Is The War On Russia At A Real Inflection Point?

Events in the war on Russia have been progressing gradually—at least from the perspective of those who follow those events at a distance. We’re not seeing dramatic changes in the dimensions of controlled territory, which has normally been the measure for progress in warfare. On the other hand, since the collapse of the Ukrainian offensive the Russian war effort has been building momentum. Gradually. But measured in terms of attrition, the primary metric for Russia up to this point, progress has been more dramatic--a sad way of referring to the deaths of so many tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

More noticeable, perhaps, has been the rise in a note of rhetorical hysteria in the West, as measured by warlike threats and provocations against Russia. This strategy of bullying is typical of Anglo-Zionists, which Putin is totally familiar with by this point. Reflecting the gradual transition of Russia to a war footing, Putin and Lavrov have spoken in resolute and dismissive terms in response. Instead, Russia has extended and strengthened its relations with the rest of the world and prepared for a long war against NATO. The NATO countries, in notable contrast, have done essentially nothing to prepare for the very eventuality that they claim they are headed toward. Their preparations have been confined to the type of magical rhetorical incantations so typical of the Neo-gnostic West—as if words will do anything beyond hardening Russian resolve.

Before going further, I’ll paste in a few posts from Rybar, which chronicle the latest futile US organized attempts to strike at Russia. What purpose these futile strikes could possibly serve is anyone’s guess—again, these are are the equivalent of magical incantations. They cannot possible deter Russia, only harden Russian resolve:

Rybar Force @rybar_force

Massive AFU strike on Crimea

During the night, the AFU carried out a new massive attack on the southern Russian territories, including the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions, Crimea, and the Krasnodar Region, after a short break.

The raid was carried out in several successive waves. The drones were launched from more than six directions: from the side of Odesa, Illichivsk, Mykolaiv, and Kryvyi Rih.

6:26 AM · Jun 21, 2024

• Air defense units in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions began operating around 10-11 PM. Pantsir-S1 air defense systems shot down more than 15 UAVs.

• By midnight, the crews of the 31st Division, naval aviation aircraft, and infantry units in Crimea were engaged, destroying most of the UAVs in different parts of the peninsula.

• Several dozen more drones, having crossed the Sea of Azov, were shot down over Yeysk, Kozet, and Enem in Krasnodar Krai, again targeting Russian military fuel depots and airfields.

• In total, 114 drones were destroyed overnight, with one resident in Krasnodar Krai killed by falling UAV debris.

However, it is not the time to relax. Missile strikes usually follow such raids, as the goal of the massive UAV launch is to force air defense units to expend their ammunition.

Moreover, in parallel with the drone attacks, USVs are being launched towards the Crimean coast. The plan is simple - to expose Russian air defense systems to strikes by Russian aircraft tasked with countering the unmanned surface vessels.

Furthermore, since early morning, a US RQ-4B drone has arrived in the Black Sea area, not only to assess the night attack but also to identify new potential targets for attack.

What this map graphically demonstrates is that Russia, in the interests of its own national security, simply cannot allow any region from which US missiles were launched remain under the control of any country except Russia. That means that Ukraine will be left with no access to the Black Sea except through a Russian Odessa, and that significant portions of southern Ukraine west of the Dnieper River will also return to Russia. In line with that dynamic, there appear to be signs that Russian forces may be preparing to cross the Dnieper in the next few months.

The real question behind this is, What timeline are we talking about? Reports suggest that Russian advances, in terms of territory, while gradual have been accomplished with increasing ease, constrained largely by the desire to minimize casualties. The rise in Ukrainian casualties, however, may lead to the possibility of the collapse of Ukrainian lines—which is the goal of the Russian gradualist tactics, relying on standoff strikes to do the heavy preparatory work. If one or more collapse in the Ukrainian lines occurs on a large enough scale, the Russians will exploit the opening and a much larger collapse could occur in short order. Right now, the conventional wisdom suggests this process could continue into 2025.

On the other hand, some—prominently Doug Macgregor—argue that Russia probably wants to wind this war up by September, 2024. The strength of this view is that Russia has geostrategic interests far beyond Ukraine. With China and Iran under increasing pressure, Russia will need to free up some of its resources to support these partners—the Russian pacts with North Korea and Vietnam show that Russia is committed in the Far East, even while waging war in the west. The Middle East could explode at virtually any time, and there, too, Russia is committed. Of course, the start of a Middle Eastern war would certainly afford Russia a free hand toward Ukraine, but it would be preferable to have that free hand sooner rather than later. Macgregor points out, as he has done regularly throughout the course of the war, that Russia has built up enormous reserve forces to the north of Kiev, including in Belarus. Macgregor expects to see those forces used in a big arrow offensive to end the conflict by September.