Germany Reluctantly Takes Center Stage

Reluctantly, because post WW2 Germany’s diplomatic style is low key. Nevertheless, yesterday German Chancellor Scholz made the trip to DC and met with Zhou. Zhou preceded the meeting with some of the usual blather, warning Americans to flee Ukraine lest they be “caught in the crossfire” if Russia invades. As if.

What happened next? Rabobank explains, kind of:

We Have To Wait... But Not Much Longer

…

However, at their joint press conference President Biden stated if Russia invades, the NordStream 2 pipeline is finished: the Chancellor refused to even name the project and declined to commit to ending it. CNN also reports President Zelenskiy [Ukraine] has refused to see German Foreign Minister Baerbock due to his anger over Germany’s stance on Russian gas. The EU is still thrashing out the sanctions it is prepared to put in place – but without German backing what they will be?

Indeed, Wolfgang Munchau from Eurointelligence yesterday released a report, ‘The Two Germanys’, in which he argues not only will Berlin not sanction NordStream 2 regardless of Russian action, but that in the scenario that Russia attacks a NATO member, Berlin would also refuse to trigger the Article 5 collective defence clause, and might even block it in the North Atlantic Council, stymieing NATO’s ability to act. These are explosive allegations that undermine the bedrock of the Western alliance if true.

…

So, a dose of reality.

Of course Germany won’t sanction NordStream2—just as they haven’t in the past when Russia used the pipeline to exert political pressure. Moreover, anyone who thinks France will break with its big brother Germany over this is probably delusional—Macron is currently playing Good Cop #2 in the Good Cop/Good Cop routine the EU is putting on.

Of course Ukraine is upset with Germany’s stance on Russian gas. Ukraine stands to lose $3 billion dollars in transit fees with NordStream2 fully on line. That’s $3 billion fewer dollars for the American installed regime in Kiev to siphon off for its ruling oligarchy, so naturally they’re upset. But why should Germany care? Or France? Or, really, anyone?

But not only is NATO—such as it still is—divided. The US and the Dem Party are also divided, as witness the letter dispatched by ten mostly New England Dem senators, urging that the US restrict LNG exports to Europe. That’s not terribly helpful for Zhou’s regime, which is scrambling about looking for ways to help Europe satisfy its energy needs from non-Russian sources. But why should New England Dem senators care about far away Euros when New England itself is dependent on imported Russian LNG? After all, there are votes at stake later this year—these Dem senators have to keep two opposing groups in their voting coalition satisfied: Eco-nuts who have thwarted pipeline projects that could have supplied New England with American gas, and the general public that only cares about heating their homes.

Most Americans are likely unaware of these realities, but the Europeans are surely fully aware of them. They may be going along with the current charade, most of which is playing out for domestic political purposes, but they’re smart enough not to put their eggs in the unreliable Zhou’s basket. The likelihood is that Zhou will once again end up with egg on his face, and America’s prestige and international reputation will take another big hit. China will also be emboldened.

Don’t forget—it was largely the war mongering party of the Deep State that urgently wanted Trump gone and unscrupulously conspired to accomplish that end by hook and/or crook. They got what they were demanding, and now we’re reaping the results of the coup that we and our “representatives” allowed them to ram through. Count on it. International affairs will not take a pause while America sorts out the mess that it has made of its own affairs (see Conrad Black today for a litany of America’s self inflicted woes). Look for some other countries to examine their own security needs in light of American fecklessness, while others seek to exploit the situation for their own purposes. That’s the way the world has always worked.

Domestically, those New England senators may hold on to Dem voters, but no one else in the country will care—they’ll be asking what Zhou has done for the country lately. They’ll be looking at our own border security, at crime, and above all—inflation.

And by the way …

More and more Blue states are hopping aboard the ban the mandates train. They’re doing it under growing public pressure and are therefore unlikely to gain any political credit for giving in to pressure after inflicting untold harm on their populations.