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Robert Ritchie's avatar

"“amateurs talk about strategy and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics and sustainability in warfare.” US lacks the wherewithal to sustain a long, hot war;"

Here's some professional analysis from a naval officer that's actually experienced high-intensity carrier warfare, Commodore Steve Jermy of the RN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvXvmyfdLqo

Normally the analyses of generals / flag officers, as politicians by definition, are pretty worthless, I prefer O3-O6 offerings: but Jermy is one of a tiny group of exceptions. None of them last long on MSM! ;)

Mark Wauck's avatar

Yes, I listened to that yesterday and meant to recommend it and summarize, but I got sidetracked. I found his discussion of the Iranian (Russian Kilo class) subs very interesting. Just one of those could really ruin the day for a carrier. Also his belief that Iran would be more interested in targeting Israel than US bases makes strategic sense.

Robert Ritchie's avatar

I recall from naval exercises way back USN carrier groups had far more difficulty detecting allies' diesel-electric subs than nukes. But I have no idea if that observation remains current! ;)

Mark Wauck's avatar

I recall reading that in a naval exercise (I believe off San Diego) a Swedish sub went right under a carrier undetected, which means it was also undetected by its escorts. The Kilo class are supposed to be that good, too, and Jermy did state--or understate--that Kilos are "very difficult" to detect. And that he had personal experience trying to. Not impossible, but if one goes undetected, boom!

Mark Wauck's avatar

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

11h

 BREAKING: President Trump is considering 'targeted strikes' against Iranian leaders and security forces, with the hope that this would give protesters 'confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings'

Arab and European officials are reportedly skeptical of the plan, believing that airstrikes alone won't be enough to topple the Islamic Republic, even if it encourages renewed protests. – Reuters

Joanne C. Wasserman's avatar

But, I just read your wonderful post with the Iran analysis by S. Mahendrarajah---bigly will DJT lose, should he pull that 'targeted strikes' do-over. The man has morphed into Joe Robinette Biden, sickly so....Mahendrarajah sharply contrasts flabby-brain Trump with real planning to decisive execution. The two choices of goal for Tehran, I think, are 1) attack/retaliate with full force against the land of the State of Israel (while trying to avoid Palestinian Gaza and what remains Palestinian of the West Bank), and equally attack US military properties in the Gulf/Middle East region; OR 2) emphatically strike to kill switch upon multiple nations' oil drilling/storage/transport sites in the same Gulf/Middle East region. I hope Iran does it (either one). I hope Trump falls flat on his flabby-brain face. I hope the American citizens do show up at the mid-term polling places and produce "POTUS Lame Duck" that will become a "heritage" warning to anyone attempting to become a future tyrant. AND FOR AMERICA'S 250th Anniversary, "POTUS Lame Duck" should also be made into a "HERITAGE RECIPE" with duck, herbs, spices (tons of garlic), and carrots and potatoes.

Nevermind the Molochs's avatar

Howling at "tons of garlic".

It's very cleansing, so it's said.

Clyde Griffith's avatar

Unz Review:

Directed Energy Weapon (DEW( and other techno-weapons in the kidnapping of Maduro

https://www.unz.com/bhua/maduros-kidnapping-directed-energy-weapons-and-9-11-judy-wood-hypothesis/

In the Covid era, Ron Unz argued that Iran was specifically targeted with the biological means of delivering incapacitation - decapitation.

US, CIA, Mossad may use such weapons against Iran again.

Zionism delenda est.

Robert Ritchie's avatar

From Pedant's Corner: I think you mean delendUM est? ;)

(I believe Karthago, being a city, is treated as female case, iirc that's the way it works...)

Clyde Griffith's avatar

I thought -um was the genitive ending (but then, Sr. David called me aside to tell me I was not working hard enough on Latin assignments).

Anyway, Zionist Israel is the LGBTQet c capital of the world. It would be antisemitic to assign a gender.

sed, Gratias.

Robert Ritchie's avatar

Indeed my memory is none too clear... In any case, I think my gender assignment has been Trumped! :)

Mark Wauck's avatar

Not all cities are feminine in Latin--Mediolanum = Milan--but Karthago is = delenda est. -um/-ium is only a genitive ending in the 3rd declension plural (although -uum 4th gen. pl.). Otherwise -um neuter n/a sing. or m. a/s.

Joanne C. Wasserman's avatar

Agree. And thanks for causing me to go back to my Latin dictionary.

Mark Wauck's avatar

I assume that both China and Iran were targeted with Covid.

Joanne C. Wasserman's avatar

Does that mean Corona virus Covid was entirely the invention of US driven science, to serve as a bioweapon? If so, then, the fact that the whole world of nations has suffered enormous amounts death and lasting bodily harms, as well as diminished economic productivity, would mean the Wuhan laboratory leak was an accident, not intended to happen (at that particular moment) by the covid inventors/DOD/Intelligence planners

Nevermind the Molochs's avatar

I do wonder though at the impressively high rates of vaccination reported by the Z-entity, oh, you know, literally fifty episodes back in this nightmare.

Whether or not I believe those stats, and whether or not I wish those jabbed ones Shalom, I leave to the gnostic fog.

Joanne C. Wasserman's avatar

The high rates of issuence of Covid toxic serum into the State of Israel's population are true; the gov't. mandated all doses. Also, Albert Bourla, I think, operates some Pfizer laboratories out of that country; and he's a Zionist friend of the Trumps.

Clyde Griffith's avatar

Pray for Iran and the Iranian people.

Le Petit Mondinet's avatar

"(btw, Iran offered security guarantees—and a lot more—22½ years ago but Bush-Cheney rejected the offer: “we don’t negotiate with evil”)"

Chutzpah defined.

Mike richards's avatar

'We don't negotiate with evil' - CLASSIC projection. And the dumkopfs didn't recognize this confession in their accusation.

Julian Hudson's avatar

Pre-emptive strikes aren't illegal under international law if you have credible evidence on which you believe a pre-emptive strike is justified. The Canadians used a pre-emptive strike against the Americans once they had credible evidence that the Americans were going to launch an attack against them. This incident set the standard the use of pre-emptive strikes.

In the case of Iran and the U.S. the Iranians have a bounty of present and past evidence of U.S. duplicity that would legally justify them making a pre-emptive strike.

They don't have to wait for another sneaky, surprise attack.

The U.S. has more than sufficiently proven itself to be untrustworthy.

Nutmeg's avatar

Canadians preemptive strike against Americans...? Revolutionary War or War of 1812?

Mike richards's avatar

The double standard of the West in disregarding usrale's covert possession (with tacit threats) of their nuclear arsenal while browbeating Iran is another clownish manifestation of this 'rules-based order' - the guiding principle behind every schoolyard thug.

Joe's avatar

There is What Appears to be a Very Strong Warning Going Out

Iran is apparently repeating Over and Over - Some 6 times -

And I would guess this repeating is purposeful

علی شمخانی

@alishamkhani_ir

Translated from Persian

Political Advisor and Representative of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in the Defense Council 🇮🇷

A limited strike is an illusion. Any military actions #America, from any source and at any level, will be regarded as the start of war, and the response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented, directed against the aggressor, the heart of Tel Aviv, and all who support it.

The claim that the United States will carry out “limited strikes” is an illusion. Any military action from the United States will lead to Iran taking action against the aggressors, the heart of Tel Aviv, and those countries that support them. Iran’s response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented.

The limited strike is an illusion. Any military action by #America, from any source and at any level, will be considered the #beginning_of_war, and the response to it will be immediate, #comprehensive, and unprecedented, targeting the aggressor, the heart of #Tel_Aviv, and everyone who supports the aggressor.

https://x.com/alishamkhani_ir/status/2016591158286094784?s=20

.

Joe's avatar

Political Advisor and Representative of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in the Defense Council

Ali Shamkhani, is the top Iranian advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei

He appears to be making a point

Posted the same or similar message in :

CHINESE

RUSSIAN

HEBREW

ARABIC

ENGLISH

PERSIAN

.

ROBERT Incognito's avatar

If Iran strikes first, as it should, then Iran will be labeled as the aggressor and the U.S. will try to get its citizens to back an all out war (I am afraid with the current propaganda machine in the west and the stupidity of the population, that is what would happen). If Iran waits for a provocation or first strike they could risk being defeated. Not a good choice either way. The rulers of Iran are smart; smart enough not to trust Trump or Israel (correctly) so we sit here and watch what happens without any say.

Alex's avatar

The key point for me from the quoted train of thought is that Iran is labelled as the aggressor by the West in any case - if they attack or not.

So what would matter to them is perception management domestically and with Allies, especially China, which is notoriously averse to being perceived as supporting aggression.

That's where the false flag idea comes in. Two can play that game.

Le Petit Mondinet's avatar

"Russia's 'unprovoked' invasion..."

Todd E Smekens's avatar

I ran across a conversation with the Atlantic Council: "Jason argues that Trump should strike Iran to “provide the time, space, and resources to even the playing field for the Iranian people to reclaim their country.”

Uh, he does know that the revolutionary ground forces were pushed by the CIA/Mossad?

If I was Iran, I would hit Israel with the most powerful missile I had in a very strategic spot in Tel Aviv, and then tell Trump we've got 100 more of these aimed at Israel and your military bases. If you want to fight, come on, bring it. It would be really cool if Russia and China backed up Iran by saying we got your aircraft carrier covered. One shot into Iran and kiss you runway and the jets goodbye!

I know Bibi has all of Epstein's blackmail tapes, so maybe Trump should take out Bibi and tell Miriam that it had to be done. Let's regime change Israel, and not for another sociopathic Nazi either.

Peace through Strength! :)

Ray-SoCa's avatar

My guess it’s more Netanyahu political future on staying out of jail that is driving the next phase.

The assassination campaign via missiles and drones failed against Iran, and resulted in major economic damage to Israel. And Israel failed to get the U.S. into way with Iran.

The color revolution failed.

And if Trump gets into an actual war with Iran, he loses the midterms.

I don’t see Iran kowtowing to the U.S. and agreeing to nukes and missiles. Pakistan got nukes with threats of sanctions.

Francisco d’Anconia's avatar

The world is figuring out that there is no making peace or coexisting with Israel. Iran must act accordingly if it wants to avoid total subjugation. Israel and the US are bullies. They can deliver a punch but cannot sustain the fight. Iran must also project itself as an ambiguous nuclear power in the coming conflict. Israel will respect no other boundary. If Iran is attacked again they must raze Israel and any collaborating power to the ground immediately. They must learn the lesson of Hizbullah - do not wait to be decapitated before delivering the decapitating blow. Israel will kill every person that they possibly can regardless of whether you wait and see, so only the loser will wait and see. After all, violence is the only language they understand, no?