I want to draw attention to a fine, thoughtful article by Big Serge. It’s been a while since his last big picture article, and this one lives up to expectations: The Age of Zugzwang The Merciless Grip of Geostrategic Logic Zugzwang, of course, is a term from chess. It simply describes the situation in which a player is forced to choose between two bad alternatives. In other words, the player is in a strategically unsustainable position that inexorably leads to defeat. Obviously, Big Serge is talking about the position the American Empire finds itself currently. The article is long but worth your time, as it’s rich in historical parallels as well as detailed strategic analysis of the position we’re in with regard to Russia, Iran—and the Greater Middle East—Israel, and (peripherally) China. Here, I’ll pluck out a few of what I consider especially insightful points, for my own purposes.
Did you ever hear of the Fugawi tribe? The Fugawi are four feet tall and live in grass that is six feet tall. Every day, they run around shouting, "We're the Fugawi!"
That's the US government, both parties, right now.
"They resist pulling back, strategic regrouping, because they are emotionally invested in both a continued campaign of revenge against Russia and in an open ended and unconditional support for Israeli policies"
So true. Investments and emotions are a bad mix and inevitably result in losses as explained by the sunk cost fallacy. From investopedia.com: This fallacy is based on the premise that committing to the current plan is justified because resources have already been committed.
No better than pigeons? More from investopedia: The sunk cost fallacy is deeply rooted in biological tendencies, as researchers from the University of California San Diego analyzed the sunk cost effect in humans as well as pigeons.1
1. National Library of Medicine. "The Sunk Cost Effect in Pigeons and Humans."
From the abstract: Experiment 4 employed a similar procedure with human subjects that manipulated only the severity of the increase in the expected ratio and found a result similar to that of the pigeon experiment.
There would be too many losers in the US if the Multi Polar World view was accepted. In a world where the USD does not have reserve status for example, the value of the dollar would be far lower than it is now, which would make American industry far more competitive and exports much higher. But the days of a $1tr military will be long gone. Would the country be better off? I would argue yes - focus would turn inward and for the betterment of the state, rather than outward and for the interest of foreign actors. But this is a gigantic shift, akin to the shift that the British had to undertake when their empire collapsed in the wake of ww2.
I figured Congressman Turner was up to no good saber rattling security concerns on behalf of Dems who want the war package appt. Confirmed when MSM saber rattles Russian Nukes to demilitarize US satellites.
Several Arab Nations including the United Arab Emirates are beginning to Restrict the United States from using Airbases within their Countries as well as their Airspace for conducting Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; the UAE which is Home to Al Dhafra Air Base, a Major Base for the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East, has reportedly done this to appear to their Population like they are not “Against Iran” and “Too Close with the West and Israel.”
So interesting! Of course while some players understand the game and the strategic imperatives and choices, others don’t and act according only to their personal motives - money, influence, getting elected etc. Still other players are simply paralysed with fear and dread - unable to see a way forward so just keep doing what they’re doing or following instructions from on high.
It doesn’t help that the Western leadership seems to be largely comprised of stupid, greedy, corrupt criminals. Their disdain for the people they purport to govern has never been more apparent than in this current crisis.
Did you ever hear of the Fugawi tribe? The Fugawi are four feet tall and live in grass that is six feet tall. Every day, they run around shouting, "We're the Fugawi!"
That's the US government, both parties, right now.
"They resist pulling back, strategic regrouping, because they are emotionally invested in both a continued campaign of revenge against Russia and in an open ended and unconditional support for Israeli policies"
So true. Investments and emotions are a bad mix and inevitably result in losses as explained by the sunk cost fallacy. From investopedia.com: This fallacy is based on the premise that committing to the current plan is justified because resources have already been committed.
No better than pigeons? More from investopedia: The sunk cost fallacy is deeply rooted in biological tendencies, as researchers from the University of California San Diego analyzed the sunk cost effect in humans as well as pigeons.1
1. National Library of Medicine. "The Sunk Cost Effect in Pigeons and Humans."
From the abstract: Experiment 4 employed a similar procedure with human subjects that manipulated only the severity of the increase in the expected ratio and found a result similar to that of the pigeon experiment.
My conclusion: we are run by the pigeon brained.
https://twitter.com/angeloinchina/status/1758004454862037101
Who is this https://twitter.com/angeloinchina ?
He doesn't hide his identity:
Angelo Giuliano
@angeloinchina
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In China since 1995, political/financial analyst. Fudan / Washington university alum. http://buymeacoffee.com/angelogiuliano http://patreon.com/angelogiuliano
There would be too many losers in the US if the Multi Polar World view was accepted. In a world where the USD does not have reserve status for example, the value of the dollar would be far lower than it is now, which would make American industry far more competitive and exports much higher. But the days of a $1tr military will be long gone. Would the country be better off? I would argue yes - focus would turn inward and for the betterment of the state, rather than outward and for the interest of foreign actors. But this is a gigantic shift, akin to the shift that the British had to undertake when their empire collapsed in the wake of ww2.
I figured Congressman Turner was up to no good saber rattling security concerns on behalf of Dems who want the war package appt. Confirmed when MSM saber rattles Russian Nukes to demilitarize US satellites.
I wonder if this has anything to do with any of it?
Lubavitcher Rebbe
“After Bibi comes the Messiah…. he, will be Israel’s prime minister, who will pass the scepter to the Messiah.”
https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/lubavitcher-rebbe-after-bibi-comes-the-messiah/
If Ukraine is a window into the Neocons mindset, retreat is something they don’t envisage. Sadly ‘meat grinder’ has entered the vernacular….
OSINTdefender
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Several Arab Nations including the United Arab Emirates are beginning to Restrict the United States from using Airbases within their Countries as well as their Airspace for conducting Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; the UAE which is Home to Al Dhafra Air Base, a Major Base for the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East, has reportedly done this to appear to their Population like they are not “Against Iran” and “Too Close with the West and Israel.”
Read that today. Didn’t see Qatar on the list with THE biggest airbase in all of Middle East. Interesting.
The adults in the room have another adventure for our summer of fun.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/joe-bidens-third-war.php
Let’s see how the French respond since they don’t have much going on in North Africa anymore.
So interesting! Of course while some players understand the game and the strategic imperatives and choices, others don’t and act according only to their personal motives - money, influence, getting elected etc. Still other players are simply paralysed with fear and dread - unable to see a way forward so just keep doing what they’re doing or following instructions from on high.
It doesn’t help that the Western leadership seems to be largely comprised of stupid, greedy, corrupt criminals. Their disdain for the people they purport to govern has never been more apparent than in this current crisis.