Global War: It All Connects, But Is It A Setup?

From the outset we’ve been referring to the American war on Russia as a Global War, or World War 3. That much has been obvious because the Neocon run American Empire has made no secret that the war on Russia was a relatively minor step, a prelude to the main war: the war on China. Along the way, of course, other enemies, as identified by the Neocons, would also be subdued. Iran has certainly been on that list.

I’ve always believed that the logic behind this plan ran like this: An American assault on China would need to involve US forces directly. There really isn’t a proxy available to wear China down—Japan or South Korea are too intelligent to fall for that role. And yet a direct US attack on China, while it would be winnable (IMO) as an isolated event, would come at great cost and would risk the high probability of drawing Russia in. On the other hand, China would be unlikely to to intervene militarily on Russia’s side in a proxy run war and, with Russia quickly crushed, China would be vulnerable to the collective West led by the American Empire. After that, we’d be looking at mopping up around the world as needed.

Well, it didn’t quite work out that way. Like all Neocon fantasies, this one was based on desired facts, not real facts. Russia hasn’t been crushed. Worse, all Putin’s illusions about coming to terms with the West have been laid to rest—as he recently admitted. Even worse, the rest of the world outside the collective West has been made fully aware that the only alternative to a future of neocolonial subjugation to the collective West lies in banding together under the overall strategic leadership of Russia. That’s a loose coordination, as opposed to the iron fisted American domination of its vassals in Europe, but its’ a coordination based on real interests compounded by the existential threat from the West. Only Neocon smarty pants hubris could have brought about this dual debacle: an immensely strengthened Russia (and China) with a severely degraded West, and a circling of the wagons of the most resource rich areas of the world under Russian tutelage.

I’ve been wrestling with the news today, trying to fit into the global war framework. Up to the point of October the global war was confined—in a true kinetic sense—to Ukraine. The other fronts in the global war were playing out economically and financially—no less intense, just not as visible to the average man on the street. The Hamas raid into Israel from Gaza, followed by the continuing Israeli genocidal assault on Palestinians, has brought the kinetic war to the forefront, complete with widespread protests and political conflict in the West and the rushed deployment of powerful US carrier battle groups. US bases are under increasing direct, i.e. kinetic, pressure, and the US is feeling helpless to respond adequately. A few attempts were made with air strikes, but made little impact. The response has largely degenerated into bluster.

Now the Middle East front has gone global with the Houthi blockade of Western shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Russian, Iranian, and Chinese shipping is allowed. The impact on not only Israel but the entire West are likely to be enormous, as shipping costs skyrocketing due to the need to reroute all the way around Africa. The American response was initial saber rattling and redeployment of carrier battle groups, but the Houthis remained unimpressed. The result is that the US response has again degenerated into transparently inadequate bluster.

Consider these tweets:

Patrick Henningsen @21WIRE

Houthi diplomacy works.

6:58 AM · Dec 21, 2023

It seems unilateral actions are good for the gander as well as the goose.

Iran Observer @IranObserver0

BREAKING Coordination between Iran, China and Russia is booming Ansarallah have been tremendously precise in not hitting non-western oil tankers says data firm Kpler. According to MarineTraffic, Iranian and Russian oil as well as Chinese cargo ships and non-Western vessels in the Red Sea have increased since the Houthis began targeting Israel-linked vessels. The Chinese navy even ignored a distress call from a ship linked to Israel.

9:32 AM · Dec 21, 2023

Big win for the BRICS.

Iran Observer @IranObserver0

BREAKING The US has backed down from plans to attack the Houthis after threats of all-out war by 2 million troops of the Yemeni Ansarullah group. According to the Associated Press (AP), military ships from the US-led alliance will be positioned to provide air defence umbrellas to as many ships as possible at any given time. Basically, they will fire missiles worth $2 million to intercept a $2,000 Yemeni drone.

6:03 AM · Dec 21, 2023

The Houthis win and, not at all coincidentally, so do Russia, China, and Iran. Well played Neocons! “air defence umbrellas to as many ships as possible” will absolutely not restore normal shipping through Suez. Degrading US supplies of air defense missiles on the cheap—missiles that cannot be manufactured on a timely basis as supplies drop—is a win/win for many interested parties in the region.

What’s the state of the war? Three days ago a prime Neocon organ featured this:

Wall Street Journal observer calls Putin geopolitical winner of the year

NEW YORK, December 20. /TASS/. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyst Gerard Baker called Russian President Vladimir Putin "the geopolitical winner of the year."

He explained his choice by saying that "Kiev’s much-vaunted counteroffensive has stalled; Mr. Putin’s economy has withstood Western sanctions; European resolve is fading; American support is fracturing."

And today:

U.S. Naval Deterrence Is Going, Going, Maybe Even Gone

Recently the news broke that the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney had fended off several missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea. While Biden administration officials tried to frame the battle, for a battle it surely was, as the Carney’s defending nearby merchant ships, it seems clear that Iranian-supplied Houthis were targeting the Carney directly as well as the commercial ships it was accompanying.

This was only one of several recent assaults on American naval assets in the region. They have happened despite the presence of the Ford carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and the Eisenhower strike group in the Gulf of Aden—a conventional level of naval deterrence that should have reduced aggressive activities by U.S. enemies. Instead, Iran attacked American ships and allies.

The non-West is clearly pressuring the US, with the goal being to force the US out of the entire region. Leaving carrier battle groups floating around the seas without any clear purpose is asking for more probing attacks—and possibly a disaster. The joint US/Israeli genocide in Palestine only serves to isolate the US further in the region—but increasingly news of what’s going on is filtering through to Western audiences. The folly of unconditional support for Israel by Neocon led America is becoming clear and is coming home to roost. As Alexander Mercouris stated today with regard to Israeli actions, What we’re seeing are extreme levels of violence being exerted with no rational likelihood of achieving a reasonable goal. The US walked into this, and is faced with the prospect of having no exit. The Neocons’ Israeli masters are flatly refusing to take hints and suggestions about ending the genocide. Who in America will summon the gumption to defy the Israel Lobby? They have the examples from both the UK (Jeremy Corbyn, Ben Wallace) as well as here in the US of the way the Israel Lobby is able to simply cancel public figures with the anti-semitism card.

All this is happening with an election year upon us. The Zhou regime is already in a fix, desperate to find a way to back out of Ukraine without incurring the wrath of an American public that has neither forgotten nor forgiven the debacle of the Afghan bugout. And now they’re faced with a Middle East no-win situation with multiple possibilities for disaster.

This afternoon Tom Luongo published a new article in which he suggests that all this was a setup:

No One Has Really Grokked How Big The Suez/Houthi Gambit Is

To greatly simplify, the idea is that all sides had an incentive to allow October 7 to happen. They all knew it was coming: on one side US/UK/Israel, on the other Russia/China/Iran. Each side thought they could win, and the real stakes had to do with Egypt’s unsustainable debt burden. BRICS want Egypt to renounce its debt, while the West needs to keep Egypt from taking the path of renunciation. Solution? Israel offers Egypt debt forgiveness in exchange for taking 2 million Palestinians. But October 7 turned out to be a Russia/China/Iran trap, which the US walked right into by making its unconditional commitment to Israeli genocide and then inserting carrier battle groups without any really clear mission beyond a vague idea of intimidation as deterrence. That hasn’t worked and is less likely to work with every passing day.

There are certain aspects of the article that I strongly disagree with, but won’t go into here. Overall, while there is real explanatory power, my impression is that the US walked into this without prior planning. Rather than typical Neocon strategery backfiring, I tend toward the view that there was no strategery here at all—not by the Neocons. They were preoccupied with Russia and, as Jake Sullivan stated just before the event, thought that everything in the Middle East was hunky dory.

Read the article and make your own minds up. Luongo makes some important points that help in understanding—grokking—what’s developing and why. For example:

• US Yield Curve blowing out on the long end, giving Yellen no good options for funding the current budget deficit or for rolling over existing debt, much of which is due in 2024.

• The momentum for movement away from the dollar.

Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) reposted

Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_

BREAKING NEWS

THE FIRST-EVER CROSS-BORDER SETTLEMENT FOR PRECIOUS METALS USING THE DIGITAL YUAN CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY WAS RECORDED TODAY

You don't say?

• The way the Houthi move works to support Saudi oil prices, which the US is trying to force down.

• The way in which global maritime shipping routes are actually as subject to sabotage as are pipelines—except this time the maritime choke points are being operated like spigots, rather than being totally blocked.

Lastly, I can’t recommend highly enough this stimulating discussion among John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris, and Glenn Diesen:

They’re talking about endgames, but it looks like America is caught in a game that could continue for some time. The Russians, they all agree, are in the catbird seat, as Putin’s buoyant mood in public shows. Putin has every incentive to use this global war to inflict maximum political damage on those who started it—the Neocons.