Feedback On US Military Preparedness

I’m always very appreciative of reader feedback—I hope that shows. Today I received feedback from some informed persons regarding whether America is ready for the war in which Israel—as some within the US ruling establishment—appears to want to involve us. For those readers who follow the comments, I’m obviously referring to the lengthy response from LTC (Ret) Robert Fausti. Rather than allow that comment to be buried, I’ll reproduce it below. Fausti comments on several factors that go into military preparedness which I hope readers will find informative.

I also received an email from a reader (who wishes to remain anonymous) whose thoughts on related matters I’ve previously republished. This reader follows military matters closely. I’ll reproduce relevant portions of that email first, as a lead-in to Fausti’s observations. While expressed differently, I believe you’ll see a convergence of views:

People keep throwing these issues around without stopping to think for a minute what the actual military risk is to Israel and what difference the US could make. We haven’t had effective military planning for years. We proceed on political assumptions. Ukraine as a proxy only made sense to an academic who never considered the logistical impossibility. Effective military planning starts with a military, not a political objective.

Until two years ago I’ve been watching very serious planning going on for a US/Israel air attack on Iran. For it to succeed in its limited objectives, it required aerial refueling. That required bases for the KC-135s etc refueling planes in Arab countries in the Middle East. The US lost the Gulf and that plan lost any utility it might have had. But it was 30 years out of date already because of the rebasing Iran had done of its missile assets as well as their tremendous improvement. Iran could destroy Israel without ever using a nuclear weapon with missiles from Iran. It still can.

Both the US and Israel are running on 30 year old illusions about their opponents and their own abilities. We can thank China and Russia for keeping Iran cool so far but the ISIS cutout attack must be near the limits

If Israel miscalculates and decides the risk of creating a war with Iran to drag in the US is worth it, they will simply destroy the state of Israel as we know it.

Iranian missiles will hit every principal target in Israel, and Hezbollah will take all of Northern Israel at least up to Tel Aviv.

You want a two state solution? There, Israel just made one possible.

If Israel resorts to nukes in retaliation, all bets are off as to whether Israel even survives.

And what could America have done?

1. Air Support (which is not up to the Iranian 300 AD system)

[Comment: My belief is that there are actually S-400 AD systems in place in Syria, which would certainly up the ante.]

1. It can get its light XVIII Airborne Corps wiped out along with some rapid deployment Marines. There won’t be time to transport and build up the heavy weapons forces used in Kuwait, Iraq etc. Hezbollah beat Israel last time… This time the IDF are softer and more poorly led. And the US forces will be under Israeli command for all practical purposes…

So what was the military mission of the US Forces: “Support the Israelis?”

Once again a political not a military objective. And since we know the Israelis can’t beat Iran alone or with us and is only going to get itself flattened, Why are pundits, “military experts” much less governments even discussing it as a serious option? With controlled media, of course, no one has pointed out how suicidal this policy is.

I hope that will serve as an introduction to LTC Fausti’s views, which follow:

Is the US Military ready for war? The answer is yes and no. It is yes, if we are going to fight a third world force with no depth or robust economic support. Think Iraq, Yugoslavia or Panama.

If you are talking against the Russians or Chinese, the answer is definitely no.

Why? You may ask, how is this possible, when our military strength is so large? It has to do with a lot of factors. Let’s take the easy ones, the obvious ones first.

1. Logistics: Erwin Rommel said that Logisticians determine the battle before it even begins. Three factors are involved here.

a. How much material, arms and weapons you have on hand?

b. How much economic/industrial capacity do you have to replace the weapons and armaments you burn up in a combat zone?

c. Last, but very important, how long are your lines of re-supply.

With the current reports of what we have on hand:

a. We have sufficient weapons and material to take on a small force. But to take on the Chinese or Russians, we would probably run out of needed items in about a week to a month: depending on the specific item.

b. We have the capability to “slowly” replace our military items for a little war. But for a large war, with Russian/Ukrainian war type expenditure rates, we would be sadly deficient.

c. In a small war against a much weaker Nation, long lines of communication and re-supply are not that critical. Why? Because for all intense and purposes, when compared to the Might and Power of the United States of America, you are clubbing baby seals. Simple as that. But when you fight a peer competitor in a High Intensity conflict, resupply times and distances matter.

To fight the Russians in Ukraine or the Chinese in the Pacific area of Taiwan is a recipe for disaster. Especially the Chinese scenario. You are asking for a major defeat. Why? Because that zone of operations has the largest aircraft carrier in the world: Mainland China. The proximity of Mainland China dominates that whole area from the Parcels in the South to the Chunxiao Gas Field in the North.

The Chinese can deploy hundreds of aircraft and thousands of missiles from inland installations. And what are you going to do, bomb mainland China? Put it this way, it would be like the Chinese trying to attack an island off the West Coast of the United States, they wouldn’t stand a chance.

Another factor. In a war with a peer military state, you also have to consider loss rates of capital ships and fleets of aircraft. If loss rates are high, this begs the question: do you have sufficient ports, skilled labor and parts /material on hand to “quickly” repair ships and aircraft? For aircraft such as the F16, F22 and F35 maybe. The B21 , B2 and B1, not really.

The ability to repair ships? Look at the repair times needed for peace time accidents involving the USS McCain or USS San Francisco. A nice point of reference is :

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/december/repair-time-critical-variable

Repair Time Is the Critical Variable, By Lieutenant Keegan Hoey, U.S. Navy, December 2022, Proceedings.

The subject of “Is the US Military ready for war” is a multifactored subject that you could spend pages on. The words I have written above are just a very short answer which says…..maybe, just maybe….it depends who you fight.

One last thought. Guys like Keane get paid to mold opinion and manufacture a consent narrative. Keane, Petraeus, McCaffery , and Hodges say things that a capable Captain of Infantry, with a modicum knowledge of history, would find ridiculous. But that is what they get paid for.

Lastly, I will say this, because it colors my thought concerning the competency of the US Military’s senior leadership.

Did you ever hear of one, just one, Battalion Commander, Brigade Commander or General Officer who did a tour in Afghanistan say that they failed their mission?

That brought a smile to my face—as I’m sure it did for anyone familiar with how government rating systems work in practice.

No, at their departure Ceremony, they all achieved their goals and accomplished their missions in a glorious manner. Then how can that be? That in 20 years and hundreds of Units deploying to Afghanistan, if everybody accomplished their mission, How did we lose against a bunch of tribal hill men?

This situation of defeat at the hands of third world army is unfathomable. But what really makes me worry is this. Come to today…….Most, if not all, the Ukrainian Army’s Offensive plans were probably created by the Military Group of the US Embassy in Kiev by a “best and brightest” officer staff. We see how that turned out. It tells me that the Military has learned nothing.