Don Surber's Smart Post On Abortion Politics

Here’s Surber’s post—it’s longer than his usual posts, but it’s all good stuff:

Ending Roe helps Republicans

I won’t go through everything Don has to say. Rather, I want to draw attention to his references to what Sarah Isgur has had to say. Isgur, to remind readers, was Carly Fiorina’s campaign manager. That may not recommend her to you, but she’s been paying attention actual events. However …

To set the stage for Isgur, here’s a quote from Surber that, in a way, summarizes much of what he has to say:

The same polls that show most Americans back abortions up to some point also show that most Americans favor restrictions. Ultrasounds have proven that a baby is the womb is a human being, and not a clump of cells. How is saving babies a loser at the polls?

For one such poll: New poll finds most voters support 15-week abortion ban in their state—Half of registered voters also endorsed a 6-week ban.

The only comparable issue is passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Goldwater bet his presidential hopes on a white backlash. Instead, Johnson got 61% of the popular vote -- the largest percentage in the last two centuries. You have to go back to James Monroe in 1820 to find a bigger winner. White people rewarded Johnson for solving a problem that plagued the nation for a century.

Civil rights is a feel-good moral issue. Abortion? For normal people—people who aren’t like the SCOTUS clerk who surreptitiously leaked the Alito draft—abortion is not a feel-good issue, and never will be. For most “pro-choicers” abortion is at best a necessary evil. Isgur will demonstrate the difference that makes in practical politics.

Abortion will not be the dominant issue this autumn. There is a bigger failure that dooms Democrats. Voters will make them pay for inflation and a crumbling economy. Based on the Producer Price Index hitting 11.2% in March, Democrats can expect double-digit inflation by September because the PPI is a great predictor of inflation six months out.

Inflation hits everyone. Abortion doesn't because abortion is on the wane. It has been for decades. The sexual revolution begun by the introduction of The Pill 62 years ago ended long, long, long ago.

So …

Former Carly Fiorina campaign manager Sarah Isgur, 39, wrote in Politico, "Last year, I predicted that Republicans could experience a political backlash over abortion. Instead, Republicans saw near universal gains across the country. Why was I wrong? Because after 50 years of abortion politics sorting voters, maybe there is nobody left to lash back."

Isgur cited last year's two gubernatorial races. 

She wrote that in Virginia, "Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe made abortion access a central focus of his campaign. Now a Republican is in the Virginia governor’s mansion for the first time since 2009. Governor Phil Murphy in New Jersey — a state that Joe Biden won by 16 points — sparred with his Republican opponent over Roe at debates and on the campaign trail. The race wasn’t able to be called on Election Night; Murphy eked out a win by barely 3 points."

Abortion also cannot help liberals gin up turnout because liberal turnout has maxxed out.

Isgur wrote, "The country saw some of the highest voter turnout in modern history in 2018 and 2020. Many believed — and not without good reason — that the high turnout was driven on both sides by Donald Trump. But in 2021, Virginia saw the highest percentage of voters in any gubernatorial election since 1997. Just last month, Texas held the first primary for 2022, breaking turnout records in the state. If voters are already highly engaged in the current political moment, then Dobbs [reversing Roe] could only help Democrats if they are able to find Americans who stayed home in 2018 — at the height of the Trump presidency — who are only now motivated to vote for a Senate candidate who campaigns, for example, on voting for a federal law to enshrine a right to abortion."

Byron York at the Washington Examiner also doubts abortion will save Democrats this fall.

York wrote, "Polling shows that abortion is not at the highest level of voter concerns, even after the unprecedented leak of a draft decision that would end Roe. Politico conducted a rush poll after the leak, and it did not find an electorate obsessed with abortion."

In their usual inchoate way, by the time Election 2022 rolls around Americans are likely to suss out that Dobbs will make no difference in their lives. But inflation, the border, crime, and the other issues that Americans already rank ahead of abortion will all be worse.