The question I have, Did Syria Make Odessa Mandatory
Is there now no other option the proverbial straw
Perspective: Russia is best suited to sit out of the middle east until things settle
eg: Saud backing Israel in the Gaza Genocide by actions though perhaps not by words
it is a quagmire let the US Isreal UK Turkey and everyone else muck around in it for a while
It appears Putin may reluctantly leave Syria he was a guest Putin has said he has and had no troops on the ground bases are said now to be utilized for Humanitarian Aide only
while negotiations may take place - As he cannot be 100 % certain who will control what
or who to negotiate with and for how long would it last
It appears Putin may reluctantly relocate to Libya or other but once again Russia would be a guest and for how long In both Syria and Libya Russia would have to put men on the ground to stay if at some point this Syria type situation arose again
Speculation was that Putin may have been on the fence in Odessa in any event Odessa certainly appeared a negotiation chip ' on the fence ' leaving it to Ukraine satisfied with Donbas or taking Odessa and making it Russian Territory
The question is, Did Syria Make Odessa Mandatory
Is there now no other option the proverbial straw
It may well be the mind has been made and it is done
Did Ukraine just back forces against Asaad in Syria and by doing soon seal their fate
The Turkish Syrian railway is very significant. It solves a lot of logistical issues for force projection. Interesting maps inside Syria with the connections to Lebanon:
Saudi Arabia has been bombing Yemen since 2015. Yet the Houthis continue their drone and missile attacks on the Red Sea shipping and on Israel. Maybe the renewed efforts to bomb Yemen will result in the Houthis standing down but that’s unlikely given their history. It’s a mess that we would do well to stay away from.
Israel has established a hard lock on the expansion of the Golan Heights and will now focus on decimating Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey now has its hands full with the Kurds and the full economic collapse of Syria, which it has now inherited. Both Russia and Iran will retrench and play defense until the smoke clears. The Syrian collapse will become a quagmire for both Israel and Turkey, which will limit their ability to sow more mischief in the region. Upon assuming office, Trump will soon figure out that the Middle East is a tar baby and no quick fix is obtainable. I don't see Israel launching another attack at Iran anytime soon because that would elicit a response from Iran which would likely hit back hard and further degrade Israel's economy. Plus the heightened uncertainty will prevent settlers from moving back into the northern settlements, which Israel desperately needs.
I mostly lurk, but I am an avid reader of your Substack, which gives me a deeper understanding of current events and appreciation of the moving pieces.
It’s not just the U.S. Military being incapable of engaging in multiple military conflicts at once. Western militaries as a whole are weak and ineffective. Most western militaries have been neglected and allowed to atrophy to the point of being mere ceremonial and ornamental outfits. Pathetic really.
The question I have, Did Syria Make Odessa Mandatory
Is there now no other option the proverbial straw
Perspective: Russia is best suited to sit out of the middle east until things settle
eg: Saud backing Israel in the Gaza Genocide by actions though perhaps not by words
it is a quagmire let the US Isreal UK Turkey and everyone else muck around in it for a while
It appears Putin may reluctantly leave Syria he was a guest Putin has said he has and had no troops on the ground bases are said now to be utilized for Humanitarian Aide only
while negotiations may take place - As he cannot be 100 % certain who will control what
or who to negotiate with and for how long would it last
It appears Putin may reluctantly relocate to Libya or other but once again Russia would be a guest and for how long In both Syria and Libya Russia would have to put men on the ground to stay if at some point this Syria type situation arose again
Speculation was that Putin may have been on the fence in Odessa in any event Odessa certainly appeared a negotiation chip ' on the fence ' leaving it to Ukraine satisfied with Donbas or taking Odessa and making it Russian Territory
The question is, Did Syria Make Odessa Mandatory
Is there now no other option the proverbial straw
It may well be the mind has been made and it is done
Did Ukraine just back forces against Asaad in Syria and by doing soon seal their fate
Valuable reporting. Thanks!
The Turkish Syrian railway is very significant. It solves a lot of logistical issues for force projection. Interesting maps inside Syria with the connections to Lebanon:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Railways
Yes. I believe that, while Turkey isn't advertising it yet, they're very interested in extending their influence into Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia has been bombing Yemen since 2015. Yet the Houthis continue their drone and missile attacks on the Red Sea shipping and on Israel. Maybe the renewed efforts to bomb Yemen will result in the Houthis standing down but that’s unlikely given their history. It’s a mess that we would do well to stay away from.
Israel has established a hard lock on the expansion of the Golan Heights and will now focus on decimating Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey now has its hands full with the Kurds and the full economic collapse of Syria, which it has now inherited. Both Russia and Iran will retrench and play defense until the smoke clears. The Syrian collapse will become a quagmire for both Israel and Turkey, which will limit their ability to sow more mischief in the region. Upon assuming office, Trump will soon figure out that the Middle East is a tar baby and no quick fix is obtainable. I don't see Israel launching another attack at Iran anytime soon because that would elicit a response from Iran which would likely hit back hard and further degrade Israel's economy. Plus the heightened uncertainty will prevent settlers from moving back into the northern settlements, which Israel desperately needs.
I mostly lurk, but I am an avid reader of your Substack, which gives me a deeper understanding of current events and appreciation of the moving pieces.
Merry Christmas to you and your family!!
Thanks, and the same to you and yours! We just had a wonderful Christmas Eve with sons and grandsons.
I find the concept of a resurgent/ reconstituted Ottoman Empire fascinating from a purely historical perspective.
It’s not just the U.S. Military being incapable of engaging in multiple military conflicts at once. Western militaries as a whole are weak and ineffective. Most western militaries have been neglected and allowed to atrophy to the point of being mere ceremonial and ornamental outfits. Pathetic really.