"I think Mr Trump was not elected to start a new war. He was elected in response to grave dissatisfaction by the American people with the existing situation in our country, and if he can't fix that he's not going to last very long as a legitimate leader of our nation."
I can't say with any certainty that Trump's 'mocking' approach to Putin will succeed, but as I've said before, I don't think Putin is terribly troubled by it.
Interestingly, Col Macgregor and Danny Davis (neither, I would like to say, a naïf) spoke extensively this am about Trump's real goals and negotiating strategy. Macgregor seems to still have a fair amount of confidence that Trump is actually pursuing a realistic settlement.
I listened to that convo and found Macgregor's affirmations largely unpersuasive, but now fully alligned with the Great Expectations for Trump 2.0. Yes, Trump keeps talking 'bout peace, but a "realistic settlement" would mean actually addressing Putin's threshhold conditions for a ceasefire/negotiations. In this regard, I find Mearsheimer's (and Dugin's) latest prognosis far more realistic. https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/jjm-vs-alexander-dugin
Before I watch, I'll just comment, FWIW, that its interesting to me that Macgregor, who served briefly in Trump 1.0 and has been probably the loudest military analyst critic of the Ukraine project over the last few years, doesn't 'seem' to have any traction in Trump 2.0...
Macgregor's statements regarding Trump, as you note, are very reassuring. Especially coming from a guy who completely understands what the Russian position is and what they will require at a minimum. I was also glad to hear Macgregor's insistence that any negotiations must include all of the states bordering Russia as well as Germany. Thanks again.
In the case of Syria we don't have any idea what is going to happen
It may be worthy to first ask who is paying for what and how
For example it appears Israel is now pot committed to control Syria so the US is on the hook
Isreal economy and reserve army probably not able alone so when the airstrikes end
what then money and men may be needed
The airstrikes are easy US pays and provides weapons but the airstrikes seem to be angering the civilian and other Syrians public media I have read seems to indicate the civilians thought get rid of Asaad and everyone will be your friend
I can only imagine Netanyahu inevitably wants and needs additional US Troops in Syria
Noting: while it appears ports and airfields were destroyed by US Israeli bombing I have not read any reports that Russia aircraft nor Russia ships were destroyed so appears at least temporarily that Russia is staying out of it
Trump seems somewhat inclined to sabotage himself.
"President-elect Donald Trump sent a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria after Islamist opposition fighters captured Damascus. He called for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine."
A cease fire while the US/NATO are supplying weapons and aid? The Biden administration is trying to shovel out the dollars to Ukraine as fast as possible before Trump takes office.
It has been said here and elsewhere, ad infinitum, that Putin will not call off the Russian offensive until his preconditions are met. Trump thinks he can fool Putin. He can't and he won't.
Indeed. Imagine Trump actually pulling out of Syria like he wanted to. Clearing the decks for some regional power competition. And then there's Iraqi Kurdistan in the wings, long coveted by Turkey for oil and water. How will Iran and Russia view an expansionist Turkey? Not to mention Israel--in that scenario they'd want the US back, if they ever allowed the US to leave.
Israel is over playing their hand. There will be blowback for this. Turkey will be seen as enabling and abetting the Israeli behavior. Turkey now owns the Syrian mess.
...and seemingly unconcerned about the optics of such overplaying. Israel has declared Golan its own since the early '80s, I believe (and I think we (Trump?) gave recognition), but, again, its the brazen visual for the rest of the ME that won't be forgotten.
Thanks, will definitely check out. Had forgotten about Vzglad. Used to read them for business/markets. They were always very straight-forward in their reporting.
"I think Mr Trump was not elected to start a new war. He was elected in response to grave dissatisfaction by the American people with the existing situation in our country, and if he can't fix that he's not going to last very long as a legitimate leader of our nation."
Amen.
The Zio-Neocons who run DoD want WW III. Good luck with that Trump.
Judging from Trump's latest mocking of Russia's "weakened state," which he attributed to Russia's "bad economy" and his absurd demand for an immediate cease-fire, my money is on a continuing and escalating war by the Hegemon on all fronts. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-tells-putin-agree-immediate-cease-fire-ukraine-after-syrias-assad-ousted
@Zimmer
I can't say with any certainty that Trump's 'mocking' approach to Putin will succeed, but as I've said before, I don't think Putin is terribly troubled by it.
Interestingly, Col Macgregor and Danny Davis (neither, I would like to say, a naïf) spoke extensively this am about Trump's real goals and negotiating strategy. Macgregor seems to still have a fair amount of confidence that Trump is actually pursuing a realistic settlement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2awTg0TYzA&t=135s
I listened to that convo and found Macgregor's affirmations largely unpersuasive, but now fully alligned with the Great Expectations for Trump 2.0. Yes, Trump keeps talking 'bout peace, but a "realistic settlement" would mean actually addressing Putin's threshhold conditions for a ceasefire/negotiations. In this regard, I find Mearsheimer's (and Dugin's) latest prognosis far more realistic. https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/jjm-vs-alexander-dugin
Thanks for the link.
Before I watch, I'll just comment, FWIW, that its interesting to me that Macgregor, who served briefly in Trump 1.0 and has been probably the loudest military analyst critic of the Ukraine project over the last few years, doesn't 'seem' to have any traction in Trump 2.0...
Exactly. And too far a distance from the MAGA ethos might just not be the best thing for business.
Macgregor's statements regarding Trump, as you note, are very reassuring. Especially coming from a guy who completely understands what the Russian position is and what they will require at a minimum. I was also glad to hear Macgregor's insistence that any negotiations must include all of the states bordering Russia as well as Germany. Thanks again.
Thanks for the link!
In the case of Syria we don't have any idea what is going to happen
It may be worthy to first ask who is paying for what and how
For example it appears Israel is now pot committed to control Syria so the US is on the hook
Isreal economy and reserve army probably not able alone so when the airstrikes end
what then money and men may be needed
The airstrikes are easy US pays and provides weapons but the airstrikes seem to be angering the civilian and other Syrians public media I have read seems to indicate the civilians thought get rid of Asaad and everyone will be your friend
I can only imagine Netanyahu inevitably wants and needs additional US Troops in Syria
Noting: while it appears ports and airfields were destroyed by US Israeli bombing I have not read any reports that Russia aircraft nor Russia ships were destroyed so appears at least temporarily that Russia is staying out of it
Trump seems somewhat inclined to sabotage himself.
"President-elect Donald Trump sent a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria after Islamist opposition fighters captured Damascus. He called for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine."
A cease fire while the US/NATO are supplying weapons and aid? The Biden administration is trying to shovel out the dollars to Ukraine as fast as possible before Trump takes office.
He's no fool. He's the same man who armed Ukraine and still brags about it.
Bingo 2.
It has been said here and elsewhere, ad infinitum, that Putin will not call off the Russian offensive until his preconditions are met. Trump thinks he can fool Putin. He can't and he won't.
A belicose Turkey buoyed by its military success in Karabakh and Syria could see it take on the Kurds. An interesting prospect for the US.
NATO v NATO
An interesting scenario for article 5.
Indeed. Imagine Trump actually pulling out of Syria like he wanted to. Clearing the decks for some regional power competition. And then there's Iraqi Kurdistan in the wings, long coveted by Turkey for oil and water. How will Iran and Russia view an expansionist Turkey? Not to mention Israel--in that scenario they'd want the US back, if they ever allowed the US to leave.
"How will Iran and Russia view an expansionist Turkey?"
I am doubtful the US will tolerate an expansionist Türkiye which steps on its toes.
Neocon's 21st century, super duper, whiz bang, achievements, abridged Muslim world edition:
Saddam done away with - "Mission Accomplished", results, chaos, death, destruction, misery, $$$.
Taliban removed - 2 decades later - Taliban restored, after chaos, death, destruction, misery, $$$.
Qaddafi assassinated - "we came, we saw, he died . . . evil cackle" - results, chaos, death, destruction, misery, $$$.
Assad gone into exile, Syria dismembered - ???
I would expect that every state that borders with the former Syria is going to be very busy with chaos, death, destruction, misery, $$$.
Satanyahoo & Erdogan especially should have heeded the warning: Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it !!!
You could break Syria into v1 and v2 because v1 already produced a round of chaos, death, destruction, misery, $$$.
Recall that v1 produced the first really big wave of crazy migration into Europe... before Libya.
What Assad’s overthrow does not change:
- Houthi economic blockade continues
- Israel is more and more hated in Arab world after seizing Syrian territory
- Israel failed to make meaningful progress in Lebanon
- Northern Israel is still perceived as unsafe
- Gaza is requiring huge resources to occupy and is not quelled with no end in site
- Israeli soldiers casualties continue in Gaza
- Israeli public is unhappy with current status
- Israel is still set up for short wars
- Iran’s missile power could devastate Israel
- U.S. is seen as an Israeli accomplice by the Arab street
- Israel is losing the pr campaign outside the West with images from Gaza having a huge impact
- Russian supplied Iranian air defense deters Israeli attacks in Iran
- U.S. forces are soft targets in the middle east.
Bingo.
Its hard to imagine whatever new state emerges in Syria will applaud Israels's genocide and ethnic cleansing...of Arabs...in Palestine.
Israel is over playing their hand. There will be blowback for this. Turkey will be seen as enabling and abetting the Israeli behavior. Turkey now owns the Syrian mess.
Are you sure? Seems they finally won the 2006 war.
"Israel is over playing their hand."
Take it to the bank.
...and seemingly unconcerned about the optics of such overplaying. Israel has declared Golan its own since the early '80s, I believe (and I think we (Trump?) gave recognition), but, again, its the brazen visual for the rest of the ME that won't be forgotten.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/idf-tanks-reach-just-25km-south-damascus-netanyahu-declares-golan-ours-forever
https://m.vz.ru/opinions/2024/12/9/1302373.html
Use google translate.
Thanks, looks interesting. I agree that Arab distrust of Turkey will reach new heights and will drive them toward Iran--not the US.
I wonder…
Could letting Syria fall be an attempt by Iran to cause Israel to further over extend itself?
Thanks, will definitely check out. Had forgotten about Vzglad. Used to read them for business/markets. They were always very straight-forward in their reporting.
https://www.unz.com/runz/ambassador-chas-freeman-on-our-cold-war-against-china/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iran-appears-be-doubling-down-nuclear-route-response-events-syria