Hamas In The Driver's Seat; US Considering Withdrawal From Syria
Over the weekend Israel offered Hamas a two month ceasefire. This came basically out of the blue. What was driving this unexpected offer that seemed to fly in the face of all of Netanyahu’s public statements of intent? Maybe this—h/t Megatron. The Israeli general was speaking after the heavy casualties just the other day in an explosion in a storage facility:
Israeli Chief of Staff:
"We are still fighting, the battle will be long, and we will need reserve forces again.
We will continue to fight Hamas with great determination for our right to live in safety.
Our soldiers fell in battle during a defensive operation in the area separating Israeli towns and Gaza.
The operation was aimed at creating security conditions for the residents of the Gaza envelope area to return to their homes safely.
We will conduct an in-depth investigation and draw lessons so that such an incident will not be repeated."
Two things are notable here. First, the war has no end in sight, and those reserves that were withdrawn? They’ll be coming back. In other words, we’ve killed lots of non-combatants, the genocide is going great, but it’s the actual combatants that we can’t seem to deal with. Reserves coming back and the war having no end in sight also means economic chaos ahead, and the US—for all its supplies of munitions and strikes on the Houthis—isn’t getting the job done:
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
Absolutely unreal. The US is begging China to bail them out of the mess they put themselves in with Yemen.
Beijing's response (as per the article): that "the Red Sea tension is a 'spillover' from the Gaza conflict, which should be ended as soon as possible". Damn right!
China to US: Stop digging! Good advice, but unavailing. Orders is orders, and Netanyahu gives the orders to the US.
The Gaza conflict which the US could end tomorrow if it finally dared to use the considerable leverage it has with Israel. But no... crazily enough they'd rather go through the humiliation of begging their main geopolitical rival to bail them out rather than rein in Israel. Which frankly beggars belief.
Src: https://ft.com/content/bba68661-6c9b-41b5-ab74-d573b3a27c54…
8:51 AM · Jan 24, 2024
The second takeaway is that the battle took place right near the border of Gaza and Israel. That means that maps showing Israel “occupying” large areas of Gaza aren’t giving the real picture on the ground. No place in Gaza is secure for Israel.
So, at a minimum, the guess is that Israel needs a breather—badly. But a breather isn’t enough, and so they also dangled an offer to end the genocidal war.
But Hamas was in no mood to offer that breather—they rejected the ceasefire proposal. Will Schryver writes:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
Hamas is effectively dictating terms of any ceasefire.
That tells you all you need to know about how this war has become a disastrous debacle for the Israelis.
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Zlatti71 @djuric_zlatko
Reuters: Israel and Hamas are in 'intensive talks' over month-long truce
Earlier it became known that the Palestinian group refused a two-month truce on Tel Aviv’s terms. The agency writes that now the parties, through the mediation of Qatar, Egypt and the United States, are trying to agree on at least a month-long ceasefire.
Israel is reportedly offering to end the conflict completely if senior Hamas leaders leave Gaza. However, the group refuses to fulfill this condition. Hamas also does not want to hand over all the hostages to Tel Aviv while the IDF continues to fight.
At the same time, the parties generally agree to a partial exchange of hostages. Under what conditions and when it will happen is still unclear.
12:01 AM · Jan 24, 2024
What’s going on elsewhere while the war without end in Gaza continues? Well, to the north Hezbollah continues to prepare for the war that Israel has been threatening. How has Hezbollah been preparing? By degrading the Israeli ISR infrastructure all along the border. This has been ongoing since basically October 7. The big target here is the supremely important Israeli air traffic control and surveillance base atop Mount Meron. The base has been attacked twice, most recently yesterday. I can’t confirm this claim of total destruction, but Israel is admitting damage:
BREAKING:
Hezbollah totally destroyed the Meron Air Control center in the north of Israel The IOF admits damage was inflicted to the Meron Air Control center due to Hezbollah's rocket attack. The IOF added that the base has a backup system. But reports from the field say that the center is totally destroyed. Because of this, the flights of the Israeli army in the region have been drastically reduced. http://t.me/megatron_ron
This photo from Wikipedia illustrates how the base dominates the entire border area. If you enlarge the photo you can just make out all the antennas and towers, toward the left:
You have to wonder whether this attack is connected in some way with the Russian announcement that they will be conducting combat patrols along the Golan Heights, not far away.
The point is, with these developments in the north, Israel cannot afford to commit so much of their military forces to Gaza much longer. Here’s how Megatron explains this, in light of what we presented above—it bears repeating:
Walla Hebrew website:
"Soldiers confirm that fighting is still ongoing in areas close to the fence on the Gaza Strip border on a daily basis, even though our public believes that there are no longer Palestinian fighters in the area."
Megatron: Guerrilla war in Gaza is still raging on all sides, without clearly defined territories of control. The Israeli army, despite heavy losses, cannot establish firm control because of the Hamas tunnels. It is drastically withdrawn and the battalions are deployed to the northern border in the fighting with Hezbollah.
As of today Israel is admitting that it can’t destroy the Hamas tunnels. It’s a disaster, the lastest in a string of defeats stretching back to 1982.
So now Incans are entitled to Palestinian land, too? Someone make this make sense.
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Marc Zell @GOPIsrael
Update: One of the soldiers killed yesterday, Yuval Lopez, was from a family of Incan native Peruvians whose entire community converted to Judaism en masse over 30 years ago, emigrated to Israel and settled in my former home of Alon Shevut in Gush Etzion (Judea). When they…
Now for what could be huge geopolitical news. The US is considering withdrawing from Syria—under pressure, obviously. That would mean a FULL withdrawal (see below). The next question is, will the the US also end up withdrawing from Iraq? This is an indication of how over stretched and stressed our miltiary is for the demands that the Neocons want to make on it. Here’s the headline from Neocon Foreign Policy:
America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria—and Create a Disaster
FP claims that this will lead to a resurgence of ISIS. My bet is that Syria and its Russian ally will make short work of ISIS. Here’s Megatron’s take, with a substantial quote from the FP article:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
The US is planning to withdraw its forces from Syria - Foreign Policy
The US has been under constant attack in Syria for months and American troops are very vulnerable there because, unlike Iraq, the US has no ties with the central government in Syria.
“Since brutal attack against Israel on Oct. 7 and the resulting Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip, tensions and hostilities across the Middle East have reached fever pitch. And with such a complex regional crisis playing out, it should not come as a surprise that the Biden administration is reconsidering its military priorities in the region.
It should be cause for significant concern, however, that this could involve a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary.
Active internal discussions are now underway to determine how and when a withdrawal may take place.” - the media wrote.
http://t.me/megatron_ron
11:35 AM · Jan 24, 2024
Gotta luv that line about “a mission that it perceives as unnecessary.” Our invasion of Syria was part of the Neocon grand plan to enable a Greater Israel. Plain and simple. Perceiving that as now “unnecessary” is the purest CYA. It is a humiliating defeat for the American Empire and a sign of more to come. Their enabling of the destruction of milennia old Middle Eastern Christian communities will come to an end.
Aaron Maté @aaronjmate
Neocon @Charles_Lister having a meltdown at the thought of US troops leaving Syria and no longer stealing its oil and wheat. I don't think he has to worry. Trump's subordinates ignored his orders to withdraw from Syria, and Biden shares their commitment to occupation & plunder.
Hamas is taking a page out of the Russians' playbook: "Actually, it's we, not you, who are going to dictate how this ends." As for the tunnels, the photos show something not unlike the London Underground metro system. How the heck did Mossad, supposedly the best intelligence people on the Planet, miss this? As for Syrian, if the GAE leaves there, they'll be gone from Iraq too.