First, an explanation. We had a power outage last night and didn't get power back until 10:30am--so I'm playing catchup today.
Regarding comparisons of the current war to WWII on the Eastern Front ...
In fact, during WWII their were plenty of instances of collapse--on both sides. The differences between then and now ...
The Russians ended up falling back into a vast country with intact manufacturing and vast human resources. They took terrible losses, but the war was largely lost for Germany by 1942.
The German military leadership were masters of tactical defense, as they showed time after time. However, the Russians achieved breakthroughs that led to collapses of the German defensive lines and withdrawals over vast territories. Operation Bagration is only one example.
IOW, both the German and Russians--when either side was on defense--were able to trade area in large amounts to maintain cohesion. Each side also, on offense, at times had to rest and regroup before resuming the offense.
In Ukraine today the Ukrainian military is being destroyed largely in place--in their fortified front lines. If the Russians eventually force a large scale collapse Ukraine has no heartland to fall back to that offers either an intact manufacturing base and energy/transport infrastructure (even Germany maintained much of that until virtually the end) and lacks trained manpower.
The other factors make all this worse--morale is collapsing not only because of casualties but because of bad leadership, large elements of ethnic kinship and history, corrupt government.
So what happens when at the end of a bayonet, Russia imposes peace by taking everything from Kiev and to the East, including the entire Ukrainian Black Sea Coast Line?
The other question is how soon this will happen.
I don’t see what the West can do, rational or irrational, to stop this.
There is zero chance I see, of official Western troops on the ground.
And the idea of f-16’s taking off from Romania to get armed in Ukraine, then attack Russian forces, will have no impact. If this happens, as soon as they land in Ukraine they will be destroyed.
Macgregor been predicting collapse for 2 years now. I don't put much faith into these Western pundits on either side. I just think about how even Stalin took 7 years to get Western Ukraine under control after German Nazi benefactor was defeated! Slavs will fight to last man. Tough SOBs look how many Russians were killed by Germans - like 30 million and still didnt give up. Next thing Germans knew Russians were in Berlin. Ukrainians are Slavs like Russians are. Just as "hard to kill." I think Ukraine can fight for YEARS more. Mid 2025 at least IMO. Of course Russia will win, simple maths being 8x as big all things being equal, but will be much more deaths to get there.
Then, After that, maybe Putin will have a 7 year insurgency to deal with like Stalin did.
“Slavs will fight to last man . . . Ukrainians are Slavs like Russians are. Just as "hard to kill." I think Ukraine can fight for YEARS more.”
You are comparing apples to oranges. In WWII you are fighting an existential war against an enemy who literally wants to enslave and/or exterminate you (Nazi Gemany) vs. fighting an enemy (Russia) who (A) is not merely “also slavic” but practically the same ethnicity and speaks the same language; (B) was reluctant to go to war with you to begin with and (C) always had reasonable demands. The difference in terms of motive to continue fighting in these two situations is beyond huge.
“Of course Russia will win, simple maths being 8x as big all things being equal, but will be much more deaths to get there.”
If Russia’s likely victory hinged on its advantage in size, you would be seeing a typical attritional standoff playing out, where both sides suffer casualties at comparable rates but with the larger side merely outlasting the smaller. That is definitely NOT what has been happening. Among the many reasons why this is so is that post-soviet “Ukraine” is a highly dysfunctional state — economically, politically, ethnically, ideologically.
“Then, After that, maybe Putin will have a 7 year insurgency to deal with like Stalin did”
This only makes sense: (A) if “Putin” has the desire or will to conquer and rule ALL of Ukraine — i.e., including the most hostile and dysfunctional western part of the country. But, assuming Russia does end up occupying all that territory, (B) the population will have to not already be utterly exhausted by then — i.e., it will still need large numbers of fighting age men who remain motivated (see above) to stage the insurgency. And (C) the insurgency will need ongoing military and moral support from western sponsors.
Obviously Russia will take whole coast to land lock Ukraine for leverage into perpetuity, not to mention linking up with transnistria Russians - may go as far as Hungary so they have land bridge to Serbia so Russia can uparm them to the max - so there's potential there for Insurgency taking so much of western Ukraine. Anyway just my opinion mid 2025 at least till Ukraine Army expires then it goes underground- insurgency - time will tell.
NATO in some form will probably enter too. Western elites will not just let go of 500 years of global domination/dictating without a fight - supporting insurgency is least they will do.... This war has legs for YEARS IMO.
Macgregor and Davis are both former military men and students of history and they are right. Armies in high intensity warfare break up fast in many cases. But it has to do with cultural factors.
Look at the opposite examples: The Germans fought to the bitter end. The only reason the Japanese laid down their arms was because the Emperor told them to. Many in the Confederacy wanted to continue the fight. The only reason the South surrendered was because Robert E Lee said it was time to stop.
But the Ukraine with its high level of corruption , uninspiring leadership and its lack or sacrificial elites? I doubt it will survive much longer. Its army is breaking down because the new units have no leadership and the soldiers have no training or buy-in to the units they are in . The new guys....all they are ..... is FNGs , raw meat. The unit leaders and senior fighters? All they are doing is trying to hold on and because they have seen so much fighting, they know it is only a matter of time before they fall. Both the old and new troops are trapped in a death spiral and there is no stopping it.
There is no Emperor or R.E. Lee to inspire them to fight to the bitter end.
The problem will be with the NAZI units like Azov. They will never give up or stop. They will need to be hunted down and destroyed. The SBU types? Unless they are fanatics, (and many are not) they probably have their escape plans all worked out.
The sooner the victory of Russia over Ukraine happens the better for all concerned. What a terrible tragedy for the people of Ukraine (and Russia) this has been. It would be just if this outcome would be concomitant with the Biden family's fall; therefore I hope that it happens prior to the U.S. Presidential election. But make no mistake, the greed, delusion, and irrationality that led to the globalist and Biden family pillaging of the Ukraine could not have happened without Zelensky, his corrupt Ukraine government, and its corrupt associated corporations. Justice should happen (and will happen, as it always does) for all parties concerned.
All very true and well-said. However, the Bidens are only the most notorious pigs feeding at the trough of Ukraine. I would say the filthy lucre coming from the Ukraine cash register may rival that coming from the Israel cash register.
My understanding is the Russians with the large glide bombs can now quickly demolish any Ukrainian fortifications. And the Ukrainian’s / West has no cost effective way to stop them.
And Ukraine/ West has exhausted most of its stock of anti missiles, that don’t work well anyway.
While Russia has increased its production rate tremendously of missiles and glide bombs.
The West has not increased at the same rate the anti missile production.
Plus Russia is destroying the launchers in Ukraine.
Plus the Western anti missiles cost a lot more than the Russian glide bombs and missiles.
First, an explanation. We had a power outage last night and didn't get power back until 10:30am--so I'm playing catchup today.
Regarding comparisons of the current war to WWII on the Eastern Front ...
In fact, during WWII their were plenty of instances of collapse--on both sides. The differences between then and now ...
The Russians ended up falling back into a vast country with intact manufacturing and vast human resources. They took terrible losses, but the war was largely lost for Germany by 1942.
The German military leadership were masters of tactical defense, as they showed time after time. However, the Russians achieved breakthroughs that led to collapses of the German defensive lines and withdrawals over vast territories. Operation Bagration is only one example.
IOW, both the German and Russians--when either side was on defense--were able to trade area in large amounts to maintain cohesion. Each side also, on offense, at times had to rest and regroup before resuming the offense.
In Ukraine today the Ukrainian military is being destroyed largely in place--in their fortified front lines. If the Russians eventually force a large scale collapse Ukraine has no heartland to fall back to that offers either an intact manufacturing base and energy/transport infrastructure (even Germany maintained much of that until virtually the end) and lacks trained manpower.
The other factors make all this worse--morale is collapsing not only because of casualties but because of bad leadership, large elements of ethnic kinship and history, corrupt government.
Seems all the West is doing is increasing the psyops.
Since you can’t negotiate with Hitler.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bombshell-report-claims-russian-casualties?
So what happens when at the end of a bayonet, Russia imposes peace by taking everything from Kiev and to the East, including the entire Ukrainian Black Sea Coast Line?
The other question is how soon this will happen.
I don’t see what the West can do, rational or irrational, to stop this.
There is zero chance I see, of official Western troops on the ground.
And the idea of f-16’s taking off from Romania to get armed in Ukraine, then attack Russian forces, will have no impact. If this happens, as soon as they land in Ukraine they will be destroyed.
Macgregor been predicting collapse for 2 years now. I don't put much faith into these Western pundits on either side. I just think about how even Stalin took 7 years to get Western Ukraine under control after German Nazi benefactor was defeated! Slavs will fight to last man. Tough SOBs look how many Russians were killed by Germans - like 30 million and still didnt give up. Next thing Germans knew Russians were in Berlin. Ukrainians are Slavs like Russians are. Just as "hard to kill." I think Ukraine can fight for YEARS more. Mid 2025 at least IMO. Of course Russia will win, simple maths being 8x as big all things being equal, but will be much more deaths to get there.
Then, After that, maybe Putin will have a 7 year insurgency to deal with like Stalin did.
A lot of nonsense here.
“Slavs will fight to last man . . . Ukrainians are Slavs like Russians are. Just as "hard to kill." I think Ukraine can fight for YEARS more.”
You are comparing apples to oranges. In WWII you are fighting an existential war against an enemy who literally wants to enslave and/or exterminate you (Nazi Gemany) vs. fighting an enemy (Russia) who (A) is not merely “also slavic” but practically the same ethnicity and speaks the same language; (B) was reluctant to go to war with you to begin with and (C) always had reasonable demands. The difference in terms of motive to continue fighting in these two situations is beyond huge.
“Of course Russia will win, simple maths being 8x as big all things being equal, but will be much more deaths to get there.”
If Russia’s likely victory hinged on its advantage in size, you would be seeing a typical attritional standoff playing out, where both sides suffer casualties at comparable rates but with the larger side merely outlasting the smaller. That is definitely NOT what has been happening. Among the many reasons why this is so is that post-soviet “Ukraine” is a highly dysfunctional state — economically, politically, ethnically, ideologically.
“Then, After that, maybe Putin will have a 7 year insurgency to deal with like Stalin did”
This only makes sense: (A) if “Putin” has the desire or will to conquer and rule ALL of Ukraine — i.e., including the most hostile and dysfunctional western part of the country. But, assuming Russia does end up occupying all that territory, (B) the population will have to not already be utterly exhausted by then — i.e., it will still need large numbers of fighting age men who remain motivated (see above) to stage the insurgency. And (C) the insurgency will need ongoing military and moral support from western sponsors.
Obviously Russia will take whole coast to land lock Ukraine for leverage into perpetuity, not to mention linking up with transnistria Russians - may go as far as Hungary so they have land bridge to Serbia so Russia can uparm them to the max - so there's potential there for Insurgency taking so much of western Ukraine. Anyway just my opinion mid 2025 at least till Ukraine Army expires then it goes underground- insurgency - time will tell.
NATO in some form will probably enter too. Western elites will not just let go of 500 years of global domination/dictating without a fight - supporting insurgency is least they will do.... This war has legs for YEARS IMO.
Macgregor and Davis are both former military men and students of history and they are right. Armies in high intensity warfare break up fast in many cases. But it has to do with cultural factors.
Look at the opposite examples: The Germans fought to the bitter end. The only reason the Japanese laid down their arms was because the Emperor told them to. Many in the Confederacy wanted to continue the fight. The only reason the South surrendered was because Robert E Lee said it was time to stop.
But the Ukraine with its high level of corruption , uninspiring leadership and its lack or sacrificial elites? I doubt it will survive much longer. Its army is breaking down because the new units have no leadership and the soldiers have no training or buy-in to the units they are in . The new guys....all they are ..... is FNGs , raw meat. The unit leaders and senior fighters? All they are doing is trying to hold on and because they have seen so much fighting, they know it is only a matter of time before they fall. Both the old and new troops are trapped in a death spiral and there is no stopping it.
There is no Emperor or R.E. Lee to inspire them to fight to the bitter end.
The problem will be with the NAZI units like Azov. They will never give up or stop. They will need to be hunted down and destroyed. The SBU types? Unless they are fanatics, (and many are not) they probably have their escape plans all worked out.
.
Excellent comment.
Inshallah!
Companion piece:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfEQJsdLl9A
The sooner the victory of Russia over Ukraine happens the better for all concerned. What a terrible tragedy for the people of Ukraine (and Russia) this has been. It would be just if this outcome would be concomitant with the Biden family's fall; therefore I hope that it happens prior to the U.S. Presidential election. But make no mistake, the greed, delusion, and irrationality that led to the globalist and Biden family pillaging of the Ukraine could not have happened without Zelensky, his corrupt Ukraine government, and its corrupt associated corporations. Justice should happen (and will happen, as it always does) for all parties concerned.
All very true and well-said. However, the Bidens are only the most notorious pigs feeding at the trough of Ukraine. I would say the filthy lucre coming from the Ukraine cash register may rival that coming from the Israel cash register.
My understanding is the Russians with the large glide bombs can now quickly demolish any Ukrainian fortifications. And the Ukrainian’s / West has no cost effective way to stop them.
And Ukraine/ West has exhausted most of its stock of anti missiles, that don’t work well anyway.
While Russia has increased its production rate tremendously of missiles and glide bombs.
The West has not increased at the same rate the anti missile production.
Plus Russia is destroying the launchers in Ukraine.
Plus the Western anti missiles cost a lot more than the Russian glide bombs and missiles.
In the same vein, J6. Everything we've learned over four years raises serious questions about it having been a staged event.
Trump will make himself a dictator? Who staged a military occupation of DC for several months?
Takes one to know one: Zhou barricading himself in the WH is what dictators do, while rambling on about saving democracy! C’mon, man!
Not a joke!
Genocide free zone.