Is Poland In Meltdown?

I’ve watched, incredulously, the recent antics of the current Polish regime. Its monomaniacal hatred for Russia—which has seemingly become its raison d'être—is leading toward some form of national suicide unless the Polish people can rally around their national culture to find a new purpose. The chance to do so comes, I believe, in November with national elections, but lots can happen between now and then. The importance of Poland in America’s war on Russia can hardly be overemphasized—without Poland’s active participation this war would simply peter out. That is a fact that Russia is very much aware of.

The sheer irrationality of the current regime is especially apparent in the announcements of weapons “purchases” that Poland claims to be making from the US. The explicitly stated goal is to make Poland the major military power in Europe. I use quotemarks, because in any rational world this all seems to be a fantasy project, as I briefly mentioned earlier. It simply can’t happen in the real world. I’m going to paste in Big Serge’s thread on this. I’m quite sure most European nations can see this Polish delusion for what it is. The question is, can the Polish public as a whole wake up and save their nation?

Before we start with Big Serge, I want to make a brief historical point. The idea of Poland as being historically little more than a battleground between Russia and Germany is a misunderstanding—”a highway for far more powerful countries to drive over en-route to attack each other.,” as Big Serge puts it. During the period of Poland’s decline and ultimate partition (1795) the dysfunctional nature of Polish government was probably the dominant factor. The real point is that political and economic realities have changed drastically since 1795. Back then, the Kingdom of Prussian could, with not too much exaggeration, have been described as a military masquerading as a nation. It was still the better part of a century before Germany would be the united powerhouse that we’re all familiar with. Poland today isn’t exactly “fundamentally a small and poor country,” as Serge describes it, but it is in no position to be a major player in global power politics. To attempt to attain that position by dint of military expenditures it can’t afford is a rare form of insanity.

Big Serge

@witte_sergei

Posting a tragically unfunny meme [showing “Poland”] threatening to "F**k Russia Up" due to the prospect of placing large hardware orders that can't be paid for, fulfilled, or crewed is perfectly on brand for [the current Polish regime]. It's the "find out" phase that they always hate.

12:08 PM · Jun 30, 2023

This is an extremely bad joke, but let's talk about why. Poland is very excited about these enormous orders that they are putting together, but they are completely out of proportion to both Poland's capabilities and the production capacity of the west.

Poland’s new military orders:

1350 Abrams and K2 Panther tanks

700 howitzers

1000 infantry fighting vehicles

96 Appache helicopters

100+ jet fighters

700 Himars & Chunmoo rocket launchers

8 patriot batteries

submarines, frigates, etc

< $100 bn

I don’t follow Polish affairs nearly closely enough to judge how much support this crazy project has. We’ll find out by the end of the year.

This is the typical Polish malaise. After centuries of being repeatedly partitioned and generally used as a highway for far more powerful countries to drive over en-route to attack each other, Poland cannot get it in its head that it is not a powerful country and never will be.

This is fair enough—Poland will never regain its past grandeur. Careful and realistic management can restore the nation to a position commensurate with its economic and cultural resources. To aspire for more …

Bottom line, Poland wants to place America sized hardware orders despite being fundamentally a small and poor country. The Polish population and budget can't support this, and odds are they will only take delivery of a fraction of these orders.

Small and poor are relative concepts. Poland isn’t necessarily either, although I won’t speculate on its economic potential. What is certain is what Serge asserts: Poland cannot possibly support the sort of military establishment that its current regime is fantasizing about.

We can come at this from a few different angles, but Poland's population is a good starting point. If Poland is serious about maintaining a ~1,500 tank army, the manpower requirements are going to be on the order of 5-600,000 men.

Poland's population is about 38 million, but what matters for this purpose is the fighting age male population, which is about 5 million. So, pencil in Poland trying to keep 10% of its prime manpower pool under arms.

That's an absurd level of militarization for a modern country in peacetime, but the budget numbers are even more hilarious. The price tag for these orders is enormous, but let's be generous and say the whole thing is $100 billion.

Poland's GDP is about $680 billion, so we're talking about spending 14% of GDP on hardware. That's not even the topline defense number - just hardware procurement. Poland's current total defense spending is around 3% of GDP, which is actually quite high for Europe.

Let's say Poland dedicated 10% of the state budget purely to military procurement. This would string out the shopping spree until almost 2050 - assuming no cost overrun (which will almost certainly happen).

The Financial Times has taken note of the unreality of these plans:

‘Who will pay the bill?’: Poland’s defence spending spree raises questions over funding

Warsaw’s military expenditure set to reach 4% of GDP this year as autumn elections focus on resisting Russian aggression

Then there are the costs and constraints of stocking munitions. You're talking about a billion dollars to buy enough GMLRS rockets to load all the new HIMARS launchers with *one* volley each.

The USA spends about $1.2 billion each year procuring GMLRS rockets - and Poland wants to buy twice as many launchers as the United States has in its inventories! Can they really spend 8.5% of their current defense budget just on MLRS munitions?

Can Poland afford to base its entire existence on hatred for Russia? I say, No. A reckoning, one way or another, is coming for Polish society.