We’ve been talking about the Ukraine endgame—what is it, and what direction should we run in to get away from it? Some say the conflict will just go on forever. I don’t buy that. I’ve assembled some commentary from a pair of smart guys who lay out what’s going on behind the scenes. However, before we get to that, I want to recommend a substack article:
However the game plays out, the cover story is always going to be "Russia thought they could take Kiev in three days and ha ha they never did, retreated with their tails between their legs, WE WIN!! We're great. That showed them."
Ideally without too many (or any) slo-mo vids of crappy overpriced NATO hardware smouldering in fields or, worse, displayed more-or-less intact in squares near foreign embassies.
It's just how long it takes to get there. IMHO: 6 -9 months depending on how the US election cycle pans out.
Two more observations:
1/ Wasn't it Mark Millivanilli the rainbow warrior who started all this "...in three days..." bullshit in the first place?
2/ Big ups to Mark for the consistently brilliant articles but especially for the transcript-style pieces which save me the time of sitting through the lengthy videos that I don;t have the patience for. You the man.
On point: "Ah, but the elites! Spreading democracy through elite led color revolutions. That’s our game.". The neocons go with this approach because it is what ’works' in the West. The amount of high-level narrative projection & BS is telling: next step, end-game #NATO_got_nuthin
‘The pen is mightier than the sword. The trick with that approach is that you need to convince the guy with the sword to put his sword down. Awkward.’ - excellent!
Tony Heller has a collage of media, pre-SMO: "rewriting-ukraine" July 27 at realclimatescience dot com ... "Before Ukraine became the defenders of democracy, the press described them as fascists, white supremacists and anti-Semites ..."
Forgive my personal hegemony for a moment when I saw: "I’ve assembled some commentary from a pair of smart guys who lay out what’s going on behind the scenes" thought I was gonna get some credits, however I understand.
These NeoCon's still think Red October was a real event. Who's going to be our current day "Jack Ryan"?
Thanks Mark. I think you are the best meta-analyst of geopolitics at the moment. Yours is the only Substack I read religiously. Thanks for sharing your insights with us. It really helps me make sense of this crazy world!
I saw it too and, likewise, very disconcerting. It would appear that incompetence is rampant at the local levels as well. But of course the feds moved in to flex their muscle, well after the lab had been operational for some time and was filled with unknown substances. Right in our own back yard and not one person at the federal level was aware of what was going on. Incredible.
As George C. Scott’s character exclaimed in “The Hospital”, “The incompetence is absolutely radiant”.
Tom Luongo mentioned a lot of elites believe their own propaganda / gas lighting.
The panic among Democrats will increase in Ukraine as the US election gets closer.
Or, Ukraine War coverage will be relegated to being ignored in the news media, and U.S. politicians will be silent. Soon - “It’s an internal matter for Ukraine and Russia to work out.”
All the dirt / leverage Ukraine has on U.S. politicians makes forecasting hard.
Economic issues may soon be more important than facts on the ground in Ukraine. It’s a huge country, so it will take time for Russia to advance significantly with a low casualty count.
Zhou and the Democrats will have to have this conflict brought to resolution within a year. They can't go to Nov. 2024 with this hanging over their head. They will lose bigly. Most of MSM has been ignoring this lately imo. I did see on the ABC National news tonight where David M. zipperhead headlined some Russia advances during the program. Of course they led with the recent Trump news and NOTHING about Zhou's issues.
I agree the Dems need to resolve this thing or they risk getting trounced in 2024...but there's the rub...how to resolve it? Serious rock and hard place, don't you think?
I'm sorry but the Moscow Times article is bullcrap. Maybe some 'friends' of the Biden Administration called up Lavrov and offered to share their 'ideas' with him and maybe Lavrov said, Ok, let's listen, we have nothing to lose by listening and maybe we'll learn something. And Lavrov did learn something: He learned that the Biden Administration is still clueless about what it will actually take to end this war. And the made up BS somebody supplied to the Moscow Times afterwards is just that: BS.
Mercouris does a valiant job at trying to extract some measure of reasonableness from this totally nauseating piece. I agree with other comments and Mark - its use is to make the cool cats at CFR look so utterly rational, in control - but for the mad man in Moscow, everything would be hunky-dory! AM even wonders if such conversations are taking place…
It was a "reach" intended to draw reactions. Henceforth, it either validates or invalidates their assumptions on what and how to write articles moving forward. That's all.
However the game plays out, the cover story is always going to be "Russia thought they could take Kiev in three days and ha ha they never did, retreated with their tails between their legs, WE WIN!! We're great. That showed them."
Ideally without too many (or any) slo-mo vids of crappy overpriced NATO hardware smouldering in fields or, worse, displayed more-or-less intact in squares near foreign embassies.
It's just how long it takes to get there. IMHO: 6 -9 months depending on how the US election cycle pans out.
Two more observations:
1/ Wasn't it Mark Millivanilli the rainbow warrior who started all this "...in three days..." bullshit in the first place?
2/ Big ups to Mark for the consistently brilliant articles but especially for the transcript-style pieces which save me the time of sitting through the lengthy videos that I don;t have the patience for. You the man.
On point: "Ah, but the elites! Spreading democracy through elite led color revolutions. That’s our game.". The neocons go with this approach because it is what ’works' in the West. The amount of high-level narrative projection & BS is telling: next step, end-game #NATO_got_nuthin
‘The pen is mightier than the sword. The trick with that approach is that you need to convince the guy with the sword to put his sword down. Awkward.’ - excellent!
Tony Heller has a collage of media, pre-SMO: "rewriting-ukraine" July 27 at realclimatescience dot com ... "Before Ukraine became the defenders of democracy, the press described them as fascists, white supremacists and anti-Semites ..."
Forgive my personal hegemony for a moment when I saw: "I’ve assembled some commentary from a pair of smart guys who lay out what’s going on behind the scenes" thought I was gonna get some credits, however I understand.
These NeoCon's still think Red October was a real event. Who's going to be our current day "Jack Ryan"?
Thanks Mark. I think you are the best meta-analyst of geopolitics at the moment. Yours is the only Substack I read religiously. Thanks for sharing your insights with us. It really helps me make sense of this crazy world!
More Bio Labs?
Very suspicious, and blows my mind located in the US, and not Ukraine, etc.
Two places I read about it, both seem to reference same article.
https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/illegal-medical-lab-discovered-in
Same thing:
https://redstate.com/smoosieq/2023/07/28/illegal-chinese-bio-lab-discovered-in-central-california-n783720
Follow the money... Ever wonder how we got 32T in debt?
I saw it too and, likewise, very disconcerting. It would appear that incompetence is rampant at the local levels as well. But of course the feds moved in to flex their muscle, well after the lab had been operational for some time and was filled with unknown substances. Right in our own back yard and not one person at the federal level was aware of what was going on. Incredible.
As George C. Scott’s character exclaimed in “The Hospital”, “The incompetence is absolutely radiant”.
Is M16 getting desperate sending out Richard Moore in person? Quite shocking.
Tom Luongo mentioned a lot of elites believe their own propaganda / gas lighting.
The panic among Democrats will increase in Ukraine as the US election gets closer.
Or, Ukraine War coverage will be relegated to being ignored in the news media, and U.S. politicians will be silent. Soon - “It’s an internal matter for Ukraine and Russia to work out.”
All the dirt / leverage Ukraine has on U.S. politicians makes forecasting hard.
Economic issues may soon be more important than facts on the ground in Ukraine. It’s a huge country, so it will take time for Russia to advance significantly with a low casualty count.
Zhou and the Democrats will have to have this conflict brought to resolution within a year. They can't go to Nov. 2024 with this hanging over their head. They will lose bigly. Most of MSM has been ignoring this lately imo. I did see on the ABC National news tonight where David M. zipperhead headlined some Russia advances during the program. Of course they led with the recent Trump news and NOTHING about Zhou's issues.
I agree the Dems need to resolve this thing or they risk getting trounced in 2024...but there's the rub...how to resolve it? Serious rock and hard place, don't you think?
I'm sorry but the Moscow Times article is bullcrap. Maybe some 'friends' of the Biden Administration called up Lavrov and offered to share their 'ideas' with him and maybe Lavrov said, Ok, let's listen, we have nothing to lose by listening and maybe we'll learn something. And Lavrov did learn something: He learned that the Biden Administration is still clueless about what it will actually take to end this war. And the made up BS somebody supplied to the Moscow Times afterwards is just that: BS.
Mercouris does a valiant job at trying to extract some measure of reasonableness from this totally nauseating piece. I agree with other comments and Mark - its use is to make the cool cats at CFR look so utterly rational, in control - but for the mad man in Moscow, everything would be hunky-dory! AM even wonders if such conversations are taking place…
It was a "reach" intended to draw reactions. Henceforth, it either validates or invalidates their assumptions on what and how to write articles moving forward. That's all.
I knew I recognized that smell.
Why are you sorry?
Hah! You're right, Mark! Not sorry!
well played
"Rump Ukraine?" Putin says "only as a LAST resort".
Not Putin’s intent to take all of Ukraine and buttress Poland. He wants refine change, denazification, NATO weapons gone and demilitarized Ukraine.
Militia's on the rise as foreseen by the FBI last few years to address potential mutiny plans knowing we'd run out of ammo.
And most of the ammo and available military equipment is used up.
Your point number...
1) What was that again Obama whispered to Putin just before the 2012 elections? Something about Zhou perhaps?
2) Enter the "Lancet"
3) Enter "son of Soros"... I hear he's way worse than the old man. Oh, and aligned with the "Western press" so get ready.