NATO—mostly meaning US—direct involvement in the war on Russia is reaching disturbing levels. Larry Johnson had a Friday Update that should give you a fright: UKRAINE CROSSES A MAJOR RED LINE First of all, I recommend that you read the entire post. There’s a lot of information about the ATACMS missile system—it comes in the second half of the post. I’ll quote the really disturbing part. Note that Larry is working off Simplicius, which will be relevant later:
The missile attack of five assumes 5 launch vehicles with a range of approximately 106 miles. These vehicles must have been brought very close to the line of contact. I assume Russia will find their staging location and zap them soon.
In the discussion below, the question (implicitly) is asked, When will the West stop? When will the war end?
Western apologists would have us believe that this is Putin's war of aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine. Logically, then, Ukraine will not concede until Russia is expelled. The West supports Ukraine. Thus, NATO will escalate.
Of course, this is not a war of Russian aggression. This is a US/NATO war against Russia. Russia will not (cannot) withdraw until its security concerns are addressed. This can only happen with a total defeat of Ukraine.
Accordingly, the war cannot end anytime soon. Thus, neither Biden nor Trump will run on ending the war. It will be the dog who didn't bark.
Maybe the Western Elites will change. But they sure have a hell of a way of showing it. Mark, you follow this situation as competently as anyone I have seen. Do you see anyone dialing down in the past three years or three months? I do not. Maybe the outcome of this new ill-advised attack and the Russians doing Nuke drills on the Ukrainian boarders will have an effect to change the current Weatern Elites' pattern of behavior. So we will see. But from what I have seen: if past behavior of the West is a predictor of future actions, the end state will probably be one of two outcomes.
One:
the West will have an epiphany of how short-sighted their past actions have been and now be full of fear of their past actions (because they will realize how close they are to destruction) and change their behavior and policies.
US may strike Russian positions in Ukraine if nuclear weapons are used – Radosław Sikorski
"The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them."
Me thinkest thou (the West) dost protest too much!
Let’s never forget which nation is the only one that has used nukes in wartime.
Putin will use a nuke if he can’t conventionally repel an attack from the west into Russia. The Russians will never permit western soldiers on Russian soil again. Otherwise Russia is content to grind down the Ukrainians with their artillery.
Targeting and conduct of operations are divided into three categories.: Tactical, Operational and Strategic. The Radar attack was strategic. Strategic, and more than that, Strategically Sensitive, the highest tier of threat. So you have to ask yourself. What is the difference from this to attacking any other strategic asset: such as an ICBM site, Nuke submarine pen or a nuclear Ammunition Storage Depot? This is what will be discussed and thrown around on Russian TV and with policy makers. It all depends how they want to take it. Will they allow the nuclear deterrent system to be a fair target? Do they perceive a direct threat to the Russian nuclear deterrent and therefore the Motherland itself?
This is what will be weighed in the balance.
This whole Nato/ Ukie vs Russia war just gets worse every time you look at it. In the West, "none of the Main Players are dialing back" and the Russians just keep having to react to the new situation in a stronger manner.
You see how this goes...... if it does not stop, with the current trend, it will end badly. Very Badly.
I'm listening to a very interesting and recent interview with Doug Macgregor that I'll be doing a write-up on. In it he says he believes the US Deep State is backing off from escalation. But based on what you and others are saying on this, it doesn't really look that way.
I was irritated as well by Simp's rather exaggerated take on Russia's missile defence deficiencies. However, yes, this is definitely another red line vanishing into the rear distance. I'm sure the Russians will take plenty of deep breaths and refill the Samovar many times before making a decision on what action to take, but I've no doubt that they are going to go in big. Either taking out drones over the Black Sea and other ISR assets, or making an even greater effort to take out "mercenaries" operating these systems in Ukraine. We are led by maniacs.
LJ - "At a minimum, Russia is likely to intensify efforts to locate and destroy ATACM launchers and missile supplies. This means that more NATO troops will likely die in the coming weeks."
I don't think ANYONE (other than a biased idiot) can argue with the logic of this and very hopefully this is the extent of it. But I will not hold my breath. Zelensky and the West seem determined to provoke a full scale war between Russia and NATO prior to the U.S. elections, and are willing to do whatever that takes.
On a more positive note: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-weapons-accuracy-drops-10-ukraine-due-jamming
The missile attack of five assumes 5 launch vehicles with a range of approximately 106 miles. These vehicles must have been brought very close to the line of contact. I assume Russia will find their staging location and zap them soon.
In the discussion below, the question (implicitly) is asked, When will the West stop? When will the war end?
Western apologists would have us believe that this is Putin's war of aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine. Logically, then, Ukraine will not concede until Russia is expelled. The West supports Ukraine. Thus, NATO will escalate.
Of course, this is not a war of Russian aggression. This is a US/NATO war against Russia. Russia will not (cannot) withdraw until its security concerns are addressed. This can only happen with a total defeat of Ukraine.
Accordingly, the war cannot end anytime soon. Thus, neither Biden nor Trump will run on ending the war. It will be the dog who didn't bark.
Strap in.
“This is a US/NATO war against Russia” and always has been, Ukraine just the willing proxy du jour.
Thank you for this important update.
https://rickycook21.substack.com/publish/home
From what I understand from yourself, Will and Simplicius, this radar installation is part of the "first strike warning and defense" system of Russia.
Degrading this system is very ominous for everyone. M.A.D. level ominous.
Maybe the Western Elites will change. But they sure have a hell of a way of showing it. Mark, you follow this situation as competently as anyone I have seen. Do you see anyone dialing down in the past three years or three months? I do not. Maybe the outcome of this new ill-advised attack and the Russians doing Nuke drills on the Ukrainian boarders will have an effect to change the current Weatern Elites' pattern of behavior. So we will see. But from what I have seen: if past behavior of the West is a predictor of future actions, the end state will probably be one of two outcomes.
One:
the West will have an epiphany of how short-sighted their past actions have been and now be full of fear of their past actions (because they will realize how close they are to destruction) and change their behavior and policies.
OR
Two:
They will push the Russians to war.
Long interesting tweet thread
https://x.com/rybar_force/status/1794430065410744358

Rybar Force
@rybar_force

On the prospects of a Ukrainian attack on Russia's nuclear infrastructure
NEXTA @nexta_tv
US may strike Russian positions in Ukraine if nuclear weapons are used – Radosław Sikorski
"The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/21/world/europe/russia-tactical-nuclear-exercise.html
Me thinkest thou (the West) dost protest too much!
Let’s never forget which nation is the only one that has used nukes in wartime.
Putin will use a nuke if he can’t conventionally repel an attack from the west into Russia. The Russians will never permit western soldiers on Russian soil again. Otherwise Russia is content to grind down the Ukrainians with their artillery.
Yes. This.
Targeting and conduct of operations are divided into three categories.: Tactical, Operational and Strategic. The Radar attack was strategic. Strategic, and more than that, Strategically Sensitive, the highest tier of threat. So you have to ask yourself. What is the difference from this to attacking any other strategic asset: such as an ICBM site, Nuke submarine pen or a nuclear Ammunition Storage Depot? This is what will be discussed and thrown around on Russian TV and with policy makers. It all depends how they want to take it. Will they allow the nuclear deterrent system to be a fair target? Do they perceive a direct threat to the Russian nuclear deterrent and therefore the Motherland itself?
This is what will be weighed in the balance.
This whole Nato/ Ukie vs Russia war just gets worse every time you look at it. In the West, "none of the Main Players are dialing back" and the Russians just keep having to react to the new situation in a stronger manner.
You see how this goes...... if it does not stop, with the current trend, it will end badly. Very Badly.
I'm listening to a very interesting and recent interview with Doug Macgregor that I'll be doing a write-up on. In it he says he believes the US Deep State is backing off from escalation. But based on what you and others are saying on this, it doesn't really look that way.
I was irritated as well by Simp's rather exaggerated take on Russia's missile defence deficiencies. However, yes, this is definitely another red line vanishing into the rear distance. I'm sure the Russians will take plenty of deep breaths and refill the Samovar many times before making a decision on what action to take, but I've no doubt that they are going to go in big. Either taking out drones over the Black Sea and other ISR assets, or making an even greater effort to take out "mercenaries" operating these systems in Ukraine. We are led by maniacs.
LJ - "At a minimum, Russia is likely to intensify efforts to locate and destroy ATACM launchers and missile supplies. This means that more NATO troops will likely die in the coming weeks."
I don't think ANYONE (other than a biased idiot) can argue with the logic of this and very hopefully this is the extent of it. But I will not hold my breath. Zelensky and the West seem determined to provoke a full scale war between Russia and NATO prior to the U.S. elections, and are willing to do whatever that takes.
Yep. When all else fails, they take you to war.