Friday Morning Roundup; More Questions About Trump

Yesterday afternoon and evening saw a flurry of rumors regarding possible negotiations between Iran and the Trump regime as well as regarding the state of the debate within the Trump regime. Regarding the rumors of negotiations, there seems little doubt that Trump’s “people” have been feverishly trying to “reach out” to Iran, to urge Iran to accept the unacceptable deal on the table. The best reports are that Iran is simply refusing to negotiate with a country that serially murders negotiators and then brags about it:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

15h

BREAKING:

 Iran announces a failed assassination attempt on Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi a few days ago!

Megatron @Megatron_ron

4h

BREAKING:

 Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister:

"Washington asked us to negotiate and we refused, but we have no problem engaging in dialogue with other countries"

Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova·

1h

France, along with Britain and Germany, will present a comprehensive negotiation offer to Iran in Geneva today.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

1h

If it says the same as US Israel wants - it won't work.

Now, regarding Trump’s mental status, I believe I may actually have been the first to have openly raised the issue in a serious, non-political way. I’m not any sort of medical expert, nor is my wife, but my wife tells me—based on the experiences of a friend and the friend’s husband—that “dementia” is actually a catch all sort of term that can take many forms. Obviously, Trump isn’t in the same state as Zhou was. However, according to what my wife was told, some people of advanced age are still able to remember every meal (or every flavor of ice cream) they’ve had for a week at a time, yet their judgment seems impaired—they do unaccountable things and can’t be trusted to come to sensible decisions, despite the appearance of being totally “with it” in most ways.

So, take the matter of reaching out to Iran to negotiate—after tricking them into the previous bad faith negotiations and then bombing the shit out of them with a sneak attack. It appears that Trump allowed himself to be talked into this immoral ploy by the notably amoral Netanyahu. I say this because the very day before the sneak attack Trump engaged in one of his wondering-out-loud-reporters, wondering whether an attack by Israel might just move Iran to accept the unacceptable deal that was on offer. I submit that a child of six could probably have told Trump that that ploy would backfire. The same child could probably have told Trump that he was walking into a pretty elementary sort of trap that Netanyahu was setting, to draw America into a crazy and immoral war. Where was the judgment that we would expect from a CinC?

According to Netanyahu, he speaks with Trump every single day. That Trump should allow that imposition on his time seems by a notorious liar shows very questionable judgment to begin with—although, in fairness, that may have been part of the "deal” he made with his wacked out Jewish Nationalist billionaire backers to get another shot at MAGA (= Miriam Adelson Governs America). His time would be far better spent listening to intel briefings from his DNI Tulsi, but for reasons known only to himself he relies on the digest of Tulsi’s briefing provided by Veep Vance. Instead, Trump spends his time getting lobbied by war mongering generals like Gorilla Kurilla and Raising Caine. He relies for “balance” by including Veep Vance—who publicly denies that Israel is doing anything immoral in Gaza—in his inner circle. Judgment?

So what’s taking all this time for Trump to come to a decision—to pull the trigger, so to speak?

There seem to be two major factors. First, it’s reported that he doesn’t actually want to go to war. He apparently retains some dim awareness that a major war—and based on the massive expenditures so far, yes, we are in a major war already—could put paid to everything he wanted to accomplish. Second, it’s also reported that he has drawn a line at using nukes. Well, that shows some lingering judgmental ability. It seems that the military can’t guarantee that a “limited” war—an attack on Iran’s Fordow deep nuclear site—could be accomplished by conventional means. Some of the generals, probably Kurilla, are arguing for a nuclear strike—which many experts maintain wouldn’t work either. And, of course, the whole logic of “limited” war rests on the manifestly absurd notion that Iran will simply sit there and “take it”, and that Iran’s strategic partners—Russia and China—won’t react, either.

Question. How the hell did Trump manage to back himself into this kind of a corner, in which he’s faced with the choice of either backing down from every crazy threat he’s been making since his 2nd inauguration or going nuclear? Chess that is not. I’m not sure that’s even on the level of checkers, in terms of strategic thinking. What we’re seeing is the result of Trump’s strategy of running off at the mouth without checking to see whether there might be a crack in his supposed big stick. He’s been threatening Iran with war for months now, and yet it seems—from all reports—that he’s just now learning that there may be no sensible military options to back up his threats. Options that wouldn’t blow up the world economy and the geopolitical order. What has he been doing for these past months to inform his judgments? Apparently, nothing. He put all his eggs in the bluster basket, and now—quite predictably—his bluff has been called. Wow! A person possessed of sound judgment, who didn’t want to start a war and—in the event of war—didn’t want to go nuclear, would probably have reconsidered the strategy of continually escalating his threats and ultimatums without checking whether he could back those threats and ultimatums up in a way that wouldn’t do great harm to himself—and those who elected him. But no. Here we are.

Anyway, things are a bit slow this morning on the war front, but PP has weighed in. So here are a few sensible observations about the current debacle.

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

Key takeaway from Cruz interview: DC lawmakers have been lied to about Iran’s capabilities and have no idea they can strike US bases in the Middle East. If/when this happens in response to a bombing campaign they will be so shocked they will support anything. The die is cast.

1:15 AM · Jun 19, 2025

Yeah. Like, listening to Tucker instead of calling him childish names might have been a better judgment call. But then …

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Imagine thinking the Iranians are smart enough to build hypersonic ballistic missile technology but too dumb to figure out bunker buster penetration limits and dig a little deeper. The American debate around military capabilities is a complete farce. Prima facie.

Steve Fowler @SteveFo20620935

I read from the beginning that there were fortified, underground aspects to their nuclear program: indeed, how could it be otherwise?

Does even one person think that, after all of this time, Iran left all of their nuclear program in an above-ground warehouse?

One person? Trump?

zerohedge @zerohedge

Defense Officials Float Tactical Nuke To Destroy Iran's Fordow Site As World Awaits Trump Decision

11:12 AM · Jun 19, 2025

What could go wrong with that?

Sean Davis @seanmdav

In less than a week, we’ve gone from “Israel’s surprise attack to stop nuclear development was a stunning success” to “the U.S. needs to drop bunker busters on Iran because the attack didn’t work” to “the Iranian regime needs to go” to “America needs to do the regime change” to “actually we need the U.S. to nuke Iran because the bunker busters won’t work.”

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Meanwhile the vast majority of the public are like: “What is going on? We don’t want a war!”

This ain’t 2003. This will be extremely unpopular from day one. And if there are a lot of casualties on US bases people will just lose it.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

This is the craziest “war planning” I’ve seen in my life. Completely nuts.

Just Foreign Policy @justfp

 "Iran has more missiles than Israel and the US have interceptors"

"Analysts say whatever happens, officials need to act fast to end the war, because the US and Israel can't afford to sit and intercept missiles for an extended period of time"

"Israel is running low on defensive Arrow interceptors, according to a U.S. official, raising concern about the country’s ability to counter long-range ballistic missiles from Iran if the conflict isn’t resolved soon." https://wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-running-low-on-defensive-interceptors-official-says-fd64163d

For those who doubt Pakistan, consider what they owe to China for China’s weapons having saved Pakistan’s ass in Pakistan’s recent war with India.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

It looks like Pakistan is moving to back Iran in the war. So it’ll be China, Pakistan, maybe Russia pouring weapons into Iran versus Israel and the US. The US is getting pulled into a genuine proxy war. Can it stomach the required sacrifices?

8:53 AM · Jun 20, 2025

Who gamed this out? Anyone?