has become gets it's (sadly) much deserved black-eye. Of the 1.2 Billion that today are still accepting of the Dollar's hegemony, it won't really be a surprise if many happily embrace a bi or multi-polar financial world. Always wish you the best Ray! (WrH)
And hectoring
Lots of financial pressure building that is about to be released.
The problem is nobody knows how it will be released.
I don't think there are any "slow news days" these days, Mark. Just "less fast" ones. Things are piling up very quickly. With each day that passes, a whole new multi-polar world is growing up. We ordinary folks need to be fleet of foot to avoid the stampeding mastodons.
Right. Plenty going on but developmental rather than 'breaking' new.
Haven't heard of them. I guess from the name that they aren't like the Osmonds?
I find myself wondering how much of what we've been told regarding why we must have direct involvement in ME affairs was neocon (or other) bull...
G'day Mark and all, May be it's a slow news day but I'd note extremely important news is unfolding.
UBS supported by US Fed: Russia/China/Gulf alliances being strengthened w/Iran-Saudi 'Architecture' revealed: not-noted herein the seemingly desperate Ukrainian Bahmut offensive coming (ahead of an expected 'Spring Offensive') which -per Simplicius- if unsuccessful would seriously impair said Spring Offensive capability: considering today's posting these seem to reveal a US Neo-con/Cabal failure set producing an extremely dangerous positioning of the United States and by extension, it's citizens.
I've left out the civil issues that I think are relevant; however the incompetence and unwillingness for considering diplomacy of the US Gov't leadership is leading towards an unimaginable Nuclear option for resolution. My election concerns (etc.) pale in that light. I really do not like the fact avoiding such options rests on Putin, Xi and the alleged 'enemies of mankind' our Leadership presents as enemies requiring their actions. Finance to Military: US Hegemony is appearing to be a source for evil actions. What Has Happened to us? Best wishes for all from Idaho - where Fallout kills just as anywhere else might experience. (WrH)
I worry about the neocons and nukes too, Wayne. This is not just a regular screw-up like Afghanistan, where the neocons can just walk away and the MSM will provide covering fire. This is their whole world view being torn apart. I can't imagine these folks going quietly into the good night. Surely in the corridors of power there are some powerful figures who are sick of all this and don't want to end their days eating irradiated dog food in a cave in the Rockies?
When cornered, fanged-beasts become unpredictable excepting to expect the worst. 'They' won't calm down: saving face is the least of their motivators leaving worst-case behaviors seemingly the only option for them. Their weakness of judgement is not cured by having the power a Nuke option provides in their pocket. Our 'President' already has 'publicly discussed' Armageddon - it's never ever good strategy to lead with your least-desirable yet most potent weapon as a threat.
How did we get here? I bet not even democrat voters think this was what they were choosing... :^) Best at ya S'21! (WrH)
…if “democrat voters” think at all…
They feel, not think
It does seem like the Middle East has discovered they have a common enemy, and are joining together to push back.
Access to oil should is a big priority to US interests. How this manifests? Going on the last few years, any action, however inconceivable, could occur.
The irony is that the US could be maximising its own oil and natgas reserves and getting the same from Russia at cheap prices. But the neocons thought differently.
*and with energy production & trade we'd have a powerful tool. Ol' Joe has drained much of the 'Strategic' reserve: oh, I get it: Strategic is like the word strategy. Who needs it?
Evidently he sold alot of our strategic reserves to China.
Biden is beyond compromised. I don't remember if it was Simplicus or Mark who said that Biden has the Sword of Damocles above numerous. Appropriate description
If the DoJ itself was not politically weaponised and corrupted the counts of treason for Zhou would be numerous.
I agree! the sword of Damocles was alluded to by the erudite Bhadrakumar!
ML: Thank you for the clarification. We all have access to so many erudite, brilliant, and thoughtful geo political writers that it is hard at times to remember which of them said what :-)
I always look forward to Dr Bhadrakumur thoughts.
I find it fascinating that there is a coming together of many ancient/millennium civilizational societies. Russia, China, India, Syria, Persia/Iran. Are Iraq and Turkiye next?
Yes, why not add Babylon and Byzantium to the list!
Sad but true. Justice was a mark of a pretty good country, in my recollection... faint memories there. Best at you HL! (WrH)
Yes. The big mistake was to think to take that 50% role for granted, as if it could continue indefinitely, instead of planning for the future which would inevitably involve a shrinking share as other nations got back in the game. IMO, making the $ the reserve currency was a major factor in the hollowing out of our manufacturing sector and encouraging a focus on military power and domination.
RNo - you're on top of your (cynical) humor today... Funny those! (WrH)
Like you, it's laugh or else cry. I'm fortunate to have lived relatively well with so many un-countable blessings... but my heart aches for my Grandkids. But morose is not my preference... I will say the folks I've read and interacted with here have been a treat. Thanks for your contributions! (WrH)
The tunnel vision you note seems to still affect Drezner. Quite incredible given his many years as an analyst. How can he possibly not see the defensive reasons (both militarily and economically) for this "reorientation away from the West" given that the U.S. and NATO are carrying out a kinetic and economic war against Russia and threatening to do so with China? Does he not understand how the hastening of "Belt and Road" and the "International North-South Corridor" are also in reaction to Western hegemony and reflect these countries' desire for independence from the West? No everything has to be "good vs. evil" and anyone not submitting to the West is by definition evil. Amazing and frightening that these are the people running our foreign policy now.
I had hoped that the fall of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact would effectively be the end of the Neocon warmongering (and in fact the end of NATO). Silly me. I didn't see the Bushes coming along and bringing back the "making the world safe for Democracy" excuse for continued support of the military industrial intelligence complex.