Yeah, I know some time he is over zealous but he takes chances, calculated risks, and often times comes out on top. I'm gonna see this Cabinet seated and give them some time to sort things out.
I don’t think it makes any difference in Russia relations with whom Trump appoints. Facts on the Ukraine ground, which Russia is in the drivers seat, are what matters.
Theoretically it might help if Trump appointed somebody with a strong background and understanding of Russian history, etc. The twofold problem would remain. First, as you say, Russia knows what its interests are and aren't going to budge simply for someone who speaks Russian or something like that. Second, the US Senate probably wouldn't confirm anyone like that anyway.
I wonder if Trump is deliberately appointing Russiaphobic people for certain positions to get them confirmed, avoiding Russian collusion accusations, so he can later negotiate what he wants. Shades of John Bolton?
With Waltz and Gorka as Trump's chosen point men , the iron cage analogy becomes even more startling - the incumbent will need far more than bolt cutters to free himself from the shackles of his own creation.
I would beg to point out what I believe to be an error in this commentary. Mass X speed is momentum -- if you double the speed you double the momentum. Kinetic energy, which is what is important here, is proportional to mass X speed squared -- if you double the speed you quadruple the energy.
If I were a Russian military leader, here is how I would use one: London Bridge. Give 4 hours notice. Make sure everyone is cleared off. Time for word to spread. Then, here comes the Rod from God. Poof goes the bridge. And when the British people raise a hue and cry, asking, "why didn't you do anything to stop this?" The answer is, um, there is nothing that we could do. "So can the Russians do this any time, any where?" "Yes, that is correct. They have all of Europe covered."
Any Russian attack on NATO country will result in NATO escalation. Putin knows this. Further, NATO (US) has already seen the good Admiral suggest 1st strike options. No, I see Putin pounding Ukraine further and further.
The author has a similar idea. "As there is no defense possible against Oreshnik type weapons Russia could announce a strike on the U.S. controlled Redzikow base in Poland days or hours before it would take place. As the strike would be announced, conventional in type and would cause few if any casualties it seems unlikely that NATO would apply Article 5 to it and to hit back with force."
That is a card that can be played in good time according to Russian judgment. But it is a very valuable and volatile card to play and it leads to undetermined results at this time - best to withhold it and leverage it.
I was struck by Mearsheimer’s description of Trump being in an “iron cage” - quite an extreme image to convey that Trump has very little room to manoeuver in dealing with the various foreign policy debacles he has claimed he wants to solve. Oh boy…is the cage created by Trump himself or was he put there by his sworn enemies? I get that the Prof feels T’s cabinet choices have more than contributed to his predicament - but somehow an iron cage denotes something more sinister afoot. On verra bien…we shall see.
Yeah, if Trump has had autonomy in all of these "Anglo-Zionist" (formerly Neocon) appointments - i.e. Waltz, Gorka, Rubio, Stefanik, et. al. - it seems it would be relatively easy to extricate himself from this "Iron Cage." If not, well, there's our answer. Is he running the show? If not, Sad!
He's not making it easier with his FP appointments. These people do control their agencies and aren't easy to replace. Now we're seeing a major escalation in Syria aimed at Russia and Iran. Can Trump pull a rabbit out of that hat?
Spot on Cassander the cursed prognosticator. I for one enjoy your willingness to comment and project future with sound thinking and thoughtful reflection! Keep it going!
I continue to be amazed how much pundits and others under estimate Trump. Waltz and Gorka are simply background noise. Trump is already the President. Telling Netanyahu to agree to cease fire... now getting Mexico to halt immigration https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-mexico-stop-flow-migrants-after-speaking-mexican-president-following-tariff-threats
Yeah, I know some time he is over zealous but he takes chances, calculated risks, and often times comes out on top. I'm gonna see this Cabinet seated and give them some time to sort things out.
I don’t think it makes any difference in Russia relations with whom Trump appoints. Facts on the Ukraine ground, which Russia is in the drivers seat, are what matters.
Theoretically it might help if Trump appointed somebody with a strong background and understanding of Russian history, etc. The twofold problem would remain. First, as you say, Russia knows what its interests are and aren't going to budge simply for someone who speaks Russian or something like that. Second, the US Senate probably wouldn't confirm anyone like that anyway.
Agreed, someone that can drown out the noise from the UK/EU and their never ending desire to view "Russia bad".
I wonder if Trump is deliberately appointing Russiaphobic people for certain positions to get them confirmed, avoiding Russian collusion accusations, so he can later negotiate what he wants. Shades of John Bolton?
Example of 4D chess?
Arguing against that are his actual Russia policies first time around.
With Waltz and Gorka as Trump's chosen point men , the iron cage analogy becomes even more startling - the incumbent will need far more than bolt cutters to free himself from the shackles of his own creation.
I would beg to point out what I believe to be an error in this commentary. Mass X speed is momentum -- if you double the speed you double the momentum. Kinetic energy, which is what is important here, is proportional to mass X speed squared -- if you double the speed you quadruple the energy.
Thanks. That's a bit like exponentially scarier.
If I were a Russian military leader, here is how I would use one: London Bridge. Give 4 hours notice. Make sure everyone is cleared off. Time for word to spread. Then, here comes the Rod from God. Poof goes the bridge. And when the British people raise a hue and cry, asking, "why didn't you do anything to stop this?" The answer is, um, there is nothing that we could do. "So can the Russians do this any time, any where?" "Yes, that is correct. They have all of Europe covered."
Any Russian attack on NATO country will result in NATO escalation. Putin knows this. Further, NATO (US) has already seen the good Admiral suggest 1st strike options. No, I see Putin pounding Ukraine further and further.
The author has a similar idea. "As there is no defense possible against Oreshnik type weapons Russia could announce a strike on the U.S. controlled Redzikow base in Poland days or hours before it would take place. As the strike would be announced, conventional in type and would cause few if any casualties it seems unlikely that NATO would apply Article 5 to it and to hit back with force."
That is a card that can be played in good time according to Russian judgment. But it is a very valuable and volatile card to play and it leads to undetermined results at this time - best to withhold it and leverage it.
It is quite difficult to bluff an opponent (Vladimir V. Putin) who is holding an unbeatable hand. Will Donald & his minions ever understand ???
Seems easy to end to me. Ukraine surrenders. War ends.
Yeah but what is it that they will surrender? And what are the forces propping them up willing to surrender?
I really hope Trump can tell when the US has been defeated and not double down to Armageddon.
I was struck by Mearsheimer’s description of Trump being in an “iron cage” - quite an extreme image to convey that Trump has very little room to manoeuver in dealing with the various foreign policy debacles he has claimed he wants to solve. Oh boy…is the cage created by Trump himself or was he put there by his sworn enemies? I get that the Prof feels T’s cabinet choices have more than contributed to his predicament - but somehow an iron cage denotes something more sinister afoot. On verra bien…we shall see.
Yeah, if Trump has had autonomy in all of these "Anglo-Zionist" (formerly Neocon) appointments - i.e. Waltz, Gorka, Rubio, Stefanik, et. al. - it seems it would be relatively easy to extricate himself from this "Iron Cage." If not, well, there's our answer. Is he running the show? If not, Sad!
He's not making it easier with his FP appointments. These people do control their agencies and aren't easy to replace. Now we're seeing a major escalation in Syria aimed at Russia and Iran. Can Trump pull a rabbit out of that hat?
Thanks, as always, for your thoughts. I really, really hope you are right!
Spot on Cassander the cursed prognosticator. I for one enjoy your willingness to comment and project future with sound thinking and thoughtful reflection! Keep it going!