It's All Connected: Russia, Iran, Yemen
Peace in Ukraine? Maybe, but …
It will come on Russian terms. Check this out:
Moscow Calls Switzerland's Ukraine Conference A 'Road To Nowhere'
The Kremlin has issued a comprehensive response to the planned Switzerland-hosted international Ukraine peace conference which the Swiss government formally announced Wednesday as set for June 15-16 at the lakeside Bürgenstock resort near Lucerne.
Yeah, I’d call that a pretty comprehensive response but, just in case somebody didn’t get the message, the Russian Permanent Representative to the UN made it crystal clear yesterday:
“Very soon the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional capitulation of the Kiev regime.
“I advise you all to prepare for this in advance."
The Permanent Rep also made it clear that Russia is winning and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, while the West prepares to dither in Switzerland, the Russians and Chinese made an important announcement—one that should have been entirely foreseeable when the Neocons launched their excellent adventure, a War on the World. Here’s how Alex Mercouris summarizes the Russian position:
Putin's Ultimatum: West Accepts No NATO, No Ukr Army, 4 Regions/Crimea Rus Or Rus Imposes Total Kiev Surrender
And if the Neocons think they can somehow play Russia and China off against each other:
Mackinder's Nightmare "China and Russia will not target any third party, but if hegemonic forces threaten ... world peace, China and Russia will stand together and fight to protect their own interests and safeguard world peace ..."
Xi meets Lavrov, reaffirms China's emphasis on ties with Russia
And there’s even worse news, if you’re an aspiring Western hegemon:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
 US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff
Here's why I think so:
Russia and China have now made their mutual defense alliance EXPLICIT.
But, as tensions with Iran rise to a boil, few seem aware that both Russia and China now regard Iran as a KEY geopolitical ally and a paramount geostrategic interest — and have therefore forged long-term economic and military agreements with Iran.
Russia and China will NOT stand idly by as the US and Israel make war against Iran.
That said, Iran can almost certainly defend itself quite successfully for at least many weeks against a US / Israel air campaign. In fact, in the face of even a few dozen aircraft losses, and severe damage to US bases in the region, I believe the US would seek an early exit from the conflict.
The simple fact is that US air power as a theater-wide undertaking could not be sustained in the context of a non-permissive battlefield against a peer adversary.
As for Israel — without direct and massive US assistance, the Israelis could not sustain a credible air campaign against Iran, and the Iranians would inflict substantial damage against both Israeli aircraft and their bases.
US/Israeli strike missile inventories would be exhausted LONG BEFORE the Iranians lost the capacity to shoot back.
And, make no mistake, if the Iranians ask for material assistance from Russia and/or China, they will not be denied.
The Russians and the Chinese are FAR PAST being intimidated by US threats. They will act without hesitation to protect their interests. They understand perfectly well that the US military is fatally overextended and acutely depleted.
In light of these realities, I remain highly dubious that the US will make open war against Iran.
In fact, if the Iranians do little more than execute a relatively proportional counterstrike against Israel in retaliation for the Iranian embassy attack, I don't believe the US/Israel will escalate the situation any further. I think their tough talk in recent days is nothing but an empty bluff.
6:42 PM · Apr 11, 2024·
In this regard, Alex Mercouris stated this morning that the Russians and Iranians have been in non-stop communication since the Israeli attack on Iran. As this and the Russians’ recent statements about Ukraine confirm, they really are long past being intimidated. And yet who in the MSM or Congress recognizes that the American Empire is walking along the edge of a precipice?
Now—Israel - Iran, Russia, China aside for a moment—to give some idea of the serious challenges to American imperial hegemony facing the Neocon regime in DC, let’s turn to Yemen.
Will Schryver has a series of smart tweets today which we can gather under the overall theme of how the West is losing its war on the rest of the world. Here’s a brief indicator—think how this resonates throughout the world, including in Africa, from which continent the French have largely been ejected:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
 Apparently the French have had enough of dodging Yemeni attacks, and are therefore taking their fancy frigate back to the safety of its home port.
The captain noted they are not accustomed to "this level of weapons and violence."
The Yemenis "are perfecting their technique. The more they fire, the more accurate they become," he added.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/yaf-launch-drones--ballistic-missiles-in-striking-manner--fr…
12:01 AM · Apr 12, 2024
Coalition of the willing, anyone? Now we understand why the US envoy to get Yemen to play nice with us has been sounding so defeatist. In fact, just as observers are now recognizing that Israel’s desperation is owing to its defeat in Gaza, it’s now also becoming clear—as our NATO vassals skedaddle for the exit from the waters surround Yemen—that the US has also suffered a stunning defeat. Here’s how Will Schryver puts it, quoting Arnaud Bertrand:
A truly shocking humiliation. A defeat that cannot be spun into a narrative victory. The whole world knows the score.
Quote
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
There's rarely been a more extraordinary military failure as "Operation Prosperity Guardian", it's almost unbelievable.
The Cradle covers this emerging story in detail:
The failure of Prosperity Guardian is more significant than the failure in Afghanistan and the ongoing failure in Ukraine.
The US dangles Yemen bait, but Ansarallah doesn’t bite
The US has secretly offered a stunning array of concessions to Ansarallah to halt its naval operations in support of Gaza – to no avail.
Excerpts:
In a special briefing on 3 April – nearly six months after Yemen launched its far-reaching naval operations to debilitate Israel’s ability to conduct war on Gaza – US Special Envoy for Yemen Timothy Lenderking touted the importance of seeking diplomatic solutions in Yemen instead of the military ones his government has been loudly advocating for months.
…
Lenderking’s position may, in fact, reflect an astounding set of private US promises made via intermediaries to Ansarallah behind closed doors – pledges that essentially tick every box on the resistance movement’s wish list.
‘Stop your Gaza support, and we will give you everything’
Informed Yemeni sources reveal to The Cradle that the US offered Sanaa – in exchange for its neutrality in the ongoing Gaza war – “an acknowledgment of its legitimacy.”
What’s “everything”? The US has apparently pledged to recognize the Houthis as the legit government of Yemen, to repair all the damage from our bombing campaign, remove all forces from Yemeni areas, take Ansarallah off the terrorist list—all hinging on the Houthis selling out the Palestinians. They won’t bite.
Now here’s the big picture:
In light of the current situation, where the US has acknowledged the futility of its military strategy and is clamoring to devise a diplomatic solution, Sanaa has clearly demonstrated its relevance to any and all West Asian geopolitical calculations.
Its stunning achievements of the past six months include Sanaa’s ability to disrupt the Israeli economy by cutting off or lengthening trade routes for Israel’s essential imports. ...
Ansarallah has also thwarted retaliatory measures by the west’s most celebrated naval forces, made a mockery of their ramshackle “coalition,” and created complex challenges for US hegemonic ambitions in the Persian Gulf, both presently and in the long term.
Moreover, Yemen has showcased remarkable political and military maneuverability, demonstrating that a single resolved Arab state can provide the Palestinian resistance with a potent negotiating tool.
Importantly, through its military operations in the region’s waterways, Sanaa has solidified its position within the Axis of Resistance, transforming into one of the most effective forces in the Axis’ Unity of Fronts strategy. All, while drawing British and American naval assets into vulnerable – and unwinnable – positions and successfully hindering Israel’s shipping connections with the world.
The simple fact is that the entire Anglosphere Empire is predicated on control of the seas. Trying to set up a blockade of the Black, Baltic, and Arctic seas to keep Russia out of the Med and the North Atlantic won’t do much for the Empire if they’re shut out of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and forced to detour around Africa. The whole scheme of a war to subjugate the entire world is, predicatably, finding its wheels coming off. But the unlikely Houthis are playing a big role in that, one that goes far beyond the tragic events in Palestine.
David Sacks @DavidSacks
"Alliance entrapment theory is a critical concept in international relations. Biden doesn’t seem to know how to manage this risk at all."
I.e., when the vassal "ally" entraps the defender into a war.
Mearsheimer:
The Middle East has far more crucial economic and geopolitical implications than Ukraine. So of course US becomes less interested. The entire world doesn’t really care about Ukraine anymore outside of the West. All about the Red Sea and Gaza rn.