The Israelis have boxed themselves in. There is no turning back for that "current" government. They will continue that war until they have either: exhausted themselves, have a coup or find their country a bombed-out waste land. I think it was MacGregor or LTC Davis who said,:
"The way Netanyahu has laid out the Israeli war aims for victory is that all Hezbollah has to do to win the war, is just to survive."
And I agree with that, as it currently stands.. Bibi's stated goal for victory is to allow the people in Northern Israel to return home to a safe environment. That will not happen until the Gaza issue is settled. And Bibi's idea of "settling" the issue in Gaza is to conduct Operation Warsaw Ghetto 2.0. To repeat myself.....
Television (terror and PR you mention) does not work like it used to! How about that? The old ways, which is to say the ways of the modern electric world that gave birth to the State, and idea, of Israel, no longer work. The paradigm is dead.
So there are some very smart people in Israel. Not likely that they has not noticed in the last couple odd decades that the West had less effect and that the “narratives” were changing and moving against the West and it’s surrogate in the ME, Israel. So what to do…? No joke.
Might there have been “reports” and table top gaming that had projected Israel no longer existing at some point, at least in a way that they had assumed for decades: one state and dominant in the region? Bet there were.
Can’t wait until that happens, too late then. So better to take one’s chance before then. At least some calculated this.
For all the talk about the mess that the US is culture and politics wise (the effects of globalism fantasies) Israel has this in spades and with a smaller and armed population. Liberals, conservatives. Left, right. Secular, religious. Fantasy (we can be a liberal democracy), reality (as in we will have to kill these people). Unlike the US, some projected that they might not survive another couple of decades…yes the world had changed that much and they knew it, even if we had not been paying attention.
The DIGITAL paradigm blew it all up. All new coming…
Hey Mark. Absolutely correct. Interestingly Israel as a state and idea came about during the Electric Paradigm, as a state just as Television was becoming the thing in the West. What has happened in the last couple of decades is that going Digital, has brought all that came before it into question: modernity has been destroyed and all that came with it questioned. It is now that everyone recognizes that to maintain the fiction requires violence that is now questioned by all and not accepted.
In the Digital Paradigm, what “worked” in the prior paradigm will not be accepted by others. So Israel will have to become something else, will it be the 2 states? or potentially cease to exist? Until now no one talked about this openly, but Trump mentioned this just last week, strongly suggesting that Israel may not be around in the long term. The hint is that a Trump admin won’t go down the same rabbit hole.
Israel has no constitution in the way we think of it. The US does, obviously. They make up new rules as they go along. This is now coming under severe questioning. We have a history of constitutional government to point back towards. But even our own situation has come under duress. Can a constitution designed under very different circumstances for a people who understood themselves and the world differently work in the Digital Paradigm? After the US elections there is become a drumbeat from many quarters for a new constitution. Who steps up and gets traction on this and what they advocate will be very interesting.
I'm trying to get a picture of how many people are leaving Israel. The numbers from Middle East Eye don't match the numbers reported by the Israeli press, and most of the articles I found are out of date at this point. They all agree that people are leaving in numbers though, a trend that began before Oct. 7th but has accelerated since then. Given that the Jewish population is just over 7 million, it seems like a demographic problem with huge implications for the future, especially if, as reported, many are professionals and either young single or married couples.
Speaking of demographics, Israel's birthrate numbers mask a decline in births attributable to liberal Jews as opposed to Orthodox, which also has political implications for the future, if indeed Israel has a future. At the rate they're going that's a big question mark.
Does anyone have reliable recent numbers on the amount of emigration taking place?
That's basically the same search I did. MEM has the number at 1/2M by Dec 23, while Haarzet has 'tens of thousands' by Sept 23. so quite a discrepancy, and Globes says 'Emigration is notoriously difficult to measure, and different Israeli agencies come up with different figures.' which to me sounds like a dodge.
I get the impression they don't want to admit the numbers that MEM is reporting. I did discover an interesting fact that I didn't know before. Apparently for much of Israel's early history you needed an exit visa to leave the country and those were hard to get. I imagine it's hard to leave right now as well, with major airlines now cancelling flights.
If MEM's numbers are correct that's quite a bite out of a population of 9M. They don't break it down by ethnicity, so how many who've left are Muslims or Christians vs. Jews is an open question, as is the number of military age men who've left.
A lot of guest workers have bailed too, so between that, the loss of Palestinian workers and the call-up, there's now a critical labour shortage.
You can see why their military leaders are opposed to any sort of escalation. They simply don't have the numbers to wage the kind of war that Netanyahu is pushing for. Even without the drain on the population it was madness to even contemplate, given who and what they're up against, even when you leave Iran out of the equation. Same sort of situation you see in Ukraine. 48M (at the outset) against 145M. Those number would give anyone with any understanding of military planning extreme pause. It's a set up for disaster. No other way of looking at it.
We should have listened to Washington, “ urged the United States to avoid permanent alliances with foreign nations and instead pursue a policy of "peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none". Washington's advice was based on his own experiences and a desire to keep the young nation out of foreign wars. He believed that the United States should focus on its own interests and maintain a neutral stance with other governments.”
The bottom line is the neocons have no morality but they don’t care because they’re getting very rich from their actions and throwing America and the world under the bus
I've seen several news snippets saying we are sending additional troops to the Middle East due to rising tensions. Its 11:10 pm here and I'm watching 8 C-17A Globemaster III Air Force planes in the sky - 7 coming from Spain/UK/Germany, headed to Cyprus, 1 just took off from Cyprus. Could be hauling troops and/or equipment. Its alarming, as I've never seen anything like this, even during this entire Rus/Ukr conflict.
My understanding--subject to correction--is that those troops are going to protect and extract US citizens in the event of major war spreading. Lots of spec re these flights.
According to this article at zerohedge (by another substacker!) after blowing up Two Tier Kier's meeting with Biden, the military told Boobandyahu that if he starts a war with hezbollah, he's on his own. I want it to be true.
I disagreed with Alex Krainer's take on that. A coup is a usurpation of legit authority. This was the DoD insisting that the POTUS actually exercise his *personal* CinC constitutional status--which was being usurped not by DoD but by the Blinkens and Nulands and Haines and others in the non-DoD branches of the Deep State. DoD was insisting on a return to the constitutional process of decision making in which the POTUS sets policy and is entitled to the full advice of his cabinet officers. Including DoD. As cabinet officers they have the right to fully present their views and advice to the POTUS on matters in which they have expertise, rather than being short circuited by amateurs like the Neocons. I loathe them all, but it's better that the constitutional framework be followed.
"Coup" is a strong word. I certainly recognize your definition. The "legal authority" in the Executive Branch should lie with Zhou. He seemed enraged at his meeting with the Brits (for reasons unknown). Was it because he was forced to act against his wishes? - Maybe that would constitute a coup. Or was he enraged against his advisors for counseling him to approve the long range missiles into Russia when he wanted to refuse that advice? Who knows? So, yes, there is no irrefutable evidence of a coup. But there IS evidence that Blinken and maybe Sullivan didn't get their desired outcome.
I hope the constitutional chain of power was followed but who really knows? What we do seem to know is that the DoD had the strongest impetus to resist the escalation narrative, and they seem to have succeeded for now (a day or so).
I have always had the utmost faith in Alex Krainer and what he reports. I believe he is correct that the DoD is concurrently advising against and preventing WWIII. I also can believe the report he makes regarding the UK trying to do an end-run around normal U.S. treaty processes in supporting Ukraine (that's an easy conjecture).
When will the U.S. tell the U.K. where to go? And why not? I don't get the dependency on them from our perspective outside of the historical CIA-MI6 nexus. What's in it for us? Is MI6 blackmailing us? We provide the money, arms, intelligence agency info and government coups, propaganda, and everything else to support the ongoing existence and expansion of their empire. What do they provide to us? The Beatles 60 years ago? Why do we do it?
None other than a total idiot, a psychopath, and/or someone bereft of Christian morals and religious convictions should have any illusions by now as to the Israeli's goals and methods. I realize that there are way too many of such people in the U.S. government leadership and in the foreign policy establishment. If they lead us to WWIII and its attendant physical destruction, we must pray that God will apply His justice through the lens of His mercy and grace to us through the sacrifice of His Son, who is in the end our only hope.
Those that do not have a financial interest such as Linsey Graham and others like him most are simply genuflecting at the altar of Shlomo idolatry (ala Trump) and submission to the eternal victim canard that has been a Zionist propaganda effort for over 75 years. We've been social engineered through Hollywood fantasies and the academics re-telling of history to fit their story lines.
It appears the US and Israel underestimated greatly how Ukraine would effect the world.
US lost considerable diplomatic credibility in Ukraine as Russia China Iran BRICS grow quickly.
It appears neither US or Israel considered how Russia China Iran would be pushed together ( though it was an obvious result)., and to make matters worse, the US continues actions to push them further together (eg: constant threats to China)
Us lost monetarily, as well as the moral high ground. Constantly reported is how Innocent Ukrainian Civilians are rounded up, kidnapped off the streets and forced to fight without proper training or weapons. It appears by all accounts that the lower income and lower educated are forced to fight by beatings or at gunpoint, the US not only pays for it all but appears to condition free flowing money on the ' mobilization ' of more innocent civilians.
The US is the indespensable nation; Ukraine is from all appearances dispensable.
US and Israel lost considerably more credibility in Gaza; the world is aghast.
So many errors too numerous to list. eg: Just as the US understimated the capability of Russian artillery they underestimated Yemen as well they underestimated Hamas.
US and Israel on both fronts appear to have only planned for a ' quick ' result, never imagining much less planning for a war of attrition. A complete diplomatic failure; a complete military failure.
And now the US has the stain of Genocide; the founding father of the Genocide Convention
after Germany and WWII is the diplomatic economic and miltary foundation of the Israeli Genocide.
The founding father of the United Nations now ignores the rulings if they are not able to veto.
The only argument appears to be, is the US merely complicit in the Genocide or is the US taking an active role and leading in it.
Well just one persons opinion and pondering.
I opine many of us feel helpless as our Country continues to stain us with the Genocide and as we must sit and watch the brutality and slaughter.
Oh by the way,one last thing..... To answer your question
How's That Israeli Plan Working?
like that covid vaccine.......both safe and effective... (;
LOL!
The Israelis have boxed themselves in. There is no turning back for that "current" government. They will continue that war until they have either: exhausted themselves, have a coup or find their country a bombed-out waste land. I think it was MacGregor or LTC Davis who said,:
"The way Netanyahu has laid out the Israeli war aims for victory is that all Hezbollah has to do to win the war, is just to survive."
And I agree with that, as it currently stands.. Bibi's stated goal for victory is to allow the people in Northern Israel to return home to a safe environment. That will not happen until the Gaza issue is settled. And Bibi's idea of "settling" the issue in Gaza is to conduct Operation Warsaw Ghetto 2.0. To repeat myself.....
They are boxed in.
When Ahab beckons, we all shall follow.
"The way Netanyahu has laid out the Israeli war aims for victory is that all Hezbollah has to do to win the war, is just to survive."
Yes. It's nuts, stupid, fanatical, runs counter to contact with the real world, suicidal ...
Television (terror and PR you mention) does not work like it used to! How about that? The old ways, which is to say the ways of the modern electric world that gave birth to the State, and idea, of Israel, no longer work. The paradigm is dead.
So there are some very smart people in Israel. Not likely that they has not noticed in the last couple odd decades that the West had less effect and that the “narratives” were changing and moving against the West and it’s surrogate in the ME, Israel. So what to do…? No joke.
Might there have been “reports” and table top gaming that had projected Israel no longer existing at some point, at least in a way that they had assumed for decades: one state and dominant in the region? Bet there were.
Can’t wait until that happens, too late then. So better to take one’s chance before then. At least some calculated this.
For all the talk about the mess that the US is culture and politics wise (the effects of globalism fantasies) Israel has this in spades and with a smaller and armed population. Liberals, conservatives. Left, right. Secular, religious. Fantasy (we can be a liberal democracy), reality (as in we will have to kill these people). Unlike the US, some projected that they might not survive another couple of decades…yes the world had changed that much and they knew it, even if we had not been paying attention.
The DIGITAL paradigm blew it all up. All new coming…
"Fantasy (we can be a liberal democracy), reality (as in we will have to kill these people)."
That was all present long before the DIGITAL paradigm. Remember the Nakba?
Hey Mark. Absolutely correct. Interestingly Israel as a state and idea came about during the Electric Paradigm, as a state just as Television was becoming the thing in the West. What has happened in the last couple of decades is that going Digital, has brought all that came before it into question: modernity has been destroyed and all that came with it questioned. It is now that everyone recognizes that to maintain the fiction requires violence that is now questioned by all and not accepted.
In the Digital Paradigm, what “worked” in the prior paradigm will not be accepted by others. So Israel will have to become something else, will it be the 2 states? or potentially cease to exist? Until now no one talked about this openly, but Trump mentioned this just last week, strongly suggesting that Israel may not be around in the long term. The hint is that a Trump admin won’t go down the same rabbit hole.
Israel has no constitution in the way we think of it. The US does, obviously. They make up new rules as they go along. This is now coming under severe questioning. We have a history of constitutional government to point back towards. But even our own situation has come under duress. Can a constitution designed under very different circumstances for a people who understood themselves and the world differently work in the Digital Paradigm? After the US elections there is become a drumbeat from many quarters for a new constitution. Who steps up and gets traction on this and what they advocate will be very interesting.
I'm trying to get a picture of how many people are leaving Israel. The numbers from Middle East Eye don't match the numbers reported by the Israeli press, and most of the articles I found are out of date at this point. They all agree that people are leaving in numbers though, a trend that began before Oct. 7th but has accelerated since then. Given that the Jewish population is just over 7 million, it seems like a demographic problem with huge implications for the future, especially if, as reported, many are professionals and either young single or married couples.
Speaking of demographics, Israel's birthrate numbers mask a decline in births attributable to liberal Jews as opposed to Orthodox, which also has political implications for the future, if indeed Israel has a future. At the rate they're going that's a big question mark.
Does anyone have reliable recent numbers on the amount of emigration taking place?
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=how+many+israelis+have+left+since+october+7th&ia=web
That's basically the same search I did. MEM has the number at 1/2M by Dec 23, while Haarzet has 'tens of thousands' by Sept 23. so quite a discrepancy, and Globes says 'Emigration is notoriously difficult to measure, and different Israeli agencies come up with different figures.' which to me sounds like a dodge.
I get the impression they don't want to admit the numbers that MEM is reporting. I did discover an interesting fact that I didn't know before. Apparently for much of Israel's early history you needed an exit visa to leave the country and those were hard to get. I imagine it's hard to leave right now as well, with major airlines now cancelling flights.
If MEM's numbers are correct that's quite a bite out of a population of 9M. They don't break it down by ethnicity, so how many who've left are Muslims or Christians vs. Jews is an open question, as is the number of military age men who've left.
A lot of guest workers have bailed too, so between that, the loss of Palestinian workers and the call-up, there's now a critical labour shortage.
You can see why their military leaders are opposed to any sort of escalation. They simply don't have the numbers to wage the kind of war that Netanyahu is pushing for. Even without the drain on the population it was madness to even contemplate, given who and what they're up against, even when you leave Iran out of the equation. Same sort of situation you see in Ukraine. 48M (at the outset) against 145M. Those number would give anyone with any understanding of military planning extreme pause. It's a set up for disaster. No other way of looking at it.
Another article from the cradle - troubling…
https://thecradle.co/articles/justice-is-sleeping-yezidis-struggle-to-punish-kurds-who-greenlit-genocide
My attitude is all sides in the Middle East lie (tribes come first), and the less the US is involved the better.
We should have listened to Washington, “ urged the United States to avoid permanent alliances with foreign nations and instead pursue a policy of "peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none". Washington's advice was based on his own experiences and a desire to keep the young nation out of foreign wars. He believed that the United States should focus on its own interests and maintain a neutral stance with other governments.”
The bottom line is the neocons have no morality but they don’t care because they’re getting very rich from their actions and throwing America and the world under the bus
I've seen several news snippets saying we are sending additional troops to the Middle East due to rising tensions. Its 11:10 pm here and I'm watching 8 C-17A Globemaster III Air Force planes in the sky - 7 coming from Spain/UK/Germany, headed to Cyprus, 1 just took off from Cyprus. Could be hauling troops and/or equipment. Its alarming, as I've never seen anything like this, even during this entire Rus/Ukr conflict.
Thank you for that information;' I try to always peruse the comment section to glean information. Yours was very helpful, Thank You.
My understanding--subject to correction--is that those troops are going to protect and extract US citizens in the event of major war spreading. Lots of spec re these flights.
Thanks, Mark. I certainly hope you’re correct!
According to this article at zerohedge (by another substacker!) after blowing up Two Tier Kier's meeting with Biden, the military told Boobandyahu that if he starts a war with hezbollah, he's on his own. I want it to be true.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-09-23/was-there-palace-coup-white-house
I disagreed with Alex Krainer's take on that. A coup is a usurpation of legit authority. This was the DoD insisting that the POTUS actually exercise his *personal* CinC constitutional status--which was being usurped not by DoD but by the Blinkens and Nulands and Haines and others in the non-DoD branches of the Deep State. DoD was insisting on a return to the constitutional process of decision making in which the POTUS sets policy and is entitled to the full advice of his cabinet officers. Including DoD. As cabinet officers they have the right to fully present their views and advice to the POTUS on matters in which they have expertise, rather than being short circuited by amateurs like the Neocons. I loathe them all, but it's better that the constitutional framework be followed.
"Coup" is a strong word. I certainly recognize your definition. The "legal authority" in the Executive Branch should lie with Zhou. He seemed enraged at his meeting with the Brits (for reasons unknown). Was it because he was forced to act against his wishes? - Maybe that would constitute a coup. Or was he enraged against his advisors for counseling him to approve the long range missiles into Russia when he wanted to refuse that advice? Who knows? So, yes, there is no irrefutable evidence of a coup. But there IS evidence that Blinken and maybe Sullivan didn't get their desired outcome.
I hope the constitutional chain of power was followed but who really knows? What we do seem to know is that the DoD had the strongest impetus to resist the escalation narrative, and they seem to have succeeded for now (a day or so).
"He seemed enraged at his meeting with the Brits (for reasons unknown)."
Uncontrolled bursts of anger are symptomatic of dementia. I expect the kind of pressure Biden is under would only exacerbate the problem.
Good point.
I have always had the utmost faith in Alex Krainer and what he reports. I believe he is correct that the DoD is concurrently advising against and preventing WWIII. I also can believe the report he makes regarding the UK trying to do an end-run around normal U.S. treaty processes in supporting Ukraine (that's an easy conjecture).
When will the U.S. tell the U.K. where to go? And why not? I don't get the dependency on them from our perspective outside of the historical CIA-MI6 nexus. What's in it for us? Is MI6 blackmailing us? We provide the money, arms, intelligence agency info and government coups, propaganda, and everything else to support the ongoing existence and expansion of their empire. What do they provide to us? The Beatles 60 years ago? Why do we do it?
Tea at the Savoy? Sorry for the snark, your question is a valid one.
None other than a total idiot, a psychopath, and/or someone bereft of Christian morals and religious convictions should have any illusions by now as to the Israeli's goals and methods. I realize that there are way too many of such people in the U.S. government leadership and in the foreign policy establishment. If they lead us to WWIII and its attendant physical destruction, we must pray that God will apply His justice through the lens of His mercy and grace to us through the sacrifice of His Son, who is in the end our only hope.
Those that do not have a financial interest such as Linsey Graham and others like him most are simply genuflecting at the altar of Shlomo idolatry (ala Trump) and submission to the eternal victim canard that has been a Zionist propaganda effort for over 75 years. We've been social engineered through Hollywood fantasies and the academics re-telling of history to fit their story lines.
I’m thinking Graham has a financial interest in whatever the MIC can sell to Israel.
And I'm thinking you are right.
It appears the US and Israel underestimated greatly how Ukraine would effect the world.
US lost considerable diplomatic credibility in Ukraine as Russia China Iran BRICS grow quickly.
It appears neither US or Israel considered how Russia China Iran would be pushed together ( though it was an obvious result)., and to make matters worse, the US continues actions to push them further together (eg: constant threats to China)
Us lost monetarily, as well as the moral high ground. Constantly reported is how Innocent Ukrainian Civilians are rounded up, kidnapped off the streets and forced to fight without proper training or weapons. It appears by all accounts that the lower income and lower educated are forced to fight by beatings or at gunpoint, the US not only pays for it all but appears to condition free flowing money on the ' mobilization ' of more innocent civilians.
The US is the indespensable nation; Ukraine is from all appearances dispensable.
US and Israel lost considerably more credibility in Gaza; the world is aghast.
So many errors too numerous to list. eg: Just as the US understimated the capability of Russian artillery they underestimated Yemen as well they underestimated Hamas.
US and Israel on both fronts appear to have only planned for a ' quick ' result, never imagining much less planning for a war of attrition. A complete diplomatic failure; a complete military failure.
And now the US has the stain of Genocide; the founding father of the Genocide Convention
after Germany and WWII is the diplomatic economic and miltary foundation of the Israeli Genocide.
The founding father of the United Nations now ignores the rulings if they are not able to veto.
The only argument appears to be, is the US merely complicit in the Genocide or is the US taking an active role and leading in it.
Well just one persons opinion and pondering.
I opine many of us feel helpless as our Country continues to stain us with the Genocide and as we must sit and watch the brutality and slaughter.
And cheer for Israel or be reported for anti-Semitism.
Your last sentence says it all.