"The real goal of the tariffs is to drastically lower interest payments on USG debt." I don't think it is THE goal but I believe it is a goal. The rush out of stocks and into long-term treasuries the last couple of days proves that point. Yellen sold way too much short term debt at way too high rates on her way out; I'm sure Trump and Bessent would very much want to refocus on longer term debt at lower rates. The last couple of days has been a step in that direction.
"Baby boomers are sitting on generational wealth with multiple homes, while 90% of people under 40 are dirt poor."
How about a minor change in tax laws to allow 'boomers' to 'bequeath' their ill-hoarded wealth to their offspring without benefit of dying, with tax preferences if the funds are used entrepreneurially, eh?
My guess is that Trump will rely on economic and financial pressures--which will build up under his tariff plan--to force fiscal responsibility on Congress and the states. He's leading with the EOs, cuts, DOGE, but entitlement reform needs to be part of the mix and will require legislation.
" As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.)
Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined. "
" In December 2024, Moscow ordered the military to increase its strength to 1.5 million active service members and is recruiting approximately 30,000 troops per month. Russian forces on the frontlines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force"
If Moscow were helllbent on taking over the World, I’d be worried. But since all this spending and production is a defensive response to OUR offensive posturing, I say, good for the Russians.
So what’s your point Joe? You getting all excited because a country that we are trying to pick a major fight with is leaving us in the dust in producing the implements and munitions of war while we delude ourselves into believing that we can kick their ass anytime we want to?
Oh, wait, damn, never mind, just forget I said anything.
In the article: "Trump may cut 90K from the military, strictly to cut spending."
Why cut money from our military, when money sent to multiple foreign countries could be and should be cut instead?
The United States is the most generous country in terms of foreign aid, providing over $61 billion each year worldwide.
Israel receives over $3.3 billion annually from the United States in foreign aid.
99.7% of the aid goes to the Israeli military.
In 2021 the US largesse allowed Israel to purchase 50 F-35 jets/bombers at a cost of $100 million each.
If we cut off aid to Ukraine and Israel, the cost savings would be a sizable help to reducing our country's debt...AND would likely squash those two country's warring ways.
Oh wait, I think I hear some nobody judge from a little municipality just outside of Buttcrack, Wyoming saying that the POTUS can’t do that and he’s going to issue an injunction to make him give all the money back, plus interest. Man, I wish I was making a joke!
I recall late in 2019 the repo market, which I could never quite figure out, was acting hinky and bubbling under the surface. It seemed to me that it was an early tremor of the devastating earthquake about to take down the entire house of cards that the financial system had become. And then presto, a mysterious man made virus entered the stage and allowed for the unlimited flow of funds to prop up the system yet again. But fundamentally the system currently in place is fragile and broken. This tariff war gambit seems to be for the moment a preferable way to deal with the financial house of cards than the previous method. Let’s see how this plays out, because really, what are our alternatives? Interesting times to be alive indeed.
All I can say is that I hope Trump has some good protection around him. Not those SS goons who almost let him get killed. He's breaking a lot of rice bowls here.
Tariffs or no tariffs, the stock market was due for a correction. Even the liberal Trump hater, John P Hussman, PhD, has shown in his charts and graphs that by many measures the stock market valuation exceeds that of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008. Even with the recent fall, stocks are still up 24% in the last 2 years and nearly even from a year ago.
It’s the savers who have been screwed with almost no interest since 2000. The government and larger corporations were able to borrow at effectively 0% for many years, driving up asset prices like housing and stocks to nose-bleed territory.
The stock market can fall a lot further, as can real estate, and it needs to so that normal Americans can afford homes and don’t have to overpay for American corporations.
"The real goal of the tariffs is to drastically lower interest payments on USG debt." I don't think it is THE goal but I believe it is a goal. The rush out of stocks and into long-term treasuries the last couple of days proves that point. Yellen sold way too much short term debt at way too high rates on her way out; I'm sure Trump and Bessent would very much want to refocus on longer term debt at lower rates. The last couple of days has been a step in that direction.
It seems to me that Yellen did her best to help the neocon tribe and harm everyone else.
Thanks.
"Baby boomers are sitting on generational wealth with multiple homes, while 90% of people under 40 are dirt poor."
How about a minor change in tax laws to allow 'boomers' to 'bequeath' their ill-hoarded wealth to their offspring without benefit of dying, with tax preferences if the funds are used entrepreneurially, eh?
If he's trying to do something about the deficit, grateful if you could explain increasing the deficit to give tax cuts please.
Didn't he asked to raise the debt ceiling, remove it all together?
I'm puzzled.
Strictly at a guess ...
My guess is that Trump will rely on economic and financial pressures--which will build up under his tariff plan--to force fiscal responsibility on Congress and the states. He's leading with the EOs, cuts, DOGE, but entitlement reform needs to be part of the mix and will require legislation.
Saw it and read the sample of Richman's book on Amazon - too expensive to buy right now.
One has to wonder if this global tax is a backstop for a drop in USD demand volume. Increasing prices increases USD volume.
UNITED STATES SENATE
ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE
STATEMENT OF
GENERAL CHRISTOPHER G. CAVOLI, UNITED STATES ARMY
UNITED STATES EUROPEAN COMMAND
3 APRIL 2025
among tidbits
" As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.)
Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined. "
https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/general_cavoli_opening_statements.pdf
" In December 2024, Moscow ordered the military to increase its strength to 1.5 million active service members and is recruiting approximately 30,000 troops per month. Russian forces on the frontlines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force"
If Moscow were helllbent on taking over the World, I’d be worried. But since all this spending and production is a defensive response to OUR offensive posturing, I say, good for the Russians.
So what’s your point Joe? You getting all excited because a country that we are trying to pick a major fight with is leaving us in the dust in producing the implements and munitions of war while we delude ourselves into believing that we can kick their ass anytime we want to?
Oh, wait, damn, never mind, just forget I said anything.
lol. I was thinking the same response.
it was just a copy and paste of the article
not excited the caps were a copy and paste wasn't going to rewrite it
I recall reading this awhile back. I think Mark may have written an article too. https://reason.com/2025/01/10/janet-yellens-short-term-thinking-could-cost-the-u-s-big/
In the article: "Trump may cut 90K from the military, strictly to cut spending."
Why cut money from our military, when money sent to multiple foreign countries could be and should be cut instead?
The United States is the most generous country in terms of foreign aid, providing over $61 billion each year worldwide.
Israel receives over $3.3 billion annually from the United States in foreign aid.
99.7% of the aid goes to the Israeli military.
In 2021 the US largesse allowed Israel to purchase 50 F-35 jets/bombers at a cost of $100 million each.
If we cut off aid to Ukraine and Israel, the cost savings would be a sizable help to reducing our country's debt...AND would likely squash those two country's warring ways.
Who do you think benefits from this spending?
And cut off funding to higher education systems with huge endowments.
AC: I’ll second that motion!
Oh wait, I think I hear some nobody judge from a little municipality just outside of Buttcrack, Wyoming saying that the POTUS can’t do that and he’s going to issue an injunction to make him give all the money back, plus interest. Man, I wish I was making a joke!
I recall late in 2019 the repo market, which I could never quite figure out, was acting hinky and bubbling under the surface. It seemed to me that it was an early tremor of the devastating earthquake about to take down the entire house of cards that the financial system had become. And then presto, a mysterious man made virus entered the stage and allowed for the unlimited flow of funds to prop up the system yet again. But fundamentally the system currently in place is fragile and broken. This tariff war gambit seems to be for the moment a preferable way to deal with the financial house of cards than the previous method. Let’s see how this plays out, because really, what are our alternatives? Interesting times to be alive indeed.
Bingo
On tariffs I recommend this summary of the theory behind Trump's tariff approach.
https://treeofwoe.substack.com/p/balanced-trade
Mark wrote an awesome essay about The Tree of Woe's piece this morning.
All I can say is that I hope Trump has some good protection around him. Not those SS goons who almost let him get killed. He's breaking a lot of rice bowls here.
Tariffs or no tariffs, the stock market was due for a correction. Even the liberal Trump hater, John P Hussman, PhD, has shown in his charts and graphs that by many measures the stock market valuation exceeds that of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008. Even with the recent fall, stocks are still up 24% in the last 2 years and nearly even from a year ago.
It’s the savers who have been screwed with almost no interest since 2000. The government and larger corporations were able to borrow at effectively 0% for many years, driving up asset prices like housing and stocks to nose-bleed territory.
The stock market can fall a lot further, as can real estate, and it needs to so that normal Americans can afford homes and don’t have to overpay for American corporations.