As I mention in this discussion, Russian thinking about Trump has rocked back and forth over the past month. Trump’s list of nominees for the ‘power ministries’ in his new administration aroused consternation in Moscow, since they are nearly all Neocon in outlook. The chattering classes were all saying that there is no need to show restraint and wait patiently for the Trump inauguration, because nothing good will come out his administration. Trump’s statements on the war, his insistence that Russian losses are six times greater than Ukrainian losses, confirmed the conviction in Moscow that Trump is receiving the same worthless intelligence reporting as Biden received and will reach the same conclusions about the need to continue to provide arms and money to Ukraine after he takes office. However, Trump’s most recent statements in the past week largely swept away skepticism about him. The key point was Trump’s declaring that the decision to authorize use of American ATACMS and HIMARS missiles by Ukraine to strike deep into the Russian heartland was ‘foolish and very dangerous.’ This persuaded Russian elites, and likely the Kremlin as well, that Trump may have a realistic understanding of the seriousness of Russian resolve and of its military capabilities, all of which augurs well for reaching some accommodation with the USA to end the war on acceptable terms.
From Doug Bandow's latest: "Netanyahu represents the other region with American involvement in a very hot conflict—several of them, in fact. Netanyahu is distrusted by his own people for shamelessly using the conflict to stay in power. Worse, he has turned a war of retaliation into one of annihilation, as the endless slaughter of Palestinians clears territory for settlement by his most rabid and violent supporters. He sees Trump as just another U.S. politician to be manipulated and then cast aside when no longer useful."
Jewish hatred for Russia is not a new thing, nor is Turkish enmity. Each are willing to work with the other for their own goals--weakening their enemies. But they are not friends.
Trump saying "we’re willing to listen to both sides," meaning Russia and Ukraine, exemplifies that nothing will change, ie, US elites will never treat Russians as equal human beings. The "two sides" are US taxpayers and Russia, so it's just another insult to Russia for US officials to say it's between Ukraine and Russia. NATO is currently building its largest European military base ever in Romania. "NATO Builds Largest Europe Base Near Black Sea."..."NATO began building its network of four Enhanced Forward Presence multinational battlegroups in the Baltic region following Russia's [so-called] annexation of Crimea in 2014. in 2014. After the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the alliance reinforced those missions and established four additional battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia."...3/18/2024
Yes. Exactly. I don't believe the Russians will accept less than that. They know they're real enemies are the Anglo-Zionists and their dupes--not the Ukrainians.
I was completely surprised by what appears to be the rapid collapse of Hezbollah to Israeli bombing and Syria to the combined US/Turkey/HTS/Israel aggression. Iran has yet to respond to the latest Israeli bombings, which we are told took out key Iranian nuclear and air defense sites, and Yemen's ports are being decimated by Israeli bombing. It APPEARS that there is nothing to stop Israeli aggression against its neighbors, and it has all the US bombs and support it needs to continue its attacks. Perhaps this is part of the US proxy war game - supply the Israelis everything they need to destroy its neighbors, most of which are not friends of the US.
Crooke thinks this is a self-destructive activity, and in the end it will not succeed, but why? Crooke did not elaborate. Who or what will stop Israel? They have all the weapons they need courtesy of Uncle Sam. The Arab states can't seem to combine their efforts to deter Israel from further attacks. Sure a lot of the public is appalled at the Israeli actions but that won't stop Israel.
My concern is that with the apparent Israeli success, the US will be inclined to give Israel more money, and Trump will be reticent to reign in Netanyahu.
The problem is - a good portion of Ukraine has already been sold none of us really know who owns what - Zelensky has apparently also made many private deals with countries like France Germany or others for ' security '
Almost 71% of Ukraine’s territory (or 42.7 m ha, including the occupied territories) is agricultural land. 33 m ha is arable land, far exceeding 18 m ha in France, 12 m ha in Germany,
and 11 m ha in Poland. Ukraine also has one third of the world’s endowment of the most fertile black soils.
In July 2024 The former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko said
" At the moment only 3 companies have already bought up 17 million hectares of agricultural land. This is slightly less than half of all agricultural land - 42.7 million hectares."
I happened to have done a bunch of reading on this here are a few more tidbits
How do you divide up a country where a good portion is Already Owned by corporations
US BLINKEN “We are trying to attract private investment to Ukraine to make sure its economy can grow and prosper. But you need to make sure you have air defenses to try and protect the areas you're investing in.”
Goldman Sachs owns an Undetermined amount but Very Large
NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V. is a Netherlands-based private investment firm, which owns shares in both Kernel the largest landholder and Astarta 6th largest. In April 2022, it was acquired by investment banking firm Goldman Sachs Group.
" Buying NN Investment Partners, based in The Hague, is part of Goldman Sachs’ plan to scale up its European operations." "It will also help GSAM deepen its integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) values into its operations."
"Key investors in the largest landholders in Ukraine – including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund "
TNA Corporate Solutions, 4th largest Landholder another US-based firm, is owned by American businessman Nicholas Piazza. It controls 295,624 hectares through several subsidiaries, including Pivden Agro Invest, Podillya Agroproduct, Hetmanske, and Prydniprovske.
" The fifth largest landholder in the country, with 290,749 hectares, is NCH Capital, a US-based private equity firm that invests on behalf of prominent US pension funds, university endowments, and foundations. It operates in Ukraine through the company AgroProsperis."
It would be impossible for BlackRock, or any foreign company, to purchase farmland in Ukraine, as Ukrainian law forbids foreign ownership of farmland! As The Sofia Globe explained:
Ukraine’s Land Act states in its article 1 that “land is the prime national asset and is under the special protection of the state.”
According to the law agricultural land in the country can be owned only by Ukrainian citizens, companies whose ownership is wholly in the hands of Ukrainian citizens, as well as by local councils and the state.
Article 130 prohibits foreign citizens, stateless persons or legal entities from acquiring shares in companies or being members on organisations that own agricultural land.
The law says also that those restrictions on land ownership can only be removed through a referendum.
Between 1992 and 2021 a moratorium on the trade in agricultural land was in place in Ukraine. It did not allow any land sales, even between Ukrainian citizens.
Even after the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land was lifted in 2021, only Ukrainian citizens and companies could buy or sell farmland. This was confirmed by the US State Department’s 2021 investment climate report on Ukraine:
Foreign and domestic private entities can engage in all forms of remunerative activity, with some exceptions: foreign companies are restricted from owning agricultural land, producing bioethanol, and some publishing activities.
It is therefore impossible for BlackRock, or any foreign entity, to own 30% of all farmland in Ukraine.
Ukraine would have to change its law before any foreigner, or foreign company, can buy agricultural land in Ukraine.
Second phase of Ukraine’s land reform underway, critics say law will hurt small farmers
During the first phase of the reform, companies nonetheless found ways to purchase land. Employees of a given company would purchase 100 hectares of land as individuals. They argue that being able to legally purchase up to 10,000 hectares will reduce the legal and administrative costs they incurred when purchasing 100 hectares at a time.
Aid provided to Ukraine in recent years has been tied to a drastic structural adjustment program requiring the creation of a land market through a law that leads to greater concentration of land in the hands of powerful interests.
Goldman Sachs owns an Undetermined amount but Very Large
NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V. is a Netherlands-based private investment firm, which owns shares in both Kernel the largest landholder and Astarta 6th largest. In April 2022, it was acquired by investment banking firm Goldman Sachs Group.
" Buying NN Investment Partners, based in The Hague, is part of Goldman Sachs’ plan to scale up its European operations." "It will also help GSAM deepen its integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) values into its operations."
"Key investors in the largest landholders in Ukraine – including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund "
TNA Corporate Solutions, 4th largest Landholder another US-based firm, is owned by American businessman Nicholas Piazza. It controls 295,624 hectares through several subsidiaries, including Pivden Agro Invest, Podillya Agroproduct, Hetmanske, and Prydniprovske.
" The fifth largest landholder in the country, with 290,749 hectares, is NCH Capital, a US-based private equity firm that invests on behalf of prominent US pension funds, university endowments, and foundations. It operates in Ukraine through the company AgroProsperis."
Example: 2022 The Russians are weak The Russians use shovels for weapons The Russians use washing machine chips US and Ukraine will weaken Russia
April 11, 2022 Goldman it appears so convinced by Russia weakness Goldman pays 1.7 billion euros for Dutch-based asset manager NN and the Ukrainian Land
Will Trump tell Goldman, oooops yeah well um you have to give that land to Russia we are not fighting for it anymore ?
Example: Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank.
Will Trump tell the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank., oooops yeah well um you have to give that land to Russia we are not fighting for it anymore ?
Trump seems to be playing every side wrt the Russia/Ukraine war. This is probably part of his 3D chess that we are told he is playing? When he's in office, he's going to have to have a coherent policy for peace in Ukraine and peace in the ME, while hostilities with China are brewing and the US is out of money to bribe its enemies and friends to play nice with each other. Does anyone think Rubio has the gravitas to handle this?
No. No one thinks Rubio can think deeply and act righteously; that's why Trump put Keith Kellogg in place, and Ric Grenell in place, to be "special" foreign affairs counselors to the President. I pray that Trump keeps all decision-making power and doesn't tolerate horse whisperers within his Administration---such as Alexander Vindman, Fiona Hill, Bill Barr, General Kelly, Reince Priebus, Mike Pompeo, and other turncoats like them
Trump is letting the Biden Administration implode. If Trump comments, it becomes Trump pounces. It’s good politics for Trump not to intervene in the Democratic civil war.
For the status of Ukraine, the more relevant question is what territory does Putin want. Of course this may be a moot point if the Ukrainian military collapses. Or there is a huge surge of Ukrainian refugees into Europe creating huge pressure in the Eu for a resolution.
My guess is all traditional Russian speaking areas will get conquered, including Odessa. There will be a land bridge to Transnistria. I wonder about Kiev.
The language map Mark posted is my guess. Putin has no interest in conquering an area requiring a costly counter insurgency.
The important thing about that map is the green "dominates relatively" area. You'll see that the western boundary of that area follows the line of the Dnieper river--a natural geographic boundary. Why does it say "dominates relatively" at 46%? Because 46% doesn't tell the whole story. That percent may be the number of native Russian speakers, but the reality of work and public life and internet and media usage for that area is that Russian dominates. IMO, Russia can absorb that area.
What then becomes of the area where Ukrainian dominates? It can become a Belarus-like country, where there is a native language and culture but which is also linked to Russia. Poland will not want to take on millions of Ukrainians who hate Poles as much or more than they hate Russians, because the Poles reciprocate the sentiment and don't want to absorb that problem. Russia will not want to allow a future NATO oriented area in a former Russian area, so they will bind that rump Ukraine to Russia with the expectation that time will make a difference.
Doctorow:
As I mention in this discussion, Russian thinking about Trump has rocked back and forth over the past month. Trump’s list of nominees for the ‘power ministries’ in his new administration aroused consternation in Moscow, since they are nearly all Neocon in outlook. The chattering classes were all saying that there is no need to show restraint and wait patiently for the Trump inauguration, because nothing good will come out his administration. Trump’s statements on the war, his insistence that Russian losses are six times greater than Ukrainian losses, confirmed the conviction in Moscow that Trump is receiving the same worthless intelligence reporting as Biden received and will reach the same conclusions about the need to continue to provide arms and money to Ukraine after he takes office. However, Trump’s most recent statements in the past week largely swept away skepticism about him. The key point was Trump’s declaring that the decision to authorize use of American ATACMS and HIMARS missiles by Ukraine to strike deep into the Russian heartland was ‘foolish and very dangerous.’ This persuaded Russian elites, and likely the Kremlin as well, that Trump may have a realistic understanding of the seriousness of Russian resolve and of its military capabilities, all of which augurs well for reaching some accommodation with the USA to end the war on acceptable terms.
Doug Mac: “If we think we are going to dictate to the Russians anything, we are very much mistaken.”
From Doug Bandow's latest: "Netanyahu represents the other region with American involvement in a very hot conflict—several of them, in fact. Netanyahu is distrusted by his own people for shamelessly using the conflict to stay in power. Worse, he has turned a war of retaliation into one of annihilation, as the endless slaughter of Palestinians clears territory for settlement by his most rabid and violent supporters. He sees Trump as just another U.S. politician to be manipulated and then cast aside when no longer useful."
For all the talk of Turkey butting heads with Israel their close relationship is astonishing.
Israel worked closely with Turkey over Karabakh and Turkey continues to supply oil despite the Gaza genocide.
Jewish hatred for Russia is not a new thing, nor is Turkish enmity. Each are willing to work with the other for their own goals--weakening their enemies. But they are not friends.
Trump saying "we’re willing to listen to both sides," meaning Russia and Ukraine, exemplifies that nothing will change, ie, US elites will never treat Russians as equal human beings. The "two sides" are US taxpayers and Russia, so it's just another insult to Russia for US officials to say it's between Ukraine and Russia. NATO is currently building its largest European military base ever in Romania. "NATO Builds Largest Europe Base Near Black Sea."..."NATO began building its network of four Enhanced Forward Presence multinational battlegroups in the Baltic region following Russia's [so-called] annexation of Crimea in 2014. in 2014. After the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the alliance reinforced those missions and established four additional battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia."...3/18/2024
Yes. Exactly. I don't believe the Russians will accept less than that. They know they're real enemies are the Anglo-Zionists and their dupes--not the Ukrainians.
I was completely surprised by what appears to be the rapid collapse of Hezbollah to Israeli bombing and Syria to the combined US/Turkey/HTS/Israel aggression. Iran has yet to respond to the latest Israeli bombings, which we are told took out key Iranian nuclear and air defense sites, and Yemen's ports are being decimated by Israeli bombing. It APPEARS that there is nothing to stop Israeli aggression against its neighbors, and it has all the US bombs and support it needs to continue its attacks. Perhaps this is part of the US proxy war game - supply the Israelis everything they need to destroy its neighbors, most of which are not friends of the US.
Crooke thinks this is a self-destructive activity, and in the end it will not succeed, but why? Crooke did not elaborate. Who or what will stop Israel? They have all the weapons they need courtesy of Uncle Sam. The Arab states can't seem to combine their efforts to deter Israel from further attacks. Sure a lot of the public is appalled at the Israeli actions but that won't stop Israel.
My concern is that with the apparent Israeli success, the US will be inclined to give Israel more money, and Trump will be reticent to reign in Netanyahu.
Ukraine
The problem is - a good portion of Ukraine has already been sold none of us really know who owns what - Zelensky has apparently also made many private deals with countries like France Germany or others for ' security '
Almost 71% of Ukraine’s territory (or 42.7 m ha, including the occupied territories) is agricultural land. 33 m ha is arable land, far exceeding 18 m ha in France, 12 m ha in Germany,
and 11 m ha in Poland. Ukraine also has one third of the world’s endowment of the most fertile black soils.
In July 2024 The former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko said
" At the moment only 3 companies have already bought up 17 million hectares of agricultural land. This is slightly less than half of all agricultural land - 42.7 million hectares."
I happened to have done a bunch of reading on this here are a few more tidbits
How do you divide up a country where a good portion is Already Owned by corporations
US BLINKEN “We are trying to attract private investment to Ukraine to make sure its economy can grow and prosper. But you need to make sure you have air defenses to try and protect the areas you're investing in.”
https://en.topwar.ru/245432-gossekretar-ssha-nuzhno-postavljat-ukraine-novye-sistemy-pvo-dlja-zaschity-interesov-nashego-biznesa.html
GOLDMAN SACHS
Goldman Sachs owns an Undetermined amount but Very Large
NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V. is a Netherlands-based private investment firm, which owns shares in both Kernel the largest landholder and Astarta 6th largest. In April 2022, it was acquired by investment banking firm Goldman Sachs Group.
" Buying NN Investment Partners, based in The Hague, is part of Goldman Sachs’ plan to scale up its European operations." "It will also help GSAM deepen its integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) values into its operations."
https://archive.ph/5MfIb
OTHER INVESTORS
"Key investors in the largest landholders in Ukraine – including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund "
TNA Corporate Solutions, 4th largest Landholder another US-based firm, is owned by American businessman Nicholas Piazza. It controls 295,624 hectares through several subsidiaries, including Pivden Agro Invest, Podillya Agroproduct, Hetmanske, and Prydniprovske.
" The fifth largest landholder in the country, with 290,749 hectares, is NCH Capital, a US-based private equity firm that invests on behalf of prominent US pension funds, university endowments, and foundations. It operates in Ukraine through the company AgroProsperis."
WAR AND THEFT
THE TAKEOVER OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURAL LAND
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/sites/oaklandinstitute.org/files/takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land.pdf
For Example the Germans want in ---- Professor Dr Oleg Nivievskyi, Roman Neyter
Further liberalisation of the farm-land sales market in Ukraine
https://www.german-economic-team.com/en/newsletter/further-liberalisation-of-the-farm-land-sales-market-in-ukraine/
Lindsey Graham wants his https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1799832487285465244
Mike Pompeo and others
"There is no appetite at home—or in Europe—to use tax dollars to finance Kyiv’s reconstruction"
So they want the land
https://archive.is/OEHN2#selection-5735.0-5735.44
https://www.techarp.com/business/blackrock-30-percent-ukraine-farmland/
This is interesting...an excerpt below.
It would be impossible for BlackRock, or any foreign company, to purchase farmland in Ukraine, as Ukrainian law forbids foreign ownership of farmland! As The Sofia Globe explained:
Ukraine’s Land Act states in its article 1 that “land is the prime national asset and is under the special protection of the state.”
According to the law agricultural land in the country can be owned only by Ukrainian citizens, companies whose ownership is wholly in the hands of Ukrainian citizens, as well as by local councils and the state.
Article 130 prohibits foreign citizens, stateless persons or legal entities from acquiring shares in companies or being members on organisations that own agricultural land.
The law says also that those restrictions on land ownership can only be removed through a referendum.
Between 1992 and 2021 a moratorium on the trade in agricultural land was in place in Ukraine. It did not allow any land sales, even between Ukrainian citizens.
Even after the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land was lifted in 2021, only Ukrainian citizens and companies could buy or sell farmland. This was confirmed by the US State Department’s 2021 investment climate report on Ukraine:
Foreign and domestic private entities can engage in all forms of remunerative activity, with some exceptions: foreign companies are restricted from owning agricultural land, producing bioethanol, and some publishing activities.
It is therefore impossible for BlackRock, or any foreign entity, to own 30% of all farmland in Ukraine.
Ukraine would have to change its law before any foreigner, or foreign company, can buy agricultural land in Ukraine.
Net Result Farmers Mobilized and Killed
Ukrainian Currency Crushed Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) $1 USD = .024 Hryvnia
Windfall for any corporations to buy
Welcome to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation in Europe
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in-europe-ukraine
law doesn't necessarily matter anywhere and they did change that law
eg: France bargains in return for security
French National Assembly approves bilateral security agreement with Ukraine
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240312-french-parliament-to-vote-on-macron-s-ukraine-strategy-after-controversial-ground-troop-comments
Second phase of Ukraine’s land reform underway, critics say law will hurt small farmers
During the first phase of the reform, companies nonetheless found ways to purchase land. Employees of a given company would purchase 100 hectares of land as individuals. They argue that being able to legally purchase up to 10,000 hectares will reduce the legal and administrative costs they incurred when purchasing 100 hectares at a time.
https://kyivindependent.com/land-reform-second-stage-of-ukraines-land-reform-underway-sparking-concerns-among-small-scale-farmers/
Amidst Chaos of War, A New Report Exposes the Stealth Take-over of Ukrainian Agricultural Land
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/new-report-take-over-ukrainian-agricultural-land
Aid provided to Ukraine in recent years has been tied to a drastic structural adjustment program requiring the creation of a land market through a law that leads to greater concentration of land in the hands of powerful interests.
I thought Blackrock had purchased a large swath of Ukrainian farmland. Or, did they do so under one of the other entities noted, maybe NCH Capital?
Just to reiterate
GOLDMAN SACHS
Goldman Sachs owns an Undetermined amount but Very Large
NN Investment Partners Holdings N.V. is a Netherlands-based private investment firm, which owns shares in both Kernel the largest landholder and Astarta 6th largest. In April 2022, it was acquired by investment banking firm Goldman Sachs Group.
" Buying NN Investment Partners, based in The Hague, is part of Goldman Sachs’ plan to scale up its European operations." "It will also help GSAM deepen its integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) values into its operations."
https://archive.ph/5MfIb
OTHER INVESTORS
"Key investors in the largest landholders in Ukraine – including Vanguard Group, Kopernik Global Investors, BNP Asset Management Holding, Goldman Sachs-owned NN Investment Partners Holdings, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund "
TNA Corporate Solutions, 4th largest Landholder another US-based firm, is owned by American businessman Nicholas Piazza. It controls 295,624 hectares through several subsidiaries, including Pivden Agro Invest, Podillya Agroproduct, Hetmanske, and Prydniprovske.
" The fifth largest landholder in the country, with 290,749 hectares, is NCH Capital, a US-based private equity firm that invests on behalf of prominent US pension funds, university endowments, and foundations. It operates in Ukraine through the company AgroProsperis."
Example: 2022 The Russians are weak The Russians use shovels for weapons The Russians use washing machine chips US and Ukraine will weaken Russia
April 11, 2022 Goldman it appears so convinced by Russia weakness Goldman pays 1.7 billion euros for Dutch-based asset manager NN and the Ukrainian Land
Will Trump tell Goldman, oooops yeah well um you have to give that land to Russia we are not fighting for it anymore ?
Example: Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank.
Will Trump tell the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank., oooops yeah well um you have to give that land to Russia we are not fighting for it anymore ?
Excellent--America's shame:
Joe Biden has been president-in-name-only since he was inaugurated
https://nypost.com/2024/12/22/opinion/joe-biden-has-been-president-in-name-only-since-he-was-inaugurated/
Trump seems to be playing every side wrt the Russia/Ukraine war. This is probably part of his 3D chess that we are told he is playing? When he's in office, he's going to have to have a coherent policy for peace in Ukraine and peace in the ME, while hostilities with China are brewing and the US is out of money to bribe its enemies and friends to play nice with each other. Does anyone think Rubio has the gravitas to handle this?
No. No one thinks Rubio can think deeply and act righteously; that's why Trump put Keith Kellogg in place, and Ric Grenell in place, to be "special" foreign affairs counselors to the President. I pray that Trump keeps all decision-making power and doesn't tolerate horse whisperers within his Administration---such as Alexander Vindman, Fiona Hill, Bill Barr, General Kelly, Reince Priebus, Mike Pompeo, and other turncoats like them
Yes I agree, I think some of his appointments are possibly for deceptive reasons. I do not think he is going to reveal his plans/ actions in advance.
With so much going on geopolitically, I don't believe that any one man do that.
This could be Putin's position regarding Ukraine admittance to NATO. Sure, Ukraine can be admitted to NATO when Russia is admitted to NATO.
Trump is letting the Biden Administration implode. If Trump comments, it becomes Trump pounces. It’s good politics for Trump not to intervene in the Democratic civil war.
For the status of Ukraine, the more relevant question is what territory does Putin want. Of course this may be a moot point if the Ukrainian military collapses. Or there is a huge surge of Ukrainian refugees into Europe creating huge pressure in the Eu for a resolution.
My guess is all traditional Russian speaking areas will get conquered, including Odessa. There will be a land bridge to Transnistria. I wonder about Kiev.
The language map Mark posted is my guess. Putin has no interest in conquering an area requiring a costly counter insurgency.
The important thing about that map is the green "dominates relatively" area. You'll see that the western boundary of that area follows the line of the Dnieper river--a natural geographic boundary. Why does it say "dominates relatively" at 46%? Because 46% doesn't tell the whole story. That percent may be the number of native Russian speakers, but the reality of work and public life and internet and media usage for that area is that Russian dominates. IMO, Russia can absorb that area.
What then becomes of the area where Ukrainian dominates? It can become a Belarus-like country, where there is a native language and culture but which is also linked to Russia. Poland will not want to take on millions of Ukrainians who hate Poles as much or more than they hate Russians, because the Poles reciprocate the sentiment and don't want to absorb that problem. Russia will not want to allow a future NATO oriented area in a former Russian area, so they will bind that rump Ukraine to Russia with the expectation that time will make a difference.
You're a complete idiot. Israel has zero ability to exist on its own. It's utterly dependent upon the US.