Monday Came And Went, Zhou's Still Here

Amid reports of Big Money donors bailing and growing revulsion at the idea of a senile president, Zhou and Jill may be clawing their way back to control of the Dem party. Michael Tracey has been steadily lowering the odds for a Zhou departure of one sort or another:

Michael Tracey @mtracey

I'm revising down my odds again of Biden withdrawing from 25% to 20%. He's locking down support from key Democratic Party constituencies. Biden-opposing Dems are frozen into a kind of awkward, painful inaction. Hakeem Jeffries doesn't seem to have moved. Neither has Schumer.

We were told the "dam was going to break" today, and there's been a total of one additional House member publicly saying Biden should go (Adam Smith, D-WA). The statements of reaffirmed support have been much more resounding.

"Dem insiders" seem to be more preoccupied with hashing out fantastical hypothetical scenarios of how to hold weird game show competitions to pick a new nominee, without focusing on how they actually get rid of the current nominee, which is becoming less and less tenable (if it was ever tenable in the first place, which I doubt.)

Biden just has to run out the clock, possibly only to next week (GOP convention.) DNC says it may hold a "virtual roll call" vote as early as July 21. That's less than two weeks away. "Dem insiders" have a major collective action problem that they don't appear any closer to resolving. If there even was a "resolution" to begin with, which again seems doubtful.

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Pablo Manríquez @PabloReports

15h

NEW. @AOC tells us she has had extensive conversations with Joe Biden and supports him as the Democratic nominee against the convicted felon Donald Trump.

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8:19 PM · Jul 8, 2024

Well, I did say it wouldn’t be easy.

Now, remember what I said—citing Steve Sailer’s theories—about the steady rebranding of the Dem party? I thought the CBC might try to become the Queenmaker for Kama Sutra in a big power grab, but they apparently prefer playing it safe. In the end the result isn’t that different: They’re in control. Going forward, how will the “insiders” feel about this, especially if the Zhou campaign crashes and burns?

Michael Tracey @mtracey

While the "Dem insiders" have been gaming out fanciful scenarios about how to best placate Kamala supporters once Joe goes, they forgot to check in with the Congressional Black Caucus, whose chairman is steadfastly backing Biden. Maybe the "insiders" got ahead of themselves?

12:32 PM · Jul 8, 2024

They live in a fantasy world where coming to terms with Black politics isn’t necessary—not even checking in with the CBC. That seems like a real fantasy in a world where Black voters are the indispensable base of the Dem party. How many non-Black Dem voters understand that without Black votes the Dem party would be virtually extinct? And what that means? Even the so-called “insiders” seem not to quite get it. Will they pay attention to the schooling they’re getting, rebel, take their money and go home, or what? The “or what?” could end up being the donor class pulling the plug on Zhou but continuing the support for everyone below him in the ticket, but that leaves fundamental party issues unaddressed. BTW, here’s an example of one of those fanciful game show type scenarios that self identifying “Dem insiders” are indulging in:

Michael Tracey @mtracey

OK, this really is becoming like a "West Wing" fantasy. James Carville, writing in the NYT, wants Obama and Bill Clinton to select a pool of eligible Dem candidates and jointly host some sort of TV game show to crown a winner. Why not just do another season of "The Apprentice"?

7:22 PM · Jul 8, 2024

One thing is for certain: It remains popcorn time. Too much has been pushed out in front of the typically somnolent “registered voter” demographic to pull it back and pretend none of this happened. At least in some sort of rational world that would seem to be the case. Much will depend on how Trump responds to all this. Speaking of which …

Here’s another long Tracey post, and I’ve included some comments that followed the post:

Michael Tracey @mtracey

I talked to some Trump guys who were protesting Gavin Newsom's event in Bucks County, PA this past weekend. More than protesting, they were registering voters, so more power to 'em. They asked me if I was registered, and who I was going to vote for. I of course replied that I was going to vote for neither Biden nor Trump. Naturally, they wanted to probe me for my views.

I said that neither party is worthy of tribal fealty and I oppose the hysterical partisan propaganda that corrupts American minds every election cycle. I also pointed out that Trump commands an absolutely preposterous and in some ways historically unprecedented cult of personality. I explained that I am against politician-worshipping personality cults.

They replied that Trump is not a politician.

Uh, what? I responded. This is the third time he's run for president. (It's actually arguably the fifth time he's run for president, if you count his pre-presidential run in 2012 and his Reform Party campaign in 2000, when he actually competed in primaries against Pat Buchanan.)

He's the quintessence of a politician at this juncture, I explained. He's the undisputed kingpin of the Republican Party.

No, they insisted, he's not a politician. They're declared that they are definitely not members of any sort of personality cult.

I pointed out they were wearing muscle shirts with Trump's face on them.

They still didn't make the connection.

He can't be bought, they said, unlike "real" politicians.

They appeared to be crypto guys of some kind. I pointed out that Trump used to call crypto a scam, and has now changed his tune after getting lots of money from crypto donors. That's absolutely typical of how politicians operate, I said. They insisted no.

I pointed out that Trump is getting at least $100 million from the Adelson fortune to stake out an even more extreme position on Israel than Biden. They denied this. They insisted that Trump is against killing innocents in Gaza, and opposes Biden's policy because it's too war-like.

I took out my phone and read them exact verbatim quotes from Trump on Israel, including from the recent debate. They objected that these quotes must've been tainted by the "MSM." I said my source was Trump's mouth. They still objected.

I will say this in that regard. The negotiations for the Adelman money appear to have been long and tough. As with crypto donors, the question is: Can Trump, in what may be his last term, actually be nailed down? Is it as simple as him being “for sale,” or is it more complicated? None of us really know. We’re all trying to make educated guesses.

They were nice enough guys, but they demonstrated all the characteristics of politician hero-worship, to a tee. You can't reason with it.

They knew full well I wasn't making an argument for Biden. Or any other candidate. I told them I won't vote or will write in Fred Flintstone.

They're the type of guys who hate the vaccine and lockdowns. They insisted that was all Fauci and the CIA, not Trump.

I told them Trump still, to this day, takes credit for saving millions of lives with his COVID policies. They objected.

Of course, Trump taking credit for the supposed life saving injections and the Covid Hoax being a CIA op are not mutually exclusive.

As usual, everything "good" was thanks to Trump, everything "bad" was some nefarious interloper who tricked or manipulated Trump.

That's the hallmark of personality cult thinking.

Again, nice enough guys, but politician hero-worship (yes, most definitely including Trump) ought to be officially classified as a brain disease.

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9:57 AM · Jul 8, 2024

Selected comments:

CA Detective @redcrown215

bro this is twitter, not a victorian novel

Michael Tracey @mtracey

If you don't have the attention span to read 500 words on this text-based web app, I extend my sincerest sympathies. Please pass along your Victorian Novel recommendations, I'm sure you've read a ton

Michael Tracey @mtracey

I think many Trump supporters are still stuck in 2016. They love the version of Trump who was nominally against "the system." They then pick and choose the stuff from his presidency that they like, and discard the rest. But it's almost like he wasn't president and they're clinging to a nostalgic fantasy of Trump

I keep coming back to the SCOTUS, which has been Trump’s real legacy and remains—almost paradoxically—the best hope for restoring an American Republic, for lack of any other functioning constitutional institution. This is Trump’s SCOTUS and, while his picks haven’t been uniformly perfect, anyone who thinks they haven’t made a difference hasn’t been paying attention. Politics is rarely a magic wand moment.

Katherine van K @kattitfortat

We’re not voting presidents. We’re voting tactics. And this year the message needs be that this atrocious lawfare by the Dems against their opponents will not stand. I hope by the time the election comes around, you rethink.

Eric 𝕏 @WorldStrategist

Interesting. What it shows is that because Trump is sort of the last hope in the Republican party to go against the establishment and the warmongering etc., they cling very hard to the hope that Trump will - despite some of the things he says - nonetheless be against the wars and against the establishment.

Did you try mentioning Bobby Kennedy as an alternative idea? And see how they react to the notion of him carrying forward the agenda they are hoping for..

The sad reality in the United States is that there is almost no candidate capable of doing that. They would need a candidate with considerable financial resources, to have some level of freedom of decision making.

Such as Elon Musk.

so they are effectively displaying what their hopes are rather than what the reality is… well it's better that than completely losing Hope I guess.

that's why most Star Trek episodes try to portray a beautiful version of the future with Hope, even though in reality, the odds are not great as @WilliamShatner once pointed out.

Cyrus Graduate @dj___fresh 

well good tweet but i hope u are lucid enough to still vote for the better of two choices even tho they both suck

The Blonde King @_BlondeKing 

He's the guy that makes the least amount of compromize for the most amount of money. Happy? Sadly you can't ask for more.

Jean Luc I. @67in1 

I miss your point. You just criticize left and right and then what? Should people stop voting?

Mostly Peaceful Shark (9th acct) @1806705SM 

Trump bros are definitely in denial but I see it as desperation for a better country -- MOST Trump supporters view him as merely the path towards that goal, not their God

This is not the same as worshipping Trump as a human being. The "cult" term seem an exaggeration at times

H. Huntsman @HHuntsmanWrites 

I looked up passive aggressive in the dictionary and found this post.