Israel: Political Fallout In US; Movement In Negotiations?

I picked this up from TGP. We’ve consistently seen from polling that the political fallout of the Palestine crisis has been overwhelmingly felt in the Dem party. What I mean is, while there has been significant movement in the polls on the Republican side away from unquestioning support for Israel, that has not yet translated into movement in approval of disapproval for any particular politician. At least not as far as we can tell. That is not true on the Dem side. Gallup is reporting that Dem approval of Zhou—I know that’s hard to conceptualize, but …—has taken a serious hit, due to his blank check support for Israel against Palestinians:

Excerpt from Gallup analysis:

Immediately after the attack, Biden pledged “rock solid and unwavering” support for Israel from the U.S., and he subsequently visited the country on Oct. 18 to reiterate that message. But Biden has faced criticism from some members of his party for aligning too closely with Israel and not doing enough for the Palestinians. Some prominent Democratic lawmakers and protesters around the U.S. have called for Biden to do more to help the millions of Palestinians who are in need of humanitarian aid as Israel attempts to eradicate Hamas.

Early this year, Gallup found that for the first time in the U.S., Democrats’ sympathies for the Palestinians outpaced those for the Israelis. Although the survey is not designed to allow for statistically reliable estimates for any subset of the three-week polling period, the daily results strongly suggest that Democrats’ approval of Biden fell sharply in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas and Biden’s promise of full support for Israel on the same day. Biden’s current 75% approval rating among Democrats is well below the 86% average from his own party throughout his presidency.

… Biden’s immediate and decisive show of support for Israel following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas appears to have turned off some in his own party, resulting in Democrats’ worst assessment of the president since he took office. Biden’s overall approval rating likewise matches his personal low. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict comes at a time when Americans remain pessimistic about the economy, the Biden administration is struggling to deal with increasing numbers of migrants attempting to enter the country, and debate continues about how much aid to provide to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

How this could play out in 2024 is difficult to gauge. Recently we quoted the Jerusalem Post to the effect that fully 50% of Dem funding comes from American Jews, so it’s difficult to see how the Dems could throw Israel under the bus without committing Hara-Kiri. Would those dissatisfied Dems, then, switch and vote for GOPer candidates? That’s also hard to imagine, given the heavy influence of Neocon thinking among Establishment GOPers. What would be the point? Could this dissatisfaction lead to lower turnout among Dems? That, too, is hard to predict, given that there are always local candidates to vote for. OTOH, dissatisfaction with the top of the ticket notoriously affects turnout. Much may depend on how long this crisis lasts and what the effects of it will be.

In that regard there may be some sign of movement. Israel always maintains that it doesn’t negotiate with “terrorists”, although they actually do. An Israeli public TV station (KAN) is reporting that Israel may be open to at least one of Hamas’ key demands—the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages/prisoners. But that is not the totality of Hamas’ demands. Nevertheless, it seems—for the first time—that there may be something going on behind the scenes:

dana @dana916

Kan Hebrew Channel: Israel informed the mediators that it is ready to consider a large-scale prisoner deal with the Gaza Strip, leading to the release of a large number of Israelis, this is what a political official familiar with the ongoing talks with Qatar, Egypt and other mediators told the channel. According to reports in various media outlets, Hamas is demanding the transfer of fuel to Gaza, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and a ceasefire - and the political official replied: “Things are approaching the moment of maturity, and we will soon know where they are headed.” Lord of War

3:08 PM · Oct 26, 2023

Again, we shall see. It may be a start. At the least it suggests that World War 3 may be on hold.