Yesterday CTH ran a post that raised a lot of important issues, although I disagreed with its key point. I was turning it around in my mind, thinking of addressing that key point, but decided to hold off. Part of my thinking was that it all played into additional geopolitical complications—the patent US and NATO campaign of provocations against Russia and China. None of this can be viewed in isolation, not if you want a clear perspective on where humanity is at this point in history. The hot war in Ukraine, the economic sanctions war against Russia, domestic US politics and EU politics—it’s all intertwined. Another reason to postpone addressing this post is because Alex Mercouris said yesterday that he will be debating these issues with Tom Luongo in the near future—and that he disagrees with Luongo (as presented below).
I agree strongly with both your numbered points, Mark (and also with Luongo). I would like to see CTH provide any sort of evidence that there is coordination on interest rate increases between the ECB and the Fed. The last thing the ECB wants or needs is to raise rates. They are in a much tighter squeeze than the Fed is with much less room to maneuver. Every time the Fed raises rates it gets worse for them. I get the sense that CTH sometimes finds it too easy to present facile, all-encompassing theories. Thanks for the post.
Luongo's point--and I don't pretend to understand all this--is that the ECB is *reacting* to what the Fed is doing, not coordinating. Luongo maintains, compellingingly IMO, that the Fed is acting against the ECB's interests. As you say. Thank YOU.
And the Europeans are fu***d, no two ways about that. There won't be America coming to save them this time. When the time comes, even the Biden puppet will cut them loose by restricting energy exports to them. The only thing that is holding them up right now are the liquified natural gas exports that have risen quite a bit to cover the loss of the Russian gas, but that will stop the minute US gas futures start to rival those in the EU.
I think Luongo is a bit of a nut, but a lot of what he writes is good. I guess I would be in the other camp that the Fed really is part of the world governing class, but perhaps Jerome Powell is not. I do think interest rates need to go up a lot more, and I have doubted the entire time that Powell wil eventually stop well short of where he needs to take them, and I have bet that way financially starting several months back, but I could be wrong.
My main thesis is this- Powell needs to induce a big recession to put a stake through the heart of this inflationary pulse, and I think he does want to do this. I just don't think he has the power to do so, and if push comes to shove, and Luongo is correct, Biden or whoever is running the country using the Biden hand puppet will fire Powell and the board members who are supporting him.
I think there's broad agreement that the Fed is part of the global ruling class. That doesn't mean that they share the Davos vision.
They probably both want to set up some sort of feudal society, but if they are truly opposed to each other then it's probably on the realist-idealist spectrum.
Among these lines, Davos will kill the world to save it; the Fed just wants renters.
Well stated. I think Yancey's version of what Luongo is actually saying misses Luongo's real point. Luongo specifically states that this is a battle of giants and that the NY Guys--who are the power behind the Fed--are the biggest giants on the global scene. And there's more ...
This may have been two days ago. It was toward the end of conversation with Alex Christoforou. He stated that he disagreed with you regarding the reason for the Fed raising interest rates, but without stating his own position. He also stated that he would be--and I forget his exact words--at least contrasting if not debating you in that regard in a forthcoming conversation with you and Crypto Rich. I'll see if I can locate the exact place this was said.
It's very hard to argue with any of what you, Luongo or CTH say. The battle will be long and bloody for all of us, and, to compare with WW1, 1918 will turn out unimaginably different from what was expected in 1914. I'd like to instill a little optimism here and say that Davos has already failed. They will never control the planet because they have lost Russia and China, and most of Asia and will never control them. Also, while Europe is dead and gone, significant parts of America will resist.
Thanks for this article and your work. I don't agree that Trump is gone or "out of the way," though it may seem that way. Trump is totally enmeshed in the RNC and its finances, at minimum a front man, a salesman, for RNC and Jared (and his groups). In 2019 Trump and Jared brought "Winred" to the RNC much to the delight of Henry Barbour per 3/9/2020 NY Times article: ““It is completely, thoroughly ironic that Trump, who ran against anything to do with the R.N.C. and the establishment, is the guy who is breathing new life into the party,” said WinRed’s chairman, Henry Barbour….Mr. Barbour is also chairman of the other central pillar of the Republican machine, Data Trust.”…[Henry Barbour has been a Republican National Committee official since 2005. He is also a lobbyist for Capitol Resources LLC].
NY Times: “Working under the aegis of Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, with the cooperation of…the Republican National Committee, the operatives have consolidated power–and made money–in a way not possible in an earlier, more transparent analog era….
A fierce pressure campaign to centralize fund-raising on the new platform, a for-profit company that Mr. Trump branded WinRed, brought dissent from candidates initially reluctant to sign on, as well as competitors who believed they were being pushed aside without a fair hearing….[Henry] Barbour is also chairman of the other central pillar of the Republican machine, Data Trust…a private company controlled by a board of Republican grandees,… a storehouse of personal, commercial and demographic voter data collected from state parties and voter files or bought from data brokers (or from WinRed, itself a vital source of donor information)….
The Trump family looms over the whole operation, starting with Mr. Kushner. While his White House portfolio has variously encompassed everything from immigration to the Middle East, his most consistent assignment has been informal campaign chairman,
overseeing the most vital arm of
the new family business:
politics."..
NY Times headline below is to fool the rubes and is the exact opposite of reality. The GOP took over the Trump campaign. Most "Conservative" and/or "populist" candidates use WinRed, which, as NY Times reported, is an RNC profit-making product:
3/9/20, 12/24/20, “How Trump Campaign Took Over the G.O.P.,” NY Times, Danny Hakim, Glenn Thrush, Washington
A centrally controlled Digital Currency would destroy their business model.
I noticed a couple of items taking aim at the raw material, such as gold, financial manipulation that feeds the banks profits.
And China is having severe economic issues. Turkey also.
And there should be a sea of immigrants flooding Europe soon, due to the greening of Africa and of food production. Starving people will migrate.
I hope Trumps 4th amendment suit succeeds. The Doj should have left Trump alone after he left office, since now he’s unrestrained in fighting back. Going after his CFO made it personal.
I would suggest that the upcoming elections will be the biggest "tell". If the conservatives i e those Republicans opposed to McConnell, get control of the senate and win the House then we will have a chance to defeat the Davosians (to coin a phrase).
Otherwise, "The deluge" as a famous Frenchman once said.
I have been predicting over a year now that the Republicans will "lose" this coming election- I hope I am wrong, but that is what I see. The GOP hasn't done really anything to stop the mail-in-voting, and the Democrats intend to do exactly what they did starting in 2018 and expanded in the 2020 election- simply stuff the ballot boxes with mail in votes in the deep blue cities. This will guarantee they win the Senate and probably every single contested Senate election. I predict they end up with 55+ Senate seats. Stuffing box is less effective at winning the House, but I think is likely they retain about the same level of House members as they did in 2020, and might pick up a handful in California and New York that they lost in 2020.
But I wonder what the public reaction will be. The demographic indicators are screaming slaughter. Is it about 55% who think 2020 was stolen? What happens if 60-65% think that 2022 is stolen...?
I think we are way beyond elections, but am willing to wait and see what happens after Nov. I'm not hopeful, however. Assuming the Dems don't steal the vote again (massive assumption), then I don't expect a GOP congress to do anything to oppose Davos. It will still be controlled by the pro-Davos GOPe. Let's see if on Day 2 they defund the IRS of it's new capabilities.
I think on the Not the BBC podcast, Tom suggested that Wuhan was an act at the behest of Davos to foment anger towards China. Amazing times we're living in.
Very good description. Add to this the tremendous costs EU countries are incurring from their self-induced energy shortages/crises (paying exorbitant amounts for LNG just to make it through the coming Winter). Then add in the impact of that on their industries either shutting down or moving away due to a lack of ability to compete due to such costs (reduced tax revenues either way). Then add in the Fed pouring on the interest rate gasoline. The increasing Fed rates will not only directly impact the EUs bank finances negatively but will also impact the ability of emerging market countries in the ME and Africa to purchase food, energy, and pay their debts - see how long Europe can support all of the additional immigrants resulting from that.
That's one of the things Luongo says in the interview. These Davos folks don't recognize anything but bare knuckles. The NY Guys aren't doing this because they're philanthropists--they're protecting their own interests.
All of that fits right in with what Luongo is saying--including why the Dow is where it's at. He asks, where are you gonna put your money, in Europe? Euros are looking to put their money over here. He also argues that the US financial sector is in a much better position to force policy sanity on the DC establishment in the long term. To me, that has to mean doing something about the Progs and Davos groupies who are currently at the controls. We shall see. Thanks for the input.
Along these lines, Chris Irons of the Quoth the Raven pod interviews the profound and provocative Andy Schectman.
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/stocks-bonds-real-estate-and-the
You're mistaken if you think CTH is some kind of front for a republican faction.
Here is a good read: (all four parts)
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/08/11/part-4-what-was-in-the-trump-documents-creating-such-fear-in-doj-and-fbi/
You know there's an explanation, so what is it? People in KY can't get enough of war? Or maybe someone is paying Mitch to monger for more war?
McConnell Returns From Ukraine With Ravenous Lust For War
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4087051/posts
I agree strongly with both your numbered points, Mark (and also with Luongo). I would like to see CTH provide any sort of evidence that there is coordination on interest rate increases between the ECB and the Fed. The last thing the ECB wants or needs is to raise rates. They are in a much tighter squeeze than the Fed is with much less room to maneuver. Every time the Fed raises rates it gets worse for them. I get the sense that CTH sometimes finds it too easy to present facile, all-encompassing theories. Thanks for the post.
Luongo's point--and I don't pretend to understand all this--is that the ECB is *reacting* to what the Fed is doing, not coordinating. Luongo maintains, compellingingly IMO, that the Fed is acting against the ECB's interests. As you say. Thank YOU.
And the Europeans are fu***d, no two ways about that. There won't be America coming to save them this time. When the time comes, even the Biden puppet will cut them loose by restricting energy exports to them. The only thing that is holding them up right now are the liquified natural gas exports that have risen quite a bit to cover the loss of the Russian gas, but that will stop the minute US gas futures start to rival those in the EU.
I think Luongo is a bit of a nut, but a lot of what he writes is good. I guess I would be in the other camp that the Fed really is part of the world governing class, but perhaps Jerome Powell is not. I do think interest rates need to go up a lot more, and I have doubted the entire time that Powell wil eventually stop well short of where he needs to take them, and I have bet that way financially starting several months back, but I could be wrong.
My main thesis is this- Powell needs to induce a big recession to put a stake through the heart of this inflationary pulse, and I think he does want to do this. I just don't think he has the power to do so, and if push comes to shove, and Luongo is correct, Biden or whoever is running the country using the Biden hand puppet will fire Powell and the board members who are supporting him.
I think there's broad agreement that the Fed is part of the global ruling class. That doesn't mean that they share the Davos vision.
They probably both want to set up some sort of feudal society, but if they are truly opposed to each other then it's probably on the realist-idealist spectrum.
Among these lines, Davos will kill the world to save it; the Fed just wants renters.
Well stated. I think Yancey's version of what Luongo is actually saying misses Luongo's real point. Luongo specifically states that this is a battle of giants and that the NY Guys--who are the power behind the Fed--are the biggest giants on the global scene. And there's more ...
Luongo is explicitly speaking of *a split at the top of the power structure*--his words.
Where did Alex M. say he disagreed with me on this? He hasn't said anything to me. A little help here, as it's been a helluva week.
This may have been two days ago. It was toward the end of conversation with Alex Christoforou. He stated that he disagreed with you regarding the reason for the Fed raising interest rates, but without stating his own position. He also stated that he would be--and I forget his exact words--at least contrasting if not debating you in that regard in a forthcoming conversation with you and Crypto Rich. I'll see if I can locate the exact place this was said.
It's very hard to argue with any of what you, Luongo or CTH say. The battle will be long and bloody for all of us, and, to compare with WW1, 1918 will turn out unimaginably different from what was expected in 1914. I'd like to instill a little optimism here and say that Davos has already failed. They will never control the planet because they have lost Russia and China, and most of Asia and will never control them. Also, while Europe is dead and gone, significant parts of America will resist.
Thanks for this article and your work. I don't agree that Trump is gone or "out of the way," though it may seem that way. Trump is totally enmeshed in the RNC and its finances, at minimum a front man, a salesman, for RNC and Jared (and his groups). In 2019 Trump and Jared brought "Winred" to the RNC much to the delight of Henry Barbour per 3/9/2020 NY Times article: ““It is completely, thoroughly ironic that Trump, who ran against anything to do with the R.N.C. and the establishment, is the guy who is breathing new life into the party,” said WinRed’s chairman, Henry Barbour….Mr. Barbour is also chairman of the other central pillar of the Republican machine, Data Trust.”…[Henry Barbour has been a Republican National Committee official since 2005. He is also a lobbyist for Capitol Resources LLC].
NY Times: “Working under the aegis of Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, with the cooperation of…the Republican National Committee, the operatives have consolidated power–and made money–in a way not possible in an earlier, more transparent analog era….
A fierce pressure campaign to centralize fund-raising on the new platform, a for-profit company that Mr. Trump branded WinRed, brought dissent from candidates initially reluctant to sign on, as well as competitors who believed they were being pushed aside without a fair hearing….[Henry] Barbour is also chairman of the other central pillar of the Republican machine, Data Trust…a private company controlled by a board of Republican grandees,… a storehouse of personal, commercial and demographic voter data collected from state parties and voter files or bought from data brokers (or from WinRed, itself a vital source of donor information)….
The Trump family looms over the whole operation, starting with Mr. Kushner. While his White House portfolio has variously encompassed everything from immigration to the Middle East, his most consistent assignment has been informal campaign chairman,
overseeing the most vital arm of
the new family business:
politics."..
NY Times headline below is to fool the rubes and is the exact opposite of reality. The GOP took over the Trump campaign. Most "Conservative" and/or "populist" candidates use WinRed, which, as NY Times reported, is an RNC profit-making product:
3/9/20, 12/24/20, “How Trump Campaign Took Over the G.O.P.,” NY Times, Danny Hakim, Glenn Thrush, Washington
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/us/trump-campaign-brad-parscale.html
Thanks. I read that at the time but, like so much else, it slipped my mind.
NY Banks I’m not sure what they want.
A centrally controlled Digital Currency would destroy their business model.
I noticed a couple of items taking aim at the raw material, such as gold, financial manipulation that feeds the banks profits.
And China is having severe economic issues. Turkey also.
And there should be a sea of immigrants flooding Europe soon, due to the greening of Africa and of food production. Starving people will migrate.
I hope Trumps 4th amendment suit succeeds. The Doj should have left Trump alone after he left office, since now he’s unrestrained in fighting back. Going after his CFO made it personal.
It’s always been personal with DJT. Now it is a battle royale, winner takes all.
I would suggest that the upcoming elections will be the biggest "tell". If the conservatives i e those Republicans opposed to McConnell, get control of the senate and win the House then we will have a chance to defeat the Davosians (to coin a phrase).
Otherwise, "The deluge" as a famous Frenchman once said.
I have been predicting over a year now that the Republicans will "lose" this coming election- I hope I am wrong, but that is what I see. The GOP hasn't done really anything to stop the mail-in-voting, and the Democrats intend to do exactly what they did starting in 2018 and expanded in the 2020 election- simply stuff the ballot boxes with mail in votes in the deep blue cities. This will guarantee they win the Senate and probably every single contested Senate election. I predict they end up with 55+ Senate seats. Stuffing box is less effective at winning the House, but I think is likely they retain about the same level of House members as they did in 2020, and might pick up a handful in California and New York that they lost in 2020.
Hard to refute this.
But I wonder what the public reaction will be. The demographic indicators are screaming slaughter. Is it about 55% who think 2020 was stolen? What happens if 60-65% think that 2022 is stolen...?
I expect you're right. That's why they're not doing much. Just like two years ago they know the outcome already. Too bad.
I think we are way beyond elections, but am willing to wait and see what happens after Nov. I'm not hopeful, however. Assuming the Dems don't steal the vote again (massive assumption), then I don't expect a GOP congress to do anything to oppose Davos. It will still be controlled by the pro-Davos GOPe. Let's see if on Day 2 they defund the IRS of it's new capabilities.
I think on the Not the BBC podcast, Tom suggested that Wuhan was an act at the behest of Davos to foment anger towards China. Amazing times we're living in.
I forgot to add the MAL Raid into the mix.
Very good description. Add to this the tremendous costs EU countries are incurring from their self-induced energy shortages/crises (paying exorbitant amounts for LNG just to make it through the coming Winter). Then add in the impact of that on their industries either shutting down or moving away due to a lack of ability to compete due to such costs (reduced tax revenues either way). Then add in the Fed pouring on the interest rate gasoline. The increasing Fed rates will not only directly impact the EUs bank finances negatively but will also impact the ability of emerging market countries in the ME and Africa to purchase food, energy, and pay their debts - see how long Europe can support all of the additional immigrants resulting from that.
That's one of the things Luongo says in the interview. These Davos folks don't recognize anything but bare knuckles. The NY Guys aren't doing this because they're philanthropists--they're protecting their own interests.
All of that fits right in with what Luongo is saying--including why the Dow is where it's at. He asks, where are you gonna put your money, in Europe? Euros are looking to put their money over here. He also argues that the US financial sector is in a much better position to force policy sanity on the DC establishment in the long term. To me, that has to mean doing something about the Progs and Davos groupies who are currently at the controls. We shall see. Thanks for the input.
He's ancient. Hopefully, he will bow out soon.
McConnell, that is, not Mike Hudson :)