"On the one hand—and in fairness to Trump—the debt load is something that Trump inherited."
This is from the article. Also from the article: “The reality is that Congress runs the spending and has been uniformly irresponsible over the decades.” This spending has to be approved by the president—which includes President Trump I. This debt load was also increased dramatically by President Trump 1 with his increased spending and his tax cuts which favored the top 10%. He is NOT a neutral or innocent actor (or victim) in this. He had agency in this and he CHOSE to dramatically worsen the problem........When will the dissident analysts (like our author who I otherwise respect) publicly acknowledge this?
I'm not blindly defending Trump--he is largely doing what every president since Kennedy has done. However, the prime driver of increases in spending is largely the desire of Congress to buy off voters, contributors, and special interests . Presidents--even when they want--can do very little about that. And then when presidents decide to try buying people off, they'll get no resistance. When it comes to spending there are are NO systemic checks and balances. This is all happening as predicted by de Toqueville. When you throw in the income tax and King Dollar there is no restraining force.
Trump inherited the culture of debt, deficits, and overspending. It starts with the voters. What is the overall literacy rate? A poorly educated populace, thanks to government schools, ultimately gets what it is capable of voting for. Any regime ‘educates’ to preserve the regime. Education has been changed by ‘progressives’ for more than a century to create a population that will comply with government dependency and the rule of ‘experts.’ In fact expert rule and growing dependency will lead to where we are. Defer to expert rule? Does modern monetary theory tell us that we can print money forever? This seems like an example of expert opinion versus reality. Politicians who want to spend more will state they are deferring to academic experts. What has happened with money printing/devaluation in past civilizations? Rome? One would think that ‘experts’ would be interested in what has been done before and what the results were. If they are not is it reasonable to think that voters, and therefore congress, are even aware of the concept of what has been done before and what were the results?
Agreeing with you---and when you wonder if the Members of Congress "are even aware...and what were the results?", I can only laugh, sorrowful with cynicism. Sample stellar Members inter-mixed with lawfare conniving genius creeps such as the likes of Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Rep. McIver, Alexandria O. Cortez, Dan Goldman, Jerry Nadler, et cetera, do not put in the time to learn meaning in history, nor much of anything useful beyond building self-aggrandizing relationships with their puppet masters.
The China US dispute is akin to a hot shot (China) getting too big for its britches and not respecting the Don. It’s still a family affair.
Russia on the other hand is another rival clan altogether.
Given Russia’s horrible proclivity for making awful deals with the West (Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and Minsk agreement as examples), Putin would be well to check his fingers after shaking hands with Trump.
The crux of the budget problem, the debt problem, and the deficit boils down to healthcare spending more than anything else. we take roughly $460 billion in Medicare taxes and we are spending almost $2.8 trillion in healthcare spending.
What we can no longer afford is Medicaid. We could easily save Social Security and Medicare, but we cannot continue to fund Medicaid. The states pay 15% of Medicaid in the federal government pays 85% and that 85% is coming out of general revenue. There is no funding mechanism independent for Medicaid..
The politicians refused to make any real changes on this. Theoretically, if you want to have what we have in healthcare, then we would have to increase Medicare taxes for an average of $6000 per person to pay for it all and that’s never going to happen. We cannot afford Medicaid to the detriment of the rest of the federal budget..
As to Trump and his problems with Putin, I would suggest he do something more bold .
How many you remember in 1972 when Nixon went to China in January of that year and then he went to Moscow in June of that year .
I would propose that Trump put the feelers out to make a bold trip to Moscow to meet with Putin on his own territory. If he is serious about being the Peace president,then he’s going to have to do something out of the box and that is something that might work.
In addition, maybe he needs to imitate Nixon and go to Beijing and meet with Xi directly.
Those kind of optics might just calm things down and perhaps something concrete might come of trips like that.
Let’s face it. Trump is made some serious blunders in the first 3 1/2 months in office. His biggest blunder is not having any consistency is the message he is putting out to the rest of the world. he has asinine tweets on true social are confusing things to a great degree and can be his own worst enemy. He needs to check his ego at the door if he wants to get anything done.
I like your recommendation that Trump go boldly forward with direct negotiations with the Russians, in Russia, and obviously face to face with Putin. Because serious, real diplomacy takes place as a well respected process of engagement by the parties at multiple levels of national diplomatic authority prior to the heads of state meeting one on one, Trump must proceed respectfully. The world must see that Trump demonstrates respect for Putin and for all of Russia's dire concerns of real existential threats in these times. I pray that Trump's great pride for being "number one" will strengthen his resolve to achieve true peaceful closure to the pending armageddon By Means Of His Own Commanding Shut down of those who disapprove of POTUS Trump's goal. He must shut out of his thinking all of the Neocon, Globalist, WEF financialists, Jewish Nationalist advisors, AIPAC donors, and Mossad blackmailers---and act on his most inner self's desire to bring peace to the world by STAYING COMMITTED TO HIS GOAL OF MAKING PEACE NOW.
I certainly agree re healthcare spending--it has to be addressed, but nobody is willing to do it. But we also need to rein in the NatSec spending--among much else. Instead, Trump is bragging about spending more.
I also agree with what you're saying about clearing the FP decks. I just don't think "peace" as Trump uses the word means the same thing that it means to most people. He seems to be trying to bully powerful nations and combinations of nations into acting against their interests, and I don't see much prospect for success. If he were to recognize the legit interests of others *and negotiate on that recognition* he might make some real progress. The lack of consistency leads to distrust.
I absolutely agree with cutting national security spending. We’re already over $1 trillion. That in itself is not sustainable either. One of the things that we could cut back on is a fact we have almost 900 overseas military bases. Do we need all of that? That’s one of the reasons our resources are stretch so thin and that we can’t possibly put into the field an army if it were necessary, we don’t have it and we couldn’t keep one in the field for very long if we did.
Trump for some reason is still under the illusion that we have a top-notch military fighting force available to use and we don’t. For example, to absolutely defeat or even try to defeat the Houthi not only would you need a full-blown bombing campaign going on around the clock at some point you would have to put in an army on the field and you’re probably talking about at least 250,000 people if not more. The reality is that we have relied on proxies to fight our wars since World War II. We don’t have the resources necessary. we can’t even meet our military quotas for enlistment. The only thing you could do is reinstate the draft.
Moa quotes Paul Krugman, who is usually wrong, and a partisan hack.
Businesses hate uncertainty, and Trump has increased the perceived risk of manufacturing in China. I expect a lot of reshoring will happen, it just takes time. Even when Trump leaves office, this uncertainty is not going away. And this applies to all imports. And automation is reducing the labor advantage. Automation is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Countries also hate uncertainty, so more trade will be done outside U.S. controlled financial systems.
What is missing so far is changes to Fed stuff that rewards outsourcing, both tax codes and sec interpretations. Plus the stock buyback addiction. My gut feeling is this is being delayed till after the tariff war is resolved, so not to tank the stock market. It’s an obvious area that needs to be fixed.
Trump is simultaneously with the trying to achieve fair trade, not the unicorn of free trade, making the U.S. more attractive to manufacture in. Do not underestimate the impact of the deregulation. Or what Trump just did on Federal criminalizing.
Note the Wall Street journal is a big proponent of so-called free trade, as is Krugman.
Doge is another black swan action. I’m confused on the savings. The new head should be super effective.
Trump seems to be squeezing out slowly the backstabbers and buried sleeper agents this time, which was ignored in his first administration. This is a major change. USAID is one example that was ignored in the previous administration. This time Trump seems to have control of the Intel agencies and doj/ fbi, which he did not have in his first term.
The gop majority congress seems happy to do nothing, it’s reminding me of Paul Ryan’s Congress. I expect more action after the midterms with a larger gop majority that is more maga. Tx, nc and la the incumbent gop squishes may get primaried. Plus I expect more on election cheating reform. There are hints of actions, that are a huge change from the culture of willful ignoring that has existed.
Trump is prepping the battlefield for the midterms, by continuing to pummel the Democrats and troll them. The South African refugee stunt / troll is perfect.
I expect the tariff war will be over in time for the midterms.
And deportations should help lower income legal residents jobs before the midterms. Eventually the lawfare will end that has paused this.
Interest rates I expect no changes. Inflation, because of low energy rates, is dead.
Europe is committing economic suicide with their green energy and immigration policies, and I don’t expect any changes here, much less Trump can do anything.
Gaza - I don’t see the economic impact on the U.S. Trump seems to have disengaged the perception of the U.S. partnership/ unquestioning following with Israel. Israel I wonder how long they can last with no change. The Gaza war is eating away at their society.
On the deficit, noting I don’t know the impact of doge, I expect no major changes. A slow down compared to Biden. Somehow the U.S. will keep kicking the deficit can down the street. Trump my guess is betting on fixing the U.S. economy as a way to address the deficit.
Ukraine I expect little change near term, and I don’t see the economic impact on the U.S. Eventually Russia will force an end due to boots on the ground.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. If Trump were to set a consistent, predictable and sustainable trade policy he might get more reshoring. But he hasn't done that. No business will want to bail out of China until they have some certainty of what the future holds. Speculation on automation in the future won't do that, not when China already is a world leader in that field.
Unpredictable is part of Trumps negotiating style, and it motivates the other side to agree to a deal to remove the unpredictable.
There are two types of businesses manufacturing in China. Those that can afford to move manufacturing to the U.S., and those that can’t. Covid and Trump have high lighted the risks of manufacturing in China. Some businesses will move to other countries, but China has a lot of advantages including great infrastructure, educated work force, and a business friendly government for its own manufacturers.
I’m in the wait and see what happens crowd. My gut feeling is the China trade situation will improve somewhat for the U.S.
I wonder if China will actually turn off the supply of fentanyl. The 20% of the 30% tariffs, so 2/3rds, signals this is a huge focus of Trump. Is fentanyl that significant in the U.S.?
Very good (if disheartening) analysis, IMO. Presuming the tariffs are predicated on addressing the U.S. debt problem is not chimeric. U.S. debt is in every respect real and it is spectacular. Here is a link discussing the nature and impact of it:
* America faces a four-pronged credit crunch: commercial real estate, corporate, consumer, and government debt all peaking simultaneously, risking severe market disruption.
* CRE debt maturities in 2025 threaten regional banks, with 'extend and pretend' tactics delaying inevitable losses and raising the risk of more bank failures.
* Corporate and consumer debt refinancing at higher rates, alongside rising delinquencies and slowing spending, signal mounting economic stress and potential market drag.
* U.S. government debt refinancing needs [thank you, Yellen] and deficit growth risk crowding out liquidity, raising rates, and triggering a sharp stock market downturn by late summer.
Add to that the threats from China and Japan of dumping Treasuries. The good news is that Bessent is a very smart man and he knows all of this. Trump is also a very smart (if sometimes apparently misguided) man who I believe also knows this. The question in my mind is given this knowledge is Trump's goal truly U.S. global hegemony or is it hemispheric dominance and U.S. national well being. I think and hope for the latter. I think Trump's idea is that if he can get the Greenland natural resources (or as a poorer substitute maybe Alberta/Saskatchewan oil) those resources can be collateralized to prop up the U.S. economy and support the outrageous fiscal deficits for awhile longer at least.
I fervently hope and pray Trump believes he is doing what is best for America given the constraints he is under (obligations to the political class). I would like to believe that he is a servant of the people rather than the monied interests. I also hope he knows that like Clint Eastwood said: "A man's got to know his own limitations." In this case, also a country. Time will tell.
Thanks. I agree with most of this. However, if Trump were truly doing the smart thing--seeking to make North America the basis for a power pole commensurate with current historical realities--why is he wasting so much time and resources on Russia/Europe, Israel/Arabs, China? I think I understand that disengagement from the global hegemon role may take time, but it seems he's trying to hang on instead.
You make a good point. There would/will certainly be a necessary "dance" to disengage from 75 years of foreign policy structures and institutions and all of their associated interests. You can't just say "I am walking away from everything" and then do it. It would need to be incremental and not explicit.
The second question, "trying to hang on" is more interesting. In particular, "trying to hang on to WHAT?" In the ME, that basically means hanging on to Israel and the relationship with SA and the Gulf States. Half of that is already being disengaged. The other half is being leveraged for corporate profits rather than for national security.
What does Europe have to offer us at this point? They used to be about defense against the USSR and about MIC profits. We see the European leaders attempting to appeal to that history in vain now. Are they buying more of our defense equipment? No, because they don't believe their own rhetoric and they are going bankrupt. Does Trump really think Russia will invade Germany? No. Does NATO really serve any practical purpose outside of increasing Defense sector profits? No. Dead in the water.
China is a different deal. The MIC has their hearts set on profits related to defense against them and North Koreans via Japan and the Phillipines. Trump's foreign policy team are all anti-China. But in the end can we actually challenge them in the Pacific or thwart them in defending Taiwan? No. So then Taiwan just becomes nothing more than a MIC profit center and a possible chip to play in negotiating with China economically. That is all. But can we come out and disavow defending Taiwan? Of course not. It really is all an incremental veiled dance.
There's no pain from the spending cuts or Medicate work requirements in the bill until after the 2028 election. All the tax breaks or benefits run through either 2028 or 2029 and then end.
Couldn't the Republicans maybe pass ONE bill during the time they are in control? Alas, legislative bills, like people, are not necessarily more beautiful because they are bigger. But I can understand Trump's wanting to put everything he wants into one gigantic bill, given the Republican general lethargy and potential for infighting,
You've given us raw, bare nuckle factual truth in this writing. Thank you for it.
"On the one hand—and in fairness to Trump—the debt load is something that Trump inherited."
This is from the article. Also from the article: “The reality is that Congress runs the spending and has been uniformly irresponsible over the decades.” This spending has to be approved by the president—which includes President Trump I. This debt load was also increased dramatically by President Trump 1 with his increased spending and his tax cuts which favored the top 10%. He is NOT a neutral or innocent actor (or victim) in this. He had agency in this and he CHOSE to dramatically worsen the problem........When will the dissident analysts (like our author who I otherwise respect) publicly acknowledge this?
I'm not blindly defending Trump--he is largely doing what every president since Kennedy has done. However, the prime driver of increases in spending is largely the desire of Congress to buy off voters, contributors, and special interests . Presidents--even when they want--can do very little about that. And then when presidents decide to try buying people off, they'll get no resistance. When it comes to spending there are are NO systemic checks and balances. This is all happening as predicted by de Toqueville. When you throw in the income tax and King Dollar there is no restraining force.
Trump inherited the culture of debt, deficits, and overspending. It starts with the voters. What is the overall literacy rate? A poorly educated populace, thanks to government schools, ultimately gets what it is capable of voting for. Any regime ‘educates’ to preserve the regime. Education has been changed by ‘progressives’ for more than a century to create a population that will comply with government dependency and the rule of ‘experts.’ In fact expert rule and growing dependency will lead to where we are. Defer to expert rule? Does modern monetary theory tell us that we can print money forever? This seems like an example of expert opinion versus reality. Politicians who want to spend more will state they are deferring to academic experts. What has happened with money printing/devaluation in past civilizations? Rome? One would think that ‘experts’ would be interested in what has been done before and what the results were. If they are not is it reasonable to think that voters, and therefore congress, are even aware of the concept of what has been done before and what were the results?
Agreeing with you---and when you wonder if the Members of Congress "are even aware...and what were the results?", I can only laugh, sorrowful with cynicism. Sample stellar Members inter-mixed with lawfare conniving genius creeps such as the likes of Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Rep. McIver, Alexandria O. Cortez, Dan Goldman, Jerry Nadler, et cetera, do not put in the time to learn meaning in history, nor much of anything useful beyond building self-aggrandizing relationships with their puppet masters.
The China US dispute is akin to a hot shot (China) getting too big for its britches and not respecting the Don. It’s still a family affair.
Russia on the other hand is another rival clan altogether.
Given Russia’s horrible proclivity for making awful deals with the West (Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and Minsk agreement as examples), Putin would be well to check his fingers after shaking hands with Trump.
The crux of the budget problem, the debt problem, and the deficit boils down to healthcare spending more than anything else. we take roughly $460 billion in Medicare taxes and we are spending almost $2.8 trillion in healthcare spending.
What we can no longer afford is Medicaid. We could easily save Social Security and Medicare, but we cannot continue to fund Medicaid. The states pay 15% of Medicaid in the federal government pays 85% and that 85% is coming out of general revenue. There is no funding mechanism independent for Medicaid..
The politicians refused to make any real changes on this. Theoretically, if you want to have what we have in healthcare, then we would have to increase Medicare taxes for an average of $6000 per person to pay for it all and that’s never going to happen. We cannot afford Medicaid to the detriment of the rest of the federal budget..
As to Trump and his problems with Putin, I would suggest he do something more bold .
How many you remember in 1972 when Nixon went to China in January of that year and then he went to Moscow in June of that year .
I would propose that Trump put the feelers out to make a bold trip to Moscow to meet with Putin on his own territory. If he is serious about being the Peace president,then he’s going to have to do something out of the box and that is something that might work.
In addition, maybe he needs to imitate Nixon and go to Beijing and meet with Xi directly.
Those kind of optics might just calm things down and perhaps something concrete might come of trips like that.
Let’s face it. Trump is made some serious blunders in the first 3 1/2 months in office. His biggest blunder is not having any consistency is the message he is putting out to the rest of the world. he has asinine tweets on true social are confusing things to a great degree and can be his own worst enemy. He needs to check his ego at the door if he wants to get anything done.
I like your recommendation that Trump go boldly forward with direct negotiations with the Russians, in Russia, and obviously face to face with Putin. Because serious, real diplomacy takes place as a well respected process of engagement by the parties at multiple levels of national diplomatic authority prior to the heads of state meeting one on one, Trump must proceed respectfully. The world must see that Trump demonstrates respect for Putin and for all of Russia's dire concerns of real existential threats in these times. I pray that Trump's great pride for being "number one" will strengthen his resolve to achieve true peaceful closure to the pending armageddon By Means Of His Own Commanding Shut down of those who disapprove of POTUS Trump's goal. He must shut out of his thinking all of the Neocon, Globalist, WEF financialists, Jewish Nationalist advisors, AIPAC donors, and Mossad blackmailers---and act on his most inner self's desire to bring peace to the world by STAYING COMMITTED TO HIS GOAL OF MAKING PEACE NOW.
I certainly agree re healthcare spending--it has to be addressed, but nobody is willing to do it. But we also need to rein in the NatSec spending--among much else. Instead, Trump is bragging about spending more.
I also agree with what you're saying about clearing the FP decks. I just don't think "peace" as Trump uses the word means the same thing that it means to most people. He seems to be trying to bully powerful nations and combinations of nations into acting against their interests, and I don't see much prospect for success. If he were to recognize the legit interests of others *and negotiate on that recognition* he might make some real progress. The lack of consistency leads to distrust.
I absolutely agree with cutting national security spending. We’re already over $1 trillion. That in itself is not sustainable either. One of the things that we could cut back on is a fact we have almost 900 overseas military bases. Do we need all of that? That’s one of the reasons our resources are stretch so thin and that we can’t possibly put into the field an army if it were necessary, we don’t have it and we couldn’t keep one in the field for very long if we did.
Trump for some reason is still under the illusion that we have a top-notch military fighting force available to use and we don’t. For example, to absolutely defeat or even try to defeat the Houthi not only would you need a full-blown bombing campaign going on around the clock at some point you would have to put in an army on the field and you’re probably talking about at least 250,000 people if not more. The reality is that we have relied on proxies to fight our wars since World War II. We don’t have the resources necessary. we can’t even meet our military quotas for enlistment. The only thing you could do is reinstate the draft.
Moa quotes Paul Krugman, who is usually wrong, and a partisan hack.
Businesses hate uncertainty, and Trump has increased the perceived risk of manufacturing in China. I expect a lot of reshoring will happen, it just takes time. Even when Trump leaves office, this uncertainty is not going away. And this applies to all imports. And automation is reducing the labor advantage. Automation is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Countries also hate uncertainty, so more trade will be done outside U.S. controlled financial systems.
What is missing so far is changes to Fed stuff that rewards outsourcing, both tax codes and sec interpretations. Plus the stock buyback addiction. My gut feeling is this is being delayed till after the tariff war is resolved, so not to tank the stock market. It’s an obvious area that needs to be fixed.
Trump is simultaneously with the trying to achieve fair trade, not the unicorn of free trade, making the U.S. more attractive to manufacture in. Do not underestimate the impact of the deregulation. Or what Trump just did on Federal criminalizing.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/05/a-big-deal-trumps-latest-eo-targets-regulations-that-trap-the-unwary/
Note the Wall Street journal is a big proponent of so-called free trade, as is Krugman.
Doge is another black swan action. I’m confused on the savings. The new head should be super effective.
Trump seems to be squeezing out slowly the backstabbers and buried sleeper agents this time, which was ignored in his first administration. This is a major change. USAID is one example that was ignored in the previous administration. This time Trump seems to have control of the Intel agencies and doj/ fbi, which he did not have in his first term.
The gop majority congress seems happy to do nothing, it’s reminding me of Paul Ryan’s Congress. I expect more action after the midterms with a larger gop majority that is more maga. Tx, nc and la the incumbent gop squishes may get primaried. Plus I expect more on election cheating reform. There are hints of actions, that are a huge change from the culture of willful ignoring that has existed.
Trump is prepping the battlefield for the midterms, by continuing to pummel the Democrats and troll them. The South African refugee stunt / troll is perfect.
I expect the tariff war will be over in time for the midterms.
And deportations should help lower income legal residents jobs before the midterms. Eventually the lawfare will end that has paused this.
Interest rates I expect no changes. Inflation, because of low energy rates, is dead.
Europe is committing economic suicide with their green energy and immigration policies, and I don’t expect any changes here, much less Trump can do anything.
Gaza - I don’t see the economic impact on the U.S. Trump seems to have disengaged the perception of the U.S. partnership/ unquestioning following with Israel. Israel I wonder how long they can last with no change. The Gaza war is eating away at their society.
On the deficit, noting I don’t know the impact of doge, I expect no major changes. A slow down compared to Biden. Somehow the U.S. will keep kicking the deficit can down the street. Trump my guess is betting on fixing the U.S. economy as a way to address the deficit.
Ukraine I expect little change near term, and I don’t see the economic impact on the U.S. Eventually Russia will force an end due to boots on the ground.
Thank you for providing a detailed analysis to the main analyst's analyis-very much appreciated.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. If Trump were to set a consistent, predictable and sustainable trade policy he might get more reshoring. But he hasn't done that. No business will want to bail out of China until they have some certainty of what the future holds. Speculation on automation in the future won't do that, not when China already is a world leader in that field.
Unpredictable is part of Trumps negotiating style, and it motivates the other side to agree to a deal to remove the unpredictable.
There are two types of businesses manufacturing in China. Those that can afford to move manufacturing to the U.S., and those that can’t. Covid and Trump have high lighted the risks of manufacturing in China. Some businesses will move to other countries, but China has a lot of advantages including great infrastructure, educated work force, and a business friendly government for its own manufacturers.
I’m in the wait and see what happens crowd. My gut feeling is the China trade situation will improve somewhat for the U.S.
I wonder if China will actually turn off the supply of fentanyl. The 20% of the 30% tariffs, so 2/3rds, signals this is a huge focus of Trump. Is fentanyl that significant in the U.S.?
Per WH huge costs in the trillions:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/03/the-staggering-cost-of-the-illicit-opioid-epidemic-in-the-united-states/
Very good (if disheartening) analysis, IMO. Presuming the tariffs are predicated on addressing the U.S. debt problem is not chimeric. U.S. debt is in every respect real and it is spectacular. Here is a link discussing the nature and impact of it:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4787093-credit-crunch-coming-soon (behind a paywall?):
* America faces a four-pronged credit crunch: commercial real estate, corporate, consumer, and government debt all peaking simultaneously, risking severe market disruption.
* CRE debt maturities in 2025 threaten regional banks, with 'extend and pretend' tactics delaying inevitable losses and raising the risk of more bank failures.
* Corporate and consumer debt refinancing at higher rates, alongside rising delinquencies and slowing spending, signal mounting economic stress and potential market drag.
* U.S. government debt refinancing needs [thank you, Yellen] and deficit growth risk crowding out liquidity, raising rates, and triggering a sharp stock market downturn by late summer.
Add to that the threats from China and Japan of dumping Treasuries. The good news is that Bessent is a very smart man and he knows all of this. Trump is also a very smart (if sometimes apparently misguided) man who I believe also knows this. The question in my mind is given this knowledge is Trump's goal truly U.S. global hegemony or is it hemispheric dominance and U.S. national well being. I think and hope for the latter. I think Trump's idea is that if he can get the Greenland natural resources (or as a poorer substitute maybe Alberta/Saskatchewan oil) those resources can be collateralized to prop up the U.S. economy and support the outrageous fiscal deficits for awhile longer at least.
I fervently hope and pray Trump believes he is doing what is best for America given the constraints he is under (obligations to the political class). I would like to believe that he is a servant of the people rather than the monied interests. I also hope he knows that like Clint Eastwood said: "A man's got to know his own limitations." In this case, also a country. Time will tell.
Thanks. I agree with most of this. However, if Trump were truly doing the smart thing--seeking to make North America the basis for a power pole commensurate with current historical realities--why is he wasting so much time and resources on Russia/Europe, Israel/Arabs, China? I think I understand that disengagement from the global hegemon role may take time, but it seems he's trying to hang on instead.
You make a good point. There would/will certainly be a necessary "dance" to disengage from 75 years of foreign policy structures and institutions and all of their associated interests. You can't just say "I am walking away from everything" and then do it. It would need to be incremental and not explicit.
The second question, "trying to hang on" is more interesting. In particular, "trying to hang on to WHAT?" In the ME, that basically means hanging on to Israel and the relationship with SA and the Gulf States. Half of that is already being disengaged. The other half is being leveraged for corporate profits rather than for national security.
What does Europe have to offer us at this point? They used to be about defense against the USSR and about MIC profits. We see the European leaders attempting to appeal to that history in vain now. Are they buying more of our defense equipment? No, because they don't believe their own rhetoric and they are going bankrupt. Does Trump really think Russia will invade Germany? No. Does NATO really serve any practical purpose outside of increasing Defense sector profits? No. Dead in the water.
China is a different deal. The MIC has their hearts set on profits related to defense against them and North Koreans via Japan and the Phillipines. Trump's foreign policy team are all anti-China. But in the end can we actually challenge them in the Pacific or thwart them in defending Taiwan? No. So then Taiwan just becomes nothing more than a MIC profit center and a possible chip to play in negotiating with China economically. That is all. But can we come out and disavow defending Taiwan? Of course not. It really is all an incremental veiled dance.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/15/congress/gop-plans-to-advance-megabill-in-peril-00352589
Wow! The tax bill might not even make it out of the House Committee!
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/15/perks-now-pain-later-tk-ways-trumps-megabill-pushes-tradeoffs-beyond-election-day-00348268
There's no pain from the spending cuts or Medicate work requirements in the bill until after the 2028 election. All the tax breaks or benefits run through either 2028 or 2029 and then end.
It doesn't look like a beautiful bill to me.
Couldn't the Republicans maybe pass ONE bill during the time they are in control? Alas, legislative bills, like people, are not necessarily more beautiful because they are bigger. But I can understand Trump's wanting to put everything he wants into one gigantic bill, given the Republican general lethargy and potential for infighting,
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-ukraine-talks-wrap-under-2-hours-nothing-meaningful-end-war