IOF In Revolt?

The last few days have seen a remarkable series of events in Palestine and the surrounding regions. To understand the significance of these events we need to bear in mind that Netanyahu is not actually the Israeli equivalent of the POTUS. Meaning: the prime minister of Israel is not the CinC, is not the commander in chief. He is, as the title suggests, the first minister, the first among many ministers. Although he is the first minister, government decisions in crucial matters—such as war and peace—must be made at the cabinet level. So …

The first sign of serious disagreement of the Israeli military with the Netanyahu led coalition’s war policies was the resignation last week of key members from the “war cabinet”, the group of ministers designated to direct the genocide against Palestinians. While the reasonable assumption is that the key ministers who resigned—those with military experience—had originally agreed with Netanyahu’s goals, they had come to realize that those goals were unrealizable. To put it most simply, they realized that Israel was not in a position—for multiple reasons, military, economic, diplomatic—to defeat Hamas, and yet Netanyahu’s coalition was pushing, in the midst of this disaster, to widen the war by attacking an exponentially more formidable foe in Hezbollah. Disturbingly, this move places Netanyahu’s even more directly under the influence of the worst of the Israeli psycho fringe—people like Ben Gvir and Smotrich who are fanatics without a clue about military matters.

Over the last few weeks several military officials have spoken out. One commander in the north of Israel flatly stated that Israel has lost control over the north of the country. Another stated, after the stunning footage from a Hezbollah drone conducting recon over sensitive sites in Haifa, that Hezbollah is in important respects a peer opponent in terms of technology.

Next came the blowup over Netanyahu’s attempt to blackmail the US government. It’s not clear what his demands were—probably something amounting to a commitment of US forces on the ground, or support for the use of tactical nukes in Lebanon. I characterize Netanyahu’s complaint—and remember that Netanyahu is a psychopathic liar—that the US was holding back war materiel from Israel as blackmail for this reason. In his statement Netanyahu said: Give us the weapons and we will finish the job. Now, of course that’s not true, but the important point is that, in berating the Zhou administration, Netanyahu resorted quite deliberately to Trump’s rhetoric about “finishing the job.” That amounted to a threat—days before Netanyahu is scheduled to receive the obeisance of Congress—to use his mastery of the US elected political establishment to, in effect, campaign for Trump against Zhou. Zhou’s minders were initially caught off guard, but have now reacted angrily. Even GOPers may realize the danger in allowing such open interference in a US presidential campaign.

Yesterday, Hezbollah hit at the heart of the impending war effort against Lebanon. Bear in mind that the US strategy in Lebanon is led by an Israeli citizen and IOF vet, Amos Hochstein. Hochstein has been trying to blame the Lebanese government for Hezbollah’s actions—despite the patent fact that the Lebanese government has essentially no control over Hezbollah, and that Hezbollah has political allies even among Christian Lebanese—via Megatron:

US told Lebanon that it will back the Israeli offensive, as frustration with the Gaza ceasefire grows - Middle East Eye

Israeli-Born U.S. Official and Advisor to President Joe Biden, Amos Hochstein reportedly told Senior Lebanese Officials, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, yesterday during a High-Level Meeting in the Capital of Beirut, that Israel is preparing to launch a Limited Invasion of Southern Lebanon with the Goal of Pushing any Hezbollah Forces back across the Litani River.

Hochstein further stated that they expect the Invasion to begin within the next 5-Weeks, and if Hezbollah does not Halt Attacks on Northern Israel and Agree to a Diplomatic Option, than the Israeli Operation will be Supported by the United States and Allies.

That amounts to a veiled demand that the Lebanese government plunge its country into a civil war, or the US would enter into Israel’s threatened war on Lebanon—the Israelis have made it clear that they intend to target wide swathes of Lebanon, not only Hezbollah areas.

Now, Turkey has been conducting ISR flights over Cyprus—bear that in mind when considering Hezbollah’s response to these developments. My guess is that Turkey— which has held high level talks recently with Iran, even more recently applied for membership in BRICS, and whose public is enflamed against Israel’s genocide against Palestinians—confirmed for Hezbollah that Israeli military planes are using facilities in Cyprus. Those facilities may be US/UK facilities, but that makes no difference to Hezbollah—Hochstein is threatening US/UK attacks on Lebanon. It is a matter of open knowledge that US/UK ISR flights along the Lebanon coast are a constant these days.

Hezbollah’s response, reported yesterday, was to warn Cyprus that Cyprus would be targeted by Hezbollah if they allow Israeli military use of facilities on the island of Cyprus. Cyprus officials were understandably alarmed.

That brings us to the big news of the day—an bombshell article in the impeccably Zionist and Neocon WSJ.

Israeli Military Says Hamas Can’t Be Destroyed, Escalating Feud With Netanyahu

Top spokesman questions viability of ‘total victory’ goal in rare public challenge to prime minister

A rift between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s military leadership is spilling increasingly into the open after the armed forces’ top spokesman said Netanyahu’s aim of destroying Hamas in Gaza is unachievable.

“The idea that we can destroy Hamas or make Hamas disappear is misleading to the public,” military spokesman Daniel Hagari told Israeli television on Wednesday night.

Remember that Netanyahu is not the CinC. Still, this is a big step—the Israeli top command meddling in political decision making. What could justify this?

Reliable reports are that Israel has already suffered 70,000 dead and “permanently injured” since October 7. Those are unsustainable losses—and the true number may be more—that would expand vastly with any attempt at an invasion of Lebanon. It also demonstrates the very real limitations of the IOF’s capabilities—it isn’t ready, and probably never will be, for a conventional war with Hezbollah. Not to mention the devastation to Israel itself from Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. There is also the economic devastation that has already been inflicted by the Houthi blockade, which is expanding. Perhaps equally importantly is the diplomatic isolation of Israel, which deepens daily, and Netanyahu’s clumsy attempts to blackmail the US government—threatening to accomplish a serious break in relations with the US. The US cannot afford to be seen bending its knee to Netanyahu on the world stage.

All these, I suggest, are reasons why the Israeli military felt it had no choice but to step in. The military probably understands that Israel’s only chance against Hezbollah would involve the use of tactical nukes—which could very probably usher in Armageddon. The global reaction would be powerfully negative, with unforseeable consequences for the physical survival of Israel. What they have in mind isn’t clear, but what is clear is that they recognize the need to end the genocide on terms that are not dictated by military force. They clearly see Netanyahu leading Israel to the brink, more and more obviously for the sake of personal political survival.

For anyone interested in a longer discussion, Judge Nap and Scott Ritter. I don’t agree with everything Scott and the Judge say, but their main points are well articulated:

Scott Ritter : Netanyahu Destroying Israel

No doubt there will be more commentary.