Mearsheimer Thinking About Syria

Yesterday John Mearsheimer, in the course of a long discussion, offered his current thinking on the situation in Syria to Judge Nap. As it happens, his current thinking is very similar what we’ve been talking about here. I’ve done a transcript of the relevant portion, but first a few words.

The context for Mearsheimer’s remarks is this. Judge Nap had just played a pair of videoclips of the HTS guy, Julani, in which Julani made two fairly notable statements:

• First, he strongly stated that whoever tells him what to say doesn’t want Russia to leave its bases.

• Second, he said he’s very open to talking with Iran, as long as Iran respects “Syrian” sovereignty.

Since it’s obvious that Turkey controls Julani, it seems equally obvious that Turkey is sending a message. My interpretation of that message is this. Erdogan is telling Russia and Iran that he’ll be very happy to keep them engaged in Syria as long as they recognize that Syria is now part of Turkey’s sphere of influence. Adjust your approach accordingly, Russia and Iran, and we can probably continue much as before.

Read Mearsheimer’s remarks and see if you don’t agree that that’s basically what’s going on. Mearsheimer also makes the further logical deduction from this that “Syria”), meaning Turkey, now sees the US (plus proxies) and Israel as the “mortal enemy”—at least for purposes of Syrian policy. And, in that struggle, Russia, Iran, and maybe China are very logical partners who will likely be quite flexible with regard to a Turkish sphere of influence. Mearsheimer frames this as what he thinks “Syria” will do, but it seems clear that this is really about Turkey, and how Turkey intends to deal with the Anglo-Zionists. They won’t want to go it alone. They’ll want get support from powerful regional players who have a strong interest in thwarting the Anglo-Zionists. It’s no mystery that the top candidates will be Russia and Iran.

Here we go:

Prof: I think what's going on here is that Julani understands that the Russians are a potential ally--an important potential ally. I think he understands that the Turks are an important potential ally--and maybe even the Iranians! You want to think about what was just said in those two clips that you played. One is, the Syrians are interested in keeping the Russians at those two bases, and the Syrians are interested in talking to the Iranians. And we know the Syrians and the Turks are working close together today. That leaves out two important players--the Israelis and the United States. Now you know the Israelis and the United States are joined at the hip--the Israelis basically drive our policy towards Syria, and what Israel wants to do is it wants to break apart Syria and keep it broken. The Israelis do not want a government that can control all the territory that is Syria because that is a potential enemy. They don't want Julani to dominate all of Syria--[Israel] wants to keep Syria broken apart and, of course, this means that's what the United States will want to do.

Well if you're running the government in Syria you have a vested interest in working against that, and then the question is, Who can [“Syria”] turn to to get help to deal with the Israelis and to deal with the Americans? The answer is, you start to think about the Russians, you start to think about the Turks, and you start to think about the Iranians. I think that--and I want to underline the word 'think'--I think that's what's going on here. I think the Syrians are coming to the realization that the real adversary is the United States, because the United States, of course, is doing Israel's bidding and Israel wants Syria to be broken into a number of different parts and Israel wants the freedom to roam into Syria whenever it wants and destroy this or destroy that. And of course the Syrians don't want that, so they're looking for allies, i.e., the Russians, the Turks, and the Iranians. By the way, if that's true the Iranians are back in Syria. That's a real possibility here.

Judge: It's hard for me to believe that the new government of Syria would have the Turks as an ally. Doesn't Erdogan want a third of Syria to become part of Turkey?

Prof: Well you want to remember that the new government in Syria was sponsored by the Turks, so they have good relations. Exactly how the Turks are now thinking about conquering territory in Syria is an open matter. We'll see. I think there's no question if the Syrians discover that the Turks want to cleave off a huge chunk of territory in the north this will not sit well with Syria but, assuming that doesn't happen--that the Turks are smart enough to avoid trying to recreate the Ottoman Empire--you could end up with a situation as I described to you a few minutes ago, where Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Russia are working quite closely together to help create a stable Syria.

Judge: According to Alistair Crooke, on January 17 Russia and Iran will be signing a mutual defense pact.

Prof: This is hardly surprising. This gets back to our earlier discussion, when you were asking me about Russia and China and I threw in Iran, and then we both started talking about North Korea, as well. I think the Iranians have a deep-seated interest in having close relations with the Russians, and the Russians have deep-seated interest in having close relations with the Iranians. These four countries--North Korea, China, Iran, and Russia--are mortal enemies of the United States. I think all four of these countries have now reached the point where they understand that the United States is--and I want to emphasize this word--a *mortal enemy*, and that they therefore have to work together to do everything they can to contain the United States.

Overall, it appears that the Turks are in a fairly strong position, given that the US and Israel basically invited them into Syria. Previously they had a limited role, but now they’re at the center of things. For now the US—in the closing days of the Zhou regime—is acting to protect the Kurdish proxies for Anglo-Zionism:

US Establishing New Military Base In Aleppo Province

For now it seems US troops are not only maintaining their bases in the northeast, where Syria's oil and gas fields are located, but are actually expanding the Pentagon presence, and very close to the border with Turkey.

…

The outlet cited its observers on the ground who say US forces brought in a convoy of 50 trucks carrying cement blocks to areas of northeast Syria controlled by the US proxy Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a group largely dominated by Syrian Kurds).

Ain Al-Arab is a district of Aleppo province in northern Syria. The area around Aleppo saw sporadic fighting between Syrian Kurds and HTS jihadists throughout December.

This move will be sure to antagonize Turkey, but was probably demanded by Israel. Turkey has a long standing interest in the Aleppo region due to the large Turkmen minority in northern Syria and also because something like 40% of the Syrian Arab refugees in Turkey—whom Turkey wants to repatriate—come from Aleppo. Thus, the US will be increasingly at odds with Turkey:

The United States is in a precarious position in Syria given that almost no group - with the exception of the Kurds - wants US troops occupying Syrian territory. Turkey has long accused Washington of supporting 'terrorists' given it sees the SDF as an extension of the outlawed PKK.

Damascus' new HTS rulers are certainly going to want access to the country's [American occupied] oil and gas fields, in order to deliver on promises of getting electricity and fuel back up and running for the population. The US has long held on to these energy resources for leverage, and to starve the prior Assad government of its resources, also amid sanctions. What will Trump do this time around?

For an interesting look at Iran’s role—suggesting Iranian acquiescence in the ouster of Assad—check out this article from 12/4/2024:

Syria’s crucible: Why the battle for Aleppo matters

As militants move on the city of two million, Damascus’ military weakness and Tehran’s inaction raise questions about the future

If true, Mearsheimer’s speculation about an Iranian return to Syria—this time with Turkey’s blessing based on a new understanding regarding Turkey’s sphere of influence—becomes even more plausible.