Glimpses Of An Endgame In Ukraine

I borrowed that title from an article by M. K. Bhadrakumar—more from him later. The point is that there’s an almost palpable sense that the conflict in Ukraine is moving inexorably towards an endgame. That doesn’t mean this week or this month. It may not happen until next year, but since Vilnius the signs keep accumulating.

I was listening to Alexander Mercouris yesterday. According to him the effort being advanced by the West—meaning, the US—is to convince Russia that nobody can win this war so let’s all just call it quits. Ha ha! Nice try! Russia is showing no signs at all of being willing to stop—short of victory as they have consistently defined it.

There are several good reasons for believing that this “frozen conflict” endgame won’t work.

First, while Russian casualties have been only a fraction of those suffered by Ukraine, that doesn’t mean that Russian losses have been negligible. In my belief Russia will not sell the lives of its soldiers short, will not sell short their sacrifices for territories that Russia considers legitimately Russian.

Second, Russia doesn't recognize Ukraine's Kiev regime as a legitimate government. Russian spokesmen now consistently refer to the “Kiev regime”. Most recently President Putin referred to Kiev regime officials as “traitors.” These are not people that Russia is likely willing to negotiate with, for the simple reason stated by MKB in his introduction:

Glimpses Of An Endgame In Ukraine

The problem with the war in Ukraine is that it has been all smoke and mirrors. The Russian objectives of “demilitarisation” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine wore a surreal look. The western narrative that the war is between Russia and Ukraine, where central issue is the Westphalian principle of national sovereignty, wore thin progressively leaving a void.

There is a realisation today that the war is actually between Russia and NATO and that Ukraine had ceased to be a sovereign country since 2014 when the CIA and sister western agencies — Germany, the UK, France, Sweden, etc.— installed a puppet regime in Kiev.

The fog of war is lifting and the battle lines are becoming visible. At an authoritative level, a candid discussion is beginning as regards the endgame.

The candid discussions don’t include Zelensky. He gave that opportunity when he backed out of the deal at Istanbul.

Finally, Russia recognizes that the enmity of the West isn't going away. Russia will surely want more than words and agreements—which it knows will be worthless because America doesn’t keep its word. America isn’t “agreement capable.” Therefore, Russia will want facts on the ground to anchor a peace, and the only way to obtain those facts on the ground is through warfare.

In line with that thinking, Russia is showing a new aggressiveness. Most striking in that respect is its bombing of the Ukrainian port of Reni, on the Danube. The Danube at that point forms the boundary between Ukraine and NATO territory (Romania). The fact that Russia struck decisively literally within yards of the NATO border is a new development.

In the Kharkov direction Russian forces continue to advance aggressively, exploiting their breakthroughs. Ukrainian attempts to stop the Russian advance have been unsuccessful so far. This will put pressure on Ukraine’s positions in many other locations.

In addition, within the past 24 hours Russia has struck hard at numerous other targets, possibly with the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Those targets have included three airfields and arms depots containing NATO munitions and weapons:

DD Geopolitics

@DD_Geopolitics

From rezervsvo:

"Three enemy military airfields with British-made "Storm Shadows" missiles were pre-emptively destroyed.

The destruction took place in the regions of Kirovograd, Khmelnitskyi, and Zhtomir.

Additionally, strikes were carried out on ammunition depots and concentrations of Western-made armored vehicles."

12:02 PM · Jul 26, 2023

With regard to Putin’s recent warning to Poland to think better of any aggressive moves in an eastward direction (towards Belarus), there has been an interesting development that MKB addresses. This occured in a face to face meeting between Putin and Belarus’ Lukashenko in St. Petersburg—whether this may have been an orchestrated exchange isn’t clear but is possible:

On Sunday, at the meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg, Lukashenko picked up the thread of discussion. He briefed Putin about new Polish deployments close to Belarus border — just 40 kms from Brest — and other preparations under way — the opening of a repair shop for Leopard tanks in Poland, activation of an airfield in Rzeszow on Ukrainian border (about 100 kms from Lvov) for use of Americans transferring weaponry, mercenaries, etc.

Lukashenko said: “This is unacceptable to us. The alienation of western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of its lands to Poland are unacceptable. Should people in Western Ukraine ask us then we will provide support to them. I ask you [Putin] to discuss and think about this issue. Naturally, I would like you to support us in this regard. If the need in such support arises, if Western Ukraine asks us for help, then we will provide assistance and support to people in western Ukraine. If this happens, we will support them in every possible way.”

Lukashenko continued, “I am asking you to discuss this issue and think it through. Obviously, I would like you to support us in this regard. With this support, and if western Ukraine asks for this help, we will definitely provide assistance and support to the western population of Ukraine.”

As could be expected, Putin didn’t respond — at least, not publicly. Lukashenko characterised the Polish intervention as tantamount to the dismemberment of Ukraine and its “piece meal” absorption into NATO. Lukashenko was upfront: “This is supported by the Americans.” …

The bottom line is that Putin and Lukashenko held such a discussion publicly at all. Clearly, both spoke on the basis of intelligence inputs. They anticipate an inflection point ahead.

Now, MKB discusses in light of this the possibility of a direct Polish intervention in Western Ukraine. For reasons I’ve given in the past, I don’t believe that the Polish military, whatever its other merits, has the capability to carry a move like that out. What this looks like to me is a careful claim being advanced by Putin to a sphere of Russian influence—call it a “neutral rump Ukraine”—that will stretch westward to the Polish border.

Western scavangers also appear to be active, so perhaps they see the end coming:

Ben Norton

@BenjaminNorton

The NATO client regime in Ukraine has been selling off public assets to Western capital in a fire sale.

Zelensky announced on Wall Street that $400+ billion in public assets are for sale (more than twice Ukraine's entire GDP).

It even created the website http://privatization.gov.ua to make it easier for foreign capitalists to gobble up the country. (Note how it uses the US, not British, spelling of privatization -- which makes sense, because USAID is overseeing all of this.)

However, here’s a sobering development that is a warning that sanity has yet to prevail. Contrary to reports we’ve been citing for over a week:

The_Real_Fly

@The_Real_Fly

VICTORIA NULAND PROMOTED TO SECOND IN COMMAND AT US STATE DEPT, REPLACING WENDY SHERMAN *

9:55 AM · Jul 26, 2023