Crooke: US Faces Catastrophe in Middle East!

I’ve done a loosish summary/transcript of an interview that Alastair Crooke did with Dimitri Simes, Jr. just two days or so ago. The interview reprises some basic Crooke themes—the divided nature of Israeli society and politics—but it goes further. Some of Crooke’s contentions may even take readers by surprise. So, I’ll preface this transcript with information about Crooke from Wikipedia. You’ll see that Crook, a 30 year MI6 agent, has had vast experience in the Middle East and is well positioned to provide an informed opinion.

Crooke started his career in London banking for a few years.^[6]

Crooke later worked for nearly 30 years in the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)^[8] under diplomatic cover in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East. His early work included helping provide weapons to jihadists fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and assisting in the Northern Ireland peace process.^[6][9]

In 1997, he became a security adviser to the EU special envoy to the Middle East, and operating out of the British Embassy in Tel Aviv was involved in British attempts to draw Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian groups into the political process.^[10] He was involved in negotiations to end the Israeli army's siege of Yasser Arafat's compound in Ramallah and the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. He assisted the negotiation of several local truces between the Israelis and Palestinians during the early 2000s. Crooke had good contacts with the Israeli military and intelligence services.^[10]

He was a member of the Mitchell Committee into the causes of the Second Intifada in 2000.^[3][11]

In 2001, British ambassador to Israel Francis Cornish described him as "a person who worked with the security apparatuses of both sides. He went into action after they stopped trusting each other and developed a special skill to persuade them of the logic of things and to bridge the lack of confidence between them." He had a central role in establishing a Hamas ceasefire in 2002.^[10]

His MI6 background was exposed by an Israeli newspaper in 2002.^[9]

In September 2003, he was instructed to leave the Middle East, against his wishes, because of "personal security reasons" with a British embassy spokesman saying "We do think he's done a really difficult job in difficult conditions and has been outstanding at doing it."

So here is Crooke. I’ve added just a few explanatory notes and links.

Israel-Palestine War: US Faces Catastrophe in Middle East!

The overall context for the initiation of Hamas' Al Aqsa Flood operation is that Israeli politics have been completely divided into two opposing views that are almost equally weighted. They disagree about Israel's future, about it's history, and they fundamentally disagree on what it is to be Jewish. Added to this is that the two sides are divided, broadly on ethnic grounds: one side is broadly Mizrahi--who come from the Muslim world--while the other is broadly Ashkenazi--European, liberal, secular. The Mizrahi have always been Israel's underclass of Jews, but now they are wielding real political clout--the Supreme Court is the last (Ashkenazi) holdout institution against the surging power influence of the Mizhrahi over government policy.

The tables have been turned. The Mizrahi have an agenda, and they're intent on implementing it. They have ministers in Netanyahu's government. They have two key commitments:

One is to rebuild the (Jewish) Temple on ‘Temple Mount’ (Haram al-Shariff). They have a broad commitment to do this from the government as a whole. Recent years have seen an escalating series of provocations against Al Aqsa by the settler movement.

Just to be clear, building the Third Temple would entail demolishing Al-Aqsa.

The second overriding commitment is to the founding of "Israel", on the "Land of Israel", presumably under Jewish law, Halakha. And again, to be clear, this would entail removing Palestinians from the West Bank by one means or another. This process has been ongoing for many years.

This means that this double development poses an existential threat to Palestinians.

On Thursday morning (two days preceding Al-Aqsa Flood), more than 800 settlers stormed the Mosque Compound, under the full protection of Israeli forces. The drumbeat of such provocations is rising.

This is nothing new. The First Intifada was triggered by (then) PM Sharon making a provocative visit into the mosque. Even then, it was clear that Sharon intended the visit to fuel the fire of Religious nationalism. At that time, the Temple Mount Movement was a minnow; today it has ministers in Cabinet and in key security positions -- and has promised its followers to build the ‘Third Temple’.

Two years ago, a missile campaign was unleashed from Gaza on "Tel Aviv" in response to the Temple Mount Movement’s religious zealotry and invasion of Al-Aqsa mosque.

The rallying cry was not for Hamas; it was not for Palestinian nationalism. It was for Al-Aqsa -- an icon that goes to the heart of what it is to be Muslim (Sunni or Shi’a). It was a cry that resonated across the entire Islamic sphere.

Then last Thursday a large group of settlers once again invaded Al Aqsa, with the protection of the Israeli security forces. This was the pretext for Hamas to launch what it's been preparing.

Ben Gvir, the minister for national security, has been adamant in declaring that "The Temple Mount is ours!" A few weeks ago Netanyahu's entire cabinet held their cabinet meeting in the tunnels immediately below Al Aqsa--a declaration that the entire Temple Mount belongs to Israel.

Earlier this year former defense minister Moshe Ya'alon--who had himself described Palestinians as a "cancer"--stated that Jewish radicals want a wider war in the Middle East. These "radicals" are a coalition of the settlers and the national religious groups. All of this recalls to Palestinians the Nakba, that a second Nakba is in the works. The radicals have been working on this, step by step, and they have openly stated that the first step is to get rid of or transform the Supreme Court. The Palestinians see this happening now, as do secular Israelis. An emergency will probably be needed for implementing this plan. Hamas' operation is about preventing this.

The Israeli government is enraged and is looking to take revenge. A land invasion of Gaza, even by the 80-100k troops being prepared, could be a disaster. It could also cross a Hezbollah red line. This could open a northern front. Already the Israelis have been bombarding areas in Lebanon. It looks like a course for escalation. A former Israeli security adviser who has normally been a voice of reason is now saying, 'We have to move to a humanitarian disaster in Gaza so great that it changes the paradigm.' That's what's being planned. Netanyahu has told Biden, 'It has to happen.' But Hamas undoubtedly knew the Pavlovian reaction of Israel and have been preparing. This urban setting is perhaps the worst possible setting for such fighting. This could last for a long time.

It will be costly for Israel, trying to eradicate the bunkers and tunnels--which Hamas has built with help from others in the Middle East. Video of this will work against Israel.

Of great concern is that Yedioth Ahronoth (largest circulation Israeli newspaper) is reporting that a French diplomat has passed a message to Hezbollah stating that if Hezbollah were to open a front then Israel--with American support--will attack Damascus and take out Assad and the entire Syrian leadership. It suggests that the US carrier group would be in a position to accomplish this. This is to deter Hezbollah.

A casualty of all this is the US scheme to reconcile Israel with the Arab countries in a grand anti-Iranian coalition. That dream is dead. In fact, the US is now quite close to getting embroiled in a new Middle East war, and the terms for the future events will be dictated by Israeli reactions or overreactions. Overreaction could put Israel at existential risk. It's not clear that the White House understands this. The rhetoric coming out of officials in Washington--calling Hamas names--is a bad look that could lead to escalation that the US really doesn't want.

Right now the situation in the north is reminiscent of 2006, which led to full scale war. Israeli security officials, while admitting that Hamas caught them off guard, continue to maintain that Israel has the best military in the Middle East. [Crooke laughs]. That's the public, propaganda line. Having seen Israel's forces up close, this just isn't the case. In 2006 they lost the war. Hezbollah actually may have a technological advantage. In 2006 Hezbollah was intercepting ciphered military communications. The Israeli army was disorganized, and in 2023 Israeli's military imploded when surprised by Hamas. The shift to AI has not been a success--not for NATO in Ukraine and not for Israel. You end up with a jumble of information that's unsorted by any human understanding. It misses the human dimension that is so crucial.

Expect Hezbollah to have some surprises ready. Even Hamas managed that. This could put a lot of pressure on the US, if things go badly for Israel. The US doesn't want war with Iran, because such a war could imperil the existence of Israel. Thus, US officials have clearly stated that they don't believe Iran was involved in the Hamas operation. The difficulty is that at this point it's difficult to see a basis for negotiations. That would mean big changes in Israel, which would be culturally and psychologically difficult. The refusal of the West to recognize any legitimate interests beyond their own is part of the problem.