Undoubtedly the most disappointing aspect of the China Balloon incident is the number of knuckleheads who immediately began running around crying that shiny objects were falling from the sky. Or, alternatively, that the sky itself was falling.Thanks for reading Meaning In History! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
10:33 minute video by The Duran. Their claim is that Chinese were totally trolling the Americans and got the response they were looking for. YMMV, but I agree that the hysteria has been misguided.
While we’re balloon-gazing, Chinese spies are going about their business, unhindered by our “ justice” system. Trump makes the point that Zhou shut down his China Initiative project at DOJ which sought to prosecute and punish Chinese business, academic, tech, medical - saboteurs…another blatant example, if one were needed, of Zhou’s corruption - I wonder if the balloon picked up the massive bar code slapped on the roof of the WH as it cruised overhead…
“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap," Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck,
Domain Awareness Gap? An EMP [EDIT, apologies to EMT folks] device or two on similar balloons would devastate this country. A Chinese front of North Korea would neuter any real response, they'd claim they'd protect NK from allegations that rightly weren't true ('cause China would have done it!). The US would pretty much self-destruct in about 3 weeks; our un-educated masses of youth would begin to starve once their phones quit and, if I recall, the 3 days supply of in-stock food was gone. Urban folks would venture into and target rural areas, seeing some folks got light from generators, were eating/drinking/surviving while they couldn't even make a campfire once their Bic ran out of gas. Altho', fire will be readily available in the former urban areas as it'll all get burned down.
Did we see this movie? Fact is, if the 'weather balloons' are not of much interest their payload needn't be large; EMP results are pretty widely know to be more potent a mass-killing weapon than just about everything else. (Edit: not in and of themselves but the results they'll produce). Nukes will get nukes shot back, EMP's not so much... Sleep Well, your Biden Administration is on the Job! Note: all alphabet/gender fluid folks will go to the front of the line 'cause our military is well trained now. Sorry to be so flippant: it's just stunning to have read General VanHerk's comments. It seemed just stupid about the Chinese 'weather balloon', but it's deadly. (WRH) *Aren't I full of fun today. Apologies...
Hmmm, good point. Create a crisis (I argued a dangerous one) and never let it go to waste! Demand funding to avert such future crisis. Creative Bureaucratic self-expansion... (Hey Bruce, best @ ya. Is the PNW as in Pac NW? WRH)
"Another U.S. official said intelligence agencies began tracking the balloon several days ago, not long after it had left China and began its controlled drift toward the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The official said American trackers continued to monitor the balloon as it progressed through Canada toward the continental United States, and were surprised when it crossed over into American airspace."
Actually, I'm pretty sure that Alaska is American airspace and if the balloon had any legitimate purpose, the Chinese could have rung up the American embassy and told someone about it ahead of time. That said, I think the real story here isn't the balloon, which for all I know came from Xi's birthday party. The former Senator from New Jersey needed to make a decision, own it, and then shut up. he logical choices here were 1.) Shoot the damn thing the moment it crossed into US airspace, which includes Alaska or 2.) Say "Look it's just a balloon. Chill." Make the decision and own it. Instead, he let the thing drift a few thousand miles and then shot it down after there was no longer any possible purpose to be served by doing so. Then he complained about being overruled by a ridiculous General who serves at his pleasure.
The balloon may not have been a national security emergency, but if we have one, this is the kind of decision making we can look forward to. And that's a way bigger problem than any balloon.
I wonder if the MSM is beginning to react to the fact of the loss Biden et al is and weighing remaining even a little bit viable as a 'media'. With seeming competitive forces on the generic progressive left squabbling it's hard to choose sides (when, in my opinion, all of the left are losers) while the conservative/right is not even considered as a side to opt for. Also, Biden & clown car is being a bigot against clown cars. At least they're funny/stupid and harmless. As Mark notes, China is testing - lots - including limits 'plus turn-about is fair play' may have something to do with it all. China has stolen so much intellectual property they don't even know which it is anymore. Just use it all. *Plus I bet balloons are cheap and a lot of fun for 'em... (apologies for the silliness, well only a little). Best at ya! (WRH)
Re "They keep on pushing till they receive pushback."
And maybe then some. Isn't it called Brinkmanship?
According to Wikipedia, “Brinkmanship…is the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. The maneuver of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions rather than risk engaging in a conflict that would no longer be beneficial to either side. That might be achieved through diplomatic maneuvers, by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. The tactic occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, contemporary military strategy (by involving the threat of nuclear weapons), terrorism, and high-stakes litigation.
“The term is chiefly associated with US Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, from 1953 to 1956 during the Eisenhower administration. Dulles sought to deter aggression by the Soviet Union by warning that the cost might be massive retaliation against Soviet targets…”
I think a good argument can be made that Brinkmanship is an integral ingredient of the policy of the neocon element which seems to control the Biden administration. If one posits that Brinkmanship is just a tactic in an overall strategy to control the world through military might, then I think a good argument can be made that Brinkmanship has been an essential element of US foreign policy at least since WWII, the ‘statesmanship’ of John Foster Dulles, and the advent of the Cold War. It didn't end with the fall of the Iron Curtain.
For a fascinating treatment of US foreign policy post-WWII and of the actions and legacy of the Dulles brothers (John Foster and his brother, Allen, the Cold War director of the CIA) read The Devil's Chessboard.
All very true. And it can work. Until someone who's loaded for bear calls your bluff. Putin spent two decades--and especially intensively over the last 8 years--getting loaded for bear.
I heard an analysis this morning that satellites fly very high and very fast thus limiting the amount and quality of the data they can gather versus a lower and slower balloon was the gist of it.
I would say the real issue here is that we simply have a government we cannot trust and a foreign policy we cannot understand. And to the extent it is understandable, it is driving the American people apart.
No, they can't explain the Chinese balloon. They can't explain whether they were tracking it when it drifted over Alaska and they can't explain its purpose. They can't explain why it crossed the entire North American continent before they shot it down.
But they can't explain any aspect of our China policy in any convincing way. Is China our No.1 existential threat or our No.1 trading partner (measured by imports) without whose manufacturing output the United States could simply not function? How do we marry these polar extremes in a rational foreign policy?
What is our Taiwan policy? Is Taiwan really an independent republic or, as the US has acknowledged for decades, an inseparable part of China's territory. Is the Chinese Communist Party goal of the complete reunification of China an existential threat to the United States which would justify war with China? How and where would the US fight a war with China?
They can't explain our Ukraine policy. Is Ukraine a capitalist, freedom-loving, democratic nation begging for our help in joining the capitalist, freedom-loving, democratic community of Western nations? Or is Ukraine the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe dominated by a naziesque military and authoritarian government which represses basic freedoms and has been waging civil war on its Russian-speaking population for years?
They can't explain our Russia policy. Is Russia an existential threat and satanic evil led by an authoritarian madman who must be destroyed by any and all means possible? Or is Russia a sovereign and independent nation clearly entitled to look after its own economic interests and security concerns (just as we do)? Did Russia unilaterally invade Ukraine in a naked military exercise to advance its imperialist manifesto? Or was Russia (intentionally?) provoked into a military response after decades of its own reasonable attempts to negotiate limits to NATO's (US-led) eastward military expansion? Who has appeased who?
These questions beg a thousand others. Chief among them is whether the US is the shining City on the Hill seeking to spread enlightened liberal democratic principles among all the peoples of the world for the good of all...or is the US a militaristic superpower bent on world domination to defend its global industrial interests and, not the least, its fiat currency which it has used to finance enormous deficits and without which it would be hard put to finance either its global military expenses or its unaffordable domestic programs?
Like many, I believe the confusion over what the real facts are and what the US's real policies are (as noted above) is masking our own existential crisis as the real truth slowly emerges.
By the way, I don't think Russia is wallowing in its own existential crisis. Having thrown off the Communist yoke, and nearly destroyed itself in the anarchic aftermath of Communism, Russia has, for the last 20 years or so, been rediscovering its essential self and rebuilding an old and proud nation of the Russian people. It embraces its Orthodox Christianity, stands up for the family and the fundamental heterosexuality of the human race, recognizes the importance of national boundaries and national security, and is building a resources-based economy with hard money and a minimum of debt. I think Russia knows who it is and has a plan. I don't think the US is or has either today.
The data-quality improvement argument by ball on remains significant. Geo synchronous orbits are very high (30+ k miles) and expensive; a lower maneuverable spy-platform is still 3-5x higher than the ballon elevation (~50-55mi up) and very expensive. Lower = equivalent or better resolution at cheaper cost. And access to 'unique' signals and novel experiments. Lots to ponder with many consequences (known and unknown), but by itself not a trivial thing
Are you in favor of shooting down satellites, balloons, ...? Where do you draw lines, and what's the rationale? International law on where space begins doesn't seem to be the true rationale, since the US has no compunction about violating international law in other situations.
Dear Mark - I get you are treating this as the very serious topic it represents (the connected threads on this comment bundle are tightly wound). No, I'm not saying shoot down spy balloons, knee-jerk or otherwise. Many commentators share your input that lack of clear policy positions are driving many concerns, and among them is a distraction play. Your points about use of force issues (exceptionally important, as they have a might makes right outcome), use of ambiguity and precedent, and what is going on out-of-sight of the Balloon Embroglio make for a difficult topic to progress by comments. The policies are a mess, but have their own utility, the situation is being hijacked for squirrelly convenience by a family of opportunists, what should have been a straightforward situation has exposed manifest clumsiness, weakness, and disingenuousness. For my part, the event has set in motion forces that will run their own course, but in the context of "ballooniness" are trivial. The lightness of thinking surrounding some responses (actions and in-actions have consequences) and missing the distraction-action are far more worrying. For the record, my council would have been to take the Balloon down over the Aleutians as a help to our PRC colleagues, as they'd clearly lost control of their now unpredictable & unstable "whether" balloon, or done .... nothing at all to it and described the thing as an out-of-control experiment, or a cheap stunt whose bait we wouldn't rise to. Cie la vie
I am curious. If intelligence agencies had been monitoring the balloon since soon after it left China and were reasonably convinced that the US was probably not the intended target, why all the hubbub and uproar and why not just let it drift on it’s way and leave China the task of explaining what happened?
We feel compelled to shoot down a balloon that was apparently a non-threat?
Seems to me that this is exactly the kinda dumb crap that could start a war. But hey, what do I know, I’m just a domestic terrorist that voted for DJT and thinks that Hunter Biden should be in jail.
Toward war? Stuart Scheller, the USMC Lt. Col. who criticized senior officers on the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and was tossed from the Marines after they got their pound of flesh from him, believes that war is one way to replenish the military ranks as recruiting is failing to keep the all-volunteer force viable. I'm not so sure American youth would be jumping on the enlistment train in this day and age like they did following 9-11, as confidence in the military seems to reach new lows with each passing poll. His article discusses the problem of keeping mid-career enlisted in the ranks but does not delve into the bigger problem of recruiting new faces who would eventually replace the old faces. He blames military leadership, but the blame goes beyond military leadership to the civilians and politicians running the military in my view. They have sullied the military's reputation through their 'pandemic' vaccine mandates as well as making it a laughingstock with their social engineering efforts. Those who once filled the military ranks, particularly Southerners, see no future in the military after witnessing the events of the past few years.
Yes sir; altho' it reminds me of waiting for the balloon to exit our airspace to take it down. I'm not a big fan of -in int'l affairs of huge concern- 'better late than never'. Best Regards- (WRH)
I'd enjoyed the Swalwell Valentine's balloon from Fang Fang, as well as the "We've been trying to reach you about your car's extended warranty" one. The jokes write themselves these days.
Not to worry. Neocon strategery will always be a step ahead of everyone else. Just ask 'em, they'll tell you. It's fool proof--except if you happen to be a fool.
Mark, you suggested in your post the US is gunning for war with both Russia and China. I hope not and don't think so. Proxy war in Ukraine may be part of a Biden connected agenda. War with China and Russia by US may be part of another, coincidental yet greater agenda but how resistant is Biden et al to such a 'greater agenda'? How 'Chinese-bought' is Biden, Inc? Is his 'group of handlers' at odds with 'greater' Cabal[s]? Vette-gate, the flailing about within the Proxy-war; conflicts (with Biden's claimed agenda in Ukraine) within the "US outward-appearances" of intentions such as Nordstream destruction.. The sealing off from Germany of Russian energy is likely beyond Biden's ability of tactical thought (just how does that help the war effort?). Let's throw in the Fed war with the Euro/IMF Luongo suggests is on-going, which seems in conflict with it all...
I'll add, if the Military pushed off Biden's order to destroy 'The Shiny Balloon' as Biden says, he's not in charge anyways but... if he's compromised favorable to China, he still IS in the Oval Office so power struggles go on. Circling around comes Vette-Gate again... I'd always thought that was about reigning him in and particularly his 2024 ambitions. Maybe it's more?
If nothing else, shooting down satellites will be viewed as acts of war I submit -importantly and significantly- internationally. Competing factions within this 'unknown struggle' may all be hesitant to go there, yet. *(I agree with TexasDude, your forum and provision of differing points of view is valuable-thanks. WRH)
Orbiting, excepting Geo-synchronous, means satellites will 'cross into/above' most of earths terrain. What the satellite is doing may engender it being destroyed/disabled and, in declared war, spy satellites would seem fair game. But in times of undeclared conflict wouldn't such 'shooting down' satellites be consider war and escalation follow? Frankly, "we do it" and the world has followed (spy via satellite).
Our 'culture' says that whatever the good ol' USA does is okay but that dastardly (Russia, but insert your favorite bad guy here) does it then they must be brought to bear, defeated, destroyed, returned to stone-age living standards because... because... well just because the USA says so! If they've paid (Biden, but again fill in with your favorite, sold-out politician's name) enough bucks, then they may be allowed to do the same (current example being The Balloon-fest from China-gate).
Mark asks about cultural/missing the point. Corruption & running from a Morals based set of Law and Order guidelines because of "Power" having corrupted means damn your culture and values. Culture? Generally it reflects values, experiences and the benefits of those values and experiences put into standards by which we live. Not necessarily unwritten rules, but rules never-the-less. Rules that don't apply to the Elite, intelligent betters who try to rule us all. (WRH) *being Mr. gloom and doom lately. Not my best look... my 2 cents worth is overpriced.*
It's my understanding each retains 'ownership' of their orbiting stuff. There's tremendous valuable, good stuff being done in 'low earth orbit' (Starlink, for instance) that wouldn't work 23,500 miles out. The spying being one. I believe if an American Satellite were 'shot down' there'd be a huge uproar (rightly or wrongly, I'll defer on that). In declared war it all changes, including on the High Seas. My apology for intruding in Mark and your discussion, TD. (WRH)
Starlink has been an integral part of NATO operations in support of Ukraine. By any reasonable interpretation, this use has been an act of war. Yet Russia has, by and large, chosen not to treat it as such. No doubt they have reasons, just as we have had reasons for not shooting down balloons.
Gimme a break. It's all spying. We don't shoot down their satellites because we don't want them to shoot down ours. If we could get away with shootdowns of satellites, we'd do it. That's what's obvious.
Unilateral sanctions r illegal & profoundly violate international laws. So far, there r #US and #EU sanctions. These violate the @UN charter that should either be dismantled or respected. There is no legal ground to punish the population as a policy to change the ruler.
It does appear to be about What-ever the West, led by the USA, thinks is good for their goose. The gander response is not being too kind in Ukraine to said 'West'. And it's not got China directly involved there. Reckoning is a bitch and there's much to come for past/ongoing wrongs: question I have will 'we the West' stop the wrongs or learn any lessons deservedly put upon us?
"People get the gov't they deserve" applies to trustworthy elections, however putting 'representatives' into Gov't, as this country has done, that game the system, have gamed the system a long time. It's no accident 90 odd percent of 'representatives' get re-elected. That's a gamed system.
I don't know if 81 million actual votes, legal, got this President elected. But it's discouraging and I think is the intention. Note NO attacks for legitimate issues seem ever to arise against Dems. Further below a commenter lists spies present reps have been involved in yet Stalwell [sp, I almost said Flatulance guy...] served on our nations' intel committee? Etc. etc. etc.
Feeling discouraged is understandable but we must, I must at least, get over that and recommit to pay attention; help good folks get into gov't office albeit likely only locally I may be of value. (I'm from Idaho and doing okay- *there's always room for improvement).
Thanks for putting voice to what I bet a lot of folks, particularly of the sort that'd be reading Mark's blog and postings, will agree with and maybe even rally to a bit. Blessings Sir. (WRH)
G'morning TD, not that settling the Ukraine/Russia conflict is the point, understanding some causes for where it's at is useful, even if I'm only reminding you... Biden stated that a minor incursion would be okay by him (his handlers never have had enough control over his off-script mouth). That sounded like an invitation, not a warning. But the stage was solidly set by the previous Democrat President (Obama) when either by direction, agreement of tolerance of our Intelligence/Security community ran a Coup of leadership in Ukraine. Add the Minsk accord lies (and more) Russian leadership was pressed into, in my opinion, a legitimate concern for their Sovereign national Security. Crying 'World-Domination is Putin's motivation', as is our "leadership's" MO to promote all things Military/Industrial Complex simply led us to where that is. It seems to fit in, if not be part of, a much larger, Cabal-planned program. THAT program has been somewhat exposed as Ukraine doesn't go as 'Planned". Putin is messin' that up with restraint with strength projected well beyond the Ukraine battlefield. Hoping you and your loved ones are safe and doing well sir. (WRH)
10-4 on the value of Mark's commitment with this blog.
Relating to your mention of frustration: I enlisted in our Army in 1972 at 17, a young-ish HS Grad but loving this country. I've a 16 years old grandson who I would discourage from military service today. I say this because it is terribly troubling, to me, that I feel this way. Frankly, it breaks my heart as the world is offering said grandson a bunch of cr@p- from Woke to CRT as if he's cr@p because he's white skinned. It 'used to be' that I'd be honored to see him follow in my foot-steps, so to speak. It (military service) used to be a great way to serve, grow up and become self-capable. The marxist have had much success - way too much success I'm afraid.
Biden, et al, committed the Global Strategic Blunder of the Century in pushing Russia and China into alliance. It's been SOP to partner with one or the other to keep them at odds w/one-another. I believe, at last count, well over 1/2 the earth's populace is now aligning w/China-Russia. Leaving around 1.2 Billion remaining in the King-Dollar world. (The Bi-Polar financial world will not be particularly good for King Dollar.)
There are bastions of good, solid people and places remaining here. In almost retiring into Texas but winding up in Idaho, I've seen a few of those places. I'm just a dumb retired truck driver/trans industry guy but I've got eyes and some sense-the good and bad is somewhat evident plus I've been blessed in being given that little bit of sense with some discernment added in...
The coastal elites rule much- but not the heart of this country. I'm looking for answers; paths forward to return (forgive that contrarian point) to the Constitutional Governed Country that WAS great.
Hiding behind 'smart technology' and thinking they're smarter than everybody else in the world that we see in today's US leadership and controllers is a formula for devastation. (What happens when the Chip Manufacturer for our technology shuts down the very 1st thing? - it is in Taiwan after all... along with most other manufactured stuff our military requires coming from China - not very 'smart', I think.) That devastation won't be limited to the progressive elite coastal dwellers: it'll effect us all. Innocence will be no protector should the power go off or radiation rain down. In the latter, my 'investment advice' [of Brass of appropriate caliber] won't make any difference, either. However, if the urbanites seek to invade my neighborhood, said investment may be the best possible, ever. Take care sir! (WRH)
Jan 20, 2023According to Treasury International Capital data released by the US Department of Treasury on Wednesday, China decreased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $7.8 billion in November, marking the third consecutive month of selling. With this, China holds about $870 billion worth of US Treasury bonds, the lowest amount since June 2010.
I was listening to someone just the other day who maintained that China's shutdown and reopen were clearly coordinated with economic war in mind. Well, we brought it on.
https://twitter.com/Judgenap/status/1623058616553971713
10:33 minute video by The Duran. Their claim is that Chinese were totally trolling the Americans and got the response they were looking for. YMMV, but I agree that the hysteria has been misguided.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmUDvIj2Vf0
"This will be my last on this."
Thanks. You never once addressed any of my serious points.
While we’re balloon-gazing, Chinese spies are going about their business, unhindered by our “ justice” system. Trump makes the point that Zhou shut down his China Initiative project at DOJ which sought to prosecute and punish Chinese business, academic, tech, medical - saboteurs…another blatant example, if one were needed, of Zhou’s corruption - I wonder if the balloon picked up the massive bar code slapped on the roof of the WH as it cruised overhead…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/02/03/donald-trump-warns-of-chinese-spies-everywhere-in-america/
Everywhere ... including Capitol Hill. Swalwell simply got caught.
Yes
“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap," Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck,
Domain Awareness Gap? An EMP [EDIT, apologies to EMT folks] device or two on similar balloons would devastate this country. A Chinese front of North Korea would neuter any real response, they'd claim they'd protect NK from allegations that rightly weren't true ('cause China would have done it!). The US would pretty much self-destruct in about 3 weeks; our un-educated masses of youth would begin to starve once their phones quit and, if I recall, the 3 days supply of in-stock food was gone. Urban folks would venture into and target rural areas, seeing some folks got light from generators, were eating/drinking/surviving while they couldn't even make a campfire once their Bic ran out of gas. Altho', fire will be readily available in the former urban areas as it'll all get burned down.
Did we see this movie? Fact is, if the 'weather balloons' are not of much interest their payload needn't be large; EMP results are pretty widely know to be more potent a mass-killing weapon than just about everything else. (Edit: not in and of themselves but the results they'll produce). Nukes will get nukes shot back, EMP's not so much... Sleep Well, your Biden Administration is on the Job! Note: all alphabet/gender fluid folks will go to the front of the line 'cause our military is well trained now. Sorry to be so flippant: it's just stunning to have read General VanHerk's comments. It seemed just stupid about the Chinese 'weather balloon', but it's deadly. (WRH) *Aren't I full of fun today. Apologies...
domain awareness gap == at a minimum, a fine excuse to request increased funding from Congress
Hmmm, good point. Create a crisis (I argued a dangerous one) and never let it go to waste! Demand funding to avert such future crisis. Creative Bureaucratic self-expansion... (Hey Bruce, best @ ya. Is the PNW as in Pac NW? WRH)
https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1622692606756155392
from July 2022
https://t.co/zBNp5kX19J
"Another U.S. official said intelligence agencies began tracking the balloon several days ago, not long after it had left China and began its controlled drift toward the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The official said American trackers continued to monitor the balloon as it progressed through Canada toward the continental United States, and were surprised when it crossed over into American airspace."
Actually, I'm pretty sure that Alaska is American airspace and if the balloon had any legitimate purpose, the Chinese could have rung up the American embassy and told someone about it ahead of time. That said, I think the real story here isn't the balloon, which for all I know came from Xi's birthday party. The former Senator from New Jersey needed to make a decision, own it, and then shut up. he logical choices here were 1.) Shoot the damn thing the moment it crossed into US airspace, which includes Alaska or 2.) Say "Look it's just a balloon. Chill." Make the decision and own it. Instead, he let the thing drift a few thousand miles and then shot it down after there was no longer any possible purpose to be served by doing so. Then he complained about being overruled by a ridiculous General who serves at his pleasure.
The balloon may not have been a national security emergency, but if we have one, this is the kind of decision making we can look forward to. And that's a way bigger problem than any balloon.
The US press has the green light to report on anything that will hurt Biden.
Note Moons report left out Alaska. Polar vortex over North West Canada was after Alaska and Japan.
The balloon did make the Biden Administration look like a clown car.
Similar balloons have been reported over India and Philippines by Kanekoa substack. And it flew over Japan.
My theory is it’s China finding out where the limits are. They keep on pushing till they receive pushback. Same modus operandi in the South China Sea.
The Biden Administration did use the distraction to release another Guantanamo Al Queda detainee.
G'Monday Ray,
I wonder if the MSM is beginning to react to the fact of the loss Biden et al is and weighing remaining even a little bit viable as a 'media'. With seeming competitive forces on the generic progressive left squabbling it's hard to choose sides (when, in my opinion, all of the left are losers) while the conservative/right is not even considered as a side to opt for. Also, Biden & clown car is being a bigot against clown cars. At least they're funny/stupid and harmless. As Mark notes, China is testing - lots - including limits 'plus turn-about is fair play' may have something to do with it all. China has stolen so much intellectual property they don't even know which it is anymore. Just use it all. *Plus I bet balloons are cheap and a lot of fun for 'em... (apologies for the silliness, well only a little). Best at ya! (WRH)
"They keep on pushing till they receive pushback."
Who did they learn that MO from?
And why balloons. It's not as if they don't have spy satellites that are way more targeted, don't drift with the prevailing weather systems.
@Mark
Re "They keep on pushing till they receive pushback."
And maybe then some. Isn't it called Brinkmanship?
According to Wikipedia, “Brinkmanship…is the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. The maneuver of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions rather than risk engaging in a conflict that would no longer be beneficial to either side. That might be achieved through diplomatic maneuvers, by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. The tactic occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, contemporary military strategy (by involving the threat of nuclear weapons), terrorism, and high-stakes litigation.
“The term is chiefly associated with US Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, from 1953 to 1956 during the Eisenhower administration. Dulles sought to deter aggression by the Soviet Union by warning that the cost might be massive retaliation against Soviet targets…”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brinkmanship
I think a good argument can be made that Brinkmanship is an integral ingredient of the policy of the neocon element which seems to control the Biden administration. If one posits that Brinkmanship is just a tactic in an overall strategy to control the world through military might, then I think a good argument can be made that Brinkmanship has been an essential element of US foreign policy at least since WWII, the ‘statesmanship’ of John Foster Dulles, and the advent of the Cold War. It didn't end with the fall of the Iron Curtain.
For a fascinating treatment of US foreign policy post-WWII and of the actions and legacy of the Dulles brothers (John Foster and his brother, Allen, the Cold War director of the CIA) read The Devil's Chessboard.
(https://www.amazon.com/Devils-Chessboard-Dulles-Americas-Government/dp/0062276174/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1C5Z0M1C2SFJQ&keywords=devil%27s+chessboard+david+talbot&qid=1675791381&sprefix=devil%27s+chessboard%2Caps%2C150&sr=8-1) .
Today's neocons have nothing on the Dulles brothers, except that at the time we didn't know the half of what the Dulles brothers were up to.
All very true. And it can work. Until someone who's loaded for bear calls your bluff. Putin spent two decades--and especially intensively over the last 8 years--getting loaded for bear.
I heard an analysis this morning that satellites fly very high and very fast thus limiting the amount and quality of the data they can gather versus a lower and slower balloon was the gist of it.
I saw an article claiming that the US is preparing high flying balloons, also.
The real issue here is China demanding that they be treated by the US as a near peer.
I would say the real issue here is that we simply have a government we cannot trust and a foreign policy we cannot understand. And to the extent it is understandable, it is driving the American people apart.
No, they can't explain the Chinese balloon. They can't explain whether they were tracking it when it drifted over Alaska and they can't explain its purpose. They can't explain why it crossed the entire North American continent before they shot it down.
But they can't explain any aspect of our China policy in any convincing way. Is China our No.1 existential threat or our No.1 trading partner (measured by imports) without whose manufacturing output the United States could simply not function? How do we marry these polar extremes in a rational foreign policy?
What is our Taiwan policy? Is Taiwan really an independent republic or, as the US has acknowledged for decades, an inseparable part of China's territory. Is the Chinese Communist Party goal of the complete reunification of China an existential threat to the United States which would justify war with China? How and where would the US fight a war with China?
They can't explain our Ukraine policy. Is Ukraine a capitalist, freedom-loving, democratic nation begging for our help in joining the capitalist, freedom-loving, democratic community of Western nations? Or is Ukraine the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe dominated by a naziesque military and authoritarian government which represses basic freedoms and has been waging civil war on its Russian-speaking population for years?
They can't explain our Russia policy. Is Russia an existential threat and satanic evil led by an authoritarian madman who must be destroyed by any and all means possible? Or is Russia a sovereign and independent nation clearly entitled to look after its own economic interests and security concerns (just as we do)? Did Russia unilaterally invade Ukraine in a naked military exercise to advance its imperialist manifesto? Or was Russia (intentionally?) provoked into a military response after decades of its own reasonable attempts to negotiate limits to NATO's (US-led) eastward military expansion? Who has appeased who?
These questions beg a thousand others. Chief among them is whether the US is the shining City on the Hill seeking to spread enlightened liberal democratic principles among all the peoples of the world for the good of all...or is the US a militaristic superpower bent on world domination to defend its global industrial interests and, not the least, its fiat currency which it has used to finance enormous deficits and without which it would be hard put to finance either its global military expenses or its unaffordable domestic programs?
Like many, I believe the confusion over what the real facts are and what the US's real policies are (as noted above) is masking our own existential crisis as the real truth slowly emerges.
Yes.
By the way, I don't think Russia is wallowing in its own existential crisis. Having thrown off the Communist yoke, and nearly destroyed itself in the anarchic aftermath of Communism, Russia has, for the last 20 years or so, been rediscovering its essential self and rebuilding an old and proud nation of the Russian people. It embraces its Orthodox Christianity, stands up for the family and the fundamental heterosexuality of the human race, recognizes the importance of national boundaries and national security, and is building a resources-based economy with hard money and a minimum of debt. I think Russia knows who it is and has a plan. I don't think the US is or has either today.
The data-quality improvement argument by ball on remains significant. Geo synchronous orbits are very high (30+ k miles) and expensive; a lower maneuverable spy-platform is still 3-5x higher than the ballon elevation (~50-55mi up) and very expensive. Lower = equivalent or better resolution at cheaper cost. And access to 'unique' signals and novel experiments. Lots to ponder with many consequences (known and unknown), but by itself not a trivial thing
Are you in favor of shooting down satellites, balloons, ...? Where do you draw lines, and what's the rationale? International law on where space begins doesn't seem to be the true rationale, since the US has no compunction about violating international law in other situations.
Dear Mark - I get you are treating this as the very serious topic it represents (the connected threads on this comment bundle are tightly wound). No, I'm not saying shoot down spy balloons, knee-jerk or otherwise. Many commentators share your input that lack of clear policy positions are driving many concerns, and among them is a distraction play. Your points about use of force issues (exceptionally important, as they have a might makes right outcome), use of ambiguity and precedent, and what is going on out-of-sight of the Balloon Embroglio make for a difficult topic to progress by comments. The policies are a mess, but have their own utility, the situation is being hijacked for squirrelly convenience by a family of opportunists, what should have been a straightforward situation has exposed manifest clumsiness, weakness, and disingenuousness. For my part, the event has set in motion forces that will run their own course, but in the context of "ballooniness" are trivial. The lightness of thinking surrounding some responses (actions and in-actions have consequences) and missing the distraction-action are far more worrying. For the record, my council would have been to take the Balloon down over the Aleutians as a help to our PRC colleagues, as they'd clearly lost control of their now unpredictable & unstable "whether" balloon, or done .... nothing at all to it and described the thing as an out-of-control experiment, or a cheap stunt whose bait we wouldn't rise to. Cie la vie
ball on ... ballon sigh, auto-speell
I wasn’t able to find that to be the case over the US by China. TIA if you have something on that.
Oh, and the only shiny object that I pay much attention to is my tinfoil hat :-)
I am curious. If intelligence agencies had been monitoring the balloon since soon after it left China and were reasonably convinced that the US was probably not the intended target, why all the hubbub and uproar and why not just let it drift on it’s way and leave China the task of explaining what happened?
We feel compelled to shoot down a balloon that was apparently a non-threat?
Seems to me that this is exactly the kinda dumb crap that could start a war. But hey, what do I know, I’m just a domestic terrorist that voted for DJT and thinks that Hunter Biden should be in jail.
Toward war? Stuart Scheller, the USMC Lt. Col. who criticized senior officers on the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and was tossed from the Marines after they got their pound of flesh from him, believes that war is one way to replenish the military ranks as recruiting is failing to keep the all-volunteer force viable. I'm not so sure American youth would be jumping on the enlistment train in this day and age like they did following 9-11, as confidence in the military seems to reach new lows with each passing poll. His article discusses the problem of keeping mid-career enlisted in the ranks but does not delve into the bigger problem of recruiting new faces who would eventually replace the old faces. He blames military leadership, but the blame goes beyond military leadership to the civilians and politicians running the military in my view. They have sullied the military's reputation through their 'pandemic' vaccine mandates as well as making it a laughingstock with their social engineering efforts. Those who once filled the military ranks, particularly Southerners, see no future in the military after witnessing the events of the past few years.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/02/03/our_all-volunteer_military_force_implodes_879776.html?fbclid=IwAR0W0y12nTB-CHwulX8tc5curUFnjG4DgnwWCy0MfvfmH9U_ILTNyj440CA
Agreed. The US military brand, as also the IC's brand, has been seriously damaged. You don't recover from this kind of damage quickly or easily.
?-if/or/maybe/why not-? Balloon-Gate (dumb, I know) summarily represents the current US leadership. (WRH)
https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/02/top-german-investigator-no-proof-of-russian-involvement-in-nord-stream-pipeline-blasts/
Germany has at last concluded Russia did not blow the Nordstream up! Now, who dunnit?
Our (US) leadership is a total failure but what does that make Germany's?
Germany's new openness about this is important going forward. The German public, if they didn't get it before, should now.
Yes sir; altho' it reminds me of waiting for the balloon to exit our airspace to take it down. I'm not a big fan of -in int'l affairs of huge concern- 'better late than never'. Best Regards- (WRH)
Climate change... Who'dathunkit?
The best part of this are all the memes floating around the internet on Twitter, Facebook, etc.
I'd enjoyed the Swalwell Valentine's balloon from Fang Fang, as well as the "We've been trying to reach you about your car's extended warranty" one. The jokes write themselves these days.
The Japanese film poster?
https://babylonbee.com/news/us-vows-to-shoot-down-chinese-spy-balloon-the-second-it-crosses-into-ukraine?utm_source=The%20Babylon%20Bee%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email
Ya gotta give the BabylonBee credit; funny and painfully ironic. (WRH)
...and the Chinese (and the rest of BRICs and SCO, as well as OPEC+) are funding our trade deficit. What happens when they don't?
Not to worry. Neocon strategery will always be a step ahead of everyone else. Just ask 'em, they'll tell you. It's fool proof--except if you happen to be a fool.
"That’s cultural."
So is our system.
You're missing the point.
When do we start shooting down satellites? I raised that early on and you didn't address that.
Mark, you suggested in your post the US is gunning for war with both Russia and China. I hope not and don't think so. Proxy war in Ukraine may be part of a Biden connected agenda. War with China and Russia by US may be part of another, coincidental yet greater agenda but how resistant is Biden et al to such a 'greater agenda'? How 'Chinese-bought' is Biden, Inc? Is his 'group of handlers' at odds with 'greater' Cabal[s]? Vette-gate, the flailing about within the Proxy-war; conflicts (with Biden's claimed agenda in Ukraine) within the "US outward-appearances" of intentions such as Nordstream destruction.. The sealing off from Germany of Russian energy is likely beyond Biden's ability of tactical thought (just how does that help the war effort?). Let's throw in the Fed war with the Euro/IMF Luongo suggests is on-going, which seems in conflict with it all...
I'll add, if the Military pushed off Biden's order to destroy 'The Shiny Balloon' as Biden says, he's not in charge anyways but... if he's compromised favorable to China, he still IS in the Oval Office so power struggles go on. Circling around comes Vette-Gate again... I'd always thought that was about reigning him in and particularly his 2024 ambitions. Maybe it's more?
If nothing else, shooting down satellites will be viewed as acts of war I submit -importantly and significantly- internationally. Competing factions within this 'unknown struggle' may all be hesitant to go there, yet. *(I agree with TexasDude, your forum and provision of differing points of view is valuable-thanks. WRH)
Td (and Mr. Wauck):
Orbiting, excepting Geo-synchronous, means satellites will 'cross into/above' most of earths terrain. What the satellite is doing may engender it being destroyed/disabled and, in declared war, spy satellites would seem fair game. But in times of undeclared conflict wouldn't such 'shooting down' satellites be consider war and escalation follow? Frankly, "we do it" and the world has followed (spy via satellite).
Our 'culture' says that whatever the good ol' USA does is okay but that dastardly (Russia, but insert your favorite bad guy here) does it then they must be brought to bear, defeated, destroyed, returned to stone-age living standards because... because... well just because the USA says so! If they've paid (Biden, but again fill in with your favorite, sold-out politician's name) enough bucks, then they may be allowed to do the same (current example being The Balloon-fest from China-gate).
Mark asks about cultural/missing the point. Corruption & running from a Morals based set of Law and Order guidelines because of "Power" having corrupted means damn your culture and values. Culture? Generally it reflects values, experiences and the benefits of those values and experiences put into standards by which we live. Not necessarily unwritten rules, but rules never-the-less. Rules that don't apply to the Elite, intelligent betters who try to rule us all. (WRH) *being Mr. gloom and doom lately. Not my best look... my 2 cents worth is overpriced.*
It's my understanding each retains 'ownership' of their orbiting stuff. There's tremendous valuable, good stuff being done in 'low earth orbit' (Starlink, for instance) that wouldn't work 23,500 miles out. The spying being one. I believe if an American Satellite were 'shot down' there'd be a huge uproar (rightly or wrongly, I'll defer on that). In declared war it all changes, including on the High Seas. My apology for intruding in Mark and your discussion, TD. (WRH)
Starlink has been an integral part of NATO operations in support of Ukraine. By any reasonable interpretation, this use has been an act of war. Yet Russia has, by and large, chosen not to treat it as such. No doubt they have reasons, just as we have had reasons for not shooting down balloons.
Gimme a break. It's all spying. We don't shoot down their satellites because we don't want them to shoot down ours. If we could get away with shootdowns of satellites, we'd do it. That's what's obvious.
Repeat: It's not about int'l law:
Re earthquakes and sanctions on Syria:
Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
Unilateral sanctions r illegal & profoundly violate international laws. So far, there r #US and #EU sanctions. These violate the @UN charter that should either be dismantled or respected. There is no legal ground to punish the population as a policy to change the ruler.
It does appear to be about What-ever the West, led by the USA, thinks is good for their goose. The gander response is not being too kind in Ukraine to said 'West'. And it's not got China directly involved there. Reckoning is a bitch and there's much to come for past/ongoing wrongs: question I have will 'we the West' stop the wrongs or learn any lessons deservedly put upon us?
TD: Sir, you are spot on.
"People get the gov't they deserve" applies to trustworthy elections, however putting 'representatives' into Gov't, as this country has done, that game the system, have gamed the system a long time. It's no accident 90 odd percent of 'representatives' get re-elected. That's a gamed system.
I don't know if 81 million actual votes, legal, got this President elected. But it's discouraging and I think is the intention. Note NO attacks for legitimate issues seem ever to arise against Dems. Further below a commenter lists spies present reps have been involved in yet Stalwell [sp, I almost said Flatulance guy...] served on our nations' intel committee? Etc. etc. etc.
Feeling discouraged is understandable but we must, I must at least, get over that and recommit to pay attention; help good folks get into gov't office albeit likely only locally I may be of value. (I'm from Idaho and doing okay- *there's always room for improvement).
Thanks for putting voice to what I bet a lot of folks, particularly of the sort that'd be reading Mark's blog and postings, will agree with and maybe even rally to a bit. Blessings Sir. (WRH)
G'morning TD, not that settling the Ukraine/Russia conflict is the point, understanding some causes for where it's at is useful, even if I'm only reminding you... Biden stated that a minor incursion would be okay by him (his handlers never have had enough control over his off-script mouth). That sounded like an invitation, not a warning. But the stage was solidly set by the previous Democrat President (Obama) when either by direction, agreement of tolerance of our Intelligence/Security community ran a Coup of leadership in Ukraine. Add the Minsk accord lies (and more) Russian leadership was pressed into, in my opinion, a legitimate concern for their Sovereign national Security. Crying 'World-Domination is Putin's motivation', as is our "leadership's" MO to promote all things Military/Industrial Complex simply led us to where that is. It seems to fit in, if not be part of, a much larger, Cabal-planned program. THAT program has been somewhat exposed as Ukraine doesn't go as 'Planned". Putin is messin' that up with restraint with strength projected well beyond the Ukraine battlefield. Hoping you and your loved ones are safe and doing well sir. (WRH)
10-4 on the value of Mark's commitment with this blog.
Relating to your mention of frustration: I enlisted in our Army in 1972 at 17, a young-ish HS Grad but loving this country. I've a 16 years old grandson who I would discourage from military service today. I say this because it is terribly troubling, to me, that I feel this way. Frankly, it breaks my heart as the world is offering said grandson a bunch of cr@p- from Woke to CRT as if he's cr@p because he's white skinned. It 'used to be' that I'd be honored to see him follow in my foot-steps, so to speak. It (military service) used to be a great way to serve, grow up and become self-capable. The marxist have had much success - way too much success I'm afraid.
Biden, et al, committed the Global Strategic Blunder of the Century in pushing Russia and China into alliance. It's been SOP to partner with one or the other to keep them at odds w/one-another. I believe, at last count, well over 1/2 the earth's populace is now aligning w/China-Russia. Leaving around 1.2 Billion remaining in the King-Dollar world. (The Bi-Polar financial world will not be particularly good for King Dollar.)
There are bastions of good, solid people and places remaining here. In almost retiring into Texas but winding up in Idaho, I've seen a few of those places. I'm just a dumb retired truck driver/trans industry guy but I've got eyes and some sense-the good and bad is somewhat evident plus I've been blessed in being given that little bit of sense with some discernment added in...
The coastal elites rule much- but not the heart of this country. I'm looking for answers; paths forward to return (forgive that contrarian point) to the Constitutional Governed Country that WAS great.
Hiding behind 'smart technology' and thinking they're smarter than everybody else in the world that we see in today's US leadership and controllers is a formula for devastation. (What happens when the Chip Manufacturer for our technology shuts down the very 1st thing? - it is in Taiwan after all... along with most other manufactured stuff our military requires coming from China - not very 'smart', I think.) That devastation won't be limited to the progressive elite coastal dwellers: it'll effect us all. Innocence will be no protector should the power go off or radiation rain down. In the latter, my 'investment advice' [of Brass of appropriate caliber] won't make any difference, either. However, if the urbanites seek to invade my neighborhood, said investment may be the best possible, ever. Take care sir! (WRH)
Jan 20, 2023According to Treasury International Capital data released by the US Department of Treasury on Wednesday, China decreased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $7.8 billion in November, marking the third consecutive month of selling. With this, China holds about $870 billion worth of US Treasury bonds, the lowest amount since June 2010.
I was listening to someone just the other day who maintained that China's shutdown and reopen were clearly coordinated with economic war in mind. Well, we brought it on.