20 Comments

I got a kick out of Mark's "subsidies work!" reply below, as it illustrates the absurdities that result when subsidized hyper-financialization severs any link between investment and value creation. EVs are a classic example--incentivize Big Finance to throw money at desired public-policy result, consequences and questions like "will this sh!t actually work?" be damned.

Having spent the first (roughly) 15 years of my practice advising sponsors and developers of large infrastructure (mostly fossil-fueled power) projects, the precision of the start-to-finish analysis among the lenders, engineers, builders, lawyers, accountants and energy providers from generation to offtake was impeccable. Every projected penny and kWh was scrutinized into a predictable, self-sustaining, 25-year business model before any loans or investments were funded. So, the bankers and developers all got paid AND communities got reliable energy.

Flip to the hard push to subsidized/tax-incentivized renewables projects starting (in earnest, at least) in 2008 or so, and the entire model changed. Banks and developers were in it for the tax credits, so output and offtake became less critical, and projects got funded almost entirely without regard to analysis of results. I am all for renewals that work, but only to the extent that money invested tracks value created. That's just not happening in our hyper-financialized world.

Expand full comment

Don't forget that USPS is going to an all EV fleet. That should be a blast to watch during the future Christmas mailing seasons. What a great idea for this already struggling but essential government entity. Just think of all those Amazon deliveries that will be late or parked alongside an ice-covered highway.

Expand full comment

Either that or suddenly a lot more postal carriers get designated rural. Rural postal carriers supply their own vehicles. Likewise, most of the tractor trailor rigs shuttling mail from one hub to the next are private contractors to the USPS, at least in my region.

Expand full comment

Here, USPS is doing a test program, providing some rural carriers with vans. Mercedes vans. Our mail carrier isn't too happy with it as he doesn't get to claim mileage. They're not allowed to do anything to it should it stop working, have a flat tire, etc. but must call for assistance.

Expand full comment

A large part of the EV "dream" is to restrict the free movement of people. Maybe when they get slapped across the face with reality things will change but I doubt it.

Expand full comment

Do a search for The 15 Minute cities in the UK. That’s what they want restricted to 15 minutes of your home. I wouldn’t even be able to go grocery shopping. lol

Expand full comment

Me too. W/in 15 *driving* minutes of my property are pastures w/cattle, sheep & goats, a big forest, several churches, a post office & convenience store.

Expand full comment

The lithium batteries generate a lot of heat when they burn. Helps keep you warm on a cold Chicago night🤔

Expand full comment

Strange how no-one predicted this. The Swiss government has even floated banning EVs this winter because of electricity shortages.

Expand full comment
Dec 22, 2022·edited Dec 22, 2022

Blessed Christmas one and all!

Li-ion is almost useless below freezing temperatures... Li (and variations) have individual computers as well as temp sensors and will pre-heat themselves as temps lower (hmmm, guess where that energy is depleted from...) so they can operate at all-(in fairness the computers help balance loads across multiple batts, charging management and etc.). Searching online about Li batts, even the highly regarded Li-Fe ones will likely scare a cautious person from using Electric vehicles in cold climates/cold times. Fancy Golf Carts batts, of which replacement alone is equal in cost to a new, complete cart model with 'standard' Lead-Acid batt or gas!

There are good benefits of Li- rechargeable vehicles: most of us don't play golf when it gets cold so don't care. If you depend on your car, however, it's a different, dangerous story.

Marooned at 2 degrees in a vehicle that can not provide heat, let alone go anywhere? Dangerous.

My favorite (and then I'm done) is Big-trucks being electric. I get it, in town etc. cleaner, quieter and so forth. I've around 4 million miles driving 40-52 ton GVW trucks that, well, battery operated simply just wouldn't cut it.

Thanks for reading my drivel... it's fun to enter into such discourse.

I hope for the very best Christmas for you all - from Idaho! Where, yes, it's cold but I'm gas powered... coupled with 4 wheel drive which also is a necessity. But I can go 400 miles on a 'charge' of gas in the tank and will stay warm with a flat tire or other, typical road incident... just sayin'!

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment
Dec 22, 2022·edited Dec 22, 2022

Hey Nick, thanks for your response! I think we in the 'red' states are viewed as, I dunno, ignorant (being nice). I think I'm just being practical. We got our soft spots but typically, for example, violent crime rates are very low. Why? Well, my practical self say's it not only possible but likely the 2nd amendment would work against me in any crime I might consider. There's reasons I keep firearms around; it can be dangerous in the mountains I enjoy being in. It can be dangerous in big coastal cities especially, but carrying there is unlawful (or at best have laws extremely difficult to comply with). Half the danger is the lack of concern by wonton criminals that they'd be stopped. Anyways, not saying anything new or unknown of course.

Do have a great Christmas, sir!

(I'm actually in Weiser area for reference; you'd know but unlikely most other of Mark's readers would even understand what I said if I spoke the name...)

(WRH)

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

The EV push is no better represented than by the Ford electric pickup. Taxpayers provide $7500 to purchasers while Ford has raised the price on the Lightening, last I looked, around $25K, post law passing providing for subsidy. And, tow a 7,500# load and, in ideal conditions, cut range in 1/2 (or more).

I also enjoy E-bikes: the batts are very expensive and the recommendation is to not even store them below freezing... I don't ride much when it's cold but I've a 'fat tire' model that's fun in the snow. Fun but not battery assisted in any event.

Take care!

Expand full comment
author

Subsidies work!

Expand full comment

Oops, Mark-sorry. (I am not very good at these comment things yet). I accidently 'reported' your comment when I meant to agree...

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

I miss the lighter handling aspects you mention. We've much 'softer' trail riding around here and I'm not quite up to what the Mountain-bikers do on their preferred terrain. 20 years ago, probably yes! I ride the Irrigation Canal access roads a lot - that way my dog can run freely and cars aren't an issue. I love the Batt assist when I get into the hills - and when I get tired. (Getting older isn't quite what it's cracked up to be, I'll note).

I've considered a similar approach in my riding going to 26" x 3" tires. I am spoiled with weight-causing features (suspension, carrier/rack and etc.) so need some tire width. Maybe next bike...

Ps., the pic I've used in Substack is my Chocolate Lab (nick named "go" as that's his thing to do) and the 'cruiser I have. Older seems to equal comfort 1st for me... :^)

Expand full comment
Removed (Banned)Dec 22, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

So, basically, if my Tesla battery breaks down every 50 miles, I can get free travel via a Tesla pick up truck? Where do I sign? :)

Expand full comment
Removed (Banned)Dec 22, 2022·edited Dec 22, 2022
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Actually, extreme cold greatly increases electrical efficiency - in conductors such as metals, that is. That is the basis of "superconduction" technology used in most MRI machines. The coils for the electromagnets in MRI machines are suspended in liquid helium Helium liquifies at about 4° Kelvin, or -452° F. At those temperatures the resistance in the magnets' conductors is close to zero, so there are almost no losses.

So the issue with batteries and cold weather has nothing to do with electrical efficiency. Batteries generate electricity via a chemical reaction. Chemical reactions slow down as ambient temperature drops. So electric vehicles heat the batteries to prevent loss of generating capacity at lower ambient temperatures. According to one source I found, an electric cars typically "reserves about 15% - 20% of the total battery capacity to heat the battery". However I would guess that that figure might be higher for cars driven in extreme cold climates with winter temperatures well below zero.

Sorry for the tech talk, but my engineering background compels me to correct the record on this very important (negative) characteristic of EV technology so we all can discuss it intelligently with the woefully ignorant radical EV advocates that think we can just flip a switch and immediately convert everyone to 100% EVs with current technology.

Expand full comment
author

Tx

Expand full comment

Hi Al C. - Thanks for your insight!

Your point of conductivity losing resistance in cold metals (conductors) is spot on. My point of the Li-ion chemical issue failing in freezing temps can be, and is, overcome by heating to a better reaction temperature. I'm no engineer so will defer to those such as yourself. My research is consumer-need based. Batt tech has a ways to go is kinda where I settle. Li-ion batts, at around 40 degrees are barely reliable for 1/2 typical range for my E-bike. (Since I don't own a Tesla, it's is the only experience I can can personally speak of). There's no battery heater in it's system to promote efficient function. There is also a performance fall-off at higher temperatures (we get into the 100's) however I'm less inclined to be riding then, much like when it's below 50 degrees. Plus, it's likely some of that may be the motor.

My High School physics of the 70's, coupled with years of memory holes, makes me appreciative of those, such as you, willing to share knowledge and keep me in my lane. (In which the speed limit is reduced...)

When EV's get better for consumers (and come to the reality that the total known supply of specific metal-types required does not come close to need) I believe the market will better embrace, improve and better utilize the tech. The Gov't force-feeding EV's on us will be more Solyndra-like in result while making us to be seen as stupid looking to the int'l community as we don't utilize our own Gas and Oil.

Hope you and your loved ones have a wonderful Christmas Season!

From warming Idaho, it's almost 16 now! :^)

Expand full comment

Lead Acid batteries, that old fashioned tech, can have life extended in cool storage. As Nick mentions, Li variation batts can be ruined by cold. Lithium Charged molecules don't move at too low of temp: those batts must be heated to function (requires spendy, built in computers). E bike batts manufacturers, for example, suggest to not even leave the batt on the bike anytime freezing temps are possible. Concern is to not store Li stuff fully charged, don't charge them indoors (fire hazard, unfortunately, even if unusual) and expensive to replace.

One of the major issues for EV producers is cold: another is fire issues. (Remember the post-hurricane fires in EV's?)

Anyways, there isn't enough electricity possible to convert to all EV (if it can ever work) nor enough necessary specialty metals to provide batteries, motors and the like for replacing even a large portion of our mobile fleet needs. Forget the environment's actual net benefit of EV's doesn't work out. Ever. Oh well, our Gov't is dictating the path we shall go on: sadly the path is off a cliff...

Best wishes, sir! Hope Christmas is wonderful for you and you loved ones.

Expand full comment