Macgregor: Ukraine's War Over, Zhou's War Beginning

That’s what Doug Macgregor says in a 45 minute or so Youtube with Glenn Diesen. M. K. Bhadrakumar discusses Macgregor’s take on where the war on Russia stands in his new article:

‘Biden’s phase’ of Ukraine war is beginning

Now, Macgregor actually attributes this phrase about “Biden’s phase of the war” to “a friend,” but he does adopt it and argue strongly that that’s where things stand. I’ll quote MKB to give you the gist of the idea:

The ground war in Ukraine has run its course, a new phase is beginning. Even diehard supporters of Ukraine in the western media and think tanks are admitting that a military victory over Russia is impossible and a vacation [sic; = reconquest?] of the territory under Russian control is way beyond Kiev’s capability.

So that’s the end of Ukraine’s war. It’s petering out in the mass carnage of a disastrous “offensive”, reportedly planned by the US and NATO and forced on a reluctant General Zaluzhny. Zelensky, in recent interviews, sees the handwriting on the wall—the collective West’s support is waning, at least when it comes to creating and equipping yet another iteration of the Ukrainian army. The West simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to do that.

Thus, a new phase begins—and the recent missile attacks directed toward Crimea, using Western missiles (Ukraine has claimed they’re their own missiles) and managed by US Global Hawk assets. The new phase will be a more or less long range strike war, managed by the US even more directly than past phases. Russian foreign minister was been totally clear on who will be in charge of this new phase:

US pursuing war against Russia — Lavrov on supplies of longer-range missiles to Kiev

According to Russian Foreign Minister, the US controls the military actions in Ukraine

MOSCOW, September 17. /TASS/. The US controls the military actions in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a commentary … on the Rossiya-1 television channel, adding that Washington is in fact pursuing a war against Russia by supplying weapons.

"No matter what it says, it (the US - TASS) controls this war, it supplies weapons, munition, intelligence information, data from satellites, it is pursuing a war against us," the minister said on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) as he commented on statements by the US on readiness to supply long-range shells with depleted uranium to Ukraine. ...

Possible supplies of longer-range missiles to Kiev by Western countries will not change the essence of what is going on in Ukraine, Lavrov said. "I am unable to comment on their statements <…> but the fact that it will not change the essence of what is going on in Ukraine is obvious. While what is going on is that Ukraine has been prepared, has long been prepared for inflicting strategic defeat to Russia using its hands and its bodies," the minister said.

Following Macgregor, MKB argues—as we have discussed—that the idea is to use long range strike weapons to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire that amounts to a defeat, so that the US can pivot to its war on China:

The US calculus is that at some point, Russia will be compelled to negotiate and a frozen conflict will ensue where the NATO allies would retain the option to continue with Ukraine’s military build-up and the process leading to its membership of the Atlantic alliance, and allow the Biden Administration to focus on the Indo-Pacific.

This US calculus has been obvious for some time now, but doesn’t appear to have made much of an impression on the Russians. In addition to Lavrov’s statement that nothing will change, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu recently stated that Russia's only option is victory, and Putin himself basically mocked Tony Blinken’s awkward efforts to induce Russia to ask for negotiations.

What is clear is that Russia has absolutely no intention of acceding to the Neocon’s ploy of a “frozen conflict.” Macgregor argues that, if the Neocons continue with their crazy scheme of trying to coerce Russia to negotiate by escalating the long range strike war what may happen will be Russian escalation—which could take a number of forms. The first form of Russian escalation would be the obvious one of launching Macgregor’s much favored Big Offensive, to end Ukraine:

The high likelihood is that once the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” peters out in another few weeks as a massive failure, Russian forces may launch a large-scale offensive. Conceivably, Russian forces may even cross Dnieper river and take control of Odessa and the coastline leading to the Romanian border, from where NATO has been mounting attacks on Crimea. Make no mistake, for the Anglo-American axis, encircling Russia in the Black Sea has always remained a top priority.

A second form could be the targeting of at least some elements of the US ISR assets that are being used to direct Ukrainian missile attacks—shooting down another Global Hawk, for example. Another and more dramatic form could be the provision of offensive weaponry to Middle Eastern (Iran, etc.) or Latin American countries, to threaten the US. This would repeat what Russia has recently done with North Korea.

I offer two caveats. The success of the Russian Air Defense in shooting down most missiles launched from Ukraine, without taking out US ISR assets, suggests that Russia might well extend its war of attrition to Western longish range weapon systems. For example, the US military has admitted that it doesn’t actually have many spare ATACMS systems laying around. The UK’s Storm Shadows appear to have been used up and resupply has come from the French version—neither have made much if any difference. The Germans have some missiles, the Taurus, but presumably the results would be similar.

In addition, all of a sudden the US has become much more reticent—once again—about actually providing the ATACMS. Why isn’t clear. Is it because the military is loathe to lose missiles that it believes it needs? Have the Neocons come the realization that Russia can’t be coerced in this way? We don’t know.

However, one way or another I believe Macgregor is correct in maintaining that this war on Russia is entering a new, and potentially more dangerous, phase. It’s becoming more and more difficult for the Neocons to hide behind Zelensky. Russia is gradually smoking the US out into the open as the major aggressor. Lavrov made no bones about it, and Putin made it clear that anyone who wants to talk to Russia will have to come out in the open.

In any event, this is a good discussion:

Now, shifting gears …

Earlier this week it appears that the French military pulled out of Niger—Niger had cut off food, water, and electricity. The status of the big American drone base is unclear, but Niger has apparently also demanded that the US ambassador leave the country. In the meantime, three key states in the Sahel region have formed a security alliance to forestall outside interventions to restore their colonial status:

Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso establish collective defense alliance

Previous reports indicate that the leaders of these three West African nations held a secret meeting in Mali alongside Russia's Deputy Defense Minister.

Tony

@Cyberspec1

The leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed a charter establishing an alliance of Sahel states to create a collective defense architecture. **

As a result of recent visits of Russian generals to Africa, yesterday a new military bloc was formed there from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which committed themselves to come to the aid of their neighbor in the event of an attack by third countries. This is how a new geopolitical reality is being formed on a daily basis. in 2020, all three of these countries were part of the French neocolonial empire. Now, not without the help of Russia, they left its membership and formed an anti-French military bloc.

All this shows how rapidly the processes of world reorganization are proceeding in the era of the collapse of the previous world order and the formation of a new multipolar world.

Russia’s African strategy, in this regard, is one of Russia’s ways, at relatively low costs, to destroy the previous geopolitical structures of the West, which were built back in the 20th century and existed for several decades.

This process cannot be stopped; a new wave of decolonization will further, from an economic point of view, undermine the West's claims to world dominance.

5:14 AM · Sep 17, 2023

The success of the Niger coup is a real economic blow to the EU, at little cost to Russia. Whether Russia is opportunistically taking advantage or was an instigator doesn’t matter. The collective West is increasingly under siege.

There are conflicting reports regarding this next item:

dana

@dana916

BREAKING: Military coup in Congo at this moment. The country's president is in New York, the military is taking control of key facilities in the capital. Congo borders the Central African Republic, where there is a strong Russian presence. DDGeopolitics

11:45 AM · Sep 17, 2023

OTOH:

DD Geopolitics

@DD_Geopolitics

The Congo Minister of Communications and Media, Thierry Moungalla, stated via X that there is no military coup in Congo, referring to it as "fake news." There have been reports of a coup attempt as well as French media refuting any discord