The three main goals of the Terrible Tariffs are: 1) get rid of the income tax and use tariffs as a regressive income tax instead that will hurt ordinary consumers and allow the very rich to pay much less tax, 2) reduce consumption among the middle class and poor, since they already consume more than they deserve, and 3) to lower the exchange rate value of the dollar (lower the value of imports into the US and lower the prices of US exports) AND, at the same time, maintain the powerful status of the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency. Normally 3) would be almost impossible, economically speaking, but Trump plans to use the political and military power entwined with the tariffs as weapons to FORCE countries around the world not to use other currencies as reserve currencies. The problem with Bancor is that the US would politicize/militarize it, too, and would twist other countries' arms. Bancor only works if there is no unipolar nation or imperialist power(s). Unless Trump lets the value of the US dollar float completely freely and allows BRICS et al. to function normally outside of or without the US dollar, he will have shot himself in the foot with a North Korean anti-aircraft gun. The root cause of our trade imbalance is the capture of the US economy by the financial sector. Unless Trump regulates and shrinks the power of the financial sector, he will fail. But he himself is a prime member of he financial sector (real estate). This is a surreal situation. If Trump really cared about reindustrializing the US, he would not deconstruct the Education Dept. How the heck can the US reindustrialize without many, many new highly skilled workers? This isn't 1925. Trump's economics advisors are from the financial sector and into fintech. They probably don't know S*** from Shinola when it comes to starting up new factories.
These are very good talking points, and hopefully we'll see them worked over by knowledgeable commentators. Here are my of the top of the head reactions, bearing in mind that I've repeatedly quoted people like PP who maintain this could be a risky venture. Starting at the end ...
Trump's econ advisers don't really need to know about Shinola re factory start ups, since they won't be doing it. New highly skilled workers? Possibly from Europe? Asian countries have solved that problem, so I think that part is doable.
I agree that for this to work as proponents think it will the USD will take a hit--certainly initially. OTOH, the US retains all its geographical advantages--which I've gone over several times in the past. It should remain a very attractive location for investment, especially with further NAmerican integration.
Definancializing the economy? I think that part happens pretty much automatically, as long as the tariff plan stays in place.
Tariffs as regressive income tax. You're presenting tariffs as a sort of VAnationalT on all goods and services. But tariffs wouldn't apply to services--that would be up to local governments. Plus it wouldn't apply to all goods--only imports. There would be a huge market for high quality domestic goods.
There are many other problems with the US economic/financial system that need to be addressed, and Trump can't solve everything--he has four years. But this could prove to be one helluva start. If it works.
‘…the Scaled Tariff is equivalent to a policy that automatically responds to the competitor’s move with the identical move…’ IOW the economic version of MAD. Excellent. In forcing self-reliance strategies on countries the way sanctions against Russia (or anywhere else) worked, the power of psychopaths and Ziopaths in Wall Street and London will be diluted, and we’ll be treated to the pleasant sounds of their howls and, hopefully, death-rattles.
NAFTA was over 30 years ago, when that "giant sucking sound" started in earnest. So everyone under 45 grew up in that environment. Trump may be surprised at how little most under 35s want to pursue actual wealth-creating work rather than just being a part of the sevice/online economy. All these new immigrants could benefit from it, ironically.
So Trump is working well with his second Socialist President of Mexico! Amazing. This will sail past most people, but Trump has worked consistently to make North America Great Again. Every other president for 50 years has either not cared or wanted to take advantage of them.
Yes, that's another thing I forgot to include. Trump is in favor of that integration, which is what he wants to do with Canada, as well. This perfectly illustrates how Libertarianism makes you stupid--if you weren't already. Rand Paul voted against the Canada part of the tariffs. "Free trade" ideology, which is simply a cult, prevents you from seeing the big picture of a complex world that doesn't run on auto pilot.
I was a long time "Free to Choose" devotee, but my views on economics and trade has evolved. We do not have free trade or markets. We've been lied to and mislead.
This is the fundamental stupidity of Libertarianism--the delusion that human societies are no more than the sum of contractual relations between autonomous individuals, and the crazy idea that such a society can survive in a healthy state. That anti-human ideology is what has got the West into its present crisis and is based on false philosophy.
Libertarianism has never resonated with me for the precise reason it has no real position on anything. It's the lazy thinkers ideology. "Yeah, just let ride, man and don't bother me"
Another reference to the Bessent interview by Tucker. Scott addresses (briefly) that this is exactly where the Trump Administration aims to get with China. Here is what Mark quotes in the article.
"To get to the objective of free and balanced trade (mutual free trade), the U.S. government must adopt a game-changing strategy that provides mercantilists with incentives to cooperate in return for American cooperation. .."
Mercantilism may be a dirty word but national economic self-interest is a reality. Trump's tariffs obviously play into that both domestically and internationally.
One probably very important related event that I forgot to mention--the presence in DC of the Russian special envoy talking up the possibility of economic cooperation between Russia and the US. Perhaps Trump believes his tariff scheme will induce the Russians to accept his ceasefire scheme. If so, I believe he's dreaming. But Trump's tariff scheme probably won't work too well unless BRICS can be drawn in.
" Written in 2014 by three economic professors, Jesse Richman, Howard Richman, and Ryamond Richman, "
Have not read it but would like to know if addressed - and imagine it did Not - US Unions/worker wages for larger corporations v. International labor cost.
Or Do the Richmans 'theorize' based on equal wage/equal worker costs internationally ?
- which I imagine they do. ( Hoping I am wrong )
I opine for this to work Trump would require an executive order
eg: Ford can create a Non - Union Factory
Currently I speculate the group benefitting the most shall be the Unions. In my experience a) they will not willingly let you reduce job #s via automation and b) they will
take advantage via strikes and other pressure to increase wages seeing corporations benefit from tarriffs ( above already Not world competitive wages )
The one word Trump has not muttered and probably shall not is Union.
Clearly labor is an important issue that will need to be addressed in some way. The modern "labor movement" is a product of the Progressive Era, just like the income tax. But there are also a lot of other factors involved, such as modern corporation law, which introduces perverse incentives into corporate governance. A good start would be to abolish government employee unions.
I asked GROK how wages and benefits at Ford's largest plant in US compare to China's largest car manufacturer:
Key Comparisons
Wage Gap: Ford Rouge Center workers earn 2–5 times more per hour than SAIC workers, with starting wages alone ($28/hour) exceeding SAIC’s top-tier pay. By 2028, this gap widens further as UAW wages climb above $42/hour.
Benefits: UAW workers enjoy far superior healthcare, retirement plans, and paid time off. SAIC benefits are more basic, relying heavily on China’s social safety net rather than employer-provided extras.
Union Influence: The UAW’s bargaining power drives Ford’s high compensation, while SAIC’s lack of independent unions limits worker leverage, aligning pay with state and market norms.
Cost of Living: Shanghai’s cost of living is lower than Detroit’s, but the wage disparity far exceeds this difference. A $15/hour wage in Shanghai buys more locally than in the U.S., yet it doesn’t approach UAW living standards.
Legacy Costs: Ford bears significant costs for retiree pensions and healthcare (absent at SAIC), inflating its labor expenses beyond direct worker compensation.
Conclusion
UAW-represented workers at the Ford Rouge Center benefit from wages and perks that dwarf those at SAIC,
reflecting the strength of U.S. union advocacy versus China’s controlled labor system. While SAIC workers earn above China’s manufacturing average, their compensation remains modest by global standards, with limited benefits and no equivalent to the UAW’s influence. Ford’s higher costs—projected at $8.8 billion extra from the 2023 contract—highlight the trade-off between worker prosperity and corporate competitiveness, a dynamic less pronounced at SAIC due to its state-backed structure and lower labor overhead.
Of Note: Vacation alone: Ford: Up to 5 weeks of vacation, 17 paid holidays, and 2 paid family days annually.
SAIC Chinese law mandates 5–15 days of paid annual leave (based on seniority), plus public holidays (around 11 days)
Overtime
Key Comparisons
Standard Hours: Both aim for a 40-hour week, but Ford’s UAW contract ensures stricter adherence, while SAIC workers may face de facto longer days due to unpaid tasks or lax enforcement.
Workday Structure: Ford workers benefit from paid breaks and clear shift boundaries, while SAIC’s workday includes a longer unpaid lunch and less predictable breaks, extending effective hours.
Overtime Pay: Ford’s overtime rates (up to $84/hour) dwarf SAIC’s (up to $36/hour on holidays), reflecting higher base wages and union power. A Ford worker’s overtime hour is worth 2–4 times a SAIC worker’s.
Overtime Control: UAW workers can opt into overtime with limits on mandatory hours, boosting earnings without burnout. SAIC workers face more pressure to work extra hours, with legal caps often ignored in practice.
Total Hours Worked: Ford workers may hit 50–60 hours weekly during busy periods, but this is voluntary and well-compensated. SAIC workers might work similar or longer hours (60+), but with less choice and lower rewards.
......
So that goes not only to benefit but production = SAIC workers are working a lore more days and a lot more hours.
I've given up trying to understand all the various permutations of what Trump's tariffs policy will do. However, I can't agree with Soukup about going slowly on dismantling the Deep State. So, he recommends the slowly, slowly catchee monkey approach "even though he admits that the Reagan approach has failed catastrophically". There's the answer right there to that!. The Deep State is 10 times more deadly than it was under Reagan and 10 times bigger. It's also angry and frightened. Neither Trump nor America has the time needed to whittle down the Deep State bit by bit. It's either all or nothing right now. God knows who will be in power in 4 (or less) years! It has to be hacked to pieces in quick order, showing no mercy and no respite.
21, you are spot on: Implicit in this “doing in the deep state monster”, is sufficient cooperation of the legislative branch and I don’t see that happening because that would necessitate them killing the goose that laid the golden egg. Not gonna happen; exhibit A is Elon Musk’s rhetorical question about how so many politicians making a measly 200k managed to become multi millionaires. He knows the answer and so do we. Probably read Hillary’s book on making money in cattle futures.
Hacking to pieces in quick order is the only sure fire way to guarantee success.
A two minute clip from the Bessent interview with Tucker
Bessent talks about the top 10% in the US holding 88% of stock, the next 40% owns 12% of the stock and the bottom 50% have debt.
Then, Bessent notes that in the summer of 2024 more Americans took European vacations than in history and more Americans used food banks than in history. Bessent visited a couple food banks last year and the food banks said they weren't seeing their usual clientele of those that lost their home, unemployed, etc. The people coming to the food bank were employed, but the $100 they spent at the grocery didn't cover all the food they needed for the week.
My sister and brother-in-law are an attorney and scientist/administrator with the EPA. My sister and neice have been to Paris twice in the past 14 months. My brother-in-law and nephew skiied in France last Spring (although they did so because it was no more expensive than going to Colorado).
yes. i came across that piece yesterday and as a (former) bond market dude I tend to agree. i appreciate also the mention of Reagan. Ronaldus Magnus my tail.
If I am right, then tariffs mean more things made in America and lower taxes, then I am going all in. https://torrancestephensphd.substack.com/p/to-tariff-or-not-to-tariff-that-is
But if these guys are right, then tariffs are not an end in themselves but simply a means toward fair and balanced trade.
The three main goals of the Terrible Tariffs are: 1) get rid of the income tax and use tariffs as a regressive income tax instead that will hurt ordinary consumers and allow the very rich to pay much less tax, 2) reduce consumption among the middle class and poor, since they already consume more than they deserve, and 3) to lower the exchange rate value of the dollar (lower the value of imports into the US and lower the prices of US exports) AND, at the same time, maintain the powerful status of the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency. Normally 3) would be almost impossible, economically speaking, but Trump plans to use the political and military power entwined with the tariffs as weapons to FORCE countries around the world not to use other currencies as reserve currencies. The problem with Bancor is that the US would politicize/militarize it, too, and would twist other countries' arms. Bancor only works if there is no unipolar nation or imperialist power(s). Unless Trump lets the value of the US dollar float completely freely and allows BRICS et al. to function normally outside of or without the US dollar, he will have shot himself in the foot with a North Korean anti-aircraft gun. The root cause of our trade imbalance is the capture of the US economy by the financial sector. Unless Trump regulates and shrinks the power of the financial sector, he will fail. But he himself is a prime member of he financial sector (real estate). This is a surreal situation. If Trump really cared about reindustrializing the US, he would not deconstruct the Education Dept. How the heck can the US reindustrialize without many, many new highly skilled workers? This isn't 1925. Trump's economics advisors are from the financial sector and into fintech. They probably don't know S*** from Shinola when it comes to starting up new factories.
These are very good talking points, and hopefully we'll see them worked over by knowledgeable commentators. Here are my of the top of the head reactions, bearing in mind that I've repeatedly quoted people like PP who maintain this could be a risky venture. Starting at the end ...
Trump's econ advisers don't really need to know about Shinola re factory start ups, since they won't be doing it. New highly skilled workers? Possibly from Europe? Asian countries have solved that problem, so I think that part is doable.
I agree that for this to work as proponents think it will the USD will take a hit--certainly initially. OTOH, the US retains all its geographical advantages--which I've gone over several times in the past. It should remain a very attractive location for investment, especially with further NAmerican integration.
Definancializing the economy? I think that part happens pretty much automatically, as long as the tariff plan stays in place.
Tariffs as regressive income tax. You're presenting tariffs as a sort of VAnationalT on all goods and services. But tariffs wouldn't apply to services--that would be up to local governments. Plus it wouldn't apply to all goods--only imports. There would be a huge market for high quality domestic goods.
There are many other problems with the US economic/financial system that need to be addressed, and Trump can't solve everything--he has four years. But this could prove to be one helluva start. If it works.
‘…the Scaled Tariff is equivalent to a policy that automatically responds to the competitor’s move with the identical move…’ IOW the economic version of MAD. Excellent. In forcing self-reliance strategies on countries the way sanctions against Russia (or anywhere else) worked, the power of psychopaths and Ziopaths in Wall Street and London will be diluted, and we’ll be treated to the pleasant sounds of their howls and, hopefully, death-rattles.
Feel like I made it that I got a hat tip! Lol
Edit: a tour de force of taking the initial article and adding in additional context from other sources! Always appreciate your commentary
All this is in the shadow of WW3.
I voted to STOP the WARS. Tariffs or no Tariffs.
A Large portion of our national debt, is for a defense that is outdated compared to Russia.
They did it on 10 percent of what we have spent, for the last 20+ years.
There is Something Rotten in DC, like ALL OF IT.
The Economy And the Military are a Runaway Train, and Stoking Multiple Wars.
Rome Collapsed, Fighting Foreign Wars on Credit.
NAFTA was over 30 years ago, when that "giant sucking sound" started in earnest. So everyone under 45 grew up in that environment. Trump may be surprised at how little most under 35s want to pursue actual wealth-creating work rather than just being a part of the sevice/online economy. All these new immigrants could benefit from it, ironically.
So Trump is working well with his second Socialist President of Mexico! Amazing. This will sail past most people, but Trump has worked consistently to make North America Great Again. Every other president for 50 years has either not cared or wanted to take advantage of them.
Yes, that's another thing I forgot to include. Trump is in favor of that integration, which is what he wants to do with Canada, as well. This perfectly illustrates how Libertarianism makes you stupid--if you weren't already. Rand Paul voted against the Canada part of the tariffs. "Free trade" ideology, which is simply a cult, prevents you from seeing the big picture of a complex world that doesn't run on auto pilot.
I was a long time "Free to Choose" devotee, but my views on economics and trade has evolved. We do not have free trade or markets. We've been lied to and mislead.
stoopid free zone
"voluntary transactions between individuals"
This is the fundamental stupidity of Libertarianism--the delusion that human societies are no more than the sum of contractual relations between autonomous individuals, and the crazy idea that such a society can survive in a healthy state. That anti-human ideology is what has got the West into its present crisis and is based on false philosophy.
Libertarianism has never resonated with me for the precise reason it has no real position on anything. It's the lazy thinkers ideology. "Yeah, just let ride, man and don't bother me"
Another reference to the Bessent interview by Tucker. Scott addresses (briefly) that this is exactly where the Trump Administration aims to get with China. Here is what Mark quotes in the article.
"To get to the objective of free and balanced trade (mutual free trade), the U.S. government must adopt a game-changing strategy that provides mercantilists with incentives to cooperate in return for American cooperation. .."
Mercantilism may be a dirty word but national economic self-interest is a reality. Trump's tariffs obviously play into that both domestically and internationally.
Yes. Game changing = Shock therapy
One probably very important related event that I forgot to mention--the presence in DC of the Russian special envoy talking up the possibility of economic cooperation between Russia and the US. Perhaps Trump believes his tariff scheme will induce the Russians to accept his ceasefire scheme. If so, I believe he's dreaming. But Trump's tariff scheme probably won't work too well unless BRICS can be drawn in.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/neocons-attempt-to-sabotage-us-russa-talks.html#more
" Written in 2014 by three economic professors, Jesse Richman, Howard Richman, and Ryamond Richman, "
Have not read it but would like to know if addressed - and imagine it did Not - US Unions/worker wages for larger corporations v. International labor cost.
Or Do the Richmans 'theorize' based on equal wage/equal worker costs internationally ?
- which I imagine they do. ( Hoping I am wrong )
I opine for this to work Trump would require an executive order
eg: Ford can create a Non - Union Factory
Currently I speculate the group benefitting the most shall be the Unions. In my experience a) they will not willingly let you reduce job #s via automation and b) they will
take advantage via strikes and other pressure to increase wages seeing corporations benefit from tarriffs ( above already Not world competitive wages )
The one word Trump has not muttered and probably shall not is Union.
Clearly labor is an important issue that will need to be addressed in some way. The modern "labor movement" is a product of the Progressive Era, just like the income tax. But there are also a lot of other factors involved, such as modern corporation law, which introduces perverse incentives into corporate governance. A good start would be to abolish government employee unions.
I asked GROK how wages and benefits at Ford's largest plant in US compare to China's largest car manufacturer:
Key Comparisons
Wage Gap: Ford Rouge Center workers earn 2–5 times more per hour than SAIC workers, with starting wages alone ($28/hour) exceeding SAIC’s top-tier pay. By 2028, this gap widens further as UAW wages climb above $42/hour.
Benefits: UAW workers enjoy far superior healthcare, retirement plans, and paid time off. SAIC benefits are more basic, relying heavily on China’s social safety net rather than employer-provided extras.
Union Influence: The UAW’s bargaining power drives Ford’s high compensation, while SAIC’s lack of independent unions limits worker leverage, aligning pay with state and market norms.
Cost of Living: Shanghai’s cost of living is lower than Detroit’s, but the wage disparity far exceeds this difference. A $15/hour wage in Shanghai buys more locally than in the U.S., yet it doesn’t approach UAW living standards.
Legacy Costs: Ford bears significant costs for retiree pensions and healthcare (absent at SAIC), inflating its labor expenses beyond direct worker compensation.
Conclusion
UAW-represented workers at the Ford Rouge Center benefit from wages and perks that dwarf those at SAIC,
reflecting the strength of U.S. union advocacy versus China’s controlled labor system. While SAIC workers earn above China’s manufacturing average, their compensation remains modest by global standards, with limited benefits and no equivalent to the UAW’s influence. Ford’s higher costs—projected at $8.8 billion extra from the 2023 contract—highlight the trade-off between worker prosperity and corporate competitiveness, a dynamic less pronounced at SAIC due to its state-backed structure and lower labor overhead.
Of Note: Vacation alone: Ford: Up to 5 weeks of vacation, 17 paid holidays, and 2 paid family days annually.
SAIC Chinese law mandates 5–15 days of paid annual leave (based on seniority), plus public holidays (around 11 days)
Overtime
Key Comparisons
Standard Hours: Both aim for a 40-hour week, but Ford’s UAW contract ensures stricter adherence, while SAIC workers may face de facto longer days due to unpaid tasks or lax enforcement.
Workday Structure: Ford workers benefit from paid breaks and clear shift boundaries, while SAIC’s workday includes a longer unpaid lunch and less predictable breaks, extending effective hours.
Overtime Pay: Ford’s overtime rates (up to $84/hour) dwarf SAIC’s (up to $36/hour on holidays), reflecting higher base wages and union power. A Ford worker’s overtime hour is worth 2–4 times a SAIC worker’s.
Overtime Control: UAW workers can opt into overtime with limits on mandatory hours, boosting earnings without burnout. SAIC workers face more pressure to work extra hours, with legal caps often ignored in practice.
Total Hours Worked: Ford workers may hit 50–60 hours weekly during busy periods, but this is voluntary and well-compensated. SAIC workers might work similar or longer hours (60+), but with less choice and lower rewards.
......
So that goes not only to benefit but production = SAIC workers are working a lore more days and a lot more hours.
I've given up trying to understand all the various permutations of what Trump's tariffs policy will do. However, I can't agree with Soukup about going slowly on dismantling the Deep State. So, he recommends the slowly, slowly catchee monkey approach "even though he admits that the Reagan approach has failed catastrophically". There's the answer right there to that!. The Deep State is 10 times more deadly than it was under Reagan and 10 times bigger. It's also angry and frightened. Neither Trump nor America has the time needed to whittle down the Deep State bit by bit. It's either all or nothing right now. God knows who will be in power in 4 (or less) years! It has to be hacked to pieces in quick order, showing no mercy and no respite.
21, you are spot on: Implicit in this “doing in the deep state monster”, is sufficient cooperation of the legislative branch and I don’t see that happening because that would necessitate them killing the goose that laid the golden egg. Not gonna happen; exhibit A is Elon Musk’s rhetorical question about how so many politicians making a measly 200k managed to become multi millionaires. He knows the answer and so do we. Probably read Hillary’s book on making money in cattle futures.
Hacking to pieces in quick order is the only sure fire way to guarantee success.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1908423499875569751
A two minute clip from the Bessent interview with Tucker
Bessent talks about the top 10% in the US holding 88% of stock, the next 40% owns 12% of the stock and the bottom 50% have debt.
Then, Bessent notes that in the summer of 2024 more Americans took European vacations than in history and more Americans used food banks than in history. Bessent visited a couple food banks last year and the food banks said they weren't seeing their usual clientele of those that lost their home, unemployed, etc. The people coming to the food bank were employed, but the $100 they spent at the grocery didn't cover all the food they needed for the week.
What I did last summer...
Top 10%...European vacation
Bottom 50%...visited a food bank
As in…a picture is worth a thousand words, and a bleak and unsparing picture it is.
My sister and brother-in-law are an attorney and scientist/administrator with the EPA. My sister and neice have been to Paris twice in the past 14 months. My brother-in-law and nephew skiied in France last Spring (although they did so because it was no more expensive than going to Colorado).
If they're in the EPA they might be lucky to go to Coney Island next year.
yes. i came across that piece yesterday and as a (former) bond market dude I tend to agree. i appreciate also the mention of Reagan. Ronaldus Magnus my tail.
As with all other commentaries, the globalist financial elite gets off scot free. Please see this:
https://montanarcc.substack.com/p/trumps-tariffs-alexander-hamiltons
Trump's Tariffs: Alexander Hamilton's catastrophic US financial system comes home to roost.