It's Over, For Now

Assessments are trickling in. Perhaps the most significant news is that reports state that the US has told Israel that the US—having provided valuable defensive aid—will NOT participate in offensive action against Iran. IOW, if Israel does so they face the possibility of being on their own in future. My guess is that a degree of uncertainty was intentionally generated. The US is also said to be engaged in continuing dialogue with Iran via Oman.

Here is Larry Johnson’s bottom line (follow this link to his video)—it sounds reasonable to me:

today’s strike was a symbolic warning. Iran only used a minuscule portion of its capabilities. Iran’s UN Ambassador issued a statement that stated today’s action was in response to the attack two weeks ago in Damascus on Iran’s Embassy Annex. If Israel “takes its medicine” and does not respond then Iran plans no further action. However, If Israel decides to attack Iranian interests again, especially inside Iran, the IRGC is prepared to significantly increase the scale of the next attack.

Here is the bottomline — Iran can fire an enormous number of drones, rockets and missiles that will overwhelm Israel’s air defense system. Today was just a warning. We’ll find out if Israel paid attention.

In addition to the warning, the success of the attack—as far as it went—is probably a great enhancement to Iran’s standing throughout the region and the Muslim world.

Will Schryver made the early call that Iran was probably primarily targeting one or two air bases in Israel, and that appears to be correct. This morning he’s casting doubt on the Israeli/US narrative that “99%” of drones/missiles were shot down. Bear in mind that the drones were almost certainly diversionary in nature, to draw air defense resources. Here are some further observations from or via Schryver, brief in nature:

BREAKING: Axios reports Biden told Netanyahu that 'the U.S. will oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran'

It would seem the US has no interest in seeing this thing escalate any further. A logical move. The US has no defense against hypersonic Iranian missile strikes.

 Iran Launches Largest Drone / Missile Attack Ever

If the report from the New York Times is accurate, Iran launched a total of 331 drones and missiles against Israel — which easily makes this the single largest drone / missile attack EVER.

The Associated Press @AP

BREAKING: Israel says 99% of more than 300 Iranian drones, missiles were intercepted, calls it a 'significant strategic success' https://apnews.com/article/strait-of-hormuz-vessel-33fcffde2d867380e98c89403776a8ac?taid=661b5e91b8613b0001bc49c0&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

Here is the off-ramp narrative they're trying to spin - and it's even more audacious than the nonsense we've seen from Ukraine for over two years.

"If you can't win a real war, win an imaginary one."

Intelschizo @Schizointel

Updated Interception data according to IDF

170/170 or (100%) of OWA-UAV's intercepted.

113/120 or (94.1%) Ballistic Missiles (no specific number of interceptions given just that "some hit Nevatim Airbase resulting in minor damage" Currently, 7 missile impacts have been recorded in Israel.

30/30 or (100%) of Cruise Missiles intercepted.

25 of the 30 Cruise Missiles intercepted by  Air Force.

Here are two links to longer form tweets that attempt initial analysis.

Alex Christoforou

Iran side:

Iran is celebrating a successful retaliation. They responded to the attack on their Embassy in Syria.

They showcased their military capabilities. They showcased powerful hypersonic missiles. Iran shows it is a force in the region.

Iran saves face.

Israel side:

CNN: "No reports of injuries directly through Iranian strikes" and "Israel's military says 99% of weapons fired by Iran intercepted" and finally "The US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful."

Israel's Air Defense is strong. US Air Defense is strong (MIC sales $$$).

Israel saves face.

US/Biden WH:

Neocons want Iran war. Biden is a neocon, but a neocon trying to get re-elected. Any other time in his Presidency and Biden would be all in...BUT Jake Sullivan who runs Biden's foreign policy is a campaign guy at heart, and he knows war with Iran would sink Biden's re-election. They opted for a calibrated response/defense, with an off-ramp for all sides.

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Mikael Valtersson

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A potential problem for Israel in a prolonged conflict are the numbers of AD missiles they have. The Iron Dome is only effective as long as Israel has a lot of AD missiles. During the Gaza war, Israel has gotten a lot of deliveries of weaponry from the US, since Israel has a limited capability in a war of attrition.

But the question arises, how much advanced AD can the US send to Israel? Much of these resources might be needed in potential conflicts with China/PRC and North Korea/DPRK. But some AD resources will probably be sent from the US, but not near the numbers needed to replace the Israeli usage of AD missiles, even during last night.

The main loser on the escalating conflict is probably Ukraine. Ukraine seems to have used up most of its AD resources and are in dire need of replacements. With an increased need for AD missiles in many places around the World, Ukraine will probably be last in the queue to get replacements. Which will only increase the Russian superiority in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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The vast usage of AD resources is probably a big concern for the US Navy, which is the primary force projection arm of the US military on a global scale. US production can’t keep up with the type of usage we’re seeing in Ukraine, Yemen, Israel. The expense of Iran’s offensive launches was far less than the AD response. The US military will not be thanking Netanyahu for this.