Iran Development

Trump covered himself and America with shame today, meeting with a war criminal and endorsing ongoing war crimes—genocide and ethnic cleansing. In the meantime, there were developments on the Iran front. First some truly shameful words from Trump and his war criminal buddy:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

Trump: "Other countries are ready to accept Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to spare them the killing and misery they are facing. I don't understand why Israel previously abandoned the Gaza Strip. The Gaza Strip is like a death trap, an extremely dangerous place, and will take years to rebuild."

Netanyahu: "Gaza is a closed, besieged place, and we are not the ones besieging it. All we seek is to enable the residents of Gaza to have the option of leaving for other countries.

Israel never abandoned Gaza. Gaza was never Israel’s to abandon. Trump knows that.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

BREAKING: Trump announces that the U.S. is in direct talks with Iran regarding their nuclear program, expressing a preference for a diplomatic solution.

Netanyahu also commented on Iran, emphasizing that they must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons and proposing a diplomatic solution "similar to what was done in Libya."

Absolutely psychopathic.

There’s actually more on the Iran story. The US is not yet in direct talks with Iran, but Trump claimed that such talks are in the works for Saturday.

U.S. Will Hold Direct Talks With Iran, Trump Says

…

During a visit Monday by Israel’s President Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump told reporters that the U.S. and Iran would begin direct negotiations.

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“I think everyone agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious. And the obvious is not something that I want to be involved with,” said Trump on Monday. “It’s getting to be very dangerous territory, and hopefully those talks will be successful. And I think it would be in Iran’s best interest if they are successful.”

Trump also repeated his previous threats.

“The obvious” is Trumpian code language for, we’ll bomb the shit out of you. What’s obvious is that Trump is trying to sell this development as a win for his threats—Iran has been forced to bend to his will. In fact the reality may be quite different.

As recently as yesterday Iran appeared to clearly restate its long held position:

Earlier Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said [Iran] was waiting for a US response to what he called a “responsible, generous, and wise offer.” He added that the Gulf-Arab Sultanate of Oman, which has facilitated dialogue between Tehran and Washington in the past, is a “main candidate” to mediate talks with the US if they take place.

“The offer for direct negotiations isn’t acceptable to us for reasons repeatedly stated before, but we’re ready for indirect negotiations through Oman,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. “The ball is in the US court.”

However, a close reading of this Iranian statement suggests that Iran made some new offer, while repeating that it would only accept “indirect” talks as long as the US continued threatening Iran. What was the new element? Probably this:

SCOOP: Three Iranian officials tell me that Iran and U.S. [] are planning to meet in Oman on Saturday for indirect talks. Iran had told Washington it is open & willing to hold direct talk[s] if the first round goes well, a clear shift in position.

— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) April 7, 2025

Here’s my guess. Last month Trump asked Putin to intercede with Iran to get direct talks going. Iran at that time declined, for the reasons given. However, according to Alastair Crooke, this morning (or yesterday, allowing for time zone differences?) officials of Russia, China, and Iran were scheduled to meet in Moscow. My guess is that Russia and China suggested this new element to Iran as part of a coordinated strategy. Given that Russia and China have consistently backed Iran’s position, Iran agreed. So, this wasn’t actually a victory for Trump’s diplomacy of threats, but instead for a coordinated strategy involving Iran and its strongest partners.

Further, several commentators today—most recently Danny Davis—are reporting that the US has given up some of its demands. Specifically, it is reported that the US demand that Iran surrender its offensive missiles has been dropped. It’s also possible—in fact, Trump’s actual words strongly suggest this—that any talks will be limited to the nuclear weapons program that Iran doesn’t have. That has long been a bottom line Iranian demand. Previously Trump had demanded an end to Iran’s entire nuclear program, so this looks like a US concession to get talks.

With those factors in mind, a further guess is that Trump will seek some sort of agreement that he can call a victory—perhaps Iran will repeat what it has stated multiple times in the past, that it will not develop nuclear weapons, perhaps an Iranian undertaking to restrict enrichment of uranium.

The thing to keep an eye on is Russia and China. They are not going to allow Trump a free hand with Iran. And they do have ways to make the price of war painfully high.