This is a discussion on Crypto Rich's (CR) platform, mostly involving Alex Mercouris (AM) and Tom Luongo (TL). What follows is part transcript, part summary, and a little bit of my own comments. I found the whole discussion quite provocative and timely, which is why I spent so much of the day on it.
I can have 50 emails in my inbox, and yours are by far the most valuable and the first ones I read. I appreciate the time you put in and value your insight. I’m really grateful for you.
So many interwoven moving parts and conflicting currents unfolding real time...the Dollar/Euro...Capitalism/Socialism...Red State/Blue State...Inflation/Recession...US/Europe/Russia/China...Carbon/Green...NATO/Ukraine...MAGA/Deep State...Trump/GOPe...China/Taiwan...WH/Congress/Supreme Court...and many, many more. Even War/Peace. And then there are Rumsfeld's Unknown Unknowns. Its definitely 4D Chess, probably 5D. I'm impressed by Luongo and Mercouris' attempts to make sense of it all...but a little skeptical that anybody can really crystal ball where everything will fall out.
Nevertheless, I do want to crawl out on a small limb and predict that the energy crisis which Europe seems to be headed towards may be bad (as in quite expensive), but maybe not as disastrous as some predict. As zerohedge reported yesterday, China is already selling Russian LNG to Europe. I'm guessing these are paper transactions and the gas doesn't actually have to flow to China before it is shipped to Germany. This report is a reminder that, notwithstanding sanctions, energy markets are truly global, there are enormous profits to be made by producers at today's high prices, and I suspect fuel will find its way to German suburbs and factories this winter well before the lights actually go out.
Excellent summation, Mark. And grim reading for us here in Europe. I guess I'm going to have to make a few more trips to my local forest to pick up some more firewood, sigh! My only point of disagreement is over the idea of the US splitting. You are right to say that this would be a disaster for Blue America and there is no chance that they would be able to cope with having to stand on their own feet. However, I think it is inevitable, whether we want it or not. You rightly say that what we call blue states are in fact just a few big blue cities surrounded by vast areas of rural redness. However, it is always those blue cities that control the state. That will continue to anger rural conservatives and be a push factor towards some kind of secession. Also, many conservatives are holding fire because they still believe that the GOP will clean house when they win the midterms. That won't happen, because the GOP under McConnell and McCarthy is useless and complicit. There are going to be a lot more angry secessionists after that betrayal. Finally, I don't see how a split would help the globalists. Sure, it would weaken Team America abroad, but it would also guarantee that some kind of traditional, conservative America Mark 2 would survive to fight their evil plans.
wrapping my head around the idea that a group of people are willing to pursue a course of action that is patently self destructive to such a degree that it could inadvertently precipitate a global calamity the likes of which the world has never seen.
But it is equally puzzling for me to watch allegedly conservative Republicans sit by and either ignore the problem completely or fail to grasp the scale of the firestorm that is rapidly approaching.
Have they never considered where this country would be had we not shut down the Keystone pipeline, eliminated oil and gas leasing on public land, and failed to continue to encourage fracking along with a host of emerging technologies that provide innovative ways of extracting fossil fuels.
Not to mention stopping the profligate spending that has characterized Washington for years.
I look at our current crop of politicians and wonder if they are all that stupid and shortsighted or so corrupt that nothing matters unless it directly benefits them.
I keep hoping that a bunch of our leaders will suddenly realize that this is madness and say “STOP”, and begin to lead us out of this nightmare. Just not sure that there is that much moral courage left in the political arena.
We can only hope that cometh the man, cometh the hour. I'd like to think it's going to be Trump, but I remain to be convinced. We need a ruthless hatchetman, and Trump is too nice.
THIS. The thought has been floating around for several years now that "Trump is their last chance. If they do not like Trump they REALLY will not like what follows Trump."
Unfortunately, the rot is so deep across every instrument of hard power (military, FBI, etc.) that it's not at all clear to me how a ruthless hatchet man would wield power. Maybe we need to look to Revelations for the power.
Thanks for the post SMH, I enjoy your insights. IMO, from what I've read about the WEF's vision for our "shared" future and what we see happening is all according to plan. What I see unfolding is a global asset vacuuming operation - practice rounds include the 2000 tech crash, 2008 housing bubble, and C-19. Our institutions and supply chain destruction, the divisive culture splitting and energy crisis is not the result of incompetence, it is the plan. By 2030 we will own nothing and be happy. This new world order is being systematically implemented over decades by multiple elites, central bankers and political/criminal cabals that transcend political parties. Look beyond the politicians, celebrities and captured thought leaders to the moneyed-class who own them. What's unfolding appears to me as a well coordinated global governance initiative conceived and executed by neo-mathusian eugenicists - who want us dead or compliant zombies. Mark, I sincerely appreciate the strong and seemingly unwavering faith you bring to our struggle. From my perch we are up against powerful multi-generational dark forces. My antidote is to live my best life each and every day.
I get the power part, but the forces these clowns are unleashing will eventually come for them with a vengeance. They are not going to be able to set fire to everything without getting caught in the flames! Their arrogance is beyond my abilities to comprehend.
I'm still trying to figure out who is correct. TL - that Powell is trying to thwart Davos or CTH, who seems to think Powell is all in with Davos and the Great Reset. One wonders...
TL has some strong arguments, and demonstratably has insight into the mechanism of monetary policy. Sundance has not demonstrated as sophisticated a grasp - CTH also seems determined to pursue an agenda as opposed to let the facts play out - witness his blind animus to RDS vs Trump.
It creates cognitive dissonance to consider the Fed and Wall St the good guys (for) now.
I always found that Sundance let's his ego get in the way much more than Luongo. When I used to read CTH, I found his followers rather cult-like. Unlike Luongo, you aren't allowed to criticise Sundance's narrative and get away with it. That's always a worrying sign.
I think that's the difference, and why Sundance is questionable on some issues. The people he fronts for have a very strong animus against certain people--Wall St. types, for example--and allows that to cloud his judgment by assuming everything they do must be bad. TL doesn't like those people either, but recognizes that for now they're doing things that help the country and its citizens. That doesn't make them good guys, just useful guys for now when we don't really have the power to address the issues on our own.
Brilliant. Thank you. The statement 'They must hate their own people' could be applied to our government as well. And they in our government are also going full speed ahead toward the iceberg. We too will have our Great Depression. The difference between us and Europe is the American people. We not only have resources-we are resourceful. We are not heading for a split. We are split. Our government does not represent us. That goes for the big cities as well. We as individuals got through our first Depression. We will weather this coming one as well. It remains to be seen if we can ever have a government we can trust in the future.
He means that a currency hyperinflates when the people lose trust in the institution, abandoning the currency which drops precipitously in value.
Thus, by the Fed raising, even though they can't tame inflation (because inflation is due to increased supply costs of energy and food, and raising rates only impacts demand, not supply) - they can still maintain institutional trust in the eyes of the people, precluding a complete loss of faith and consequent hyperinflation.
Yep. But the Fed taking money out of the financial system by "quantitative tightening" can also have an effect on inflation. Less money for banks to lend means fewer and more qualified loans, and that means less money gets into the "public" money supply.
I'm sure glad he isn't managing MY money. If you don't understand the impact on a market of its macroeconomic environment, how in the world can you make the best decisions as to "navigating" it?
Markets are what they are until they aren't what they are. The government controls things until they lose control. Humanity survives. In the final analysis that is what counts.
I can have 50 emails in my inbox, and yours are by far the most valuable and the first ones I read. I appreciate the time you put in and value your insight. I’m really grateful for you.
Tx!
So many interwoven moving parts and conflicting currents unfolding real time...the Dollar/Euro...Capitalism/Socialism...Red State/Blue State...Inflation/Recession...US/Europe/Russia/China...Carbon/Green...NATO/Ukraine...MAGA/Deep State...Trump/GOPe...China/Taiwan...WH/Congress/Supreme Court...and many, many more. Even War/Peace. And then there are Rumsfeld's Unknown Unknowns. Its definitely 4D Chess, probably 5D. I'm impressed by Luongo and Mercouris' attempts to make sense of it all...but a little skeptical that anybody can really crystal ball where everything will fall out.
Nevertheless, I do want to crawl out on a small limb and predict that the energy crisis which Europe seems to be headed towards may be bad (as in quite expensive), but maybe not as disastrous as some predict. As zerohedge reported yesterday, China is already selling Russian LNG to Europe. I'm guessing these are paper transactions and the gas doesn't actually have to flow to China before it is shipped to Germany. This report is a reminder that, notwithstanding sanctions, energy markets are truly global, there are enormous profits to be made by producers at today's high prices, and I suspect fuel will find its way to German suburbs and factories this winter well before the lights actually go out.
Just my guess.
Right. Prices will go up as a result of increased 'transaction costs' but oil will flow. Nobody will freeze.
Prices will go up, you will own nothing, but you will not freeze, so you'll be happy. --K. Schwab
Excellent summation, Mark. And grim reading for us here in Europe. I guess I'm going to have to make a few more trips to my local forest to pick up some more firewood, sigh! My only point of disagreement is over the idea of the US splitting. You are right to say that this would be a disaster for Blue America and there is no chance that they would be able to cope with having to stand on their own feet. However, I think it is inevitable, whether we want it or not. You rightly say that what we call blue states are in fact just a few big blue cities surrounded by vast areas of rural redness. However, it is always those blue cities that control the state. That will continue to anger rural conservatives and be a push factor towards some kind of secession. Also, many conservatives are holding fire because they still believe that the GOP will clean house when they win the midterms. That won't happen, because the GOP under McConnell and McCarthy is useless and complicit. There are going to be a lot more angry secessionists after that betrayal. Finally, I don't see how a split would help the globalists. Sure, it would weaken Team America abroad, but it would also guarantee that some kind of traditional, conservative America Mark 2 would survive to fight their evil plans.
Maybe it’s just me, but I still have a hard time
wrapping my head around the idea that a group of people are willing to pursue a course of action that is patently self destructive to such a degree that it could inadvertently precipitate a global calamity the likes of which the world has never seen.
But it is equally puzzling for me to watch allegedly conservative Republicans sit by and either ignore the problem completely or fail to grasp the scale of the firestorm that is rapidly approaching.
Have they never considered where this country would be had we not shut down the Keystone pipeline, eliminated oil and gas leasing on public land, and failed to continue to encourage fracking along with a host of emerging technologies that provide innovative ways of extracting fossil fuels.
Not to mention stopping the profligate spending that has characterized Washington for years.
I look at our current crop of politicians and wonder if they are all that stupid and shortsighted or so corrupt that nothing matters unless it directly benefits them.
I keep hoping that a bunch of our leaders will suddenly realize that this is madness and say “STOP”, and begin to lead us out of this nightmare. Just not sure that there is that much moral courage left in the political arena.
We can only hope that cometh the man, cometh the hour. I'd like to think it's going to be Trump, but I remain to be convinced. We need a ruthless hatchetman, and Trump is too nice.
THIS. The thought has been floating around for several years now that "Trump is their last chance. If they do not like Trump they REALLY will not like what follows Trump."
Unfortunately, the rot is so deep across every instrument of hard power (military, FBI, etc.) that it's not at all clear to me how a ruthless hatchet man would wield power. Maybe we need to look to Revelations for the power.
Precipitating a global calamity is not inadvertent - they just expect to win.
It's also not self-destructive; the elite are rarely touched by calamity.
Thanks for the post SMH, I enjoy your insights. IMO, from what I've read about the WEF's vision for our "shared" future and what we see happening is all according to plan. What I see unfolding is a global asset vacuuming operation - practice rounds include the 2000 tech crash, 2008 housing bubble, and C-19. Our institutions and supply chain destruction, the divisive culture splitting and energy crisis is not the result of incompetence, it is the plan. By 2030 we will own nothing and be happy. This new world order is being systematically implemented over decades by multiple elites, central bankers and political/criminal cabals that transcend political parties. Look beyond the politicians, celebrities and captured thought leaders to the moneyed-class who own them. What's unfolding appears to me as a well coordinated global governance initiative conceived and executed by neo-mathusian eugenicists - who want us dead or compliant zombies. Mark, I sincerely appreciate the strong and seemingly unwavering faith you bring to our struggle. From my perch we are up against powerful multi-generational dark forces. My antidote is to live my best life each and every day.
Thanks. I too appreciate some of the explanations we get here.
I get the power part, but the forces these clowns are unleashing will eventually come for them with a vengeance. They are not going to be able to set fire to everything without getting caught in the flames! Their arrogance is beyond my abilities to comprehend.
Thx for the response.
Mark, consider using https://help.otter.ai/hc/en-us/articles/360059448294-Transcribe-a-recorded-conversation. You could get a high quality transcript and then edit - may save you hours.
thanks!
I'm still trying to figure out who is correct. TL - that Powell is trying to thwart Davos or CTH, who seems to think Powell is all in with Davos and the Great Reset. One wonders...
TL has some strong arguments, and demonstratably has insight into the mechanism of monetary policy. Sundance has not demonstrated as sophisticated a grasp - CTH also seems determined to pursue an agenda as opposed to let the facts play out - witness his blind animus to RDS vs Trump.
It creates cognitive dissonance to consider the Fed and Wall St the good guys (for) now.
I always found that Sundance let's his ego get in the way much more than Luongo. When I used to read CTH, I found his followers rather cult-like. Unlike Luongo, you aren't allowed to criticise Sundance's narrative and get away with it. That's always a worrying sign.
I think that's the difference, and why Sundance is questionable on some issues. The people he fronts for have a very strong animus against certain people--Wall St. types, for example--and allows that to cloud his judgment by assuming everything they do must be bad. TL doesn't like those people either, but recognizes that for now they're doing things that help the country and its citizens. That doesn't make them good guys, just useful guys for now when we don't really have the power to address the issues on our own.
Right. He's clearly a frontman. That's fine. People just need to be aware.
What's more, is he is on the record claiming to be one person. Which lends a veneer of dishonesty.
Brilliant. Thank you. The statement 'They must hate their own people' could be applied to our government as well. And they in our government are also going full speed ahead toward the iceberg. We too will have our Great Depression. The difference between us and Europe is the American people. We not only have resources-we are resourceful. We are not heading for a split. We are split. Our government does not represent us. That goes for the big cities as well. We as individuals got through our first Depression. We will weather this coming one as well. It remains to be seen if we can ever have a government we can trust in the future.
What is: “institutional support style inflation”
Interesting post.
He means that a currency hyperinflates when the people lose trust in the institution, abandoning the currency which drops precipitously in value.
Thus, by the Fed raising, even though they can't tame inflation (because inflation is due to increased supply costs of energy and food, and raising rates only impacts demand, not supply) - they can still maintain institutional trust in the eyes of the people, precluding a complete loss of faith and consequent hyperinflation.
Thanks!
Exactly - consumer confidence is HUGE when it comes to inflation. That is why it is constantly monitored and informs the Feds actions regarding rates.
Thanks!
This explains the push for a digital currency, where spending can be controlled and takes away the consumer confidence issue.
Indeed. Hence this recent comment (https://twitter.com/nikojilch/status/1563446734184779779) by a Fed member is another data point in Luongo's favour - that the Fed is against a WEF/Davos digital currency
Right. I saw that one, too, and was heartened to see him stating it so forthrightly.
Yep. But the Fed taking money out of the financial system by "quantitative tightening" can also have an effect on inflation. Less money for banks to lend means fewer and more qualified loans, and that means less money gets into the "public" money supply.
I'm sure glad he isn't managing MY money. If you don't understand the impact on a market of its macroeconomic environment, how in the world can you make the best decisions as to "navigating" it?
Markets are what they are until they aren't what they are. The government controls things until they lose control. Humanity survives. In the final analysis that is what counts.