Interesting counter perspective from the anonymous substack El Gato Malo, which takes the opposite assumption of Hanlon’s razor: “don’t attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity”
Is that really the perspective you want all the TLAs to take as they investigate this? My entire adult working life was with the federal government. I know all about stupidity and incompetence--I even have personal stories on a catastrophic scale to tell (I have told them). This goes well beyond everyday stupidity into the realm of the catastrophic, which is not an everyday occurrence even in government.
I don’t know what TLA means, but you make a fair point. I’m not at all in government and just trying to discern my way through events. The proposed theory seemed plausible to me when I read it, which is why I shared it.
Three Letter Agency. Think: FBI. Or CIA. FBI has investigative jurisdiction but, depending on circumstances, could draw on the resources of the CIA or NSA. TLAs.
I've written that I retired from NGA, one of the Big Five of the Intelligence Community and a DOD combat support agency. NGA's "INT" is GEOINT, which means imagery, imagery intelligence and geospatial intelligence. NGA is all about knowing the earth visually.
As a GEOINTer with long experience using imagery, the security flaws were obvious to me immediately when I saw the graphic of the Pennsylvania rally that included the surrounding buildings in proximity to the stage where Trump was speaking. I claim no law enforcement experience, but my GEOINT experience tells me that imagery and geospatial software should've been employed to create buffer zones emanating from the center point of the stage housing Trump. The buffer zones would've been rings of concentric circles that correspond to the distance that bullets from various weapons will travel.
Also, understanding terrain, vantage points, lines of sight, etc. This was a major fail. If reports are true that the police were in the building instead of outside of it, the shooter wouldn't go through screening devices, he allegedly carried a ladder, reports of other shooters, including one on a water tower, and more, it sounds like this attempt was by design. Tucker Carson is prescient.
Off topic. I follow 270towin and they are very slow to update their predictions. The map today moves Georgia to lean Trump and downgrades Illinois, Colorado and New Mexico from dark blue to the middle shade of blue.
Interesting re the 270towin--downgrading IL! My guess on that would be suburban women waking up as a result of shopping trips and gas fillups.
Re the rest, it's pretty clear that the SS detail provided to Trump at this venue were amateurs. I don't say that in any derogatory sense. These were people thrown in over their heads to do a job that they were not used to doing. They were drawn from the Pittsburgh field office and were almost certainly doing this kinda stuff most of the time:
It would be a bit like me being given a protective assignment. I might have a clue drawn from general LE experience, but you need more than a clue to do a professional job. The same would go for the local LE who were drawn in to help.
Even so there were obvious fails, as you point out. Where the finger points, however, is at the command center. That's where the no-action decisions were ultimately made. Those no-action decisions could have been produced as the result of either people thrown in over their heads (the local LE did warn the command center multiple times--was command AFRAID to make a decision for fear of making a mistake? Afraid to pull FPOTUS off stage?) or the result of malign intent--no-action to break down protection and maintain a window of opportunity for an attempt on Trump.
I'm at the point now that if I didn't fear widespread voter fraud, I'd think Trump is primed for a big win. My instincts and observations in 2020 told me the same, but Trump didn't win. Was that voter fraud? Yes, I think it was, but the courts didn't buy it.
Regarding the command center, there's been a sea change in the IC/DOD since you retired. I can only speak for NGA but there have been a lot of diversity promotions. We saw the disastrous results with women as Secret Service agents.
Then there's the bloc of young, leftist employees who think they know everything and don't. My last ten years, there were many seasoned older white males who left because they saw the writing on the wall. Doesn't mean only white males can contribute, but these men had more than earned their stripes.
Also, government rules its employees by fear. You don't want to step out of line. I say that with respect to your comment about command possibly being AFRAID of making a mistake.
I don't miss NGA one bit. Sad to say, it's like a bad dream.
I'm not sure I'd put it quite like that. Leave state and local courts out of it. My guess, as I also argued at the time, is that the SCOTUS decided against getting involved basically because they hadn't been prepped for it. Things had been put in motion that were totally beyond their control. I think they decided not to act because they were afraid of another and worse Bush v. Gore, on far larger scale. Instead, they have issued a series of rulings that have the effect of empowering more transparency in elections. That approach, of course, is limited by the fact that the Court can only hear the cases that come before it. The GOP has to do the prep work, challenge fraud BEFORE the election, not just after.
Just me, but if I had Trumps money I’d be calling my friend Erik Prince and ask, hey former Blackwater guy, can you round me up a bunch of former Delta dignitary protection guys and step in for these SS protection subs.
In one of the earliest stories of the shooting(s) I saw that a former U.S. Ambassador who was in attendance was quoted as saying that he could tell there were two shooters. I tried finding that story awhile later, unsuccessfully, and do not remember the Ambassador's name. There remains a lot to learn and a lot of info to unfold about this.
These are things we accuse foreign dictators of doing......
First they tried to bankrupt Trump.
Then they tried to throw him off the ballot.
Then they tried to put him in prison.
Then they tried to get an Antifa wacko to try to assassinate him by screwing up his security to the point that they LET the shooter shoot before they "stopped" it. After encouraging it for years.
Well, here is another insightful consideration, this from yesterday's article by Stephen Bryen---
that, if the assassination attempt was coordinated among multiple interests, and not merely a lone young man, then, the BIG problem arises out of FBI's instantaneous declaration that the shooter acted alone, and therefore, there is no longer any threat to Pres. Trump. BUT IF, there were two, perhaps three, snipers not including S.S. snipers, as two "sound" experts on gun fire have suggested, then, at least one assailant is at large, and is not being looked for by the feds.
Yesterday's Daniel Davis Deep Dive Podcast with Ret. Col. Tony Shaffer and Matt Hoh---Shaffer posited the exact same theory of assassination expectation---and that those un-rehearseded S.S. agents appeared as if they never thought that they'd have to rush the president off of the stage (because a dead/fatally injured president would be cared for by...who...EMTs). Sick.
Just finished listening to DD and LJ. Second half goes over a lot of this stuff. LJ rightly says the FBI can't be trusted, even though they have jurisdiction.
I assume that the campaign has a director of security who has liaison with SS. They start by insisting on his regular detail and insisting that it be increased.
Looks like they've finally granted RFK Jr his security cover, so maybe they'll step up. It will be interesting to see what coverage Trump gets at the next venue. Meanwhile, Cheatle needs to resign.
It does follow: all the prior hoaxes were some form of a set-up, from Flynn’s phone call, to the claim the Ruskies hacked the DNC; the baseless and deceptive Fisa renewals on Page and others; the flim-flam Steele dossier; and on (help Ray!) down to the Mar-a-Lago raid, set-up aided and abetted by the hordes of archival Karens at NARA; the J6 “insurrection” caper and, of course, the NY and Georgia lawfare gigs;(not to mention the setting up Ukraine to make war on Russia); setting up (or propping up), Zhou, as occupant of the Oval for 4 years…all set-ups because Trump is evil…maybe at last the Dems have set themselves up for a long overdue fall, and Zhou’s their fall guy. We can only hope!
CNN Host Gets Triggered When Former Army Sniper Rep. Cory Mills Suggests the Assassination Attempt on Trump Could Have Been a Setup (VIDEO)
Mills was a sniper in the military. Follow the link. He makes the same case I tried to make. The failures were too basic and too massive to be accepted as accident or simple incompetence. In this situation you have to assume intentional agency first before you can accept incompetence. Not accept incompetence as a working theory.
I'm willing to believe that the ineptitude on Saturday was due to personnel being used who were unused to that type of work, were just subs and unsure of themselves. And that's part of the problem. Coincidence or ... part of a plan?
Worked fraud task force with SS. During an election year they would frequently lose people to augment some candidate meet and greet. I ask the SSA if they were providing protection and he said god no, just site surveys. The last thing you’d want on a protection of principal is guys like me, I learned long ago that ain’t my thing. So some animals are more equal than others.
Interesting counter perspective from the anonymous substack El Gato Malo, which takes the opposite assumption of Hanlon’s razor: “don’t attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity”
https://open.substack.com/pub/boriquagato/p/hanlons-razor-unpacking-plotlines
Is that really the perspective you want all the TLAs to take as they investigate this? My entire adult working life was with the federal government. I know all about stupidity and incompetence--I even have personal stories on a catastrophic scale to tell (I have told them). This goes well beyond everyday stupidity into the realm of the catastrophic, which is not an everyday occurrence even in government.
I don’t know what TLA means, but you make a fair point. I’m not at all in government and just trying to discern my way through events. The proposed theory seemed plausible to me when I read it, which is why I shared it.
Three Letter Agency. Think: FBI. Or CIA. FBI has investigative jurisdiction but, depending on circumstances, could draw on the resources of the CIA or NSA. TLAs.
Thanks for clarifying
I've written that I retired from NGA, one of the Big Five of the Intelligence Community and a DOD combat support agency. NGA's "INT" is GEOINT, which means imagery, imagery intelligence and geospatial intelligence. NGA is all about knowing the earth visually.
As a GEOINTer with long experience using imagery, the security flaws were obvious to me immediately when I saw the graphic of the Pennsylvania rally that included the surrounding buildings in proximity to the stage where Trump was speaking. I claim no law enforcement experience, but my GEOINT experience tells me that imagery and geospatial software should've been employed to create buffer zones emanating from the center point of the stage housing Trump. The buffer zones would've been rings of concentric circles that correspond to the distance that bullets from various weapons will travel.
Also, understanding terrain, vantage points, lines of sight, etc. This was a major fail. If reports are true that the police were in the building instead of outside of it, the shooter wouldn't go through screening devices, he allegedly carried a ladder, reports of other shooters, including one on a water tower, and more, it sounds like this attempt was by design. Tucker Carson is prescient.
Off topic. I follow 270towin and they are very slow to update their predictions. The map today moves Georgia to lean Trump and downgrades Illinois, Colorado and New Mexico from dark blue to the middle shade of blue.
Interesting re the 270towin--downgrading IL! My guess on that would be suburban women waking up as a result of shopping trips and gas fillups.
Re the rest, it's pretty clear that the SS detail provided to Trump at this venue were amateurs. I don't say that in any derogatory sense. These were people thrown in over their heads to do a job that they were not used to doing. They were drawn from the Pittsburgh field office and were almost certainly doing this kinda stuff most of the time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service#Investigative_mission
It would be a bit like me being given a protective assignment. I might have a clue drawn from general LE experience, but you need more than a clue to do a professional job. The same would go for the local LE who were drawn in to help.
Even so there were obvious fails, as you point out. Where the finger points, however, is at the command center. That's where the no-action decisions were ultimately made. Those no-action decisions could have been produced as the result of either people thrown in over their heads (the local LE did warn the command center multiple times--was command AFRAID to make a decision for fear of making a mistake? Afraid to pull FPOTUS off stage?) or the result of malign intent--no-action to break down protection and maintain a window of opportunity for an attempt on Trump.
I'm at the point now that if I didn't fear widespread voter fraud, I'd think Trump is primed for a big win. My instincts and observations in 2020 told me the same, but Trump didn't win. Was that voter fraud? Yes, I think it was, but the courts didn't buy it.
Regarding the command center, there's been a sea change in the IC/DOD since you retired. I can only speak for NGA but there have been a lot of diversity promotions. We saw the disastrous results with women as Secret Service agents.
Then there's the bloc of young, leftist employees who think they know everything and don't. My last ten years, there were many seasoned older white males who left because they saw the writing on the wall. Doesn't mean only white males can contribute, but these men had more than earned their stripes.
Also, government rules its employees by fear. You don't want to step out of line. I say that with respect to your comment about command possibly being AFRAID of making a mistake.
I don't miss NGA one bit. Sad to say, it's like a bad dream.
"but the courts didn't buy it."
I'm not sure I'd put it quite like that. Leave state and local courts out of it. My guess, as I also argued at the time, is that the SCOTUS decided against getting involved basically because they hadn't been prepped for it. Things had been put in motion that were totally beyond their control. I think they decided not to act because they were afraid of another and worse Bush v. Gore, on far larger scale. Instead, they have issued a series of rulings that have the effect of empowering more transparency in elections. That approach, of course, is limited by the fact that the Court can only hear the cases that come before it. The GOP has to do the prep work, challenge fraud BEFORE the election, not just after.
Just me, but if I had Trumps money I’d be calling my friend Erik Prince and ask, hey former Blackwater guy, can you round me up a bunch of former Delta dignitary protection guys and step in for these SS protection subs.
Is this for real? A 2nd shooter?
https://x.com/BehindNewsShow/status/1813368240661209161
This is a stretch, but????
https://x.com/HealthRanger/status/1813295504891019528
In one of the earliest stories of the shooting(s) I saw that a former U.S. Ambassador who was in attendance was quoted as saying that he could tell there were two shooters. I tried finding that story awhile later, unsuccessfully, and do not remember the Ambassador's name. There remains a lot to learn and a lot of info to unfold about this.
Are WE living in a "dictatorship"?
These are things we accuse foreign dictators of doing......
First they tried to bankrupt Trump.
Then they tried to throw him off the ballot.
Then they tried to put him in prison.
Then they tried to get an Antifa wacko to try to assassinate him by screwing up his security to the point that they LET the shooter shoot before they "stopped" it. After encouraging it for years.
‘It was a lone gunman’.
Gaslight me once, shame on you.
Gaslight me ten times, shame on me.
Were there any grassy knolls in the vicinity?
Well, here is another insightful consideration, this from yesterday's article by Stephen Bryen---
that, if the assassination attempt was coordinated among multiple interests, and not merely a lone young man, then, the BIG problem arises out of FBI's instantaneous declaration that the shooter acted alone, and therefore, there is no longer any threat to Pres. Trump. BUT IF, there were two, perhaps three, snipers not including S.S. snipers, as two "sound" experts on gun fire have suggested, then, at least one assailant is at large, and is not being looked for by the feds.
Really horrible to think about.
Joanne Wasserman
Hello Mr. Wauck,
Yesterday's Daniel Davis Deep Dive Podcast with Ret. Col. Tony Shaffer and Matt Hoh---Shaffer posited the exact same theory of assassination expectation---and that those un-rehearseded S.S. agents appeared as if they never thought that they'd have to rush the president off of the stage (because a dead/fatally injured president would be cared for by...who...EMTs). Sick.
Sadly,
Joanne Wasserman
Just finished listening to DD and LJ. Second half goes over a lot of this stuff. LJ rightly says the FBI can't be trusted, even though they have jurisdiction.
While we're arguing about cock-up v conspiracy, how does Team Trump guarantee his safety between now and the election?
I assume that the campaign has a director of security who has liaison with SS. They start by insisting on his regular detail and insisting that it be increased.
Anything will be a step up from Meal Team 6.
Looks like they've finally granted RFK Jr his security cover, so maybe they'll step up. It will be interesting to see what coverage Trump gets at the next venue. Meanwhile, Cheatle needs to resign.
Once again though the Fed govt is supposed to investigate itself? Uhh…Warren Commission?
“The Fix” will always be in.
At this point in time, there s no such thing as coincidences.
It does follow: all the prior hoaxes were some form of a set-up, from Flynn’s phone call, to the claim the Ruskies hacked the DNC; the baseless and deceptive Fisa renewals on Page and others; the flim-flam Steele dossier; and on (help Ray!) down to the Mar-a-Lago raid, set-up aided and abetted by the hordes of archival Karens at NARA; the J6 “insurrection” caper and, of course, the NY and Georgia lawfare gigs;(not to mention the setting up Ukraine to make war on Russia); setting up (or propping up), Zhou, as occupant of the Oval for 4 years…all set-ups because Trump is evil…maybe at last the Dems have set themselves up for a long overdue fall, and Zhou’s their fall guy. We can only hope!
Absolutely. Over the years of hoax after hoax the TLAs have destroyed their credibility with anyone with an IQ above room temp.
I just saw this:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/cnn-host-gets-triggered-when-former-army-sniper/
CNN Host Gets Triggered When Former Army Sniper Rep. Cory Mills Suggests the Assassination Attempt on Trump Could Have Been a Setup (VIDEO)
Mills was a sniper in the military. Follow the link. He makes the same case I tried to make. The failures were too basic and too massive to be accepted as accident or simple incompetence. In this situation you have to assume intentional agency first before you can accept incompetence. Not accept incompetence as a working theory.
Can't help thinking similar interchanges like this took place between equivalent analysts and "responsible journalists" after the 1919 World Series.
Upon further consideration, back in those days the journalists were asking the questions.
Good comparison on response times upon threat assessment.
https://x.com/angusdav/status/1813044545296158859
I'm willing to believe that the ineptitude on Saturday was due to personnel being used who were unused to that type of work, were just subs and unsure of themselves. And that's part of the problem. Coincidence or ... part of a plan?
Worked fraud task force with SS. During an election year they would frequently lose people to augment some candidate meet and greet. I ask the SSA if they were providing protection and he said god no, just site surveys. The last thing you’d want on a protection of principal is guys like me, I learned long ago that ain’t my thing. So some animals are more equal than others.
Wow