Does It Get Better Than This For Russia?
Lots of good news for Russia these days, including the pacts with North Korea and Vietnam. The importance of the North Korea pact, which is explicitly military in part, is obvious. The importance of the Vietnam pacts probably rests in part on Vietnam’s location on the South China Sea. I, with others, assume that Russia made these moves in consultation with China, and with the future very much in mind. My view has long been that China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea—which appear quite extreme—are heavily driven by concerns for its energy lifeline to the Persian Gulf, which passes through the South China Sea.
US threats to dominate that lifeline over the years have been clear. But this situation can change. For starters, the construction of new pipelines to Russian energy fields and the development of the Northern Route for oil are game changes, albeit not yet complete. They lessen China’s dependence on oil passing through the South China Sea. That gives China leeway to offer compromises with countries in BRICS and otherwise connected to Russia—think Malaysia and now Vietnam.
That’s all on the geostrategic level. Now this:
Lara Seligman @laraseligman
BREAKING: The U.S. "has made the difficult but necessary decision to reprioritize near-term planned deliveries of foreign military sales" to other countries of Patriot and NASAM missiles to go to Ukraine instead, per John Kirby
10:15 AM · Jun 20, 2024
Ukraine will see initial deliveries starting this summer
The re-prioritization will not impact Taiwan, Kirby says
On Israel preparing for an invasion of Lebanon, Kirby says: "I won't speak the idea of military planning they need to do that. I would just tell you that we still don't want to see a second front open up."
Here’s how I read this. The US has decided to offer its scarce, super expensive, and hard to replace air defense systems for destruction in Ukraine by Russia. NATO countries will not be receiving those air defense systems, even as war rhetoric directed at Russia is becoming over the top. NATO capabilities will be seriously degraded. This is a gift to Russia, in the event of open hostilities with NATO countries.
Oh, the US really, really does not want to see Israel attack Hezbollah. Instead, they want Israel to come to some sort of ceasefire in Gaza to try to wind down open conflict in the region. Looks like the Israeli military is siding with the US against Netanyahu.
Mission accomplished. New grandson arrived last night--a long day. 5 yr old was suggesting Fantastik ("fantastic with a K") for the name, but reason prevailed. Gramma and Grampa came through baby sitting experience in fine fettle.
Yes this all seems to be about "shoring up" Chinese and Russian defenses in the Pacific, which actions are perfectly understandable given the U.S. saber rattling against China. Apparent agreement between Russia and China as per Ukraine with an important geographical card in North Korea thrown in for good measure. Vietnam and Malaysia are also huge.
Mark, thank you for your analysis. It just keeps getting better and better all the time. I used to think I had pretty good intuition about this stuff (absent your level of research). Now I depend on you. Few can do what you do in applying the level of intellect and experience you have to your analysis. You do all this in time that I (and many others) do not have. I REALLY appreciate it. You are a prophet for good in these dark days and I believe you are doing God's work.