Global War 1 Roundup

“World War” seems too 20th century, too pas​sé, to adequately describe what we seem to be seeing, so I’m going to go with Global War for the time being—GW1. And counting? I dunno. The first could be the last.

Anyway.

This poll from Canada seemed rather revealing. How much of the collective West would poll differently?

Patrick Henningsen

@21WIRE

Amazing poll

“How Should Canada Respond to the Ukraine Invasion: Vaccinated via Unvaccinated”…

3:53 PM · May 28, 2023

This may not seem relevant to GW1, but it is—it turns out that so far This Time Isn’t Different Either:

The Dirty Little Secret About the Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal No One Has Addressed Yet

So will Donald Trump call out McCarthy for a deal that looks like no spending cuts are happening after saying on CNN just a couple of days ago that unless spending cuts were part of the deal, McCarthy should allow the Janet Yellen deadline to pass?

Will Chip Roy who was masterful in negotiating on behalf of some Freedom Caucus members before green-lighting a vote for McCarthy for Speaker decide that this is the straw that broke the camel’s back? Will he vote for this deal or vote to vacate the chair?

If Trump gives his blessing to this deal, what will all the Trump supporters across the fruited plain do after calling for McCarthy’s head?

This is all the drama that Washington D.C. loves and it is part of why I feel that America is about out of gas and wrote this right here. Op-Ed: How Much Gas Does America Have Left in Her Tank?

I truly hope I’m wrong but I don’t think I am and these games that are being played in the nation’s Capitol are one of the reasons why.

In geopolitics, Erdogan’s re-election is a big deal. Turkey is the chokepoint for the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the stretch of land from Teheran across Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Turkey also sits astride major pipelines to the EU. Prying Turkey away from its increasingly close ties to Russia, under Erdogan, would have been a big deal. To that end, the collective West pulled out as many stops as it could to defeat Erdogan, and failed. It’s important to understand that what forced Erdogan into a runoff by the narrowest of margins was the fact that an ultra nationalist party got 5% of the vote. They threw their support to Erdogan, of course, in the runoff. So, this was a solid win, overall, which was won by Erdogan taking an anti-West stance. Once again, following the CIA’s attempted 2016 coup in Turkey, Erdogan has defeated the West.

Is there an even bigger context that this plays into? Possibly so.

Recently we noted that all of the Central Asian countries—Turkic all—showed up in Moscow for Russia’s big Victory Day celebration. The symbolism of support was strong and the fact that Turkmenistan—which has formerly had somewhat cool relations with Russia—was also present suggested a fairly solid pro-Russian bloc between Russia and Iran, leading to the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, as well as east to China. That covers all the major new trade routes linking Eurasia, with Turkey occupying a critical place. This map will illustrate Turkey’s ties to Turkic Central Asia, which are culturally strong:

The West has been assiduously attempting to complicate Russia’s—and China’s—geopolitical strategy across this crucial stretch of the Asian heartland. The re-election of Erdogan, without suggesting that Erdogan is beholden to Putin, helps to stabilize the region in the Eurasian rather than a Western direction—that can only be a significant plus for Russia.

Another interesting development, coinciding with the elections in Turkey, is the difficulty NATO is having in pushing through new EU sanctions against Russia. As expected, Hungary refused to go along. As was NOT expected, as best I can tell, Greece joined Hungary. I’m not sure what to make of this, although it is certainly a sign of the growing fractures within the West. It has been generally considered that, while Greek public opinion opposes involvement in the war, the government is basically under the US’s thumb as a NATO member. However, like other Southeast European countries—from Budapest to Istanbul—Greece is reliant on Russian energy. There has been a strong Western push for Greece to reduce that reliance and serve as an energy conduit from the Middle East to the EU. But all that dynamic is in a state of flux, with the shift of the Muslim world toward Russia. It’s all something to keep in mind.

In the war itself there have been some interesting developments. Russia has been pounding Ukraine for the past several days, targeting military and infrastructure installations, including in Western Ukraine:

Theresa

@tretter50001

In the Lviv region, after night strikes, overcrowding of military hospitals is recorded.

According to leaked information, several locations with Ukraine and transshipment bases with foreign weapons were hit. A lot of warriors in the hundreds.

8:35 AM · May 29, 2023

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --

@GeromanAT

A lot of Ukrainian soldiers were transported into hospitals in the Western parts of Ukraine...

RF targeted not only weapons dumps but also troop concentrations over there...

8:41 AM · May 29, 2023

There’s some more specific information about these strikes. It seems that the Ukrainians had modified some Su-24s that had previously been used for reconnaissance so that they could be used as platforms for launching Brit Storm Shadow missiles:

Theresa

@tretter50001

A large military facility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Khmelnytsky region was destroyed by a night missile strike.

The Ukrainian side reports the destruction of five aircraft.

9:19 AM · May 29, 2023

Apparently, the blow could have been delivered at the airfield in Starokonstantinov, where the 7th tactical aviation brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is based.

The pilots of this formation use Su-24M and Su-24MR bombers adapted for launching Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Earlier, the Military Chronicle analyzed in detail how the strike on the arms depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Khmelnytsky is connected with the announced offensive of the Ukrainian army.

Losing the launch platforms is bad enough for Ukraine, but apparently part of the missile stockpile was also destroyed:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Reports coming in this morning (from Ukrainian sources) that Russian missile strikes took out FIVE of the Ukrainian Su-24s specially modified to carry Storm Shadow missiles, along with a stockpile of the missiles themselves.

So much for the latest wunderwaffe.

10:11 AM · May 29, 2023

You can read more about this at MoA: The Reconnaissance Strike Complex.

There is this intriguing post, which I haven’t seen elsewhere:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Massive missile strike on Kiev overnight and into the morning.

Apparently the remaining Patriot battery was hit. Patriot PAC-3 missiles fell in various places around the city.

Won't be long now before US allies cancel their orders for additional Patriot systems.

10:15 AM · May 29, 2023

All of this goes to strongly indicate that the balance of power in this conflict is decisively on Russia’s side. Nevertheless, NATO continues its saber rattling. The US has recently been flying B-1 strategic bombers at Russian territory in the Baltic region, which flights have been intercepted by Russian fighters. These developments have led at least some observers to suggest that the Neocons, increasingly backed into a corner by Russia’s growing strength both in Ukraine as well as on the world stage more generally, my strike out irrationally. A Czech general has spoken out in that regard:

Victor vicktop55

@vicktop55

This is a very revealing confession, which indirectly may indicate NATO's plans to send troops to Ukraine and / or transfer fighter jets with the ability to use nuclear weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Army Karel Rzehka admitted the possibility of war between NATO and Russia He considers this the worst scenario.

"A war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, which is the worst-case scenario for us, is possible," Rzehka said.

The head of the Czech General Staff also added that his country takes into account the experience of Russia's military operations in Ukraine to strengthen national security and overcome dependence on Russian energy supplies.

http://t.me/vicktop55/15357

8:33 AM · May 29, 2023

I have expressed doubt about such speculation in the past. I still don’t see how this could possibly work. While I’m no expert in such matters, my suspicion is that a surprise attack on Russia would be extremely difficult to pull off in the face of Russia’s impressive ISR and AD capabilities. The Russian response, via hypersonic missiles, might well reach Western targets before any Western strike could arrive in Russian air space. Nevertheless, a commenter whose previous analysis I do respect is expressing unease—but nothing definite. His unease is based on the notion I expressed above that the Neocons are finding themselves backed into a corner, with all avenues for further attacks on Russia being shut down, leading to a NOW OR NEVER mentality:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Now or Never I increasingly suspect Ukraine's NATO overlords have some sort of surprise card "up their sleeves" that they are going to play in conjunction with the long-promised spring/summer "offensive". What will it be? Hard to predict. But whatever it is, I suspect it will entail NATO personnel (sheep-dipped?) operating NATO equipment (whose presence on the battlefield has likely been kept secret, and may therefore be unexpected), and will constitute a significant escalation of direct US/NATO intervention in this war. Why will they run the risk of a major escalation? Because the US/NATO recognize that, otherwise, there is not an ice-cube's chance in hell of the AFU realizing any meaningful measure of battlefield success. Simply put, it's now or never.

6:50 PM · May 28, 2023

Alek J. Hidell

@alekjhidelll

What if it's the Russians that have a surprise card "up their sleeves"? The Russians have deliberately been extremely constrained in the use of offensive force. For example, has been mass producing hypersonic missiles since 2018. They have only used a handful of Kinzal. Yet..

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

All I know is that my "spidey sense" has been tingling for a few days now. But I struggle to imagine how reckless the masters of empire might be in a futile attempt to snatch victory from the jaws of an otherwise inevitable defeat.

I remain skeptical. “Secret” NATO equipment in Ukraine? Somehow escaping the notice of Russian intelligence—both ELINT and HUMINT as well as satellite surveillance? Schryver doesn’t mention this, but other commentators have suggested that a NATO attack could come in conjunction with a massive NATO airborne exercise this summer. Yet, the Russian military will certainly be on high alert during that exercise. In fact we know that Russian AD forces have been moved into Belarus and the Baltic and Arctic regions. Further, Western media seems increasingly resigned, guardedly, to Russian victory on the battlefield. That’s the best I can offer. I’m not a believer in a “spidey sense”. Intuition is one thing, but we need to see more verifiable intel.