Mearsheimer On Trump's Dilemma (Part 2)

The transcript (partial and edited):

John Mearsheimer: Putin to Trump: a Response is Coming!

DD: You said something just before we came on the air I'd like to expand on a little bit. You said something like, "Yeah, we're screwed." What are your thoughts right now?

Prof: Well, I think that we are screwed on a number of different fronts. First of all, we are unable to shut down the genocide in Gaza. Number two, it's quite clear that we've reached a dead end in terms of a deal with Iran. With regard to the Ukraine war, there's no hope that we're going to shut this one down anytime soon. These are the three big issues that the Trump administration has been dealing with and, remember, when President Trump came into office he said he was going to shut down the Ukraine war, he was going to fix the Iran problem and so forth, and so on. He's done none of that, and I see little hope that he's going to fix any of these problems. Just to go to Iran quickly, if Trump doesn't get a deal with the Iranians he's promised that he's going to attack Iran. That's going to lead to disaster. That is not a viable option with regard to the Gaza genocide--I mean, can this really continue to go on and on and on and not do enormous damage to America's reputation and its relations with countries around the world? With regard to Russia, we're not going to shut that one down and, if we don't shut that one down, even when you get a frozen conflict at some point down the road, the potential for that frozen conflict to erupt again and then the potential for all of the various flash points that surround that conflict to blow up in our face are just very great. And we haven't even mentioned East Asia. China is supposed to be our number one threat. Our situation in East Asia has deteriorated over time because the Chinese are getting more and more powerful and the United States is bogged down in Ukraine and it is bogged down in the Middle East. So the situation deteriorates in East Asia. This is all disastrous. We are in real trouble.

...

Prof: There's only one way that Trump can end this war, and that is to agree to Russia's terms. Certainly he has to agree to every one of Russia's major demands. It's that simple. He could have done that when he took office on January 20th, or shortly thereafter. He could do it today, if he wanted, but he's been unwilling to do that. And as long as he's unwilling to do that he's just spinning his wheels. This is all a waste of time.

OK, but Mearsheimer never does tell us why Trump has largely continued the Anglo-Zionist war on Russia by seeking a ceasefire rather than peace. It’s because of the need for a fiscal reboot. It has nothing to do with a sincere desire for peace as such.

Trump on his phone call with Putin: "We also discussed Iran and the fact that time is running out on Iran's decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly. I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and on this I believe that we are in agreement. President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could perhaps be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It is my opinion that Iran has been slow walking their decision on this very important matter and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time."

DD: How do you interpret those events? Because you mentioned at the outset that this is one of the areas where we're in a bad situation. Does this change any of that?

Prof: No. This just shows you that Trump is desperate. He's asking Putin for help. 'Would you, Vladimir, help me solve the Iran nuclear problem?' The nub of the problem is that the administration--because of pressure from Israel and its supporters in the United States--insists that Iran give up its nuclear enrichment capability. The Iranians have said that under no circumstances will they give up their nuclear enrichment capability. Well, how do you solve that problem? The Americans have been trying to come up with clever schemes. They just came up with one clever scheme--I won't go into details--and the Iranians rejected it today. So we're back to square one, and we have no solution. The Israelis and their lobby here in the United States will not allow President Trump to allow the Iranians to have enrichment capability. And that has to be the case if you're going to get a deal. There has to be some concession to the Iranians that they can keep their enrichment capability--with certain limits, of course. But we can't do that. So Trump is in a position where, if he can't do that, he's promised he would bomb Iran. Good luck on that one! That would be a disaster! Trump, of course, understands that. His principal advisers understand that. He doesn't want to bomb Iran--he wants to work out a deal. But he can't work out a deal so he goes to Putin and he says, 'Mr Putin, would you please help me? Would you please help pull my chestnuts out of the fire on Iran?' That's what he's asking for.

DD: So what's your expectation of what Putin's answer will be?

Prof: First of all, Putin is not going to put any pressure on Iran to make concessions to the United States ... Putin would be a fool to help Trump solve the Iran problem. ... Trump is desperate. You cannot underestimate how much trouble Trump is in. Again go back to Gaza, look at Iran, go back to talking about Ukraine--Trump does not have solutions, and every one of these problems moving forward looks almost worse than it looks like now.

[long discussion of how screwed up our East Asia policy is.]

Remember, Donald Trump said he was going to win a great war against the Houthis. He was going to defeat them quickly and decisively. Well, that didn't happen, and Trump quit the war after 30 days. And why did he do that? Because we were expending so much precious ammunition that was needed in East Asia.

DD: And then we had Secretary Rubio admit in testimony about two weeks ago that, he says, 'Yeah one of the things that Zelensky keeps asking us for is more air defense weapons and Patriots.' And he said we don't have any. We don't have any to give and not many people in the rest of Europe do either. Revealing to anyone who cares on the other side that we're limited in our capacity, much less our production capacity, to sustain a conflict. That's not looking good. That doesn't help us anywhere.

You're talking about the problems we have with a number of adversaries--many of which are adversaries because we insist upon them being so.

It also shows the weakness of the US administration, frankly, because we cannot bring either Netanyahu to bear Zelensky to bear or the European members of NATO ... so, all in all, it's it's not a good day for America. We're in deep trouble.

Prof: I just want to go back to the Taiwan scenario and what Hegseth said. He said that we would win a war. There's no chance we would win a war against China.

It's important to emphasize that Trump inherited a set of very difficult problems. The Biden administration made a hash of things during its four years in office. ... But he's done hardly anything to fix those problems and, if anything, he's made those problems worse. And this is going to cause the United States of America huge problems moving forward.

Back to your question, What should President Trump do? I'm not sure what I would tell him to do at this point in time. I mean, I'm not sure there's any clear way out for him even if he behaves smartly. I think that with regard to the Middle East--and here we're talking about Iran and Gaza--he has his hands largely tied because of the Israel Lobby. Israel basically has more votes in Congress than President Trump does. It's almost impossible for him to take on the Israelis, and that would be necessary to get out of the mess we're in in Gaza. To solve the Iran problem he may decide to take on the Lobby and to take on Israel, but I would not bet a lot of money on it. I would certainly tell him that that's what he should do, but it's easy for me to say that because I'm sitting here in Chicago, not in the White House.

I’ve placed this next section out of sequence. It actually occurs near the beginning. I’ve included it because of Putin’s comments and DD’s take on it. Trump, according to Axios, was exulting initially over the attack on Russia’s strategic bombers. He’s going to regret that foolishness.

DD: Before we get to Trump's comments--because he posted a Truth Social where he talked about his comment with Putin--I want to set the stage a little bit. Apparently, somewhere around the same time--and it was released just before Trump's Truth Social--Putin went on a broadcast where he was talking to some of his national security experts. One of those kind of Zoom calls that he allows to be publicized, and obviously for a pretty good reason. But notice here, in my view, the anger--the demonstrable anger on his face. The only time I've seen it matched is when he made his initial statement to the Russian people in February of 2022, when he announced the start of this special military operation. See what you think.

Putin: "It was a deliberate strike, and it only confirms our suspicions that the illegitimate regime in Kiev--that came to power through a coup--is now being reborn as a terrorist organization. Its sponsors have become supporters of terrorism. Recently the Ukrainian government and their allies dreamt of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield [Kursk?]. Now they're withdrawing from the battle zone, fleeing. And now the Kiev regime is trying to resort to terrorist attacks--at the same time they're asking for a ceasefire! They're asking for top level meetings, but how can we organize such meetings? Something like this is happening--what is there to talk about? How can we negotiate with those who are resorting to terrorism and why should we reward them with a cessation of hostilities, allowing them to receive additional weapons to continue their mobilization and prepare for more terrorist attacks like those in the Bryansk regions?"