Geopolitical Roundup: France, Africa, India, Slovakia
Alexander Mercouris was quoting Elon Musk today. Musk has been talking lately about how world events have a whiff of “late stage empire” to them. Along those lines, I want to point to two stories that probably won’t get a lot of attention, but are quite important in the big picture.
The first has to do with France’s continuing decline as an influence in West Africa, and specifically the Sahel. France has thrown in the towel and is withdrawing its military (that began a week or two ago) and its diplomatic presence—as demanded by the coup government of Niger. Presumably that includes an intel presence as well. The US remains at its major drone base in Niger, but the withdrawal of the French is a blow to American influence—it means that the US will be largely going it alone in this resource rich region, in competition with the growing influence of China and Russia. Not a good thing.
It gets worse, for France. Morocco recently suffered a devastating earthquake, but is refusing to accept offers of aid from France. Morocco is accepting aid from Spain and other North African countries—just not from France. That suggests that France is being largely shut out of Africa, since French relations with other North African countries, especially Algeria, are not great. France is being cut off from cheap resources, and especially from cheap Nigerien uranium, which has powered France’s economy for years—Niger is demanding market prices. This is also a hit to the rest of Europe, since France also sold excess electricity to other EU countries.
This article goes into more detail:
Niger, Morocco turn their backs on France as Macron withdraws troops
In the Sahel region and in North Africa, post-colonial France is rapidly losing its influence.
The US has attempted to butt into the diplomatic flap between Canada and India. Recall that Canada—which has a very substantial Indian (dot) population, has accused India of a hit on a Sikh separatist. The problem is, Canada seems unable to produce any convincing evidence. Tony Blinken had a meeting with a top Indian diplomat, which M. K. Bhadrakumar covers at great length:
The short version is simply that the Indians—politely but firmly—delivered a message that had to come as a major disappointment to the Neocons. Briefly:
India intends to pursue its cherished independent foreign policy. It is not interested in joining any bloc.
India’s relations with Russia are non-negotiable. The two countries share mutual interests and any notion that India will drop Russia for the US is simply deluded.
Specifically, regarding not joining any bloc, India will not join with any US led naval grouping in attempting to curtail China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean. That had to come as a bit of shock to the Neocons, since China - India relations have been prickly for decades. Once again, as in the Sahel, the US is being set up to have to go it alone. Without India support, one wonders how long countries like Japan and Australia will want to help the US challenge the Chinese in the India Ocean. Further, India’s stance also is a boon to Iran, which is increasingly projecting its naval power in the region. Big picture: This contributes to the US being gradually forced out of the Middle East.
Finally, Slovakia goes to the polls tomorrow. The challenger for president, Robert Fico, is a former president who is running on an anti-war platform. He has labeled the incumbent as an “American Agent.” Wikipedia calls Fico “pro-Russian”, and Fico has pledged to end Slovakian support of Ukraine. Fico has lately been holding a 3% polling lead, but the race is conceded to be very close. Which is concerning to both the EU and to NATO:
The outcome could pose a crisis for NATO, particularly if Fico — to gain a majority and win control of the Slovak government — chooses to ally his party with Republika, an extremist far-right party, which blames NATO and Ukraine for the war.
Poland and Hungary are defying the EU with regard to Ukrainian grain exports, and Fico has said that he will join those two countries in banning Ukrainian grain.
Slovakian politics have been chaotic in recent years, and even if Fico’s party comes out in the lead (as projected by many), forming a government could be problematic. You can read more about it here:
Keep an eye on it. Taken together these events present a picture of an unraveling American global order.
So if the US becomes persona non grata in the Middle East, I’m wondering where the neocons think the energy requirements for the country to function will come from? The Biden administration has done absolutely everything to destroy and discourage energy production in the US, so I guess they figure they’ll just pay $3-400.00 a barrel for oil from the Middle East and business will go on as usual. I mean $30-40.00 a gallon gas should be no problem. $2,000.00 a month electric bills, not a problem. But the military will have gone full EV by then, so no problem there either. Of course, the reach of the neocon’s rules based order won’t be able to project much beyond Enid, Oklahoma.
Reminds me of the Colonel in the interview you posted the other day; these clowns just don’t have a keen grasp of the frickin
obvious! On the bright side, if Zhou packs it in, or, as Rush used to say, assumes room temperature, Kammy will be President, so we got that goin for us. (Forehead slap!)
Maybe the unraveling is a good thing for us here at home and the rest of the world. It doesn’t seem to have done anyone much good except the top 1/10 of 1% of oligarchs.