Gallup Polling Casts Fascinating Light On Effects of Israel/Palestine On US Politics

Well, possible effects. It’s early days and it’s all very complex. However, Steve Watson has dredged up Gallup polling from earlier this year—March, 2023—on American attitudes toward Israelis and Palestinians. Gallup has stopped doing electoral projection type polls and instead restricts itself to issue polling:

Poll From Earlier This Year Found More Democrats Sympathise With Palestinians Than With Israelis

among Democrat voters 49% to just 38% said their sympathy lies more with the Palestinian side than with Israelis.

Overall, the poll found that 54% of Americans have more sympathy for Israelis, with 31% saying they sympathise more with Palestinians and 15% remaining neutral.

Obviously, the difference is explained by overwhelming Republican sympathy for Israel. OK, we all knew that already, but what does it mean?

Obviously, the shock of horrific events may affect short term attitudes. I assume that longer term attitudes will return to the previous status quo over time. In peaceful times these views only affect voting on the fringes, with most voters voting their pocketbooks or other issues closer to home. However, if the conflict lasts and, especially, if the economic effects are serious, that may change. How that change will be manifested in voting patterns is difficult to say.

Presumably, Dems will be disposed to blame Israel for unpleasant consequences, while Republicans will, similarly but in reverse, blame the Palestinians. Does that mean that matters will simply remain in a standoff? It seems to me that a smart candidate might seek to gain advantage and poach voters from the opposition by staking themselves out as the candidate most capable of brokering a solution that would reduce the unpleasant consequences and restore the status quo ante. For now we can expect caution from the candidates, but already we’re seeing some movement. Vivek appears to me to have thought some of this through and is trying to find a way to distance himself from the same old Neocon positions, to potentially appeal to a broader public, while placing his opponents in the box of having no new ideas in a crisis situation. We’ll see how this develops.