Russia analyst Clint Ehrlich presents, in my view, a cogent account of where Russia finds itself today. The background to what Ehrlich says is that we are hearing now of direct US supply of deadly munitions to Ukraine—mostly MANPADs (shoulder launched air defense missiles) and anti-tank weaponry (possibly more Javelin missiles). Major weapons systems will not be provided because they cannot be provided. Provision of capable weapons systems of this sort will prolong Ukrainian resistance and increase Russian losses—it will not change the outcome and will lead to possibly horrific devastation. That will be used as a propaganda victory for the New World Order: Russians are barbarians. The reality, of course, will be a cynical use of Ukrainian lives for a propaganda victory. Think I’m exaggerating the inhumanity of US strategy? Believe David Goldman, if you prefer:
Yes, it is a crazy gamble, made by people who are gambling with the lives and welfare of pretty much the entire world. Does that sound crazy to you, too?
Another effect of this limited resupply of munitions will likely be that the Ukrainian side will not negotiate an end to the conflict in the near term. It seems likely at this point that the Ukrainian government is now located in Poland—negotiations are being conducted at the Belarus - Poland border and the Ukrainian reps departed into Poland rather than into Ukraine. The further implication is that when the Ukrainian reps depart for consultations, what happens is that they get their directions from the US. Russia knows this. Russia, Ehrlich argues, is very unlikely to accept any compromise solution in this situation. Proof of this has not been long in coming:
Ehrlich brings up another significant point of Russian grievance against the US, as well—one which plays into the Ukraine endgame. That point is US support for Chechens against Russia. To suggest that Americans would react differently if Russia supported groups that launched terror assaults such as the Beslan School Massacre would considerably understate the matter. This support of Chechens is more or less of a piece with attempted coups in former Soviet republics—Belarus, Kazakhstand, Ukraine. Russian knowledge of all this will stiffen their resolve to see this war through to a decisive conclusion.
Amid all the fake stories of Ukrainian successes, South Front has an interesting article today that illustrates Russian tactics:
The Russian military has been actively using aerial targets as decoys to test and trick the air defense forces of Ukraine.
On March 2, Ukrainian forces shared footage showing what they claimed to be a Russian “drone” that was shot down by their air defenses. However, the object was in fact an E95M aerial target.
The E95M was developed by Russia’s Eniks to provide combat training for troops as well as to test air defense systems. The target simulates maneuverable targets such as unmanned aerial vehicles, glided guided aerial bombs, cruise missiles as well as fighter jets and helicopters.
...
The Russian use of aerial target like the E95M as decoys explains the countless false shot down claims which were made by Ukrainian forces since the start of the Russian special military operation in the country on February 24. For example, on February 27 Kiev falsely claimed downing two Russian Il-76 transport planes.
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The use of aerial decoys is not only meant to deplete Ukrainian air defense forces, but also to expose their locations and means in order to destroy them with precision fire from a stand-off distance.
As of March 3, the Russian military claims to have destroyed 39 S-300, Buk-M1 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems as well as 52 radar stations of Ukrainian forces.
SITREP - Day 8: Most analysts think the odds of a ceasefire are increasing in Ukraine.
They have it exactly backwards.
We've actually moved closer to the nightmare scenario where Kiev is simply leveled.
The Russian military is still in a strategic position to win the war.
They've already surrounded Azov Battalion at Mariupol, and they're on their way to encircling Ukraine's forces in the Donbas.
If this were a strategy game, you'd *really* want to play as Russia.
The fall of Kherson today, a city of 300k people, will mark a turning point in the war.
The Ukrainian forces barely put up any resistance, and the city was spared.
The message to other cities is clear: Fight and be leveled or surrender and be treated kindly.
It's not just the psychological impact of Kherson's fall that's important though – it's also the geography.
Ukraine is now almost entirely cut off from the Black Sea.
The Russians only have to take Odessa in order to transform Ukraine into a landlocked country.
The goal of the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas will now be to "punch out of" the attempted RU encirclement.
But even if they can split the blades of the near pincer, the Russians can spring a *second* and *third* pincer on them.
They have multiple paths to bisect the country.
If the Russians had accomplished all of this quickly and with low casualties, maybe they would be in a mood to negotiate.
But the humiliating struggles they've experienced, which have been broadcast around the world, change the political calculus.
Russia no longer has the option of looking like a magnanimous victor by accepting a negotiated ceasefire.
If President Putin accepts something like a conditional surrender that preserves the integrity of the Ukrainian government, that will be spun as a defeat for Russia.
It may sound paradoxical from the outside, but Russia's *tactical defeats* now make *strategic victory* imperative.
To preserve Russia's aspiration to be a superpower, there must be no doubt at the end of the war who the victor was.
It must be Russia. By a crushing margin.
It's critical to remember the domestic messaging that was used to introduce this conflict to the Russian people.
President Putin framed it as the sequel to the Second World War – a new struggle against Fascism on Russia's border, which threatened the country's very existence.
We should expect the Russian state to use a quantity of force proportionate to the claimed threat from Ukraine.
Many analysts are missing this. They are the same people who missed that Russia would invade, because they ignored President Putin's words then too.
It is irrelevant that, to outside observers, Ukraine is not a neo-Nazi state.
That is the *thesis of the conflict* from President Putin's perspective.
To understand what Putin will do, you have to look at the war through through his eyes – even if his vision is distorted.
How would you bring a neo-Nazi state to heel if your initial attempts at an invasion backed by precision strikes stalled?
You would escalate the use of force. Instead of surgical attacks, you would turn to borderline strategic weapons.
That is what Russia is doing.
We've seen the use of MLRS rocket artillery, a horrifying platform that kills indiscriminately within a large target area.
Ukrainian forces survived so long in the early days of the war because Russia was reluctant to use heavy artillery. No longer.
Similarly, we've seen Russian forces using a combination of artillery and heavy airstrikes in Kharkov.
Large sections of the city appear to have been leveled.
We have to pray that civilians were already evacuated – or the casualties will be immense.
The million dollar question is whether the Russians will use the same heavy-handed tactics in Kiev.
There's actually a simple answer: They don't want to, but they will if they have to.
Laying siege to a city of 3 million could be the ugliest part of the war.
This raises a troubling moral quandary: Are we really helping the Ukrainians by encouraging them to fight?
I am awed by their bravery. It's fun to cheer on an underdog.
But if the end result is watching it get viciously torn to pieces, was it really worth it?
There's a real risk that we're selling the Ukrainians a false bill of goods– just like we did when we promised them NATO membership.
They keep asking for a NATO no-fly zone because they know they can't win without it.
We aren't going to give it to them. Where's that leave us?
The end result of all of our cheering and all of our weapons deliveries could be a repeat of the Second Chechen War.
The Chechens fought even harder than the Ukrainians.
They inflicted horrifying losses on the Russian army, against all odds.
What did it get them? A Russian siege of their capital that laid it to waste.
This was Grozny after the war. This is what so much Chechen bravery achieved.
If the Ukrainians keep fighting hard, it's what will happen to Kiev. All while we cheer them on from the sidelines.
• • •
And just a bit more big picture context. Did you vote for this? Our country has been hijacked by crazies—we knew that already, but not many understood how deep the crazy goes:
“It is time for the US nuclear weapons in Europe to return back to America.” The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov summed up the Russian roadmap beyond Ukraine. This means that the Russian battle has begun because America has strategic nuclear forces in NATO bases spread across the European continent, including Turkey (which possesses fifty nuclear bombs at the Incirlik base under US ‘control’). Seemingly, the options ahead are much more defiant and complex than a « simple » war on Ukraine because the countries that Russia said should be denuclearised are NATO members.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was created in 1949 by the US, Canada and other European countries to provide security against the Soviet Union and combat communism. In reaction to the integration of West Germany into NATO in 1955, the Warsaw Pact (the Soviet Union, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) was created. Following the end of the Cold War between the Soviets and the US, the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, but NATO was not. Several former Warsaw Pact members joined NATO after March 1999, notwithstanding the promises (which were neither treaties nor signed agreements) given by western officials, mainly the US, that NATO won’t expand “one inch eastward”.
Russia spent the last two decades building its strength and believed itself ready to confront the US in asking it to drop its spread of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union European countries. …
An excellent summary of the current state of things and where this is headed. Thanks, Mark!
People who say that Putin would not have done this if Trump were President are right, but for the wrong reasons. Trump wanted strategic partnership with Russia to counter China. He also showed signs that he wasn’t sold on continuing to fund the money pit known as NATO. No doubt he would have made the sensible diplomatic moves: guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO and push Ukraine to follow through on obligations to make peace with its eastern, ethnic Russian population.
What we got instead was the exact opposite, as if Washington wanted this war. What a debacle, for which we will all pay for years to come. God help us!
What Putin has won so far:
1. Encircled major amounts of the Ukranian Army
2. Showed that NATO is impotent
3. Revealed the Financial Weapons of the West
4. Increased anti Russian feelings in Europe to a hysterical level, that will help his support at home, and reduce Western Influence.
5. Showed non Western Countries will not go along with the sanctions including India, Pakistan, China, and Saudi Arabia.
6. Showed the West can't be trusted financially, and can and will seize assets if they disagree with your politics.
7. Brought up issue that Biden was elected fraudently.
8. Show cased the tools of the Tech Giants
9. Showed limitations of economic sanction weapon.
An excellent summary of the current state of things and where this is headed. Thanks, Mark!
People who say that Putin would not have done this if Trump were President are right, but for the wrong reasons. Trump wanted strategic partnership with Russia to counter China. He also showed signs that he wasn’t sold on continuing to fund the money pit known as NATO. No doubt he would have made the sensible diplomatic moves: guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO and push Ukraine to follow through on obligations to make peace with its eastern, ethnic Russian population.
What we got instead was the exact opposite, as if Washington wanted this war. What a debacle, for which we will all pay for years to come. God help us!