Larry Johnson has an intriguing post this morning in which he comments on reports of leaks of two Top Secret documents that discuss Israeli preparation for an attack on Iran.
What Does the Leak of Top Secret Documents Have to Do With Israel’s Promise to Attack Iran?
Larry discusses the authenticity of the docs. He finds them authenticate in appearance, but not definitively so. Additionally, the name of the missiles in the strike is not traceable on the internet—”a red flag”. The docs are reproduced at the link, so any reader with experience in these matters (which I don’t have) can form their own opinion.
The claimed leak raises multiple possibilities, and that’s the heart of Larry’s account—aside from the question of authenticity, which remains key.
What does it mean? Israel reportedly is preparing to use Air Launched Ballistic Missiles. Another thing that troubles me about these reports is that I cannot locate an internet link for the specific ALBMs mentioned, e.g., Golden Horizon ALBM. That is a red-flag. Let’s proceed with the assumption that these reports are genuine and contain accurate information. As of 16 October, Israel was not exhibiting signs of prepping an imminent attack on Iran. The second image characterizes Israeli activity as low-to-moderate. No sign of urgent preparation.
Now we enter the hall of mirrors. Are these reports part of an elaborate psychological operation intended to lull Iran into a sense of complacency? Or, are these reports accurate and the leak is intended to provide “proof” to Iran, Russia and China that Israel is struggling to get its act together. If these two documents are legit, then they provide Iran and Russia with valuable intel that could be used to blunt, if not defeat, the Israeli attack.
The last point is intriguing. Was this an authorized leak designed to force Israel to alter its plans because the information disclosed in the two documents can aid Iran in countering Israel’s contemplated attack? Is this the act of a whistleblower, deciding to act on his or her own initiative, to try to derail an Israeli attack? I don’t know. But I do know what I would do to verify and certify that the documents are genuine.
Now, importantly, Larry discusses these claimed leaks in two videos. In this first video he suggests, as above but in more detail, that this development could be intended to derail Israeli plans that would lead to a regional or global conflagration. From that perspective, he questions whether this was an “authorized leak” by the US. The Zhou regime would not want this to happen before the election, IMO. I believe this would alarm Americans, rather than lead to a rallying effect that would benefit the Dems. Larry also mentions that Russia may be seeking some non-military resolution to the Iran - Israel escalation ladder:
Israel's DESPERATE Gamble: Begging for a CRUSHING Defeat from Iran & Hezbollah?
I haven’t listened to the second video, yet, which is with Ania K, but I believe he discusses these docs in that video, too. Regardless, Larry discusses a fundamental factor in all of this—the Russian factor:
WHAT WILL END THE WAR IN GAZA? RELATIONSHIP W/IRAN IS A PRIORITY FOR RUSSIA
Putin has consistently sought to avoid a true global conflict, which is what the Neocons may be seeking to set up. One can speculate on the shape of such a global conflict, but the potential for it to go nuclear cannot be discounted—no matter the initial calculation, intentions to honor redlines, whatever. Things have a way of getting out of control, and we are dealing with real crazies.
In your post titled, "Russia, Iran, Israel, US--A Dialog", you made a very insightful comment in response to American Cardigan, "The current geopolitical situation is highly fluid and the status quo will not remain--not even in a degraded form. Well, that's my prediction. America, one way or another, will be forced to focus on its own very real problems."
If we get involved in going up against Iran, I fear us getting into a quagmire. Either that, or we sustain heavy casualties and pull out quickly. I don't see how it ends well for us. That leads us to abandoning our role as the world's policeman. In that vein, I share a link to an article I think you'll find interesting. It jibes with your quote above. It's titled Delusion in DC, written by Josiah Lippincott and found on American Greatness at https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/18/delusion-in-dc/
From my limited understanding of Israel's and Iran's relative strengths and weaknesses, Israel's best chance for 'success', which I am not endorsing, seems to be a preemptive heavy strike. If that doesn't work, it seems to me, that Israel is then at the mercy of Iran. Rather than step back from the abyss, which I understand he can't do, or he is finished, maybe to the point of being jailed by Israel, Netanyahu is like a cornered animal. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Israel is going to stand down. They appear set on going for double or nothing.