Gingrich On US Politics In Flux
Newt Gingrich adds some numbers to our seat of the pants analysis in the penultimate post. Newt compares the current mess we’re in to the leadup to the 1980 election. That was certainly US politics in flux:
Here’s the numbers part:
Gallup’s recent polls set the stage for a Joe Biden defeat comparable to the repudiation of President Jimmy Carter in 1980 (when Ronald Reagan won the largest electoral majority against an incumbent president in American history).
Consider the hole the Biden presidency is in according to Gallup.
Only 38 percent approve of the job President Biden is doing, and 59 percent disapprove.
Only 40 percent approve of his effort to help Ukraine, while 53 percent disapprove. The Biden administration’s economic program (so-called Bidenomics) is at 36 percent approval. Sixty-one percent disapprove of it.
On foreign affairs in general, Biden is at 33 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval.
On his handling of the Middle East – and especially the Israeli-Palestinian war – 30 percent approve to 62 percent disapprove.
Finally, on immigration, only 28 percent approve of his performance and 67 percent disapprove (and this was before Venezuelan illegal immigrant Jose Antonio Ibarra was charged with killing nursing student Laken Riley at the University of Georgia).
When your basic support on performance runs from 28 percent to 40 percent – and your disapproval runs from 53 percent to 67 percent – you are a candidate in deep trouble. It is going to take a lot more than good advertising for Biden to get re-elected.
The collapse in support for President Biden’s policies is reflected in other national polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics average, President Trump leads 46.7 percent to 44.8 percent. If there are five candidates splitting the vote, President Trump leads with 41.5 percent while President Biden drops to 36.8 percent.
Key swing states reflect the same advantage for President Trump.
Michigan is Trump 46.7 percent to Biden 42.1 percent (Trump up by 4.6 percent).
Georgia is Trump 48.5 percent to Biden 41.7 percent (a 6.8 Trump advantage leaving no margin for manipulation by Fani Willis’ friends).
Nevada is Trump 48.7 percent to Biden 40.3 percent (Trump by 8.4 percent).
Arizona is Trump 47 percent to Biden 42.3 percent (Trump by 4.7).
Every indicator points to the opportunity for President Trump to win by a margin big enough to help elect a Republican Senate and expand the Republican majority in the House.
Of course, if Biden collapses (as President Carter or Sen. George McGovern did) 2024 could turn into a rout of historic proportions.
The next stage will be for President Trump to campaign in all 50 states – and in every major city. There is a real opportunity to offer a vision of a dramatically better future for all Americans.
Just as candidate Reagan had a handful of themes in 1980, President Trump can focus on safety, prosperity, affordability, and American patriotism to build a huge majority.
Americans want to be safe at home and abroad. Biden is failing on both fronts.
OK, so what happens if the Dems pull off a switcheroo? My argument would be that the Dems own the Zhou mess. Logically, no alternative candidate that the party embraces should be able to successfully run against the last four years. Never mind that the eight Obama years were a trial run for the Zhou term. RFK? My guess is that Americans have had it up to here with climate crazies.
I remember the Carter years and the “sweater chats” along with the “malaise theory” of what the country’s problem was, but the level of political and governmental corruption that exists now is absolutely nothing like those years! The visceral hatred of DJT by the DS and the brain dead progressive minions, coupled with the endless “legal” chicanery does not bode well for a peaceful transition of power.
No matter what the polling numbers say about Biden’s performance, I just don’t see these people relinquishing the levers of power, I believe they are fully committed to a “nothing is off the table and whatever it takes” strategy to keep their plans alive.
I know that it’s a cliche, but I am fully convinced that this election is for all the marbles.
Re: your last paragraph, that's what I think, too. Then again, neither of us is insane, has been propagandized into fantasy land, is associated with federally funded NGOs, or benefits from a financial interest in the MIC wars. I certainly agree with Gingrich and think that is a winning strategy if you look at the sheer number of "normies" that still remain in this country. The Ivory League (h/t John Kennedy Toole) is by and large for Trump. The Ivy League is of course a different story.