I’m scrambling today, but I want to get a post out this morning. Yesterday I thought the main point of my post was the dynamics surrounding the Israeli delay of their invasion—IF that’s what’s going on—and the dynamics surrounding the repeated diplomatic rebuffs the US has received. In addition to KSA, PA, and Egypt, Jordan has now also refused to meet with Zhou. As things turned out, most of the commenting has been focused on the hospital bombing. Here is a Youtube video that gathers a lot of the data and provides some technical explanation, which illustrates how complicated analysis of these types of events can be. Hopefully this will help some commenters get beyond where debate seems stuck:
“Two (US) air groups were deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. Please be advised that my following message is not a threat, but rather an update: based on my instructions, the Russian Aerospace Forces will commence permanent patrols above the neutral airspace above the Black Sea. Our MiG-31 planes are equipped with Kinzhal systems, which have a speed of Mach-9 and a range of over 1000km”
What if this is a false flag by Hamas? Who wants to broaden the war and bring in as much of the broader Muddle East as possible? The mainstream media Jackals jumped right to blaming Israel for this. Team sport! Hamas/Iran has motive to broaden the war. How would a deliberate attack like this help Israel in the big picture with increased risk of a wider war?
US intelligence also confirms Palestinians were behind the blast now. The idea Israel killed 500+ people at a hospital was complete propaganda from Hamas. Remember that. Never trust the narratives they push to capture your emotional reaction or sympathy. ALWAYS confirm it.
I agree… who gives a shit about what U.S. intel says? I don’t. On the other hand, these photos and videos (coming from a variety of sources other than US intel) seem pretty conclusive to me that the hospital itself was not hit.
It is no harder for me to imagine Hamas cooking up a hospital bombing hoax than it was to imagine Israel running with the beheaded-babies hoax. If we’ve learned anything during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it’s that the PR campaign (a.k.a., lying) is more essential than ever in modern warfare.
And again, in my view, the Israelis already stepped way over the line in their response even before they were accused of killing several hundred people in a hospital.
Quote from Zhou Baiden: "I was deeply saddened and outraged by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday. And based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. But there’s a lot of people out there who’re not sure. So we have to overcome a lot of things,” he said, later calling it “the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza.”
More evidence that the hospital was likely hit by a misfired rocket within Gaza. Of particular interest is an intercepted phone convo between two Hamas operatives apparently acknowledging that it was an accident.
Yeah. Don’t have any expertise or insight there. Just thought it seemed dispositive in the moment. Should have assumed there would be questions about authenticity. My attitude is that, regardless of who’s to blame for this particular incident, Israel is destroying the lives of enough of innocent civilians to warrant condemnation.
I will say however, that as much as I sympathize with the plight of the Palestinians, I refuse to have a knee-jerk, “Israel is always wrong” or “the Israelis always lie” stance. Frankly, I don’t much trust either side in this conflict.
The included video has shortcomings. Video can be manipulated to change sounds so the sound commentary has to be set aside. What types of bombs is Israel using and what affects would they have on the surrounding structures and cars? Is there a crater? Can the bombs Israel uses be used in such a way that does not create a crater? Does Hamas have different types of rockets with different warheads? Who has access to the site? Where are the photos of the impact area? These are needed now. If they are from a month later that is too much time to manipulate the area. We do not have close up photos taken immediately or the next morning. If they showed obvious damage that a 500lb bomb would show the world would have them. Has anyone seen them? If Hamas has one size rocket experts in bomb damage assessment will be able to look at the site and surrounding area and they will know if it was an Israeli bomb or a Hamas rocket. The question is who does everyone trust to make that assessment?
Hello Mark! Great commentary! Just asking a lot of questions about this. It seems that the usual media jackals jumped to their usual conclusions about Israeli culpability. I think the video is clear about bomb craters and craterless rockets. I think the answers to the first three questions in my are: Israeli bombs would cause much more destruction in the surrounding area and leave a crater. There is no crater that I have seen in pictures so far. Only Hamas is claiming that Israel used a small bomb that would not leave a crater. A small bomb used as a warning to scare people that killed hundreds? Sounds like BS. Hamas controls the site. Have they allied access? Just asking questions.
Rereading Dawson (and, specifically, "Progress and Religion," for the first time) at your recommendation several months back has really allowed me to put some structure to the various aligned themes that have shaped my overall worldview, a blessing and something of a road map for me in trying to process all of the insanity of late. Much appreciated, again!
"A two-decades long arms embargo on Iran is due to expire today in an ominous coincidence. There will be no legal or international obstacle to Iran buying or selling weapons, including ballistic missiles."
Wondering if Russia might have sold Iran some Khinzals -- or what their domestically produced capabilities are. Wouldn't much care to be stationed in the "USS Liberty Redux" carrier group right now.
"Or that these are really arguments about history and what God said to whom about Middle Eastern real estate." I really like this sentence.
On Eschatology - I'd never heard of it until I read Simplicius the other day. I ponder on whether human beings have throughout history had a propensity for collective hysteria, or what Mattias Desmet describes as mass formation psychosis, which is now, and has been, used by those in positions of power to manipulate large numbers of people.
Hi, Amanda. It is tempting to think that mass hysteria is a relatively modern phenomenon. It has certainly been magnified by the mass and social media. However, history shows that it has always been present. And why shouldn't it have been? The mass of the human race has never been much good at critical thinking, and this has always left them open to manipulation and hysteria.
Hiya Steg :) Yes we've been had for a thousand years or so.
I definitely sense an undercurrent of unease here in the UK. I think the conflict in Gaza/Israel has an end times feel to it. But I'm hopeful because people are actually talking about what they are really thinking now..even regular folk standing in the queue at a checkout will converse with each other about what is going on. More and more people are voicing what they feel is wrong. This may well be an end times that we are living through. It may go on for a good while and cause some real damage. But I think it may just be the end of the 'they'who everyone mentions when they talk. 'They' are in their end times and we are bearing witness. Something better is coming. I'm not religious but I have faith in the higher power. Meanwhile I pray for the poor folk in Gaza and Israel.
I may have missed something, but so far I have not seen any video or still photo evidence that the hospital itself was "blown up", or even severely damaged. That didn't change when I viewed this new video analyzing the event. Perhaps it was an Israeli bomb, but everything I've seen so far appears to indicate that the explosion or explosions were confined largely to the parking lot. I did read one article saying that there were many, perhaps hundreds, of people more or less camping out in a grassy area next to the hospital which, if true, could account for the many apparent people injured and killed.
If anyone has access to a photo or video showing extensive damage to the hospital itself or other nearby buildings I'd like to see that.
The Israelis argue that if it had been one of their bombs, it would have resulted in a deep crater, of which there is no trace. Instead, there was a fire in the parking lot, indicating that the fire was caused by the ignition of rocket fuel from a misfire of an Islamic Jihad missile. The photos of the hospital show minimal damage.
The US provides Israel with 500 lb. JDAMs which, apparently, have an above ground burst mode that doesn't leave a crater, even though the explosion is quite powerful--far more so than the piddly rockets Hamas has. Photos show the dented roofs of the cars, which are compatible with an above ground burst explosion, but not with the types of rockets used by Hamas.
I don't believe that Netanyahu's government represents the Israeli people, or that Hamas represents the Palestinians, any better than Zhou represents the US citizenry.
Media agitation and escalation is a big factor here. You won't see coverage of stories like this one on Fox or CNN:
Agreed. I seriously doubt it will ever be definitively demonstrated one way or another. The incident has taken on a life of its own, beyond the facts or truth of the matter. It’s now just another vector toward escalation.
Why does this have to be about “sides?” So it’s come to this: NOBODY deserves the presumption of good faith effort at discerning the truth? That’s bullshit.
I wouldn't say "nobody", but I've had my eye on AJ long enough to feel pretty confident in not extending him or his organization the presumption of good faith at discerning the truth. And, like it or not, he's pretty clearly taking a side here. Even so, he may be telling the truth, or at least something closer to it, either by accident or because it's convenient. Same with other media actors.
The fog of war is full of atomized and finely dispersed mil-spec bullshit. I don't like it either, but I can call it like I see it.
They are all pretty predictable, in their own way. They tell you what their owners want you to hear. The hows and whys of these narratives may be quite obscure, though.
Did you see the tweet that Hananya Naftali, Netanyahu's Digital Spokesperson, posted claiming IDF responsibility for the attack? It was quickly taken down, but the receipts linger.
Putin:
“Two (US) air groups were deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. Please be advised that my following message is not a threat, but rather an update: based on my instructions, the Russian Aerospace Forces will commence permanent patrols above the neutral airspace above the Black Sea. Our MiG-31 planes are equipped with Kinzhal systems, which have a speed of Mach-9 and a range of over 1000km”
This thread is by a very knowledgeable guy talking about possible air burst explosion and how that works.
https://twitter.com/MihajlovicMike/status/1714805684657652148
What if this is a false flag by Hamas? Who wants to broaden the war and bring in as much of the broader Muddle East as possible? The mainstream media Jackals jumped right to blaming Israel for this. Team sport! Hamas/Iran has motive to broaden the war. How would a deliberate attack like this help Israel in the big picture with increased risk of a wider war?
It seems the Biden Administration policy when there is a problem is throw money at it. Their world view is every one is for sale.
Examples:
- Taliban
- Hamas
- Iran
- Lebanese Army
Hard to know what to believe these days...
Robby Starbuck
@robbystarbuck
·
8h
US intelligence also confirms Palestinians were behind the blast now. The idea Israel killed 500+ people at a hospital was complete propaganda from Hamas. Remember that. Never trust the narratives they push to capture your emotional reaction or sympathy. ALWAYS confirm it.
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1714629327134834975
It’s sad that my first thought when I hear us Intel confirms,
Is Hunter Biden’s laptop…
I agree… who gives a shit about what U.S. intel says? I don’t. On the other hand, these photos and videos (coming from a variety of sources other than US intel) seem pretty conclusive to me that the hospital itself was not hit.
It is no harder for me to imagine Hamas cooking up a hospital bombing hoax than it was to imagine Israel running with the beheaded-babies hoax. If we’ve learned anything during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it’s that the PR campaign (a.k.a., lying) is more essential than ever in modern warfare.
And again, in my view, the Israelis already stepped way over the line in their response even before they were accused of killing several hundred people in a hospital.
Website I respect’s analysis;
https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/10/almost-this-entire-al-ahli-baptist-hospital-story-is-a-massive-lie-started-by-hamas-and-amplified-by-western-media/
Or, were their lips moving when they confirmed that?
Explains why Hamas had such good Intel.
Guest workers
Also pushed by Biden, sigh
https://www.frontpagemag.com/israels-work-permits-for-gaza-enabled-the-hamas-attack/
ugh
I don't believe the Hospital was bombed by Israel by mistake, but by purpose.
They want the area evacuated. No hospital, no reason to linger.
War is nasty, bloody and gory, not glorious.
Quote from Zhou Baiden: "I was deeply saddened and outraged by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday. And based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. But there’s a lot of people out there who’re not sure. So we have to overcome a lot of things,” he said, later calling it “the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza.”
Me: "You can't put lipstick on a pig"
If you noticed, Biden read “his” statement from a piece of paper, not looking up at any time.
Was it a piece of paper? It looked to me like he was reading from a cell phone. Ugh.
More evidence that the hospital was likely hit by a misfired rocket within Gaza. Of particular interest is an intercepted phone convo between two Hamas operatives apparently acknowledging that it was an accident.
https://youtu.be/jgkEtSvBQgE?si=SbvBx89Tf2FMRDOO
Better yet, how is it the IDF intercepted this phone conversation yet were unable to intercept similar conversations regarding Hama's plans to invade?
What's your view on all the debunking of the supposed phone call? That the Arabic is bad, etc.?
Yeah. Don’t have any expertise or insight there. Just thought it seemed dispositive in the moment. Should have assumed there would be questions about authenticity. My attitude is that, regardless of who’s to blame for this particular incident, Israel is destroying the lives of enough of innocent civilians to warrant condemnation.
I can't vouch for this tweet, but ...
Arthur Morgan @ArthurM40330824
Channel 4 News chief correspondent confirms audio recording allegedly of #Hamas admitting faulty rocket over hospital strike is fake.
Several experts confirmed to Channel 4 News that the “tone, syntax, accent and expressions are absurd.”
#IsraelAttack
1:37 PM · Oct 18, 2023
I will say however, that as much as I sympathize with the plight of the Palestinians, I refuse to have a knee-jerk, “Israel is always wrong” or “the Israelis always lie” stance. Frankly, I don’t much trust either side in this conflict.
Direct from Israeli intel, eh? That couldn't possibly be faked, could it?
Where were these guys on 10/7 or the year-long lead up to it?
I'm with Efrat on this one, the whole thing stinks.
https://madhavasetty.substack.com/p/israels-911
So what did Biden’s trip achieve?
Is he out of there yet, or is there still a chance he could be vaporized by a stray hypersonic missile, and solve two neocon problems at once?
His 7 hour trip is over.
What a strange decision for the trip.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12644553/How-Bidens-seven-hour-Israel-trip-fell-apart-began-Hundreds-bodies-Gaza-hospital-embassies-burning-boycott-Middle-East-leaders-overshadowed-presidents-visit-unusually-quiet-Tel-Aviv.html
Lifetime supply of bagels and lox.
A dozen little American girls didn't get their hair sniffed. Apart from that, not much.
The included video has shortcomings. Video can be manipulated to change sounds so the sound commentary has to be set aside. What types of bombs is Israel using and what affects would they have on the surrounding structures and cars? Is there a crater? Can the bombs Israel uses be used in such a way that does not create a crater? Does Hamas have different types of rockets with different warheads? Who has access to the site? Where are the photos of the impact area? These are needed now. If they are from a month later that is too much time to manipulate the area. We do not have close up photos taken immediately or the next morning. If they showed obvious damage that a 500lb bomb would show the world would have them. Has anyone seen them? If Hamas has one size rocket experts in bomb damage assessment will be able to look at the site and surrounding area and they will know if it was an Israeli bomb or a Hamas rocket. The question is who does everyone trust to make that assessment?
Yo, Hal! The video discusses the type of bombs that may have been used and noted which types might not leave a crater. How did you miss that?
Hello Mark! Great commentary! Just asking a lot of questions about this. It seems that the usual media jackals jumped to their usual conclusions about Israeli culpability. I think the video is clear about bomb craters and craterless rockets. I think the answers to the first three questions in my are: Israeli bombs would cause much more destruction in the surrounding area and leave a crater. There is no crater that I have seen in pictures so far. Only Hamas is claiming that Israel used a small bomb that would not leave a crater. A small bomb used as a warning to scare people that killed hundreds? Sounds like BS. Hamas controls the site. Have they allied access? Just asking questions.
Good going the typos. Have they allowed access not Allied. There should be a comment where my and are are right next to each other. Apologies.
Saw your comment below about JDAM air burst option and dented car roofs. Thank you for the additional information.
Which raises another question: Do Hamas rockets always explode upon impact as crude devices or are they sometimes fused to explode before impact?
Some Hamas rockets from Iran can carry a 200lb warhead. Hamas has a dozen or more rocket types. Would a 200lb warhead do this type of damage?
Rereading Dawson (and, specifically, "Progress and Religion," for the first time) at your recommendation several months back has really allowed me to put some structure to the various aligned themes that have shaped my overall worldview, a blessing and something of a road map for me in trying to process all of the insanity of late. Much appreciated, again!
"A two-decades long arms embargo on Iran is due to expire today in an ominous coincidence. There will be no legal or international obstacle to Iran buying or selling weapons, including ballistic missiles."
https://moneycircus.substack.com/p/hospital-bombings-denial-and-blood
Wondering if Russia might have sold Iran some Khinzals -- or what their domestically produced capabilities are. Wouldn't much care to be stationed in the "USS Liberty Redux" carrier group right now.
Here's the al-Jazeera version of the expiring embargo story:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/17/conventional-arms-embargo-on-iran-set-to-end-whats-next
"Or that these are really arguments about history and what God said to whom about Middle Eastern real estate." I really like this sentence.
On Eschatology - I'd never heard of it until I read Simplicius the other day. I ponder on whether human beings have throughout history had a propensity for collective hysteria, or what Mattias Desmet describes as mass formation psychosis, which is now, and has been, used by those in positions of power to manipulate large numbers of people.
Hi, Amanda. It is tempting to think that mass hysteria is a relatively modern phenomenon. It has certainly been magnified by the mass and social media. However, history shows that it has always been present. And why shouldn't it have been? The mass of the human race has never been much good at critical thinking, and this has always left them open to manipulation and hysteria.
Hiya Steg :) Yes we've been had for a thousand years or so.
I definitely sense an undercurrent of unease here in the UK. I think the conflict in Gaza/Israel has an end times feel to it. But I'm hopeful because people are actually talking about what they are really thinking now..even regular folk standing in the queue at a checkout will converse with each other about what is going on. More and more people are voicing what they feel is wrong. This may well be an end times that we are living through. It may go on for a good while and cause some real damage. But I think it may just be the end of the 'they'who everyone mentions when they talk. 'They' are in their end times and we are bearing witness. Something better is coming. I'm not religious but I have faith in the higher power. Meanwhile I pray for the poor folk in Gaza and Israel.
I may have missed something, but so far I have not seen any video or still photo evidence that the hospital itself was "blown up", or even severely damaged. That didn't change when I viewed this new video analyzing the event. Perhaps it was an Israeli bomb, but everything I've seen so far appears to indicate that the explosion or explosions were confined largely to the parking lot. I did read one article saying that there were many, perhaps hundreds, of people more or less camping out in a grassy area next to the hospital which, if true, could account for the many apparent people injured and killed.
If anyone has access to a photo or video showing extensive damage to the hospital itself or other nearby buildings I'd like to see that.
The Israelis argue that if it had been one of their bombs, it would have resulted in a deep crater, of which there is no trace. Instead, there was a fire in the parking lot, indicating that the fire was caused by the ignition of rocket fuel from a misfire of an Islamic Jihad missile. The photos of the hospital show minimal damage.
The US provides Israel with 500 lb. JDAMs which, apparently, have an above ground burst mode that doesn't leave a crater, even though the explosion is quite powerful--far more so than the piddly rockets Hamas has. Photos show the dented roofs of the cars, which are compatible with an above ground burst explosion, but not with the types of rockets used by Hamas.
Why don't we take a deep breath and wait 72 hours.
Good idea. How about 73? And wait for bomb damage assessment experts to look at things.
Not going to happen. Both sides continue to blame each other.
I don't believe that Netanyahu's government represents the Israeli people, or that Hamas represents the Palestinians, any better than Zhou represents the US citizenry.
Media agitation and escalation is a big factor here. You won't see coverage of stories like this one on Fox or CNN:
https://charleseisenstein.substack.com/p/in-my-name-i-want-no-vengeance
Agreed. I seriously doubt it will ever be definitively demonstrated one way or another. The incident has taken on a life of its own, beyond the facts or truth of the matter. It’s now just another vector toward escalation.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/10/breaking-update-palestinian-hospital-was-not-bombed-parking/
Well, I guess we know which side Alex Jones is on, then!
Why does this have to be about “sides?” So it’s come to this: NOBODY deserves the presumption of good faith effort at discerning the truth? That’s bullshit.
Well, we make our own judgements, I guess.
I wouldn't say "nobody", but I've had my eye on AJ long enough to feel pretty confident in not extending him or his organization the presumption of good faith at discerning the truth. And, like it or not, he's pretty clearly taking a side here. Even so, he may be telling the truth, or at least something closer to it, either by accident or because it's convenient. Same with other media actors.
The fog of war is full of atomized and finely dispersed mil-spec bullshit. I don't like it either, but I can call it like I see it.
Do you think Alex Jones is more or less reliable than MSNBC or CNN or about the same?
They are all pretty predictable, in their own way. They tell you what their owners want you to hear. The hows and whys of these narratives may be quite obscure, though.
Did you see the tweet that Hananya Naftali, Netanyahu's Digital Spokesperson, posted claiming IDF responsibility for the attack? It was quickly taken down, but the receipts linger.
I suspect his career prospects took rather a downward spiral after that.
Mistakes were made.
Yep. Saw it when it first came out.
It was why I went with the story in the first place.